SWOD48
SPC AC 240820
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
24/00Z MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH DEPARTURE OF INITIAL TROUGH OFF THE E COAST...NEXT
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY...FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
D4 INTO D5 /SUN SEP 27TH INTO MON SEP 28TH/. AN ASSOCIATED...STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD THROUGH ERN THIRD OF THE NATION...HOWEVER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED OWING TO PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY D7 /WED SEP 30TH/...IN ADVANCE OF NEXT TROUGH
INTENSIFYING OVER THE WRN STATES. THE WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...ENHANCING LEE CYCLONE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE NWD THROUGH THE
PLAINS...SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR TSTMS --SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE-- BY
D8 /THU OCT 1ST/. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT DELINEATION OF AN AREA.
..MEAD.. 09/24/2009
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