SWODY2
SPC AC 040500
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ARIZONA...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
PATTERN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
CLOSED LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY... GENERALLY
CUT OFF FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL EXTEND IN A
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC BELT ACROSS CANADA. IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS PIVOTING AROUND ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...THE EASTERN
CLOSED LOW MAY SUBTLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
SIMILARLY...THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW MAY DIG SOUTHWARD BEFORE
REDEVELOPING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WHILE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...LOW-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROMINENT FROM THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLY STRATIFIED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH LOW
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL ARIZONA...
DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN
APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
...ARIZONA...
STRENGTHENING OF DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.
AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION WILL
IMPACT THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METROPOLITAN AREA. THIS IS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING PROBABLY
WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MODEST DESTABILIZATION...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER
CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG. STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... PERHAPS A TORNADO.
..KERR.. 10/04/2010
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