SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030845
OKZ000-031045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 030845Z - 031045Z
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
EMBEDDED IN A BAND OF CONVECTION OVER NERN OK. RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY OCCUR AS CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS AGAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH A BAND OF STRONG STORMS LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. LIFT WITH THE JET AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NERN OK WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE LATEST GPS PW
DATA IN ERN OK INDICATE A POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IS
PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAXIMIZED AT ABOUT 1.6
INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ANALYZED BY THE
RUC SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HAIL. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE CONVECTION
SOMETIME AFTER DAYBREAK.
..BROYLES.. 09/03/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36739631 36649648 36279650 35749650 35149633 34919597
35259544 36559583 36749614 36739631
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