Tuesday, November 2, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030057
SWODY1
SPC AC 030055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SMALL WARM SECTOR TO REMAIN OVER AND/OR NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD...LOW TORNADO /2%/ AND WIND
/5%/ PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE
FROM SERN LA TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE ERN PART OF THESE
PROBABILITIES HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE E...GIVEN
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT.

EARLY EVENING OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
500-1000 J PER KG/ ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...ALONG AND S OF A
WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED WNWWD FROM JUST S OF AAF THROUGH THE WRN
FL PANHANDLE AND THEN WWD TO A SURFACE LOW IN S CENTRAL LA /25 N
LFT/. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A
DEEPENING CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD THE
UPPER TX COAST. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NRN GULF/
ADJACENT INLAND AREAS AND LOW LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND 35 KT/ AND EFFECTIVE SRH /100-200 M2
PER S2/ SUGGEST A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

..PETERS.. 11/03/2010

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KMOB [022308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...correction To Time Of Event

NWUS54 KMOB 022308
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION TO TIME OF EVENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
603 PM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 1 NW PENSACOLA 30.43N 87.21W
11/02/2010 E1.75 INCH ESCAMBIA FL PUBLIC

NEAR INTERSECTION OF MICHIGAN AND FAIRVIEW


&&

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KMOB [022306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 022306
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
603 PM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 1 NW PENSACOLA 30.43N 87.21W
11/02/2010 E1.75 INCH ESCAMBIA FL PUBLIC

NEAR INTERSECTION OF MICHIGAN AND FAIRVIEW


&&

$$

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KMOB [022304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 022304
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
603 PM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0558 PM HAIL 1 NW PENSACOLA 30.43N 87.21W
11/02/2010 E1.75 INCH ESCAMBIA FL PUBLIC

NEAR INTERSECTION OF MICHIGAN AND FAIRVIEW


&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021927
SWODY1
SPC AC 021926

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COAST...

5% WIND AND 2% TORNADO PROBABILITY LINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
EWD TO ACCOUNT FOR N-S BAND OF DISCRETE STORMS NEAR AND S OF MOBILE
BAY. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 2035.

..MEAD.. 11/02/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010/

A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EAST TX DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF LA/MS...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRAILING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST
TX/SOUTHEAST OK. THE ONLY AREA WHERE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
REMAINS IS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LA AHEAD OF N-S ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE LINE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F WILL HELP TO YIELD
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE /3KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2/...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN OCCASIONAL ROTATING STORM WITH A RISK OF A BRIEF
TORNADO OR WIND GUST. OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS RATHER LOW ACROSS LA/MS TODAY.

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KSHV [021918]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KSHV 021918
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
217 PM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM HAIL SAN AUGUSTINE 31.53N 94.11W
11/01/2010 E0.75 INCH SAN AUGUSTINE TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0842 PM HAIL 2 N BLANCHARD 32.62N 93.89W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH CADDO LA BROADCAST MEDIA

0909 PM HAIL 4 S BOSSIER CITY 32.47N 93.66W
11/01/2010 E0.75 INCH BOSSIER LA NWS EMPLOYEE

0915 PM HAIL 4 S BOSSIER CITY 32.46N 93.66W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH BOSSIER LA BROADCAST MEDIA

0922 PM HAIL 4 ENE BOSSIER CITY 32.54N 93.60W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH BOSSIER LA NWS EMPLOYEE

0922 PM HAIL HAUGHTON 32.53N 93.51W
11/01/2010 E0.50 INCH BOSSIER LA PUBLIC

0950 PM HAIL HAUGHTON 32.53N 93.51W
11/01/2010 M0.50 INCH BOSSIER LA NWS EMPLOYEE

0955 PM HAIL 8 WNW STONEWALL 32.31N 93.94W
11/01/2010 E0.75 INCH CADDO LA TRAINED SPOTTER

PENYY SIZED HAIL IN KEITHVILLE

0958 PM HAIL PLAIN DEALING 32.91N 93.70W
11/01/2010 E1.75 INCH BOSSIER LA BROADCAST MEDIA

1009 PM HAIL PLAIN DEALING 32.91N 93.70W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH BOSSIER LA BROADCAST MEDIA

1010 PM HAIL 6 S SHREVEPORT 32.38N 93.80W
11/01/2010 E0.88 INCH CADDO LA TRAINED SPOTTER

1054 PM HAIL NASHVILLE 33.94N 93.85W
11/01/2010 E1.25 INCH HOWARD AR TRAINED SPOTTER

1100 PM HAIL NASHVILLE 33.94N 93.85W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH HOWARD AR TRAINED SPOTTER

1104 PM HAIL NASHVILLE 33.94N 93.85W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH HOWARD AR TRAINED SPOTTER

1115 PM HAIL 5 ENE NASHVILLE 33.98N 93.78W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH HEMPSTEAD AR PUBLIC

0236 AM HAIL TENAHA 31.94N 94.24W
11/02/2010 E1.00 INCH SHELBY TX PUBLIC

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN TENAHA.


&&

$$

12

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KLCH [021845]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 021845
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
145 PM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 39 SSW PECAN ISLAND 29.12N 92.70W
11/02/2010 M65 MPH GMZ472 LA PUBLIC

PLATFORM VERMILLION 119 REPORTED WINDS OF 60-65 MPH AND
SEAS OF 12 FEET.


&&

$$

DJONES

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KLCH [021748]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 021748
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1248 PM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 24 S PECAN ISLAND 29.30N 92.38W
11/02/2010 M40 MPH GMZ452 LA PUBLIC

OIL PLATFORM VERMILION 67 REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
AT 700 AM.


&&

$$

JNUNN

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KLCH [021744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 021744
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1244 PM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 11 SW ROCKEFELLER WILDL 29.59N 92.91W
11/02/2010 E40 MPH GMZ452 LA PUBLIC

OIL PLATFORM EAST CAMERON 14 REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH OR GREATER BETWEEN 500 AM AND 515AM.


&&

$$

JNUNN

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KLCH [021739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 021739
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1238 PM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 25 S RUTHERFORD BEACH 29.42N 93.17W
11/02/2010 E46 MPH GMZ472 LA PUBLIC

OIL PLATFORM WEST CAMERON 144 REPORTED WINDS OF 46 MPH
BETWEEN 315 AM AND 415 AM.


&&

$$

JNUNN

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KLCH [021732]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 021732
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1232 PM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 20 SSE CONSTANCE BEACH 29.49N 93.51W
11/02/2010 E45 MPH GMZ450 LA PUBLIC

OIL PLATFORM WEST CAMERON 130 REPORTED WINDS OF 45 MPH OR
GREATER BETWEEN 245 AM AND 345 AM.


&&

$$

JNUNN

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KLCH [021729]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 021729
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1229 PM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SSE JOHNSON BAYOU 29.64N 93.59W
11/02/2010 E40 MPH GMZ450 LA PUBLIC

OIL PLATFORM WEST CAMERON 45 REPORTED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM.


&&

$$

JNUNN

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KSEW [021701]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 021701
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1001 AM PDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN S KENMORE 47.76N 122.24W
11/02/2010 M2.00 INCH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING.


&&

$$

GRUB

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2035

ACUS11 KWNS 021657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021657
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-021930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LOWER MS DELTA REGION -- SERN LA...EXTREME
SRN MS...COASTAL AL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021657Z - 021930Z

SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...IN
FORM OF MRGL CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF/WEAK
TORNADO.

PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND IS EVIDENT FROM ST JAMES PARISH SWD ACROSS
TERREBONNE PARISH AND OVER GULF...GENERALLY TRANSLATING EWD 10-15 KT
WITH LOCAL ACCELERATIONS NEAR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS. BROAD AND/OR
WEAK CIRCULATIONS ALOFT HAVE BEEN EVIDENT SO FAR IN RADAR VELOCITY
DATA. A FEW TSTMS ALSO HAVE FORMED FARTHER NE...EMBEDDED WITHIN
BROADER AREA OF PRECIP OVER WASHINGTON/ST TAMMANY PARISHES. SFC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM ST TAMMANY PARISH
ACROSS MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY...DRIFTING NWD. WEAK MESOLOW IS EVIDENT
ALONG MAIN TSTM BAND OVER LA COAST...THOUGH PRESSURE CHANGES AHEAD
OF IT ARE RATHER WEAK. AS NOTED IN 1630Z DAY-1 OUTLOOK...OBSERVED
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STG...WITH 0-3 KM AGL SRH
GENERALLY NEAR 100 J/KG PER LIX VWP. THIS IS LOWER THAN RECENT RUC
FCST SOUNDINGS FOR THAT LOCATION...ALTHOUGH AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER W
NEAR MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND N NEAR WARM FRONT MAY EXPERIENCE
ENHANCED INFLOW AND HODOGRAPH SIZE NOT SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL
PLATFORMS.

MEANWHILE...VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SUSTAINED CLOUD BREAKS OVER
NEAR-COASTAL AREAS OF MS/AL...PERMITTING DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND
EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING SFC WARM FRONT INLAND. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BECOMES WEAKER WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS AL INTO FL PANHANDLE. THIS
TENDENCY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z AS RELATIVELY
BACKED SFC WINDS MAINTAIN TRAJECTORIES FROM LOWER-THETAE AIR MASS N
OF WARM FRONT. FRONT ITSELF SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS AL
ALSO. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG
AND S OF WARM FRONT THROUGH AFTERNOON.

..EDWARDS.. 11/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 29099082 29749070 30179093 30439033 31068989 31168956
31108893 30848859 30588830 30248762 30228831 30218841
30238876 30198894 30188916 30048881 29858879 29608896
29468921 29398932 29348916 29208898 29068905 29048913
28988912 29108924 28918935 28928945 29148940 29258962
29328986 29089014 29029045 29099060 29099082

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021631
SWODY2
SPC AC 021631

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE INITIALLY ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST WILL DEVELOP
SSEWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING POLAR BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
OH VALLEY. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN THE GRADUAL SWD
DISPLACEMENT SURFACE WARM SECTOR FROM THE GULF COAST TO OFFSHORE.

...GULF COAST...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT AN AXIS OF
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL INITIALLY BE PRESENT OVER SRN LA WED MORNING
WITHIN A MODERATELY SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED BY: 1) THE CONTINUED
SEWD PROGRESSION OF MCS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS FROM SERN LA INTO THE
NWRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND 2) THE EXPECTATION THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND
CNTRL GULF COAST. AS SUCH...NO SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE
INTRODUCED TO THE DAY TWO FORECAST.

..MEAD.. 11/02/2010

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KEWX [021625]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 021625
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1124 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1117 PM HAIL 3 E SEA WORLD 29.47N 98.66W
11/01/2010 M1.25 INCH BEXAR TX COCORAHS

1127 PM HAIL SEA WORLD 29.46N 98.70W
11/01/2010 E1.75 INCH BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

1130 PM HAIL 1 ESE LEON VALLEY 29.49N 98.60W
11/01/2010 E0.50 INCH BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO NICKEL CORNER OF EVERS AND WURZBACH.

1134 PM HAIL 3 E SEA WORLD 29.46N 98.65W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH BEXAR TX AMATEUR RADIO

1139 PM HAIL 2 N SEA WORLD 29.49N 98.70W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH BEXAR TX AMATEUR RADIO


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000533 EWX1000529 EWX1000532 EWX1000530 EWX1000531

$$

AKF

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KEWX [021624]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 021624
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1124 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1117 PM HAIL 3 E SEA WORLD 29.47N 98.66W
11/01/2010 M1.25 INCH BEXAR TX COCORAHS


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000533

$$

AKF

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021614
SWODY1
SPC AC 021612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EAST TX DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF LA/MS...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRAILING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST
TX/SOUTHEAST OK. THE ONLY AREA WHERE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
REMAINS IS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LA AHEAD OF N-S ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE LINE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F WILL HELP TO YIELD
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE /3KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2/...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN OCCASIONAL ROTATING STORM WITH A RISK OF A BRIEF
TORNADO OR WIND GUST. OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS RATHER LOW ACROSS LA/MS TODAY.

..HART/ROGERS.. 11/02/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020754
SWOD48
SPC AC 020754

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS DURING THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. SEVERE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..DARROW.. 11/02/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2034

ACUS11 KWNS 020740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020740
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-020945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...WRN LA...SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738...739...

VALID 020740Z - 020945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
738...739...CONTINUES.

A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD
ACROSS CNTRL AND NW TX WITH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. FARTHER SW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD INTO THE
MIDDLE TX COAST AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...NO ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCHES ARE
FORESEEN.

..JEWELL.. 11/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
BRO...

LAT...LON 28009986 29659867 30839665 31739560 33009427 33619364
33679319 33589213 33179154 31759195 30279196 29679215
29609375 28759522 28319626 27719701 27219732 27269866
27539943 28009986

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KSHV [020737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 020737
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0236 AM HAIL TENAHA 31.94N 94.24W
11/02/2010 E1.00 INCH SHELBY TX PUBLIC

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN TENAHA.


&&

$$

MBERRY

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KTFX [020716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 020716
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
116 AM MDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/01/2010 M63.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

63 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/01/2010 M79.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

79 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

0218 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N LOMA 47.95N 110.50W
11/01/2010 M53.00 MPH CHOUTEAU MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTH OF LOMA.

0224 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
11/01/2010 M52.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

52 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W SAINT MARY 48.74N 113.71W
11/01/2010 M75.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

75 MPH WIND GUST AT THE LOGAN PASS VISITOR CENTER.

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/01/2010 M80.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

80 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W SAINT MARY 48.74N 113.71W
11/01/2010 M79.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

79 MPH WIND GUST AT THE LOGAN PASS VISITOR CENTER.

0800 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/01/2010 M0.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

78 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W SAINT MARY 48.74N 113.71W
11/01/2010 M90.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

90 MPH WIND GUST AT THE LOGAN PASS VISITOR CENTER.

0341 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GREAT FALLS 47.48N 111.39W
11/01/2010 M58.00 MPH CASCADE MT ASOS

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/01/2010 M65.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

65 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

1023 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/01/2010 M53.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

53 MPH WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.


&&

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF HIGH WIND REPORTS FROM MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [020716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 020716
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
115 AM MDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0218 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N LOMA 47.95N 110.50W
11/01/2010 M53.00 MPH CHOUTEAU MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTH OF LOMA.

0224 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
11/01/2010 M52.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

52 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W SAINT MARY 48.74N 113.71W
11/01/2010 M79.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

79 MPH WIND GUST AT THE LOGAN PASS VISITOR CENTER.

0800 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/01/2010 M0.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

78 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W SAINT MARY 48.74N 113.71W
11/01/2010 M90.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

90 MPH WIND GUST AT THE LOGAN PASS VISITOR CENTER.

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/01/2010 M65.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

65 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

1023 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/01/2010 M53.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

53 MPH WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020706
SWODY3
SPC AC 020705

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...FL...

UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL BE SHUNTED INTO THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO
BEFORE IT FINALLY EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY3 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL COMPETE SOMEWHAT
WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC COAST AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD
OF DEEPENING OH VALLEY TROUGH BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. LATEST NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A FRONTAL ZONE WILL EASE INTO
THE NRN THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...PER
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC COAST...EXTENDING WSWWD INTO
SFC LOW BENEATH GOM UPPER LOW. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN BOTH
MODELS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL FL
PENINSULA EARLY...WELL AHEAD OF MAIN FORCING THAT WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE. THIS EARLY WAVE WILL LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION AND SERVE TO VEER FLOW ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...MINIMIZING CONVERGENCE WITH PRIMARY FORCING. FOR THIS
REASON IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE SUPPRESSED. HAVE INTRODUCED 5% PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE...BOTH
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL WAVE AND PERHAPS ALONG MAIN FRONTAL
SURGE...THOUGH STRENGTH OF SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT
QUESTIONABLE AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
REDUCED LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 11/02/2010

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KFWD [020702]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 020702
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
202 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0201 AM HAIL 4 S ELKHART 31.56N 95.58W
11/02/2010 E1.00 INCH ANDERSON TX CO-OP OBSERVER

4 S OF ELKHART

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020552
SWODY1
SPC AC 020551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER TX WILL EVOLVE
INTO A CLOSED LOW...CENTERED ALONG THE MIDDLE-UPPER TX COAST BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE TX
TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SWRN LA AT THE START OF
DAY 1...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ALONG THE TX COAST TO DEEP S
TX. DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVING SSEWD...THE SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT SHOULD EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E/SEWD WITH THE LOW REACHING THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LA COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

...E TX/WRN LA...
AT 12Z TODAY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG AND E OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM FAR E TX/LA SSWWD ALONG THE TX COAST AND OVER THE
ADJACENT WRN GULF. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING ACROSS E TX/WRN LA AS THIS REGION WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE
EXIT REGION OF A 50 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET...WHILE THE TX COAST
ACTIVITY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WEAK INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS AN EARLY
DAY 1 THREAT. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS ESEWD ACROSS SRN LA AND THE NWRN GULF AS
TX TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.

...SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN LA TO FAR SERN MS...
MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL WARM SECTOR WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SHOULD EXIST TODAY FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SERN LA. HOWEVER...WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY. AS THE SWLY MID-UPPER
LEVEL JET TRANSLATES INTO THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF TO ALONG THE LA/
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND DPVA SHIFTS EWD...MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF
CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL PROGRESS EWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING OVER SRN LA SUGGESTING THE INLAND PORTION OF THE TSTM LINE
MAY CONSIST OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. WEAKER LAPSE RATES SHOULD
LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT...WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING A BRIEF TORNADO
AND/OR STRONGER WIND GUST. HOWEVER...EVEN THESE LATTER TWO SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS SHOULD BE LOW GIVEN WEAKER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
INLAND FROM THE COAST.

..PETERS/SMITH.. 11/02/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020513
SWODY2
SPC AC 020513

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COAST...

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE THEIR EARLIER TRENDS REGARDING
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST INTO THE NWRN GULF
OF MEXICO BY 04/12Z. THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHIFTING INTO THE CNTRL GOM WHERE H5 FLOW WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 50KT...THOUGH MUCH WEAKER ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST.
EQUALLY SIGNIFICANT WILL BE THE SWD SHIFT OF INSTABILITY AS OFFSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND FORCES THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE WARMER
WATERS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A NARROW WEDGE OF MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY LINGER OVER SRN LA EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE THE
STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS SOUTH. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE UPCOMING DAY1
PERIOD AND OVERTURNING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STABILIZATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. FOR THIS REASON BUOYANCY MAY ULTIMATELY PROVE
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 11/02/2010

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KEWX [020456]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 020456
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1156 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM HAIL 1 ESE LEON VALLEY 29.49N 98.60W
11/01/2010 E0.50 INCH BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO NICKEL CORNER OF EVERS AND WURZBACH.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000532

$$

CJM

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KEWX [020440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 020440
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1140 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1139 PM HAIL 2 N SEA WORLD 29.49N 98.70W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH BEXAR TX AMATEUR RADIO


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000531

$$

CJM

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KSHV [020438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 020438
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1138 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 PM HAIL 5 ENE NASHVILLE 33.98N 93.78W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH HEMPSTEAD AR PUBLIC


&&

$$

12

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KEWX [020436]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 020436
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1135 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1134 PM HAIL 3 E SEA WORLD 29.46N 98.65W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH BEXAR TX AMATEUR RADIO


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000530

$$

CJM

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KEWX [020428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 020428
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1128 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1127 PM HAIL SEA WORLD 29.46N 98.70W
11/01/2010 E1.75 INCH BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000529

$$

CJM

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KSHV [020421]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 020421
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1104 PM HAIL NASHVILLE 33.94N 93.85W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH HOWARD AR TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

12

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KSHV [020405]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 020405
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1105 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1054 PM HAIL NASHVILLE 33.94N 93.85W
11/01/2010 E1.25 INCH HOWARD AR TRAINED SPOTTER

1100 PM HAIL NASHVILLE 33.94N 93.85W
11/01/2010 E1.00 INCH HOWARD AR TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

12

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KSHV [020402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 020402
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1102 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0958 PM HAIL PLAIN DEALING 32.91N 93.70W
11/01/2010 E1.75 INCH BOSSIER LA BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

12

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