Thursday, April 25, 2013

KMAF [260132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 260132
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
832 PM CDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 PM HAIL VAN HORN 31.04N 104.83W
04/25/2013 E0.75 INCH CULBERSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORT FROM CULBERSON CO. SHERIFFS OFFICE


&&

$$

MH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260055
SWODY1
SPC AC 260053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU APR 25 2013

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SOMEWHAT LESS-AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
UNDERWAY OVER CONUS...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. TROUGH NOW
EXTENDING FROM LH-AREA 500-MB LOW SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MOST OF ATLC COAST BY
12Z...EXCEPT FOR NEW ENGLAND. PERTURBATION THAT WAS OFFSHORE SRN CA
YESTERDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY GRADUALLY AS IT
CROSSES AZ. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROCEED ENEWD ACROSS ERN AZ AND
4-CORNERS REGION DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...REACHING CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES BY END OF PERIOD.

AT SFC...WAVY AND GENERALLY QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WAS DRAWN
AT 23Z FROM JUST OFFSHORE SRN NC AND SC THROUGH FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SE
CHS...SWWD ACROSS SRN GA AND CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...N-CENTRAL AND
NWRN GULF OFFSHORE TX COAST.

...NRN OK/SRN KS AREA...
TSTMS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE TO SCATTERED LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WHILE SHIFTING GENERALLY
EWD TO ENEWD ACROSS THIS AREA. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ROOTED IN RELATIVELY MOIST LAYER AROUND
750 MB...BASED ON 00Z FWD/OUN RAOBS AND TIME SERIES OF MODIFIED FCST
SOUNDINGS. OBSERVATIONAL RETURN-FLOW DATA...INCLUDING ANIMATIONS OF
UPSTREAM GPS PW OBS ACROSS TX AND SFC OBS OF MORE MEAGER THAN
PROGGED DEW POINTS...SUGGEST SOME DELAY IN PERIOD OF GREATEST
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 750 J/KG STILL IS
EXPECTED 09Z-12Z...LIMITED IN PART BY LACK OF MORE ROBUST 600-800 MB
LAYER LAPSE RATES. MAINLY...KINEMATIC SUPPORT THROUGH CLOUD-BEARING
LAYER WILL BE WEAK...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ONLY AROUND
20-25 KT IN FCST SOUNDINGS. LATTER FACTOR...ALONG WITH LACK OF BOTH
GREATER BUOYANCY AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT...SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS IS NON-ZERO
BUT TOO SMALL/ISOLATED TO MAINTAIN AOA 5% UNCONDITIONAL LINE.

...FAR W TX...
ISOLATED STG TSTMS...ORIGINATING IN AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND
EARLIER HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN OVER MEX...WILL BE CROSSING RIO
GRANDE AND MAY PERSIST DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS FAR W
TX. RAOBS BRACKETING THIS REGION -- ELP/DRT/MAF AND IN CHIHUAHUA --
APPEAR UNREPRESENTATIVE OF ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING THAT CONVECTION.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD OVER RELATIVELY MOISTURE-DEPRIVED AIR MASS
WITH WHATEVER MLCAPE IS AVAILABLE DECREASING SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER
DARK. HOWEVER...IN MEANTIME...DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS EVIDENT VIA SFC
CHARTS AND MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS MAY FOSTER OCNL GUSTS OR HAIL
APCHG SVR LIMITS FROM MOST INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2013

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KCRP [260002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 260002
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
702 PM CDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM LIGHTNING 2 NW FULTON 28.09N 97.06W
04/25/2013 ARANSAS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

LIGHTNING STRUCK AN OIL TANK NEAR THE ARANSAS COUNTY
AIRPORT ON FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1781. THE LIGHTNING STRIKE
HIT A TANK WITH A SALT WATER AND CRUDE OIL MIX SPARKING A
MAJOR FIRE.


&&

$$

TTINSLEY

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KHNX [252337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 252337
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
436 PM PDT THU APR 25 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0408 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W ROSAMOND 34.85N 118.27W
04/25/2013 M52 MPH KERN CA MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION AS895

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KRNK [252151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 252151
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
551 PM EDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG NARROWS 37.33N 80.82W
04/24/2013 GILES VA PUBLIC

LARGE TREE DOWN IN NARROWS


&&

$$

JVC

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KLIX [252137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLIX 252137
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
436 PM CDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 AM TORNADO 7 NW GEISMER 30.28N 91.11W
04/24/2013 F0 IBERVILLE LA NWS STORM SURVEY

5 TO 10 OAK TREES SNAPPED ALONG LAWRENCE
PARKWAY...DAISY...AND BEEHIVE ST IN ST GABRIEL. NUMERUOS
BRANCHES SNAPPED AND ROOF BLOWN OFF OF A STORAGE SHED.
ESTIAMTED WIND SPEED OF 85MPH...PATH LENGTH 0.25
MILES...WIDTH 75 YARDS.


&&

$$

CBANNAN

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KCHS [252029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252029
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
429 PM EDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM HAIL 3 SSW CAPERS INLET 32.81N 79.72W
04/25/2013 E0.25 INCH CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300222

$$

VB

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KCHS [252023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252023
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
423 PM EDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0354 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE GOOSE CREEK 33.01N 80.00W
04/25/2013 BERKELEY SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

SMALL TREE DOWN ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD AT HENRY BROWN
BLVD AND ISLAND GREEN ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300221

$$

VB

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KCHS [252010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252010
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
410 PM EDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0409 PM HAIL DANIEL ISLAND 32.88N 79.90W
04/25/2013 E0.70 INCH BERKELEY SC TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300220

$$

VB

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KCHS [252009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252009
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 PM EDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0344 PM HAIL 3 SSW LADSON 32.94N 80.12W
04/25/2013 E0.25 INCH DORCHESTER SC TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL FELL FROM 344 PM TO 349 PM.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300219

$$

VB

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KCHS [252001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252001
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 PM EDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0351 PM HAIL 1 SW GOOSE CREEK 32.97N 80.05W
04/25/2013 E0.25 INCH CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300218

$$

VB

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KCHS [252001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252001
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 PM EDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE ARCHDALE 32.93N 80.08W
04/25/2013 M0.97 INCH DORCHESTER SC COCORAHS

TRAINED SPOTTER AND COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTED 0.97
INCHES OF RAIN IN 18 MINUTES.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300217

$$

JRL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251958
SWODY1
SPC AC 251956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU APR 25 2013

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PARTS OF NRN AZ AND SERN UT...
DIABATIC HEATING AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 TO -21 C AT 500
MB/ ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS AZ AT THIS TIME
HAVE RESULTED IN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH/EXIT REGION OF
MIDLEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES FROM HIGH BASED TSTMS. THUS...THE GENERAL TSTM HAS BEEN
EXPANDED WSWWD TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS.

...COASTAL SC...
A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ALONG THE SC COAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SOON MOVE OFFSHORE...NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
WARRANTED.

...PARTS OF NE OK LATE TONIGHT...
THE LATE PERIOD MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT REMAINS ON TRACK.

..PETERS.. 04/25/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT THU APR 25 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL AREAS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AS A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MIGRATE THROUGH LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED IN MOST OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT...ON THE PERIPHERY OF A COLD SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...A STRONG WIND GUST OR
SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ALONG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINAS COAST
SSW INTO NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL LIFT NE FROM SRN CA TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON EWD INTO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

...PARTS OF NE OK LATE TONIGHT...
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED /LESS THAN 750 J/KG MUCAPE/
OVERNIGHT...STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER
06Z AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MOIST
ADVECTION ON INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW PW VALUES TO
APPROACH 1.0 INCH...AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED...MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

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KCHS [251955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 251955
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
355 PM EDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0352 PM HAIL 2 NNE GOOSE CREEK 33.01N 80.02W
04/25/2013 E0.70 INCH BERKELEY SC TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300216

$$

VB

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KCHS [251947]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 251947
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
347 PM EDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0338 PM HAIL 1 W LADSON 32.99N 80.13W
04/25/2013 E1.00 INCH DORCHESTER SC TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300215

$$

VB

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251730
SWODY2
SPC AC 251729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU APR 25 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX
TO THE ARKLATEX...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 2 WITH
STRONGEST WLY MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAINING NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER. MEANWHILE...A MIGRATORY SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ENEWD FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...REACHING
THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO OZARKS REGION BY 12Z SAT. GIVEN RELATIVELY
WEAK UPPER FORCING WITH THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM...THE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING WITH THE TRACK OF AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS KS OR OK
FRI...WITH THIS FEATURE REACHING CENTRAL OR SRN MO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT...DELINEATING THE NWD RETURN OF MOISTURE
WITHIN THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE...WILL ADVANCE
NNEWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TX AND LA AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
RED RIVER ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER INTO CENTRAL/NRN LA BY 27/00Z.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FURTHER NWD PROGRESS FRI NIGHT INTO AR/MID
SOUTH...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OK EXTENDING TO KMAF BY
12Z SAT.

...SRN PLAINS TO ARKLATEX...
ELEVATED STORMS...LIKELY ROOTED AROUND 850 MB...WITHIN A LOW LEVEL
WAA REGIME SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF DAY 2 FROM PARTS OF FAR
CONVECTIVE DETAILS...WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST E/NEWD FRI/FRI NIGHT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS WAA ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ACROSS AR. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE INFLUX OF
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF
STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN EML/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AT THE START OF DAY2...GREATER NWD MOISTURE
RETURN NOT OCCURRING UNTIL FRI SUGGESTS DESTABILIZATION COULD BE
TEMPERED. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS RELATIVELY STRONGER SURFACE HEATING
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN N-NE TX...WHERE A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY COULD BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS...COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
WEAKENING SURFACE BASED INHIBITION. THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALOFT ACROSS SRN OK/N TX TO THE ARKLATEX AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH WWD EXTENT ALONG THE RED RIVER SUGGEST THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS NERN TX AS
DEPICTED IN THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH GREATER SWD EXTENSION. A
50 KT WSWLY MIDLEVEL JET EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FRI
AFTERNOON AND A SWLY LLJ INTO NORTH CENTRAL-NE TX WILL AID IN
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...IF STORMS CAN
BECOME SURFACE BASED...WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NERN TX...GIVEN GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS AREA.

TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...SHOULD PERSIST EWD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
WITHIN A WAA REGIME ALONG A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET.

FARTHER WEST...STORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY N OF THE SWD MOVING COLD
FRONT...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE.

..PETERS.. 04/25/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251608
SWODY1
SPC AC 251606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT THU APR 25 2013

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL AREAS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AS A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MIGRATE THROUGH LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED IN MOST OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT...ON THE PERIPHERY OF A COLD SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...A STRONG WIND GUST OR
SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ALONG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINAS COAST
SSW INTO NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL LIFT NE FROM SRN CA TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON EWD INTO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

...PARTS OF NE OK LATE TONIGHT...
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED /LESS THAN 750 J/KG MUCAPE/
OVERNIGHT...STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER
06Z AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MOIST
ADVECTION ON INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW PW VALUES TO
APPROACH 1.0 INCH...AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED...MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 04/25/2013

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KDMX [251322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 251322
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
822 AM CDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N AUDUBON 41.73N 94.93W
04/24/2013 AUDUBON IA CO-OP OBSERVER

DELAYED REPORT FROM YESTERDAY. SEMI BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY
NORTH OF TOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.


&&

$$

SKOW

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KMQT [251312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 251312
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
912 AM EDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 2 SW TWIN LAKES 46.88N 88.86W
04/25/2013 M2.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

12 AND 24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. LIQUID EQUIVALENT 0.13


&&

$$

KCOOLEY

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KMQT [251257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 251257
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
857 AM EDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 2 E REDRIDGE 47.15N 88.72W
04/25/2013 E2.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

12 AND 24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. LIQUID EQUIVALENT 0.16


&&

$$

KCOOLEY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251245
SWODY1
SPC AC 251243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT THU APR 25 2013

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL PROGRESS E TO THE NEW ENG CST BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHEARS NNE INTO
LABRADOR...AND UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM LK MI TO UPSTATE NY.
WEAK SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEST...WITH NRN BAJA UPR LOW
EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND SHEAR ENE INTO CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE
SRN GRT BASIN...SRN RCKYS...AND SRN PLNS. FARTHER S...SUBTROPICAL
JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO.

AT LWR LVLS...COOL SFC HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE CAROLINAS CST THIS
AFTN...AND SRN PART OF THE SAME BOUNDARY DISSIPATES OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. WHILE SVR WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THIS
PERIOD...SEVERAL AREAS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS.

...CNTRL/SRN RCKYS INTO CNTRL/SRN PLNS TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI...
SFC HEATING AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM DEAMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH
SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD DIURNAL STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND
NRN MN. MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR FARTHER S ACROSS FAR W TX. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E INTO DEVELOPING 700 MB WAA
PATTERN OVER KS AND FAR NRN OK TNGT/EARLY FRI. WHILE SOME OF THESE
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...MOISTURE LIKELY WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO
SUPPORT A SUSTAINED SVR RISK.

A BIT FARTHER S..SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED WAA STORMS MAY
ARISE OVER CNTRL AND ERN OK TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CURRENT
OF RICHER MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1 INCH/ SPREADS NWD INTO ZONE OF
STRENGTHENING DCVA/UPR DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF SRN STREAM TROUGH.
COUPLED WITH MODERATE CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP COULD YIELD A STORM
OR TWO WITH HAIL APPROACHING OR PERHAPS EXCEEDING SVR LIMITS.

...NRN FL TO CSTL CAROLINAS THIS AFTN...
ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS MAY FORM WITH AFTN HEATING ALONG WEAKLY
CONVERGENT COLD FRONT FROM NRN FL TO CSTL SC/NC. WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD LIMIT STORM STRENGTH...DESPITE PRESENCE OF APPRECIABLE
MID/UPR LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SRN END OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO CANADA. WHILE A STORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS
CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT...AND MORE CONCENTRATED/SUSTAINED
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE...THE SVR RISK OVER LAND APPEARS
LOW.

...LWR GRT LKS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...
SFC HEATING AND APPROACH OF LK MI UPR TROUGH LIKELY WILL LEAD TO
LOW-TOPPED DIURNAL CONVECTION/SCTD TSTMS OVER THE LWR GRT
LKS...DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL/DRY SFC ENVIRONMENT. LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE
RATES AND 25+ KT MEAN LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.

...DAKOTAS THIS AFTN...
NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW ENTERING N CNTRL MT WILL CONTINUE ESE INTO
WRN ND BY EVE. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM WITH SFC HEATING IN
DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS...WHERE A WEAK WAA PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. WHILE GUSTY SFC
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS...MEAGER
MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 20 AND 30S F/ WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH/LONGEVITY.

...NWRN GULF/CSTL TX TODAY...
THE STRONGEST ELEVATED TSTMS FORMING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING
IMPULSE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND THOSE THAT COULD CONTAIN SVR
HAIL...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.

..CORFIDI/DEAN.. 04/25/2013

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KMQT [251227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 251227
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
827 AM EDT THU APR 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 1 SW CALUMET 47.24N 88.47W
04/25/2013 E2.2 INCH HOUGHTON MI PUBLIC

12 AND 24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0815 AM SNOW 4 NE CALUMET 47.29N 88.38W
04/25/2013 M2.0 INCH KEWEENAW MI CO-OP OBSERVER

12 AND 24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. LIQUID EQUIVALENT 0.12


&&

$$

KCOOLEY

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