SWOD48
SPC AC 030848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2009
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES AMPLIFYING CYCLONIC UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR JET STREAK EMANATING FROM THE
PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A SIZABLE SPREAD...THE
03/00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TROUGH
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND SUGGEST IT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WHILE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE EVOLVING
PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY TO SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
..KERR.. 09/03/2009
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