SWODY1
SPC AC 040526
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...DESERT SOUTHWEST...
A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SSEWD TODAY ALONG
THE COAST OF CA AS A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL JET DIVES SWD INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL
APPROACH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO INCREASE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE
BY MIDDAY ACROSS SRN NV...SE CA AND NCNTRL AZ AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE WITH MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM THE VICINITY OF LAS VEGAS SWD. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS ON THE LOW END FOR SUPERCELLS BUT A FEW ROTATING
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM AND
A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F. THIS MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. SMALL HAIL
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AIDED BY COOLING AIR
ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -12 TO -16C RANGE.
..BROYLES/STOPPKOTTE.. 10/04/2010
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