SWODY1
SPC AC 030055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010
VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SMALL WARM SECTOR TO REMAIN OVER AND/OR NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD...LOW TORNADO /2%/ AND WIND
/5%/ PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE
FROM SERN LA TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE ERN PART OF THESE
PROBABILITIES HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE E...GIVEN
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT.
EARLY EVENING OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
500-1000 J PER KG/ ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...ALONG AND S OF A
WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED WNWWD FROM JUST S OF AAF THROUGH THE WRN
FL PANHANDLE AND THEN WWD TO A SURFACE LOW IN S CENTRAL LA /25 N
LFT/. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A
DEEPENING CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD THE
UPPER TX COAST. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NRN GULF/
ADJACENT INLAND AREAS AND LOW LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND 35 KT/ AND EFFECTIVE SRH /100-200 M2
PER S2/ SUGGEST A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
..PETERS.. 11/03/2010
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