Monday, October 4, 2010

KREV [050223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 050223
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
723 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE RENO 39.57N 119.79W
10/04/2010 E0.00 INCH WASHOE NV NWS EMPLOYEE

MUD AND DEBRIS ON DANDINI BLVD. ONE CAR SLID OFF
ROAD...LIKELY DUE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN CREATING SLICK ROAD.


&&

$$

SSNYDER

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KPSR [050219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 050219
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
718 PM MST MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S TONOPAH 33.46N 112.92W
10/04/2010 E60 MPH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST


&&

$$

LEINS

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 690

WWUS20 KWNS 050203
SEL0
SPC WW 050203
AZZ000-CAZ000-NVZ000-UTZ000-050200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 690
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
803 PM MDT MON OCT 4 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 690 ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ARIZONA
CALIFORNIA
NEVADA
UTAH

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KPSR [050123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 050123
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
623 PM MST MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM TSTM WND GST FLORENCE 33.04N 111.37W
10/04/2010 E50 MPH PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE PALO VERDE TREE DOWN FROM WIND


&&

$$

KKINCAID

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KPSR [050116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 050116
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
616 PM MST MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SSE SACATON 33.07N 111.74W
10/04/2010 E60 MPH PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LEINS

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KPSR [050053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 050053
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
553 PM MST MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TSTM WND GST 10 SSW MARTINEZ LAKE 32.84N 114.56W
10/04/2010 E45 MPH IMPERIAL CA AMATEUR RADIO

AREAS OF BLOWING DUST


&&

$$

LEINS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050047
SWODY1
SPC AC 050045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN CA...SRN
NV...WRN AZ...

...SERN CA...SRN NEV...WRN AZ AND SWRN UT...

THIS EVENING A RESERVOIR OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE REMAINS FROM SRN CA...SRN NV INTO WRN AZ WHERE STEEP LAPSE
RATES EXIST ABOVE A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS HAVE
GENERALLY MIXED DOWN INTO THE 40S/. MOST STORMS SO FAR HAVE ACHIEVED
LIMITED ORGANIZATION DUE TO MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR. SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES FARTHER EWD. HOWEVER...A STRONG JET DROPPING SWD
ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIMIT EWD PROGRESS
OF THIS FEATURE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX PIVOTING
NEWD OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE. THOUGH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO ROTATE...THE
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. NEVERTHELESS...A WINDOW REMAINS THIS EVENING FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/05/2010

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KREV [050034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 050034
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
534 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N COLD SPRINGS VALLEY 39.68N 119.96W
10/04/2010 E0.50 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 0.5 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES WITH

STANDING WATER ON THE ROADS.ALSO REPORTED PEA-SIZED HAIL.


&&

$$

EL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1924

ACUS11 KWNS 050034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050033
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-050130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CA / NWRN AZ / SRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 690...

VALID 050033Z - 050130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 690
CONTINUES.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED...SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL
CONTINUE BEYOND 02Z...THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. AS SUCH...AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A LOCAL
EXTENSION IN TIME OF WW 690 WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SRN NV
AND NWRN AZ.

AS OF 0020Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM SRN NYE COUNTY NV INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AZ WITH A
GENERAL NWD MOTION OF 30-40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING EWD/SEWD THROUGH SRN CA
APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY. WHILE
THIS AREA RESIDES BETWEEN OBSERVED UPPER-AIR SOUNDING SITES...RUC
OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS
AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.

BASED ON 00Z FGZ/NKX SOUNDING DATA...ONGOING STORMS RESIDE WITHIN A
NOTABLE GRADIENT OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WITH VERTICAL SHEAR
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH PROGRESSION OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM. AS
SUCH...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
BEYOND 02Z. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY --WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC WARMING-- THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

..MEAD.. 10/05/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...

LAT...LON 34371431 34951488 35391579 35931616 36861612 37441551
37661452 36851364 35731343 34491352 34371431

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KOKX [050031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 050031
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
831 PM EDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0542 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 18 S GILGO STATE PARK 40.37N 73.34W
10/04/2010 ANZ355 NY OTHER FEDERAL

FREEPORT GAGE REACHED 5.34 FT NGVD


&&

$$

JMC

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KVEF [042334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 042334
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
434 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0421 PM TSTM WND GST PAHRUMP 36.21N 115.99W
10/04/2010 M69 MPH NYE NV FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SMALL HAIL ALSO BEGAN AT 430 PM.


&&

$$

MORGAN

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KHNX [042323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 042323
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
422 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM FLOOD YOSEMITE VALLEY 37.74N 119.60W
10/02/2010 MARIPOSA CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

PARK OFFICIAL REPORTED FLOODING BETWEEN EL PORTAL AND
YOSEMITE VALLEY...SOME ROADS WERE TEMPORARILY CLOSED DUE
TO DEBRIS

0730 AM FLOOD YOSEMITE VALLEY 37.74N 119.60W
10/04/2010 MARIPOSA CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

PARK OFFICIAL REPORTED FLOODING AND DEBRIS ALONG THE WEST
SIDE OF YOSEMITE VALLEY

0100 PM HAIL 10 SE MARIPOSA 37.39N 119.84W
10/04/2010 M1.25 INCH MARIPOSA CA PUBLIC

REPORTED AT WOODLAND SE OF MARIPOSA

0340 PM HAIL 1 WNW FRAZIER PARK 34.83N 118.96W
10/04/2010 M0.50 INCH KERN CA PUBLIC

10 MIN OF SMALL HAIL...TRANSMITTED BY A COCORAHS OBSERVER


0345 PM HAIL TEHACHAPI 35.13N 118.44W
10/04/2010 E0.25 INCH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED MINOR FLOODING IN STALLION SPRINGS


&&

$$

JBRO

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KHNX [042321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 042321
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
422 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0334 PM HAIL FRAZIER PARK 34.82N 118.94W
10/04/2010 E0.25 INCH KERN CA CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

TMOR

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KHNX [042309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 042309
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
408 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0334 PM HAIL FRAZIER PARK 34.82N 118.94W
10/04/2010 E0.25 INCH KERN CA CO-OP OBSERVER

LINDA CURTIS FROM FRAZIER PARK REPORTS 1/4 INCH HAIL WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURE OF 52 DEGREES


&&

$$

TMOR

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KPSR [042234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 042234
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
334 PM MST MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM TSTM WND GST WICKENBURG 33.97N 112.75W
10/04/2010 M50 MPH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY 2OO FEET IN HEAVY RAIN


&&

$$

KKINCAID

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KPSR [042231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 042231
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
331 PM MST MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0318 PM TSTM WND GST 4 NNW WICKENBURG 34.01N 112.78W
10/04/2010 M57 MPH YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KKINCAID

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KVEF [042143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 042143
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
243 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM FLASH FLOOD RAILROAD PASS 35.98N 114.92W
10/04/2010 CLARK NV AMATEUR RADIO

HIGHWAY 95 SOUTH WAS CLOSED AGAIN. WATER WAS RUSHING DOWN
THE SIDE OF RIVER MOUNTAIN.


&&

$$

MORGAN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1923

ACUS11 KWNS 042134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042134
AZZ000-CAZ000-042330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1923
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN CA INTO SWRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 042134Z - 042330Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE STORMS
CURRENTLY APPEAR UNORGANIZED...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE BY 00Z.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

WIDESPREAD STORMS CURRENTLY BETWEEN YUMA AND PHOENIX WERE LOCATED IN
AN AIR MASS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /9-10 C PER KM/ ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS...THE KIWA VWP INDICATED MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25 KT. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CONTINUES TO PUSH ONSHORE SOUTHERN CA...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN CA DESERTS INTO THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING SHEAR COUPLED WITH MODEST MLCAPE VALUES
/1000-1500 J/KG PER 21Z MESOANALYSIS/ MAY ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A LINE SEGMENT WITH TIME. IF THIS OCCURS A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 10/04/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...

LAT...LON 31991327 32431475 32651476 32591598 33311673 33971653
34011427 34331324 35551317 35451246 35141192 34471159
33241165 32901176 31991327

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KPSR [042122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 042122
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
222 PM MST MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0208 PM TSTM WND DMG PHOENIX 33.54N 112.07W
10/04/2010 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED THAT A STRONG GUST OF AT LEAST 40 MPH
DAMAGED A PLASTIC PATIO ROOF AND BLEW DOWN A 2 INCH
DIAMTER TREE BRANCH AT 7TH AVE AND CAMELBACK RD.


&&

$$

RRICKEY

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KVEF [042107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 042107
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
207 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NW PANACA 37.81N 114.41W
10/04/2010 LINCOLN NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 93 WAS BLOCKED AT MILE MARKER 109 DUE TO DEBRIS
WASHING ACROSS THE ROAD.


&&

$$

MORGAN

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KBOI [042049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 042049
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 PM MDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0739 PM TSTM WND GST 13 W YELLOW PINE 44.92N 115.74W
10/03/2010 M65 MPH VALLEY ID MESONET

PAYETTE NATIONAL FOREST EMPLOYEE REPORTED HALF A DOZEN
OTHERWISE HEALTHY TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG LICK CREEK
ROAD DOWN RIVER NEAR THE KRASSEL WORK CENTER WHICH IS
NORTH OF TEA POT RAWS WHERE THE GUST WAS MEASURED.


&&

$$

CDECKER

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KHNX [042047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 042047
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
147 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM SNOW TIOGA PASS 37.91N 119.26W
10/04/2010 E4.0 INCH TUOLUMNE CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

TIOGA PASS CLOSED.


&&

$$

KDUR

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KVEF [042023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 042023
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
123 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 S MEADVIEW 35.94N 114.08W
10/04/2010 MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

1.40 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 1111 AM. AT 1150 AM A 25 FOOT
WIDE SWATH OF WATER AND DEBRIS WAS OVER THE ROAD. THE
ROAD WAS STILL CLOSED AT 1255 PM.


&&

$$

MORGAN

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KVEF [042020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 042020
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
120 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SSE LOGANDALE 36.59N 114.47W
10/04/2010 CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

APPROXIMATELY ONE FOOT OF WATER WAS RUSHING THROUGH THE
INTERSECTION OF GUBLER AND HEYER STREETS. THE ROAD BED
WAS BEGINNING TO WASH AWAY.


&&

$$

MORGAN

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KVEF [042006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 042006
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
106 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 S MEADVIEW 35.94N 114.08W
10/04/2010 MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

PATTERSON GRADE ON PIERCE FERRY ROAD WAS CLOSED DUE TO
DEBRIS. 1.30 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT THE SPOTTERS
LOCATION.


&&

$$

MORGAN

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KOKX [041959]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KOKX 041959
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL STRATFORD 41.20N 73.13W
10/04/2010 E1.50 INCH FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

0211 PM HAIL SHELTON 41.32N 73.10W
10/04/2010 E1.75 INCH FAIRFIELD CT LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

LN

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KREV [041933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KREV 041933
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1233 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 AM HAIL 5 W BECKWOURTH 39.81N 120.47W
10/04/2010 E0.25 INCH PLUMAS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN, PEA SIZE HAIL AND FREQ
LIGHTNING. NO WIND.

0420 AM HEAVY RAIN TAHOE VISTA 39.25N 120.05W
10/04/2010 U0.00 INCH PLACER CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL IS REPORTING MINOR ROAD
FLOODING AT HIGHWAY 28 AND GRANITE ROAD.

0500 AM HEAVY RAIN WNW GERLACH 40.65N 119.36W
10/04/2010 M0.34 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN, LIGHT WINDS, NO HAIL.
MEASURED 0.34 INCHES RAIN WITHIN 10 MINUTES. CURRENTLY
LIGHT RAIN.

0536 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW MAMMOTH LAKES 37.65N 118.98W
10/04/2010 M0.30 INCH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED 0.30 INCHES RAIN WITHIN PAST 1/2 HOUR. CURRENT
TEMP IS 41F.

0815 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE FALLON 39.47N 118.77W
10/04/2010 M1.01 INCH CHURCHILL NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER NEAR FALLON REPORTED 1.01
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 E ALPINE MEADOWS 39.18N 120.14W
10/04/2010 M2.75 INCH PLACER CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER NEAR HOMEWOOD REPORTED A
24-HOUR TOTAL OF 2.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN 9 AM
SUNDAY AND 9 AM MONDAY.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN DOG VALLEY 39.55N 120.04W
10/04/2010 M1.00 INCH SIERRA CA OTHER FEDERAL

A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 1.00 INCH OF PRECIPITATION WAS
RECORDED AT THE DOG VALLEY RAWS SITE.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN TRUCKEE 39.33N 120.20W
10/04/2010 M1.26 INCH NEVADA CA CO-OP OBSERVER

A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 1.26 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN TAHOE CITY 39.17N 120.14W
10/04/2010 M1.07 INCH PLACER CA CO-OP OBSERVER

A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 1.07 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN PORTOLA 39.80N 120.47W
10/04/2010 M1.37 INCH PLUMAS CA CO-OP OBSERVER

A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 1.37 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN GERLACH 40.65N 119.35W
10/04/2010 M1.08 INCH WASHOE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 1.08 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN BOCA RESERVOIR 39.40N 120.09W
10/04/2010 M0.93 INCH NEVADA CA CO-OP OBSERVER

A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 0.93 INCH.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN FALLON 39.48N 118.78W
10/04/2010 M1.01 INCH CHURCHILL NV MESONET

A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 1.01 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS REPORTED
AT FALLON NAVAL AIR STATION.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN DIXIE VALLEY 39.57N 118.08W
10/04/2010 M1.21 INCH CHURCHILL NV PUBLIC

A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 1.21 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS
RECORDED AT BERNICE CANYON NEAR DIXIE VALLEY.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN BRIDGEPORT 38.26N 119.22W
10/04/2010 M1.28 INCH MONO CA OTHER FEDERAL

A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 1.28 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS
RECORDED AT THE BRIDGEPORT RAWS.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 E TRUCKEE 39.33N 120.13W
10/04/2010 M2.43 INCH NEVADA CA PUBLIC

A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 2.43 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS
RECORDED AT MARTIS CREEK LAKE NEAR TRUCKEE.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN INDEPENDENCE LAKE 39.44N 120.30W
10/04/2010 M1.10 INCH NEVADA CA PUBLIC

A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 1.10 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS
RECORDED AT THE INDEPENDENCE LAKE SNOTEL.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN EBBETTS PASS 38.54N 119.81W
10/04/2010 M1.30 INCH ALPINE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 1.30 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS
RECORDED AT THE EBBETTS PASS SNOTEL.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN GRAEAGLE 39.77N 120.62W
10/04/2010 M1.10 INCH PLUMAS CA PUBLIC

A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 1.10 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS
REPORTED AT MILLS PEAK LOOKOUT IN THE PLUMAS NATIONAL
FOREST SOUTH OF GRAEAGLE AT AN ELEVATION OF 7244 FEET.


&&

$$

HOON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041932
SWODY1
SPC AC 041930

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S....

...SWRN U.S...

HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT RISK INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN UT TO ACCOUNT FOR
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...JUST UPSTREAM...THAT SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIRMASS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE ACROSS SRN UT...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 J/KG...BUT SWLY TRAJECTORIES SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
AT LEAST A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EARLIER FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CONVECTION NOW
EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY...DRIVEN IN
LARGE PART BY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IT WOULD SEEM THAT
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WITH TRAINING
UPDRAFTS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS. WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY
ACCOMPANY THE TRAINING ECHOES.

..DARROW.. 10/04/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010/

...SWRN U.S...
SATELLITE AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SEWD ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. CLOSED UPR LOW WILL FORM BY THIS
EVENING SCENTRAL CA WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS
SRN NV SWD THRU LWR CO RIVER VALLEY.

A MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FEED NWD THRU SRN CA/AZ INTO NV/SRN UT
WITH PWATS TO 1 INCH. COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM
7-8C/KM AND DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LOW...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF CONVECTION SRN NV/UT SWD THRU WRN AZ/SERN
CA.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG DESERT
VALLEYS. WITH 30-40KT OF PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SEVERE
CONCERN WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF
BRIEF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STRONGER
MID LEVEL JET ROTATES EWD ACROSS SRN CA ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES
VICINITY LWR CO RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE HAIL SIZE WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE IN MOST STORM
ACTIVITY.

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KFGZ [041928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 041928
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1228 PM MST MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM HAIL SELIGMAN 35.33N 112.88W
10/04/2010 E0.75 INCH YAVAPAI AZ PUBLIC

ONE INCH ACCUMULATION OF HAIL


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000193

$$

DJO

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KVEF [041922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 041922
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1222 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM FLASH FLOOD 9 S MEADVIEW 35.87N 114.07W
10/04/2010 MOHAVE AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIAMOND BAR ROAD WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING BEGINNING AT
1115 AM AND WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 1210 PM.

1215 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 W BOULDER CITY 35.98N 114.90W
10/04/2010 CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

HIGHWAY 95 SOUTH WAS CLOSED AT RAILROAD PASS DUE TO FLASH
FLOODING.


&&

$$

MORGAN

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 690

WWUS20 KWNS 041901
SEL0
SPC WW 041901
AZZ000-CAZ000-NVZ000-UTZ000-050200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 690
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM MDT MON OCT 4 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PART OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST UTAH

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 800
PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF
CEDAR CITY UTAH TO 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEEDLES CALIFORNIA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER CA.
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22025.


...HALES

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KOKX [041831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 041831
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
231 PM EDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0211 PM HAIL SHELTON 41.32N 73.10W
10/04/2010 E1.75 INCH FAIRFIELD CT LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

LN

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KOKX [041807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 041807
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 PM EDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL STRATFORD 41.20N 73.13W
10/04/2010 E1.50 INCH FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1922

ACUS11 KWNS 041753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041752
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-041945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AZ...SERN CA...SRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041752Z - 041945Z

AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.00 INCH. CONTINUED DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT
FAVORING HIGH TERRAIN WITH SWLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND IN EXCESS OF 30
KT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE VALLEYS WILL AID GUSTY
WINDS.

WHILE SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.

..JEWELL.. 10/04/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 33551351 33841495 34941672 35941671 36831586 36991462
36931385 36521340 35691340 35151318 34701270 34431231
34051243 33551351

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041708
SWODY2
SPC AC 041707

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN
U.S....

...SWRN U.S...

WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN
U.S...PARTICULARLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF AZ TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER CA WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP-STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NWRN MEXICO TOWARD
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL HEIGHT
FALLS...IT APPEARS DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT EASES ACROSS THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. PWAT VALUES ARE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SRN CA/AZ...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
STRONG HEATING WILL INDUCE SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S. READINGS ABOVE 80F
WITH 60+ DEW POINTS COULD EASILY RENDER SBCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG.
FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE...WILL EVOLVE WITHIN BELT OF STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST RISK WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER NW INTO CNTRL NV...STRONG-ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN EXIT REGION OF SPEED MAX WHERE MUCH
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROVE CONDUCIVE FOR HAIL
GENERATION.

...NEW ENGLAND...

WARM CONVEYOR WILL ROTATE NWWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE PERIOD AS UPPER LOW MIGRATES SLOWLY EWD INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS ZONE OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE/ASCENT SUGGESTS A FEW EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE
LIGHTNING.

..DARROW.. 10/04/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041552
SWODY1
SPC AC 041550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NV SWD THRU SERN CA
AND WESTERN AZ...

...SWRN U.S...
SATELLITE AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SEWD ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. CLOSED UPR LOW WILL FORM BY THIS
EVENING SCENTRAL CA WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS
SRN NV SWD THRU LWR CO RIVER VALLEY.

A MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FEED NWD THRU SRN CA/AZ INTO NV/SRN UT
WITH PWATS TO 1 INCH. COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM
7-8C/KM AND DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LOW...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF CONVECTION SRN NV/UT SWD THRU WRN AZ/SERN
CA.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG DESERT
VALLEYS. WITH 30-40KT OF PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SEVERE
CONCERN WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF
BRIEF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STRONGER
MID LEVEL JET ROTATES EWD ACROSS SRN CA ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES
VICINITY LWR CO RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE HAIL SIZE WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE IN MOST STORM
ACTIVITY.

..HALES/SMITH.. 10/04/2010

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KREV [041451]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KREV 041451
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
751 AM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 AM HAIL 5 W BECKWOURTH 39.81N 120.47W
10/04/2010 E0.25 INCH PLUMAS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN, PEA SIZE HAIL AND FREQ
LIGHTNING. NO WIND.

0420 AM HEAVY RAIN TAHOE VISTA 39.25N 120.05W
10/04/2010 U0.00 INCH PLACER CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL IS REPORTING MINOR ROAD
FLOODING AT HIGHWAY 28 AND GRANITE ROAD.

0500 AM HEAVY RAIN WNW GERLACH 40.65N 119.36W
10/04/2010 M0.34 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN, LIGHT WINDS, NO HAIL.
MEASURED 0.34 INCHES RAIN WITHIN 10 MINUTES. CURRENTLY
LIGHT RAIN.

0536 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW MAMMOTH LAKES 37.65N 118.98W
10/04/2010 M0.30 INCH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED 0.30 INCHES RAIN WITHIN PAST 1/2 HOUR. CURRENT
TEMP IS 41F.


&&

$$

JKIELHOR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041259
SWODY1
SPC AC 041257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR CO VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48...WITH TROUGH ALONG
THE W CST...QSTNRY UPR LOW OVER THE OH VLY...AND RIDGE OVER THE
RCKYS/PLNS. SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW MOVING SE JUST
OFF THE CNTRL CA CST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD TURN MORE E OR ESE ACROSS
SRN CA LATER TODAY AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX CONTINUES S ACROSS THE E
PACIFIC AND HELPS CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER THE REGION EARLY TUE.

...SWRN STATES...
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MID LVL COOLING WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPR
IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INCREASE STRENGTH/COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR CO VLY TODAY. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
DEEP SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SUSTAINED STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW MARGINAL
SUPERCELLS.

NEW TSTMS SHOULD FORM BY MID AFTN ACROSS SRN NV...SE CA...AND NW AZ
AS SFC TEMPS WARM BENEATH PW PLUME WITH VALUES AOA 1 INCH. GIVEN
30-40 KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES...COUPLED WITH SBCAPE OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES...SETUP MAY YIELD BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND AND
HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVE.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/04/2010

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KREV [041124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 041124
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
424 AM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 AM HEAVY RAIN TAHOE VISTA 39.25N 120.05W
10/04/2010 U0.00 INCH PLACER CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL IS REPORTING MINOR ROAD
FLOODING AT HIGHWAY 28 AND GRANITE ROAD.


&&

$$

BRONG

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KSTO [040952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 040952
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
251 AM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM HAIL 5 ENE CISCO 39.32N 120.45W
10/04/2010 E0.75 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN PAST HOUR.


&&

$$

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040850
SWOD48
SPC AC 040837

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...SEVERE POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN MAY BECOME
A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN GENERALLY NEAR OR NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS A
RESULT...SUBSTANTIVE INLAND RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE...AND
DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...ARE
UNLIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

..KERR.. 10/04/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040837
SWOD48
SPC AC 040837

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...SEVERE POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN MAY BECOME
A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN GENERALLY NEAR OR NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS A
RESULT...SUBSTANTIVE INLAND RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE...AND
DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...ARE
UNLIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

..KERR.. 10/04/2010

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KHNX [040805]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 040805
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
104 AM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 PM HAIL CLOVIS 36.82N 119.70W
10/03/2010 E0.25 INCH FRESNO CA BROADCAST MEDIA

BROADCAST METEOROLOGIST REPORTED HAIL THE SIZE OF
SKITTLES


&&

$$

JBRO

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KHNX [040726]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 040726
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1226 AM PDT MON OCT 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 AM HAIL COARSEGOLD 37.26N 119.70W
10/04/2010 E0.25 INCH MADERA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

1210 AM HAIL 2 NW SANGER 36.72N 119.58W
10/04/2010 E0.25 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED STREET FLOODING IN SANGER


&&

$$

JBRO

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 040723
SWODY3
SPC AC 040722

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER...REMAINING GENERALLY CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES. BUT IT APPEARS THAT A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA COULD COMMENCE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.

MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE CLOSED LOW IN THE EAST.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BEGIN TO
LIFT MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE WESTERLIES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODEL ENSEMBLES IS
QUITE LARGE CONCERNING THESE DEVELOPMENTS.

REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR APPRECIABLE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF
THE ROCKIES...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...PIVOTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR AN ASSOCIATED 50-60+ KT SOUTHERLY 500 MB JET
STREAK NOSING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BUT SUBSTANTIVE
DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...OR AT LEAST APPEARS UNLIKELY...PRECLUDING ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..KERR.. 10/04/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1921

ACUS11 KWNS 040646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040645
CAZ000-040815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 040645Z - 040815Z

ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR HAIL. MOST OF THE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...
THOUGH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY
SUPPORT A FEW HAIL EVENTS LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH. A SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE OVERALL
LIMITED THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL.

LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM THE
NRN SIERRA SSWWD TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LOCATED ALONG A FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SWD ALONG AND INTO THE W COAST. DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS CA...ATTENDANT TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
ATOP STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH 12Z. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO SRN CA PER
00Z SOUNDINGS IS MAINTAINING PW VALUES AOA 1 INCH. DESPITE THIS
MOISTURE AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH APPROACHING PACIFIC
TROUGH...TIME OF DAY IS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AROUND 500
J PER KG/ AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
MARGINAL TO LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENTS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
VICINITY WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER.

..PETERS.. 10/04/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...

LAT...LON 38292026 37111899 36241838 35211850 35091908 35661992
36572065 37582111 38292026

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040527
SWODY1
SPC AC 040526

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DESERT SOUTHWEST...
A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SSEWD TODAY ALONG
THE COAST OF CA AS A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL JET DIVES SWD INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL
APPROACH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO INCREASE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE
BY MIDDAY ACROSS SRN NV...SE CA AND NCNTRL AZ AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE WITH MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM THE VICINITY OF LAS VEGAS SWD. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS ON THE LOW END FOR SUPERCELLS BUT A FEW ROTATING
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM AND
A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F. THIS MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. SMALL HAIL
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AIDED BY COOLING AIR
ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -12 TO -16C RANGE.

..BROYLES/STOPPKOTTE.. 10/04/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 040501
SWODY2
SPC AC 040500

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ARIZONA...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
PATTERN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
CLOSED LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY... GENERALLY
CUT OFF FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL EXTEND IN A
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC BELT ACROSS CANADA. IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS PIVOTING AROUND ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...THE EASTERN
CLOSED LOW MAY SUBTLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
SIMILARLY...THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW MAY DIG SOUTHWARD BEFORE
REDEVELOPING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WHILE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...LOW-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROMINENT FROM THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLY STRATIFIED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH LOW
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL ARIZONA...
DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN
APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

...ARIZONA...
STRENGTHENING OF DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.
AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION WILL
IMPACT THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METROPOLITAN AREA. THIS IS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING PROBABLY
WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MODEST DESTABILIZATION...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER
CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG. STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... PERHAPS A TORNADO.

..KERR.. 10/04/2010

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