KGID [032306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 032306
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
605 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 PM HAIL 3 NE IONIA 39.69N 98.31W
09/03/2009 E1.00 INCH JEWELL KS PUBLIC

ESTIMATED 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES AS WELL

0510 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE WEBBER 39.97N 98.00W
09/03/2009 M2.05 INCH JEWELL KS PUBLIC

2.05 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON

0528 PM HAIL 6 S JEWELL 39.58N 98.15W
09/03/2009 E1.00 INCH JEWELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0540 PM HAIL 2 NW BELOIT 39.49N 98.13W
09/03/2009 E1.00 INCH MITCHELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY A TRAINED SPOTTER

0542 PM HAIL 1 S BELOIT 39.45N 98.11W
09/03/2009 E1.75 INCH MITCHELL KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0544 PM TSTM WND GST BELOIT 39.47N 98.11W
09/03/2009 E60.00 MPH MITCHELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL BRANCHES DOWN ALONG WITH DIME SIZE HAIL

0555 PM HAIL 4 N HASTINGS 40.65N 98.39W
09/03/2009 M0.50 INCH ADAMS NE NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [032256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 032256
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
556 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL 4 N HASTINGS 40.65N 98.39W
09/03/2009 M0.50 INCH ADAMS NE NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

WESELY

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KTOP [032250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 032250
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
550 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 S JAMESTOWN 39.52N 97.87W
09/03/2009 M2.40 INCH CLOUD KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KGID [032249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 032249
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
549 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0544 PM TSTM WND GST BELOIT 39.47N 98.11W
09/03/2009 E60 MPH MITCHELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL BRANCHES DOWN ALONG WITH DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

$$

WESELY

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KTOP [032249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 032249
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
549 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 S JAMESTOWN 39.52N 97.87W
09/03/2009 CLOUD KS TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN, LARGEST 6 INCHES DIAMETER

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KHGX [032246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 032246
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
546 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL MONTGOMERY 30.39N 95.70W
09/03/2009 M0.88 INCH MONTGOMERY TX AMATEUR RADIO

NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN MONTGOMERY REPORTED BY HAM OPERATOR.

&&

$$

DH

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KGID [032244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 032244
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
544 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0542 PM HAIL 1 S BELOIT 39.45N 98.11W
09/03/2009 E1.75 INCH MITCHELL KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

KING

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KGID [032243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 032243
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
543 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL 2 NW BELOIT 39.49N 98.13W
09/03/2009 E1.00 INCH MITCHELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY A TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KING

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KTOP [032244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 032244
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
543 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 PM HAIL 1 NE GLASCO 39.36N 97.83W
09/03/2009 E1.25 INCH CLOUD KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BYRNE

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 736

WWUS20 KWNS 032236
SEL6
SPC WW 032236
KSZ000-040500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 540 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF SALINA KANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HUTCHINSON KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NCENTRAL KS. WITH 35-40KT OF SHEAR COUPLED WITH MLCAPES AOA
1500 J/KG...POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS AS THEY DEVELOP SWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33025.

...HALES

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KGID [032235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 032235
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
535 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0528 PM HAIL 6 S JEWELL 39.58N 98.15W
09/03/2009 E1.00 INCH JEWELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KING

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KTOP [032234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 032234
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
534 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 6 N GLASCO 39.45N 97.83W
09/03/2009 E1.00 INCH CLOUD KS TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO 55 MPH WINDS

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KTOP [032233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 032233
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
533 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0521 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNW GLASCO 39.43N 97.87W
09/03/2009 E70 MPH CLOUD KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KPSR [032226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 032226
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
326 PM MST THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HAIL GLOBE 33.38N 110.75W
09/03/2009 E0.25 INCH GILA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JROGERS

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KHGX [032225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KHGX 032225
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
525 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL 5 W GRAPELAND 31.49N 95.57W
09/03/2009 E0.50 INCH HOUSTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

MARBLE TO DIME SIZE HAIL 5 MILES WEST OF GRAPELAND.

0215 PM HAIL 7 SW GRAPELAND 31.42N 95.57W
09/03/2009 E0.50 INCH HOUSTON TX PUBLIC

MARBLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT FRONTIER CAMP NEAR LAKE
HOUSTON.

0242 PM HAIL GRAPELAND 31.49N 95.48W
09/03/2009 E0.75 INCH HOUSTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

PENNY SIZE HAIL AT GRAPELAND.

0254 PM HAIL LATEXO 31.39N 95.47W
09/03/2009 E0.88 INCH HOUSTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT LATEXO.

0341 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SW AUSTONIO 31.12N 95.71W
09/03/2009 HOUSTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON HWY 21 6 MILES SW OF AUSTONIO.

0354 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE MIDWAY 31.05N 95.73W
09/03/2009 MADISON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN ON HWY 21 BETWEEN MIDWAY AND TRINITY RIVER.

0400 PM HAIL NEW WAVERLY 30.54N 95.48W
09/03/2009 E0.25 INCH WALKER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

1/4 TO 3/8 INCH HAIL AT NEW WAVERLY.

0400 PM HAIL 2 E MIDWAY 31.03N 95.72W
09/03/2009 E1.25 INCH MADISON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL EAST OF MIDWAY AND 2 MILES SOUTH OF
HWY 21.

0448 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW RICHARDS 30.55N 95.85W
09/03/2009 GRIMES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN AT FM 1486 AND FM 149 JUST NORTHWEST OF
RICHARDS.

&&

$$

DH

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KPUB [032222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 032222
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
422 PM MDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM HAIL 2 W WALSH 37.39N 102.32W
09/03/2009 E0.88 INCH BACA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER WAS DRIVING WHEN HAIL WAS ENCOUNTERED AND COULD
NOT MEASURE HAIL SIZE. HAILSTONES COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

$$

RMG

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KGID [032213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 032213
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
512 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE WEBBER 39.97N 98.00W
09/03/2009 M2.05 INCH JEWELL KS PUBLIC

2.05 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON

&&

$$

NWS

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KTOP [032210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 032210
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
510 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM TSTM WND GST 6 S JAMESTOWN 39.52N 97.87W
09/03/2009 E70 MPH CLOUD KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BYRNE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1992

ACUS11 KWNS 032208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032207
KSZ000-NEZ000-032330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1992
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN NEB AND ADJACENT N CENTRAL/NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032207Z - 032330Z

SCATTERED STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THIS REGION. WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO A FEW
OF THE STRONGEST STORMS...THREAT POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST RADAR LOOP REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
SERN QUARTER OF NEB AND INTO ADJACENT N CENTRAL/NERN KS...ON THE SRN
AND WRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED JUST W OF OMA /OMAHA
NEB/. DAYTIME HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE...MAINLY FROM CENTRAL KS/S CENTRAL NEB
WWD. WITH ROUGHLY 30 KT NWLYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS. WSR-88D CONFIRMS THIS...WITH
VELOCITY DATA REVEALING WEAK ROTATION WITH STORMS NOW OVER JEWELL
AND NWRN CLOUD COUNTY.

WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN THE SLY LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST ACROSS KS
TONIGHT...STORMS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS N CENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS -- WHERE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL IS EVIDENT.
WHILE COVERAGE OF STRONGER CELLS REMAINS LIMITED...AN INCREASE IN
THE NUMBER OF STORMS COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 09/03/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 41499879 41079761 40249715 39999691 39269659 38619691
38429781 38559899 39389971 40249966 40819886 41499879

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KGID [032206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 032206
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
506 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 PM HAIL 3 NE IONIA 39.69N 98.31W
09/03/2009 E1.00 INCH JEWELL KS PUBLIC

ESTIMATED 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES AS WELL

&&

$$

NWS

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KPUB [032154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 032154
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
353 PM MDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TORNADO 15 N ORDWAY 38.44N 103.76W
09/03/2009 CROWLEY CO TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER TRAVELING NORTH...OBSERVED TORNADO COLUMN
TO THEIR SOUTH.

0330 PM TORNADO 10 NE MANZANOLA 38.21N 103.74W
09/03/2009 CROWLEY CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RECEIVED PUBLIC REPORTS OF
TORNADO.

0333 PM TORNADO SE ORDWAY 38.22N 103.76W
09/03/2009 CROWLEY CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

NEIGHBORING COUNTY SHERIFF RECEIVED MULTIPLE PUBLIC
REPORTS.

&&

$$

RMG

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KTOP [032144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 032144
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
444 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL 4 W NORWAY 39.70N 97.85W
09/03/2009 E1.00 INCH REPUBLIC KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL

&&

$$

SBLAIR

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KTOP [032141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 032141
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
441 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0427 PM HAIL 2 E COURTLAND 39.78N 97.85W
09/03/2009 E1.00 INCH REPUBLIC KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL

&&

$$

SBLAIR

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KTOP [032140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 032140
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
440 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0437 PM TSTM WND GST 4 W NORWAY 39.70N 97.85W
09/03/2009 E60 MPH REPUBLIC KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KTOP [032126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 032126
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
426 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM HAIL W COURTLAND 39.78N 97.90W
09/03/2009 E1.75 INCH REPUBLIC KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KHGX [032126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 032126
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
426 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL 5 W GRAPELAND 31.49N 95.57W
09/03/2009 E0.50 INCH HOUSTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

MARBLE TO DIME SIZE HAIL 5 MILES WEST OF GRAPELAND.

0215 PM HAIL 7 SW GRAPELAND 31.42N 95.57W
09/03/2009 E0.50 INCH HOUSTON TX PUBLIC

MARBLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT FRONTIER CAMP NEAR LAKE
HOUSTON.

0242 PM HAIL GRAPELAND 31.49N 95.48W
09/03/2009 E0.75 INCH HOUSTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

PENNY SIZE HAIL AT GRAPELAND.

0254 PM HAIL LATEXO 31.39N 95.47W
09/03/2009 E0.88 INCH HOUSTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT LATEXO.

0341 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SW AUSTONIO 31.12N 95.71W
09/03/2009 HOUSTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON HWY 21 6 MILES SW OF AUSTONIO.

0354 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE MIDWAY 31.05N 95.73W
09/03/2009 MADISON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN ON HWY 21 BETWEEN MIDWAY AND TRINITY RIVER.

0400 PM HAIL 2 E MIDWAY 31.03N 95.72W
09/03/2009 E1.25 INCH MADISON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL EAST OF MIDWAY AND 2 MILES SOUTH OF
HWY 21.

0400 PM HAIL NEW WAVERLY 30.54N 95.48W
09/03/2009 E0.25 INCH WALKER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

1/4 TO 3/8 INCH HAIL AT NEW WAVERLY.

&&

$$

OVERPECK

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KTOP [032121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 032121
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
420 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0419 PM HAIL W COURTLAND 39.78N 97.90W
09/03/2009 E1.00 INCH REPUBLIC KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KGLD [032119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 032119
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
319 PM MDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM HAIL 16 SSW WILD HORSE 38.61N 103.14W
09/03/2009 E0.88 INCH CHEYENNE CO PUBLIC

&&

$$

024

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KTOP [032116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KTOP 032116
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
416 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HAIL 5 NNW COURTLAND 39.85N 97.93W
09/03/2009 E1.75 INCH REPUBLIC KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KTOP [032116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 032116
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
415 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 PM HAIL 5 NNW COURTLAND 39.85N 97.93W
09/03/2009 E1.75 INCH REPUBLIC KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KPUB [032050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 032050
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
250 PM MDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0247 PM HAIL 2 SSE EADS 38.45N 102.76W
09/03/2009 E0.75 INCH KIOWA CO PUBLIC

&&

$$

STARK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1991

ACUS11 KWNS 032046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032046
TXZ000-032245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN INTO N-CENTRAL AND SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032046Z - 032245Z

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN
NARROW ARC NEAR SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN INTO SERN TX. WW
NOT ANTICIPATED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG
SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF HOUSTON INTO THE
FTW AREA AND THEN WWD TO JUST WEST OF LBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED OVER SERN TX WITH DEVELOPMENT NOW
INCREASING TO THE WEST OF LBB AND NEAR FTW WITH CG-LIGHTNING
OBSERVED ATTM. AREA TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BECOME QUITE WARM AND IS SUPPORTING AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FROM N-CENTRAL INTO SERN TX. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ON AREA VWP/PROFILERS REMAINS RATHER WEAK /SFC-6 KM MEAN
WIND AOB 10 KT/...DEEP CONVERGENCE AND HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT RENEWED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW
APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING WWD OVER ERN TX...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SUGGESTS AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH HAIL. PW/S
IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN TX AND 1.2 INTO
W-CENTRAL TX SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS WELL. OVERALL
WEAK ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL/SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE NEED FOR A WW.

..EVANS.. 09/03/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 31259527 30229484 29879550 30159642 31879745 32349830
32969975 33630243 34030250 34210190 33849904 32969702
32049602 31259527

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1990

ACUS11 KWNS 032044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032043
KSZ000-COZ000-032245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1990
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032043Z - 032245Z

20Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK LOW OVER NWRN KS WITH A WRMFNT SEWD
INTO CNTRL KS AND A NLY SURGE MOVING THROUGH NERN CO AND NWRN KS.
TSTMS FORMED EARLIER IN THE AFTN ACROSS ECNTRL CO. INITIALLY OF
PULSE SVR VARIETY...THE TSTM CLUSTER HAS PRODUCED COLD POOLS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM GENERATION SWD INTO SERN CO
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS EXHIBITED
A DEEP MIXED LAYER TOPPED BY MODEST AMOUNTS OF BUOYANCY. NEARLY 40
DEG F SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL AUGMENT DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG AND SVR WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER E...WHILE LLVL HEATING HAS BEEN COMPARATIVELY
WEAKER...BOUNDARY LAYER WAS MUCH MORE MOIST WITH SFC DEW POINTS OF
60-63 DEG F OVER WRN KS. TCU HAS BEEN DVLPG INVOF THE WEAK WIND
SHIFT SURGING SWD INTO WRN KS AND ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG
SERN CO STORM ANVILS. EXPECT THAT A COUPLE DEGREES MORE WARMING
WILL LEAD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS BY 21-22Z. WRN KS RESIDES ALONG WRN
PERIPHERY OF 30-35 KT NWLY MID-LVL FLOW WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT
THE ERN NEB UPR LOW. WEAK ELY/SELY LLVL FLOW WILL AUGMENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG MULTICELLS AND OCNL
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS PSBL. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD INTO SWRN KS DURING THE EVENING.

..RACY.. 09/03/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 38620259 38940134 39360042 39079997 38500018 37470069
37060282 37270356 38460361 38620259

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KGLD [032003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 032003
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 PM MDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL 10 N KIT CARSON 38.91N 102.80W
09/03/2009 E0.75 INCH CHEYENNE CO PUBLIC

&&

$$

HENDERSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 032000
SWODY1
SPC AC 031956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
E-CNTRL CO INTO WRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF KS...

...CNTRL PLAINS...

HIGHER WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES AND A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS AND ERN
CO.

19Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW E OF GLD WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH ERN CO...S OF AN ITR-LIC LINE.
FARTHER E...A WEAK WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WAS
ANALYZED FROM VICINITY OF LOW EWD TO N OF HLC AND THEN MORE SEWD TO
NEAR ICT. FINALLY A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHED FROM
INTERSECTION OF WARM FRONT /NE OF HLC/ NNEWD TO NEAR GRI.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WRN EXTENSION OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
CURRENTLY OVER ERN NEB...IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD FRONT...HAS
INITIATED A CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER E-CNTRL CO AS OF 1930Z.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
ALONG SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS WARM FRONT AND INVERTED
TROUGH FROM WRN KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS
RELATIVELY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WHEN COUPLED WITH
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TO FURTHER
DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

CURRENT PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE A BELT OF MODEST /25-30 KT/ NWLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW PRESENT S OF ERN NEB VORTICITY CENTER WHICH IS
RESULTING IN 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR GIVEN THE BACKED SURFACE
WINDS OVER CNTRL KS ALONG WARM FRONT. THIS SETUP SHOULD FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

LOW POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG INVERTED
TROUGH OVER N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB WHERE LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY AND
VORTICITY AXES COINCIDE. SEE MCD 1989 FOR FURTHER NEAR-TERM DETAILS
ON THIS AREA.

...SRN PLAINS...

CONSIDERABLE MORNING CLOUDS AND ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE
ESTABLISHED A PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN TX
PNHDL ESEWD ALONG THE RED RIVER AND THEN SWD THROUGH ERN TX. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING S AND W OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BOOSTED TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 90S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND A
WEAKENING CAP.

WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE RECENTLY
FOSTERED TSTMS E/SE OF CRS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY
MOVING/DEVELOPING SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG THE REMAINING PORTION OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE /I.E. NWRN AND NRN TX/. MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL TEND TO LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...SOME HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..MEAD.. 09/03/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2009/

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN NEB WILL CONTINUE SETTLING
SSEWD TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDING SW-NE
FROM SRN NEB INTO SERN CO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE
AND AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS HEATING WEAKENS CAPPING AND
PRODUCES MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE CENTRAL KS-NEB
BORDER SWWD INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION AND NERN NM. WEAK SELY
SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS REGION IS
OVERSPREAD BY 25-35 KT OF MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS. THIS SUGGESTS A FEW
MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS...INCLUDING WEAK SUPERCELLS...
COULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH ATTENDANT RISKS OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE
AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST TONIGHT NEAR THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN KS AND TOWARDS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY/NWRN TX AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST NAM/GFS.

...N-CENTRAL/NERN TX AND FAR SRN OK...
SURFACE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NERN TX
INTO SWRN OK/NWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED ALONG AND JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUITE WEAK...CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT AND WEAKENING CAP/INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DRIFT SLOWLY SSEWD WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF
ISOLATED...BRIEF-LIVED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

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KTFX [031954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 031954
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
153 PM MDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM DOWNBURST GREAT FALLS 47.50N 111.29W
09/03/2009 CASCADE MT PUBLIC

A DOWNBURST CAUSED A TREE BRANCH TO FALL NEAR THE
SUNNYSIDE ELEMTRY SCHOOL.

&&

$$

WILLIAMSON DC

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1989

ACUS11 KWNS 031924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031924
NEZ000-KSZ000-032130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1989
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SCNTRL NEB AND NCNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031924Z - 032130Z

LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLD...BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADOES WILL EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL NEB AND NCNTRL KS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AT MID-AFTN...DOWNSTREAM
FROM A MID-LVL CYCLONIC FEATURE MOVING SWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB. MOST
OF THE REGION HAS BEEN CLOUDY...BUT BINOVC AND MODEST STEEPENING OF
THE LLVL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF 0-3KM
CAPE FROM NCNTRL KS NWD INTO SCNTRL NEB. SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT
A WEAK LLVL SHEAR ZONE HAS FORMED FROM BETWEEN KBIE-KHJH NWWD TO
NEAR KODX AND OBJECTIVE FIELDS EXHIBIT INCREASING SFC VORTICITY
BECOMING JUXTAPOSED WITH THE MAXIMUM IN 3KM CAPE. THUS...THERE WILL
BE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO AS TSTMS DEVELOP INVOF
THE BOUNDARY WITHIN A LOW LCL AND VORTICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
EARLY EVE. THIS THREAT MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP SWD INTO NCNTRL KS.

..RACY.. 09/03/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 40939754 40019680 39589704 39399773 39679847 40189865
40809888 41579894 41489827 40939754

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KPDT [031922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 031922
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1222 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0431 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E RUFUS 45.69N 120.70W
09/03/2009 M59.00 MPH SHERMAN OR MESONET

NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 49 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 59 MPH.
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35-45 MPH WITH GUSTS AS STRONG AS
55 MPH WERE MEASURED BETWEEN 1 AM AND 730 AM.

0431 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ENE RUFUS 45.73N 120.65W
09/03/2009 M59.00 MPH SHERMAN OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

AT THE JOHN DAY RIVER BRIDGE ALONG INTERSTATE
84...NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 59
MPH

&&

$$

MJOHNSON

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031715
SWODY2
SPC AC 031712

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LITTLE CHANGE TO LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY TWO
PERIOD...FEATURING A POSITIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH FROM ERN
CANADA INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND A STRONGER TROUGH OFF THE WRN
CANADA AND PACIFIC NW COASTS. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE OZARKS WHILE MORE
PROGRESSIVE PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND
GREAT BASIN.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGGING
SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU REGION.

...OK/N TX INTO ARKLATEX...

LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN DISPLACED INVOF RED RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED FROM NWRN
OK INTO CNTRL AR FRI...BEFORE SAGGING SWD IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CNTRL PLAINS. REGION WILL
RESIDE TO THE E OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT OVER THE
ROCKIES. BUT...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DIABATIC HEATING S OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...WILL YIELD A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.

GLANCING INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE OZARKS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCATTERED
TSTMS ALONG OR ON COOL SIDE OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH
ACTIVITY MOVING/DEVELOPING SWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY FRI
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
/25-30 KT/ VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD.. 09/03/2009

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KTSA [031651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 031651
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0301 AM HAIL 2 N MANNFORD 36.16N 96.35W
09/03/2009 E0.88 INCH CREEK OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

KDJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031614
SWODY1
SPC AC 031611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN NEB WILL CONTINUE SETTLING
SSEWD TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDING SW-NE
FROM SRN NEB INTO SERN CO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE
AND AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS HEATING WEAKENS CAPPING AND
PRODUCES MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE CENTRAL KS-NEB
BORDER SWWD INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION AND NERN NM. WEAK SELY
SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS REGION IS
OVERSPREAD BY 25-35 KT OF MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS. THIS SUGGESTS A FEW
MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS...INCLUDING WEAK SUPERCELLS...
COULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH ATTENDANT RISKS OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE
AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST TONIGHT NEAR THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN KS AND TOWARDS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY/NWRN TX AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST NAM/GFS.

...N-CENTRAL/NERN TX AND FAR SRN OK...
SURFACE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NERN TX
INTO SWRN OK/NWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED ALONG AND JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUITE WEAK...CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT AND WEAKENING CAP/INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DRIFT SLOWLY SSEWD WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF
ISOLATED...BRIEF-LIVED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

..EVANS/GRAMS.. 09/03/2009

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KOHX [031414]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 031414
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
914 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW KINGSTON SPRINGS 36.06N 87.15W
09/03/2009 M5.12 INCH CHEATHAM TN CO-OP OBSERVER

REPORT RECEIVED FROM COCORAHS OBSERVER TN-CH-4.

&&

$$

BBOYD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031257
SWODY1
SPC AC 031254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE LWR 48
THROUGH FRI AS THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS REMAINS CONFINED TO THE
PACIFIC NW AND CANADA. IN THE STATES...GRT BASIN RDG WILL BE
TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IN WA. THE IMPULSE
SHOULD CONTINUE NE INTO ERN AB EARLY FRI AS DOWNSTREAM UPR LOW NOW
IN ERN NEB SETTLES SLOWLY S INTO KS. FARTHER E...A VORT MAX NOW
OVER WRN TN SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY E/ENE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE
TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EAST.

AT LWR LVLS...WEAK FRONT MARKING SW EDGE OF GRT LKS/OH VLY SFC RDG
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY FROM ERN CO/SW KS SSE INTO THE RED RVR VLY
REGION OF OK/TX. FARTHER N...A FRONTAL SEGMENT TIED TO ERN NEB UPR
LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY S FROM WRN/CNTRL NEB INTO NW KS. STILL FARTHER
N/NW...A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NRN
RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WA/AB UPR IMPULSE. IN THE
EAST...INVERTED TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE W TN UPR VORT SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WHILE OLD STNRY FRONT PERSISTS FROM OFF THE NC
CST SW ACROSS CNTRL FL INTO THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO.

...SRN OK INTO N CNTRL/NE TX...
ON-GOING WAA STORMS IN ERN OK/WRN AR SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING AS LLJ WEAKENS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTN ALONG
AND NE OF STALLED SFC FRONT NEAR THE RED RVR AS HEATING AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE MINIMIZE CINH. ERN EXTENSION OF EML PLUME AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S F SHOULD YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE.
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DRIER AND MORE DEEPLY-MIXED WITH SW EXTENT
FROM FRONT...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR STG STORM OUTFLOW...BUT ALSO
REDUCED CAPE. LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND RELATIVELY STG UPR LVL FLOW
/50-60 KTS AT 250 MB/ MAY SUPPORT STORM LONGEVITY/
ORGANIZATION...AND POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR HAIL AND WIND THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT.

...CNTRL PLNS/CNTRL HI PLNS INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES/NE NM...
WIDELY SCTD AFTN/EVE TSTMS EXPECTED INVOF FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH FROM S CNTRL NEB SWWD INTO PARTS OF KS AND SE CO/NE NM.
ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY WEAK BUT DIURNALLY-ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW
IN CO/NM. SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL BE PRESENT OVER
THE LWR PLNS....WITH LWR VALUES FARTHER W. THIS MOISTURE...
COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING...WILL HELP BOOST AFTN SBCAPE TO 1500-2000
J/KG IN WRN/NRN KS AND SRN NEB. BELT OF 30 KT NW MID LVL FLOW ON SW
FLANK OF NEB UPR LOW WILL YIELD 35-40 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR IN WRN/NRN
KS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLE WEAK
SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLD SVR HAIL/WIND.

THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL CLUSTERS THAT PERSIST
SSE INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...PORTIONS WRN OK...AND/OR NW TX LATER
TONIGHT. THESE CLUSTERS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR HAIL/WIND
AS THEY MOVE MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE/INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP SHEAR/ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LLJ
AND DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 09/03/2009

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KMLB [031205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 031205
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0743 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 E COCOA BEACH 28.35N 80.58W
09/03/2009 AMZ552 FL OTHER FEDERAL

FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED MOVING NORTHEAST. DISSIPATED BY
0749 AM EDT.

&&

$$

JRC

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KLMK [031017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 031017
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
617 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0616 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E HARTFORD 37.45N 86.84W
09/03/2009 M3.55 INCH OHIO KY MESONET

3.55 INCHES OF RAIN IN JUST UNDER 2 HOURS AT A KENTUCKY
MESONET SITE JUST EAST OF HARTFORD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900111

$$

JSD

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KLMK [030955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 030955
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
555 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E HARTFORD 37.45N 86.84W
09/03/2009 M2.85 INCH OHIO KY MESONET

2.85 INCHES OF RAIN IN 1 HOUR AND 20 MINUTES MEASURED
BY KENTUCKY MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900110

$$

JSD

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KJAX [030941]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 030941
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
541 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 AM FLOOD 4 NNW BRUNSWICK 31.20N 81.48W
09/03/2009 GLYNN GA BROADCAST MEDIA

SOME HOMES IN THE COLLEGE PARK NEIGHBORHOOD OF BRUNSWICK
HAD TO BE EVACUATED. SOME HOMES HAD WATER 6 INCHES DEEP
INSIDE. THE FLOOD WATERS RESULTED FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

0909 AM FLOOD BRUNSWICK 31.14N 81.47W
09/02/2009 GLYNN GA EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS STREETS WERE CLOSED IN BRUNSWICK DUE TO AREAL
FLOODING. CLOSED STREETS INCLUDED CHAPEL CROSSING,
FAIRWAY OAKS, BELL POINT, FAIRMAN DRIVE, GLEN MARSH,
ENTERPRISE, HORNET DRIVE, SHANGRI LA AVENUE AND
BAYBRIDGE.

&&

$$

AENYEDI

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 030848
SWOD48
SPC AC 030848

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES AMPLIFYING CYCLONIC UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR JET STREAK EMANATING FROM THE
PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A SIZABLE SPREAD...THE
03/00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TROUGH
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND SUGGEST IT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WHILE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE EVOLVING
PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY TO SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

..KERR.. 09/03/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1988

ACUS11 KWNS 030845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030845
OKZ000-031045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 030845Z - 031045Z

HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
EMBEDDED IN A BAND OF CONVECTION OVER NERN OK. RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY OCCUR AS CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS AGAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH A BAND OF STRONG STORMS LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. LIFT WITH THE JET AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NERN OK WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE LATEST GPS PW
DATA IN ERN OK INDICATE A POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IS
PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAXIMIZED AT ABOUT 1.6
INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ANALYZED BY THE
RUC SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HAIL. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE CONVECTION
SOMETIME AFTER DAYBREAK.

..BROYLES.. 09/03/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 36739631 36649648 36279650 35749650 35149633 34919597
35259544 36559583 36749614 36739631

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 030708
SWODY3
SPC AC 030705

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGE COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED
CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT...AND STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS IN THE
VICINITY OF A SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET...ON THE
ORDER OF 50-70+ KT AROUND 500 MB. OTHERWISE... SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES
AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE A WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A LINGERING CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
U.S.

GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NATION...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL
MONTANA...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

...MONTANA...
LOW MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS AND TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
LIKELY WILL BE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO THE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY. LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP...AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING...COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING FLOW/SHEAR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN MONTANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS TO THE
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/LEE TROUGH
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION INTO AN EVOLVING
STORM CLUSTER. IF THIS OCCURS...EVEN IF WEAK CAPE MINIMIZES THE
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...THE REMNANTS OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
DOWNBURSTS WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE
GREAT FALLS AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

..KERR.. 09/03/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030509
SWODY1
SPC AC 030508

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN ALOFT IS FCST TO FEATURE MEAN RIDGING OVER WRN CONUS AND
TROUGHING E OF MS RIVER THROUGH PERIOD. WRN SYNOPTIC RIDGE WILL BE
BREACHED BY STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AS CYCLONE CENTERED INVOF 45N130W -- FCST TO MOVE INLAND
AROUND 3/12Z. THIS PERTURBATION WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS PAC NW EARLY
IN PERIOD...AND ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES FROM ABOUT
4/00Z-4/06Z...REACHING TO NEAR S-CENTRAL AB/SK BORDER BY END OF
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...EACH OF A PAIR OF 500 MB LOWS -- NOW EVIDENT
OVER SERN SD AND SWRN IL -- IS FCST TO PIVOT CYCLONICALLY...LEADING
LOW REACHING OH/WV BORDER AREA AND WRN LOW MOVING ACROSS ERN NEB
TOWARD NERN KS BY 4/12Z.

AT SFC...DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER WRN OK/SWRN KS SHOULD BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY...EXTENDING NWWD TO WEAK SFC LOW OVER W-CENTRAL/NW
KS BY 4/00Z...THEN MERGING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THAT LOW
AND EXTENDING FARTHER NW INTO E-CENTRAL/SERN WY AS COLD FRONT.
PERSISTENT/RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ALSO WILL LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL/SWRN FL PENINSULA...ALMOST DIRECTLY BENEATH AND PARALLEL TO
QUASISTATIONARY/MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...IN SUPPORT OF GEN
TSTM POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA.

...SRN OK TO N-CENTRAL/NE TX...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD NEAR NRN FRINGE OF THIS AREA...ACROSS PORTIONS ERN OK AND/OR
NE TX...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN DURING MID-LATE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL/AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF
SFC FRONTAL ZONE...AS STG SFC HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY MINIMIZED MLCINH. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT MLCAPE
1500-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEW POINTS ONLY IN LOW-MID 60S F. BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND MORE DEEPLY MIXED
WITH SSWWD EXTENT FROM FRONTAL ZONE...SUPPORTING GUST POTENTIAL BUT
ALSO REDUCING CAPE. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK ACROSS
REGION...LIMITING BOTH HODOGRAPH SIZE AND CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND STRONGER
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS -- INCLUDING PROJECTED ANVIL-LEVEL SPEEDS
50-55 KT -- MAY AID IN MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED SVR
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

...S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO SW OK/NW TX...
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IS EXPECTED FROM
S-CENTRAL NEB SWWD ACROSS SERN CO/NERN NM...INVOF SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL
ZONE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CO/NERN NM. SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S
TO LOW 60S WILL BE COMMON AWAY FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...WILL HELP TO YIELD
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. STG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS FCST ACROSS MOST OF
THIS REGION...IN ADDITION TO SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SPEED SHEAR OVER
NRN KS/SRN NEB IN SUPPORT OF AT LEAST MRGL/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL OVER LATTER AREA.

NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY PERSIST SEWD ACROSS TX
PANHANDLE...PORTIONS WRN OK AND/OR NW TX AS UPSCALE/EVOLUTIONARY
EXTENSION OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSTMS MOVING SEWD OFF S-CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL AND
SOME SREF MEMBERS...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO AND
VERY NEAR INSTABILITY/MOISTURE GRADIENT RELATED TO FRONTAL
ZONE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL OR STG/DAMAGING GUSTS. LACK
OF MORE ROBUST SPEEDS ALOFT...AND OF RELATED DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...SHOULD MITIGATE ORGANIZATION OF SVR POTENTIAL...BUT MRGL
THREAT MAY PERSIST SEWD INTO WRN RED RIVER VALLEY REGION....HENCE
SOME SPATIAL OVERLAP WITH AREA COVERED BY ABOVE REGIME EARLIER IN
PERIOD.

..EDWARDS/HURLBUT.. 09/03/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030502
SWODY2
SPC AC 030500

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2009

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS GENERALLY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW
DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME
...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND A WEAK CLOSED LOW
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF/QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK OR WEAKEN FURTHER...WHILE SIMILARLY WEAK FLOW PREVAILS BENEATH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU.

GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION... POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS...BARRING STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EXTREMELY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

..KERR.. 09/03/2009

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KSGX [030439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KSGX 030439
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
939 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0258 PM TSTM WND GST SAN DIEGO COUNTRY ESTAT 33.01N 116.78W
09/02/2009 E50.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTRY ESTATES.

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE RAMONA 33.07N 116.83W
09/02/2009 M1.25 INCH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

A THUNDERSTORM DUMPED 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN AT THE GOOSE
VALLEY RAWS.

0330 PM HAIL 8 ENE RAMONA 33.08N 116.74W
09/02/2009 E0.75 INCH SAN DIEGO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY LAW ENFORECMENT ALONG HIGHWAY
78 NEAR THE WITCH CREEK AREA.

0330 PM HEAVY RAIN MORENO VALLEY 33.93N 117.21W
09/02/2009 M0.55 INCH RIVERSIDE CA COUNTY OFFICIAL

RIVERSIDE COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL REPORTED 0.55 INCHES OF
RAIN IN 24 MINUTES NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE 60
FREEWAY AND MORENO BEACH DRIVE.

0333 PM FLASH FLOOD 7 ENE RAMONA 33.07N 116.76W
09/02/2009 SAN DIEGO CA COUNTY OFFICIAL

FOUR INCHES OF MUD AND WATER WAS REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 78
NEAR WITCH CREEK AFTER A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN
MOVED THROUGH.

0349 PM HEAVY RAIN SAN DIEGO COUNTRY ESTAT 33.01N 116.78W
09/02/2009 M1.06 INCH SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED 1.06 INCHES OF RAIN FROM A
THUNDERSTORM OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTRY ESTATES.

0430 PM HEAVY RAIN DESCANSO 32.85N 116.61W
09/02/2009 M1.23 INCH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

TWO THUNDERSTORMS DUMPED 1.23 INCHES OF RAIN AT THE
DESCANSO RAWS.

&&

$$

SCV

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KSGX [030439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 030439
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
939 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0258 PM TSTM WND GST SAN DIEGO COUNTRY ESTAT 33.01N 116.78W
09/02/2009 E50.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTRY ESTATES.

0349 PM HEAVY RAIN SAN DIEGO COUNTRY ESTAT 33.01N 116.78W
09/02/2009 M1.06 INCH SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED 1.06 INCHES OF RAIN FROM A
THUNDERSTORM OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTRY ESTATES.

&&

$$

SCV

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