Thursday, April 19, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0570

ACUS11 KWNS 200349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200349
OKZ000-TXZ000-200545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SWERN OK/N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183...

VALID 200349Z - 200545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183
CONTINUES.

LOCAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS INITIAL STORMS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EWD TOWARD ERN OK -- AS THEN ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
MEANWHILE...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY BVO
/BARTLESVILLE OK/ TO SPS /WICHITA FALLS TX/...ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO
SWRN OK...WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS NOW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...PRIMARILY WITH ELEVATED STORMS TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SEWD-MOVING FRONT.

..GOSS.. 04/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 36179670 35509575 33929661 32759850 33019941 33620010
34329991 35579846 36179670

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KOUN [200302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 200302
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1002 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM HAIL PURCELL 35.01N 97.37W
04/19/2012 E1.25 INCH MCCLAIN OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0958 PM HAIL 10 E PURCELL 35.01N 97.19W
04/19/2012 E1.25 INCH CLEVELAND OK STORM CHASER

NEAR COUNTY LINE


&&

$$

DW

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KOUN [200246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 200246
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
946 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0934 PM HAIL 3 W PURCELL 35.01N 97.42W
04/19/2012 E1.00 INCH MCCLAIN OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DW

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KOUN [200240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 200240
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
940 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0939 PM HAIL PURCELL 35.01N 97.37W
04/19/2012 E1.75 INCH MCCLAIN OK STORM CHASER


&&

$$

DW

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KOUN [200233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 200233
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
932 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0929 PM HAIL 5 W PURCELL 35.01N 97.46W
04/19/2012 E1.50 INCH MCCLAIN OK STORM CHASER

HALF-DOLLAR TO PING PONG SIZE HAIL


&&

$$

DW

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KOUN [200225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 200225
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0922 PM HAIL WASHINGTON 35.06N 97.48W
04/19/2012 E1.25 INCH MCCLAIN OK STORM CHASER


&&

$$

DW

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KOUN [200220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 200220
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
920 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0917 PM HAIL PAULS VALLEY 34.74N 97.22W
04/19/2012 E0.88 INCH GARVIN OK PUBLIC

DIME AND NICKEL HAIL


&&

$$

DW

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KOUN [200216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 200216
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
915 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0909 PM HAIL 7 S BLANCHARD 35.04N 97.66W
04/19/2012 E1.00 INCH MCCLAIN OK TRAINED SPOTTER

NEARLY COVERING ROAD


&&

$$

DW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0569

ACUS11 KWNS 200214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200213
OKZ000-TXZ000-200315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-SRN OK / N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183...

VALID 200213Z - 200315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183
CONTINUES.

SCTD BROKEN CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS --CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY
LARGE HAIL-- WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD INVOF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
IN CNTRL OK SWD TOWARDS THE NRN PART OF THE DFW METROPLEX DURING THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL LEAK EWD OUT OF THE EXISTING WW...AND AN AREAL EXTENSION OR NEW
WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AS STORMS APPROACH THE ERN BOUNDS OF WW
183.

COMPOSITE SURFACE/RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL SEGMENT
ACCELERATING SEWD ACROSS WRN N-CNTRL TX TO THE STORM CLUSTER NEAR
YOUNG AND JACK COUNTIES /TX/. ANOTHER PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS
ADVANCED SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WW NEAR THE OKC
METRO...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL LIFT AND AIDING IN THE FILLING-IN OF A
LINEAR CONGLOMERATION OF STORMS JUST NW OF I-44. IN BETWEEN THE 2
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXISTS A SLOW MOVING N-S ORIENTED
FRONTAL SEGMENT ACROSS SWRN OK--SERVING AS A GENESIS REGION FOR MORE
RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT.

00Z OUN RAOB SHOWED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PW/S NEAR 1
INCH--RESULTING IN MODERATE CAPE /1300 J PER KG/. STRONG FLOW AT H5
/50 KTS/ HAS ACTED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE THIS
EVENING...AND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LARGE HAIL GROWTH WITH THE MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS /RECENT HAIL REPORTS 1 TO 2.5 INCH IN DIAMETER/. AS
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD...A MODEST FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY ACT TO SUSTAIN A PORTION OF THESE
STORMS TO THE ERN BOUND OF WW 183--ESPECIALLY ACROSS OK WHERE THE
CAP WAS SHOWN TO BE WEAKER /PER OUN AND FWD RAOBS/. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CONCERNING POSSIBLE WW AREAL
EXTENSION OR THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW ACROSS E-CNTRL
OK.

..SMITH.. 04/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32909889 34169782 35279826 35949656 35799570 35079530
34479561 33139676 32959717 32879831 32909889

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KLUB [200208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 200208
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
908 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM HAIL 10 E ROARING SPRINGS 33.90N 100.68W
04/19/2012 E0.75 INCH MOTLEY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

RUSSELLVILLE


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200165

$$

JWJ

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KLUB [200200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 200200
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
859 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 PM HAIL 3 NE ROARING SPRINGS 33.93N 100.82W
04/19/2012 E1.25 INCH MOTLEY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0855 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NE ROARING SPRINGS 33.93N 100.82W
04/19/2012 E60 MPH MOTLEY TX TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200163
EVENT NUMBER LUB1200164

$$

JWJ

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KSJT [200154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 200154
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
854 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0746 PM HAIL THROCKMORTON 33.18N 99.18W
04/19/2012 E0.88 INCH THROCKMORTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0845 PM HAIL 5 E WOODSON 33.01N 98.97W
04/19/2012 M1.75 INCH THROCKMORTON TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200106
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200107

$$

REIMER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Amend 1

ACUS01 KWNS 200149
SWODY1
SPC AC 200147

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0847 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 200142Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN TX INTO OK AND SERN
KS...

AMENDED TO EXPAND SLIGHT RISK FARTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
HAIL STORM

...WRN TX...

ISOLATED AND ELEVATED SUPERCELL STORM HAS DEVELOPED IN POST FRONTAL
REGION JUST NE OF LUBBOCK...PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. LONGEVITY OF
THIS STORM IS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD TRACK INTO NWRN TX DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

...NRN TX THROUGH OK...

EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A SFC LOW IN SERN IA
SWWD THROUGH SERN KS...CNTRL AND SWRN OK INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF WRN
TX. DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM SWRN TX JUST WEST OF DEL RIO NWD INTO NWRN
TX WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AN AXIS OF
800-1000 J/KG MLCAPE EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK WHERE
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD MODEST MOIST AXIS WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S. STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING GENERALLY FROM THE DRYLINE COLD FRONT INTERSECTION OVER
NWRN TX NWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO W CNTRL OK. STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDING SRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTAKES THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION. A MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
PROMOTING 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LATER
THIS EVENING SOME OF THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS OR
LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...ERN KS THROUGH WRN/NRN MO AND SERN IA...

STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SERN
IA SWWD INTO SERN KS. DESPITE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FROM NRN MO INTO
SERN IA...HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THE SLIGHT RISK WHERE LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY ARE VERY WEAK. THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS MIGHT
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS SERN KS.

..DIAL.. 04/20/2012

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KOUN [200148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 200148
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
848 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0824 PM HAIL 9 W AMBER 35.16N 98.04W
04/19/2012 E1.75 INCH GRADY OK EMERGENCY MNGR

4W OF HWY 81 ON CR 1290

0839 PM HAIL MARLOW 34.64N 97.96W
04/19/2012 E1.75 INCH STEPHENS OK EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

DW

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KLUB [200148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 200148
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
848 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0839 PM HAIL 6 W MATADOR 34.02N 100.93W
04/19/2012 E1.00 INCH MOTLEY TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200162

$$

JWJ

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KLUB [200140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 200140
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
840 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0826 PM HAIL 4 N DOUGHERTY 34.00N 101.09W
04/19/2012 E3.00 INCH FLOYD TX TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO REPORTED FUNNEL ALOFT WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION
AS STORM CROSSED THE ESCARPMENT


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200161

$$

JWJ

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KOUN [200134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 200134
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
834 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 PM HAIL 3 NE VERDEN 35.11N 98.05W
04/19/2012 E1.00 INCH GRADY OK TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERING ROADWAY

0829 PM HAIL MARLOW 34.64N 97.96W
04/19/2012 E1.75 INCH STEPHENS OK AMATEUR RADIO

NORTH SIDE OF MARLOW


&&

$$

DW

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KOUN [200119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 200119
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
819 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM HAIL 2 N VERDEN 35.11N 98.09W
04/19/2012 E1.00 INCH GRADY OK TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL TO QUARTER HAIL


&&

$$

DW

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KOUN [200107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 200107
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
807 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM HAIL 11 N GRACEMONT 35.35N 98.26W
04/19/2012 E2.50 INCH CADDO OK STORM CHASER


&&

$$

DW

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200102
SWODY1
SPC AC 200100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN TX INTO OK AND SERN
KS...

...NRN TX THROUGH OK...

EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A SFC LOW IN SERN IA
SWWD THROUGH SERN KS...CNTRL AND SWRN OK INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF WRN
TX. DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM SWRN TX JUST WEST OF DEL RIO NWD INTO NWRN
TX WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AN AXIS OF
800-1000 J/KG MLCAPE EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK WHERE
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD MODEST MOIST AXIS WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S. STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING GENERALLY FROM THE DRYLINE COLD FRONT INTERSECTION OVER
NWRN TX NWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO W CNTRL OK. STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDING SRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTAKES THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION. A MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
PROMOTING 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LATER
THIS EVENING SOME OF THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS OR
LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...ERN KS THROUGH WRN/NRN MO AND SERN IA...

STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SERN
IA SWWD INTO SERN KS. DESPITE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FROM NRN MO INTO
SERN IA...HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THE SLIGHT RISK WHERE LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY ARE VERY WEAK. THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS MIGHT
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS SERN KS.

..DIAL.. 04/20/2012

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KOUN [200058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 200058
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
757 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0752 PM HAIL 9 NNW GRACEMONT 35.31N 98.32W
04/19/2012 E1.75 INCH CADDO OK STORM CHASER

0752 PM TSTM WND GST 9 NNW GRACEMONT 35.31N 98.32W
04/19/2012 M65 MPH CADDO OK STORM CHASER


&&

$$

DW

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KOUN [200050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 200050
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL 5 SSW GRACEMONT 35.12N 98.29W
04/19/2012 E1.75 INCH CADDO OK STORM CHASER

QUARTER TO GOLFBALL HAIL


&&

$$

DW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0568

ACUS11 KWNS 200029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200029
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-200230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/WRN MO/NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200029Z - 200230Z

BAND OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN MO
SWWD INTO NRN OK. WITH SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO REMAIN LIMITED...WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION
ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT
EXTENDS FROM NWRN MO SWWD INTO SERN KS. EVENING RAOBS CONFIRM THE
OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION ATOP A SLOWLY COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED STORMS...LACK OF CAPE SHOULD MITIGATE THREAT FOR ANY
MORE THAN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS -- PARTICULARLY FROM E CENTRAL
KS NEWD INTO NWRN MO.

FARTHER TO THE SW...SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS WSWWD FROM
FAR SERN KS INTO NRN OK...WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXISTS -- WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED
TO N CENTRAL OK WHERE THE NRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER CAPE AXIS IS
OBSERVED. HOWEVER...WITH THIS AREA JUST N OF RECENTLY ISSUED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #183...AN EXPANSION IN AREA OF THE EXISTING WATCH
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED COURSE OF ACTION FOR ANY INCREASING/FUTURE
THREAT IMMEDIATELY N OF THIS WATCH...AS SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH N TO WARRANT A SEPARATE WW.

..GOSS.. 04/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 38889417 38619366 36699474 36049631 36019811 36209867
36509835 37629614 38549513 38889417

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 183

WWUS20 KWNS 192338
SEL3
SPC WW 192338
OKZ000-TXZ000-200600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF
MINERAL WELLS TEXAS TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE OVER WESTERN NORTH TX...AND ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE IN A REGION OF RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. BUT...SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AND MODERATE CAPE WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST NEAR THE RED RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...HART

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KMFL [192315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 192315
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
715 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 7 W PAHOKEE 26.82N 80.78W
04/19/2012 M47 MPH AMZ610 FL MESONET

A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 41 KNOTS/47 MPH WAS RECORDED
BY A MESONET SENSOR ON SOUTHERN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.


&&

$$

GREGORIA

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KLUB [192312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 192312
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
611 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NE ASPERMONT 33.17N 100.19W
04/19/2012 M60 MPH STONEWALL TX MESONET

WEST TEXAS MESONET REPORT


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200160

$$

JWJ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0567

ACUS11 KWNS 192311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192310
OKZ000-TXZ000-200115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL / CNTRL / SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 192310Z - 200115Z

THE AREA ACROSS N-CNTRL OK SSWWD INTO WRN N-CNTRL TX IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A SEVERE WW --ALBEIT DELAYED UNTIL THE CAP IS BREACHED
AND SCTD CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNDERWAY /00-03Z TIMEFRAME/.

LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW SERVING AS A TRIPLE
POINT-LIKE FEATURE 30 MI WNW SPS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD ACROSS THE
N-CNTRL TX TO THE TX BIG BEND VICINITY. A WINDSHIFT/WEAK COOL FRONT
EXTENDS NWD FROM THE LOW INTO S-CNTRL KS...WHILE A MORE APPRECIABLE
FRONTAL SEGMENT CONTINUES SWD ACROSS THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS/SOUTH
PLAINS REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION --HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE
WRN EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR-- AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASINGLY ACTIVE ACCAS FIELD ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS AND SWRN OK IS BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...MAKING CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE PROBABLE AS THIS
CONVECTION DEEPENS WITHIN THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS AND CINH WEAKENS
FURTHER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA ATOP A
MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS RESULTING IN 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE. VEERING
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO 50 KTS AT 5KM AGL AT KFDR VAD WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY BEFORE A
CONGLOMERATION OF SCTD STORMS/COLD POOLS FAVORS A MIXED MODE BY LATE
EVENING. DESPITE SUPERCELL SUPPORTIVE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THIS
REGION...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PRIOR TO SUNSET AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
--INCREASING TOWARDS DUSK AND THEREAFTER -- WILL LARGELY
LIMIT/NEGATE TORNADO POTENTIAL AS LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

..SMITH.. 04/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 34109917 35889833 36509784 36559705 35969669 33239765
32879833 33069921 34109917

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KCYS [192104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 192104
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
304 PM MDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
04/19/2012 E0.25 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191954
SWODY1
SPC AC 191952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NRN TX ACROSS OK...ERN
KS...WRN MO AND SRN IA...

...N TX...OK...
TIGHTENED UP THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ON THE S SIDE OVER NRN TX DUE
TO EXPECTED CAPPING AND MODELS SHOWING THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF
STORMS TO BE OVER SRN OK AND ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS FORCING AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT SHOULD FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WIND THREAT AS OUTFLOW PRODUCTION INCREASES AND
FLOW ALOFT IS NOT VERY STRONG.

...ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND IA...
STRONG SHEAR BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY BUT
PERSISTENT LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY. STRONG WIND
PROFILES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR WIND
GUSTS...WITH MARGINAL HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.

FARTHER N INTO IA...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGER DUE TO A WARM FRONT.
STORMS THAT INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD HAVE A THREAT OF A
TORNADO...ALTHOUGH LIKELY WEAK AND SHORT LIVED. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON THIS AREA SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 566.

..JEWELL.. 04/19/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012/

...ERN KS TO WRN MO...
SURFACE LOW ACROSS KS THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NEWD TO NRN MO/SRN IA
BY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW WILL SPREAD
INTO ERN/SERN KS AND NWRN MO THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN ACROSS
MOST OF MO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

STRONG DYNAMICS AND LESSENING DEEP LAYER STATIC STABILITY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONSEQUENT LOW-LEVEL
MASS ADJUSTMENTS WILL SUPPORT MODEST WARM SECTOR MOISTURE ADVECTION
THAT...WHEN COMBINED WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...MAY RESULT IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID 50S F AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SBCAPE
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG FROM ERN KS INTO NRN MO. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT SUBSTANTIALLY MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND HEATING
WILL BE REQUIRED TO OVERCOME THE MAGNITUDE OF ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS...MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND/OR IN THE WAKE OF
COLD FROPA WHERE FOCUSED MESOSCALE ASCENT IN CONCERT WITH LARGER
SCALE FORCING CAN ACT TO OVERCOME STRONG CAPPING.

BULK SHEAR OF 35-40KT WILL LIKELY AID IN UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND THE
PRESENCE OF COLD/DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE HAIL
PRODUCTION AS QLCS SPREADS ESEWD ACROSS SERN KS AND INTO MO THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING. STRONGER WIND GUST POTENTIAL APPEARS MOST LIKELY
WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY OVER KS/NWRN MO PRIOR TO POST-FRONTAL AND
DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SETTING IN.

...OK TO NW TX...
REVIEW OF LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND SURFACE/UA ANALYSIS
SUGGEST THAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OK AND NW TX MAY BE DELAYED
UNTIL AROUND 00Z. WHILE THESE AREAS ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND...EVEN WITH
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F.
STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL FURTHER
OFFSET ANY EARLY/PERCEIVED GAINS IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THESE
AREAS BUT A CORRIDOR OF CAPPED SBCAPE NEARING 2000 J/KG SEEMS
POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE.

EXPECT COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NWRN OK SWWD ACROSS THE
TX PNHDL...TO MOVE INTO CNTRL OK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS SWRN OK/NWRN
TX. TSTM INITIATION IN THIS SCENARIO APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION SOMEWHERE NEAR/SOUTH OF RED RIVER IN THE
23-01Z TIME FRAME. SUPERCELL SHEAR PROFILES ARE INDICATED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA BUT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER/HIGH LFC
SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL TO VERY ISOLATED AND BRIEF IF AT ALL.
LARGE HAIL DOES APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT BUT OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE AS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO WARRANT SIGNIFICANT HAIL PROBABILITIES.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FROM NERN INTO CNTRL
OK THROUGH THE EVENING. STORM EVOLUTION HERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THAT DESCRIBED FOR KS/MO. A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL POST-FRONTAL MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
TX/OK PNHDLS LATE AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO WRN AND CNTRL OK
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0566

ACUS11 KWNS 191924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191923
IAZ000-NEZ000-192100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/W-CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191923Z - 192100Z

SOME INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION IN FAR ERN NEB MAY OCCUR
INTO W-CNTRL/CNTRL IA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY POSE AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR THREAT. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

OMAHA NEB WSR-88D DATA INDICATE INTENSIFYING ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
THE N/W OF THE OMAHA AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SEGMENT OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT THAT WRAPS AROUND THE NWRN
SEMICIRCLE OF AN INCREASINGLY BETTER-DEFINED EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
CROSSING THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
BETWEEN 35 AND 60 KT OF SWLY/WSWLY FLOW WITHIN THE 3-7-KM-AGL LAYER
PER OMAHA NEB AND DES MOINES IA VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE NEWD/ENEWD INTO W-CNTRL/CNTRL IA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL STATIC STABILITY DECREASES TO
THE SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM A SFC LOW NEAR
OMAHA OWING TO INSOLATION/DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN THE DRY-SLOT
CORRIDOR OF THE CYCLONE...THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
ENCOUNTER INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT AS THE LESS-STATICALLY-STABLE AIR IS ADVECTED ATOP THE
NEAR-SFC COLD DOME. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT AS PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACH THEIR LFC/S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL...PERHAPS APPROACHING MARGINALLY
SVR THRESHOLDS GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF ANY STORMS ATTAIN MID-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND EXHIBIT DEVIANT MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN
FLOW...THEY MAY INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY/LOW WHILE INGESTING
SFC-BASED INFLOW...IN WHICH CASE A THREAT FOR A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT PROVIDED THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE PER
DES MOINES IA VWP DATA AND BACKGROUND VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR THE
FRONT/LOW.

..COHEN.. 04/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41569503 41319565 41519606 41839609 42209582 42529447
42429331 41929302 41809344 41649421 41569503

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WATCHES: Test...tornado Watch Number 9991...test

WWUS20 KWNS 191751
SEL1
SPC WW 191751
MNZ000-LSZ000-191900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TEST...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9991...TEST
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A...TEST...
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MINNESOTA
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 1250 PM UNTIL 200 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 0 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TEST TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS MINNESOTA TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF FAIRMONT MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THIS IS A TEST WATCH..

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME
TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 0 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI
WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 0. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 0000.


...PETERS

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WATCHES: Test...tornado Watch Number 9990...test

WWUS20 KWNS 191750
SEL0
SPC WW 191750
WIZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-191900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TEST...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9990...TEST
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A...TEST...
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 1250 PM UNTIL 200 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 0 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TEST TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF JANESVILLE
WISCONSIN TO 5 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF KENNEDY WISCONSIN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...--- TEST ---

THIS IS A TEST WATCH.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME
TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 0 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI
WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 0. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 0000.


...EDWARDS

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KMFR [191748]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 191748
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1048 AM PDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1048 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ESE BROOKINGS 42.05N 124.26W
04/19/2012 M3.07 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.


&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 191723
SWODY2
SPC AC 191722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF FROM THE PARENT TROUGH ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS ERN TX AND
INTO LA OVERNIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...A STRONG JET
STREAK WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS TX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AFFECTING ERN TX INTO LA AND
AR. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD...EXTENDING FROM
NEAR LAREDO TX TO CNTRL LA BY 00Z.

TO THE N...THE NRN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FROM ERN ONTARIO SWWD INTO
THE OH VALLEY.

...SRN AND ERN TX...WRN LA...SRN AR...
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY FRI ALONG
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CAPPING WILL EXIST FARTHER S AWAY FROM THE
FRONT INITIALLY...BUT STRONG LIFT...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN TX WITH
STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. SHEAR PROFILES OVER ERN TX AND INTO AR
AND LA LOOK TO BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. FARTHER SW...LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...BUT CAPPING WILL REMAIN FOR
A LONGER DURATION AND FORCING ESPECIALLY FOR DEEP S TX MAY BE
LIMITED. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT A SMALL SLIGHT FOR THE BEST
COMBINATION OF FORCING AND PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE. MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IT IS UNCLEAR HOW STORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN IN A POST FRONTAL
REGIME...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN JUST N OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

...NRN KY INTO OH...
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO EXIST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT EARLY FRI ACROSS IL AND IND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HEATING WILL
OCCUR AND WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 50S F WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. DEEP
SWLY FLOW...INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KT IN THE MIDLEVELS SHOULD HELP
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY...AND A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. THE THREAT SHOULD MAINLY BE
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND WANE AFTER SUNSET.

..JEWELL.. 04/19/2012

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KMFR [191714]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 191714
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1014 AM PDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1011 AM HEAVY RAIN NE BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
04/19/2012 M3.32 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL. 1.37 INCHES FELL SINCE 10 PM LAST
NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1.95 INCHES FELL IN THE PREVIOUS 24
HOURS ENDING AT 10 PM LAST NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING WITH LIGHT WIND.


&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191632
SWODY1
SPC AC 191631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM KS/MO
TO OK AND NRN TX...

...ERN KS TO WRN MO...
SURFACE LOW ACROSS KS THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NEWD TO NRN MO/SRN IA
BY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW WILL SPREAD
INTO ERN/SERN KS AND NWRN MO THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN ACROSS
MOST OF MO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

STRONG DYNAMICS AND LESSENING DEEP LAYER STATIC STABILITY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONSEQUENT LOW-LEVEL
MASS ADJUSTMENTS WILL SUPPORT MODEST WARM SECTOR MOISTURE ADVECTION
THAT...WHEN COMBINED WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...MAY RESULT IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID 50S F AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SBCAPE
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG FROM ERN KS INTO NRN MO. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT SUBSTANTIALLY MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND HEATING
WILL BE REQUIRED TO OVERCOME THE MAGNITUDE OF ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS...MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND/OR IN THE WAKE OF
COLD FROPA WHERE FOCUSED MESOSCALE ASCENT IN CONCERT WITH LARGER
SCALE FORCING CAN ACT TO OVERCOME STRONG CAPPING.

BULK SHEAR OF 35-40KT WILL LIKELY AID IN UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND THE
PRESENCE OF COLD/DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE HAIL
PRODUCTION AS QLCS SPREADS ESEWD ACROSS SERN KS AND INTO MO THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING. STRONGER WIND GUST POTENTIAL APPEARS MOST LIKELY
WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY OVER KS/NWRN MO PRIOR TO POST-FRONTAL AND
DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SETTING IN.

...OK TO NW TX...
REVIEW OF LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND SURFACE/UA ANALYSIS
SUGGEST THAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OK AND NW TX MAY BE DELAYED
UNTIL AROUND 00Z. WHILE THESE AREAS ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND...EVEN WITH
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F.
STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL FURTHER
OFFSET ANY EARLY/PERCEIVED GAINS IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THESE
AREAS BUT A CORRIDOR OF CAPPED SBCAPE NEARING 2000 J/KG SEEMS
POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE.

EXPECT COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NWRN OK SWWD ACROSS THE
TX PNHDL...TO MOVE INTO CNTRL OK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS SWRN OK/NWRN
TX. TSTM INITIATION IN THIS SCENARIO APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION SOMEWHERE NEAR/SOUTH OF RED RIVER IN THE
23-01Z TIME FRAME. SUPERCELL SHEAR PROFILES ARE INDICATED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA BUT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER/HIGH LFC
SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL TO VERY ISOLATED AND BRIEF IF AT ALL.
LARGE HAIL DOES APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT BUT OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE AS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO WARRANT SIGNIFICANT HAIL PROBABILITIES.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FROM NERN INTO CNTRL
OK THROUGH THE EVENING. STORM EVOLUTION HERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THAT DESCRIBED FOR KS/MO. A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL POST-FRONTAL MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
TX/OK PNHDLS LATE AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO WRN AND CNTRL OK
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL.

..CARBIN/COHEN.. 04/19/2012

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KJAX [191513]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 191513
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1113 AM EDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 AM WILDFIRE 12 SSE FARGO 30.54N 82.46W
04/19/2012 BAKER FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE COUNTY LINE WILDFIRE WAS 80 PERCENT CONTAINED AS OF
4/18/2012. THE FIRE HAD BURNED ABOUT 34,936 ACRES.


&&

$$

AENYEDI

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KLOT [191353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 191353
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
853 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM HAIL LOVES PARK 42.34N 89.01W
04/19/2012 E0.25 INCH WINNEBAGO IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191247
SWODY1
SPC AC 191245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS NE INTO THE
LWR MO VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
TREND TOWARD INCREASED AMPLIFICATION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST THIS
PERIOD AS HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE W CST INDUCE DEEPENING/DECELERATION
OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH NOW OVER THE RCKYS/HI PLNS. LEAD IMPULSE
WITHIN THE TROUGH...NOW OVER NW KS...SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES
ENE TO THE UPR MS VLY THIS EVE. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF ILL-DEFINED
DISTURBANCES NOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SHOULD MOVE SEWD.
ONE OF THESE FEATURES WILL REACH THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVE...AND
CNTRL OK/NW TX EARLY FRI.

AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW NOW OVER SW KS SHOULD MOVE NE ALONG STALLING
CNTRL PLNS COLD FRONT INTO NRN MO THIS EVE...AND TO NEAR CHICAGO
EARLY FRI...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. FARTHER S...APPROACH
OF UPSTREAM UPR IMPULSE AND DAYTIME HEATING LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN A
SEPARATE...NEARLY STNRY SFC LOW OVER NW TX/SW OK TODAY. THIS
LOW...AND DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW FROM THE LOW...LIKELY
WILL BE OVERTAKEN ACCELERATING SFC COLD FRONT TNGT AND EARLY FRI.

...NW TX/MUCH OF OK INTO LWR MO VLY THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS AND GPS/SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED OVER THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
REMAINING AOB 60F. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK...WHERE PERSISTENT LOW LVL
SSWLY FLOW AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION MAY BOOST PW TO AROUND 1.25
INCHES.

WHILE MEAGER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...SWLY MID LVL FLOW ON ERN
SIDE OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT EML/STEEP MID LVL LAPSE
RATE PLUME NEWD ATOP MOIST AXIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE.
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT SBCAPE TO RANGE FROM AROUND
500 J/KG IN SRN IA/NRN MO TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN SW OK/NW TX BY LATE
IN THE DAY. EML CAP LIKELY WILL DELAY STORM INITIATION. BUT
COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...FRONTAL UPLIFT...AND INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG THE FRONT
FROM IA/NRN MO THROUGH ERN KS INTO NW OK BY LATE AFTN.

50 KT MID LVL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIND PROFILES EXHIBITING
MODERATE DEEP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAT SHOULD FOSTER BOTH SUSTAINED
MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. FAIRLY STRONG LOW LVL LINEAR
FORCING AND SIZABLE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS...WITH THE MAIN SVR THREATS
BEING DMGG WIND AND HAIL THROUGH THIS EVE.

FARTHER S...OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM A BIT LATER IN THE DAY OR
THIS EVE NEAR COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION AND SFC LOW OVER NW
TX AND SW OK. DEEP SHEAR AND ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
THIS EVE AS UPR IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SETUP MAY PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLD DMGG WIND. IN ADDITION...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT INTO THE EVE AS LLJ NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENS AND
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS DIMINISH. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LVL SHEAR
DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...SHOULD LIMIT DURATION OF SUCH A THREAT.

WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM THROUGH EARLY FRI FROM THE
SRN PLNS NEWD INTO THE NRN OZARKS/MID MS VLY...THE SVR THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS THE CONVECTION AND BUOYANCY
LESSENS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.

..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 04/19/2012

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 190826
SWOD48
SPC AC 190825

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES AS ERN LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH...THE PROSPECT FOR MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURNING INLAND WILL REMAIN LOW.

..DARROW.. 04/19/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190704
SWODY3
SPC AC 190702

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...FL...

WHILE THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ADHERES TO THE OVERALL TRENDS
OF EARLIER MODEL DATA REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE NWRN GULF BASIN...A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND SWD SHIFT IS NOTED. IN
FACT THE LATEST GFS DIGS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND PREVENTS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FROM SPREADING
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A BAND OF 50-60KT 500MB FLOW EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA BY 22/12Z. GIVEN THESE TRENDS
HAVE LOWERED THE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE SERN U.S. TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED/PLACEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH LATE IN
THE PERIOD. WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE NOTED
DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MORE THEN 5% PROBS.

..DARROW.. 04/19/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190600
SWODY1
SPC AC 190559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX...OK..ERN KS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION ON
THURSDAY AS A SYNOPTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY. SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL AFFECT
THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. SFC LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD THROUGH UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NRN STREAM FEATURE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THIS
LOW WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. BY LATE AFTERNOON
THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM ERN KS SWWD TO A WEAK SFC LOW IN
NWRN TX. A DRYLINE WILL EXIST SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN TX. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD OVERNIGHT.

...NWRN TX THROUGH OK...ERN KS AND THE MID MS VALLEY AREA...

WITH DEWPOINTS OVER THE WRN GULF ONLY IN THE MID 50S...BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH ABOVE WHAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY WLY FLOW
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES EWD ABOVE AXIS OF LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS. THIS PROCESS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE FROM NWRN-NCNTRL TX INTO OK AND ERN KS WITH HIGHER CAPE
LIKELY RESIDING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE EWD TRANSPORT OF THE EML
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP. HOWEVER...FRONTAL FORCING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STORMS DEVELOPING FROM IA SWWD THROUGH ERN KS INTO NWRN OK
BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WILL
SUPPORT BOTH MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT
TENDENCY MAY BE FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LINE
SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT INTERSECTION AND NEAR WEAK SFC LOW OVER NWRN TX OR SWRN OK.
DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION WILL INCREASE TO 45-50 KT BY
EVENING AS MID LEVEL JET ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE WEAK
INITIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS. NEVERTHELESS...A SMALL WINDOW MAY
EXIST FOR A TORNADO AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 04/19/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190528
SWODY2
SPC AC 190527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TX...

...SOUTH TX...

CNTRL ROCKIES SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE THE UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER
EAST TX DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. 12HR HEIGHT FALLS ON
THE ORDER OF 60M WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A SURGING COLD FRONT BY 21Z ACROSS SERN/SCNTRL TX DURING PEAK
HEATING. PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND SFC DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION.
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTRAORDINARY...SFC-6KM
VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 25-35KT AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS ALONG ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT SPREADS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR AND NERN TX. THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR...THOUGH SHEAR IS ALSO SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AS
WELL.

...OH VALLEY...

ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW OVER SERN LOWER MI/SRN ON AT
18Z...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY INTO SRN IND. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SFC PARCELS
TO FREELY CONVECT. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION THUS WILL
INTRODUCE A 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WIND
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 04/19/2012

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KMOB [190451]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 190451
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1151 PM CDT WED APR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1239 PM RIP CURRENTS GULF SHORES 30.25N 87.70W
04/18/2012 BALDWIN AL BROADCAST MEDIA

16 YEAR OLD BOY IN CRITICAL CONDITION AFTER BEING CAUGHT
IN A RIP CURRENT.

0215 PM RIP CURRENTS GULF SHORES 30.25N 87.70W
04/18/2012 BALDWIN AL BROADCAST MEDIA

14 YEAR OLD BOY DIED AFTER BEING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT.

&&

$$

DONS

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