Monday, October 21, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220102
SWODY1
SPC AC 220100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
VIRTUALLY NIL SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NEAR A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING
FRONT...ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST TX AND THE UPPER TX COAST INTO
PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX. WHILE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS YET THIS EVENING...THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW TSTMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN FL
PENINSULA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITHIN A LOW-TOPPED/MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.

..GUYER.. 10/22/2013

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KMQT [212311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 212311
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
710 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 ESE CHASSELL 47.01N 88.43W
10/21/2013 M2.6 INCH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY SNOW DURATION 1 HOUR OBSERVER LOCATION
LAKE LINDEN



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KCRP [212010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 212010
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
310 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0303 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 NW TAFT 28.00N 97.41W
10/21/2013 SAN PATRICIO TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PORTLAND FIRE DEPARTMENT AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTY
OFFICIALS REPORT A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER AN OPEN FIELD SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 181 AND EAST OF 2965.


&&

$$

JMETZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211948
SWODY1
SPC AC 211946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OTLK. REMOVED POST-COLD FRONTAL AREAS
FROM THUNDER IN CNTRL TX AND ADDED EXTREME S CNTRL/SE LA TO GENERAL
TSTM FCST. ISOLD THUNDER MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SRN LA LATE
TNGT/EARLY TUE AS ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE AHEAD OF
SE TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED SFC HEATING MAY
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WDLY SCTD SHOWER/WEAK TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN
OVER ERN AND SE TX..WHERE MAX LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
BENEATH THE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH. WHILE A SPIN-UP TYPE
FUNNEL/TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS OVER THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE TX GULF CSTL
PLN...WIND PROFILES APPEAR TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN VERY
ISOLD/BRIEF ACTIVITY DESPITE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE.

..CORFIDI.. 10/21/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013/

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER
PARTS OF OK/TX/AR/LA...FL...AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEAK CAPE IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA...AND WEAK SHEAR IN FL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SHOULD
PRECLUDE SEVERE STORMS TODAY.

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KPUB [211807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 211807
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1207 PM MDT MON OCT 21 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 5 NE SPANISH PEAKS 37.43N 104.90W
10/21/2013 M1.5 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0.35 INCH LIQUID FELL LAST NIGHT


&&

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211659
SWODY2
SPC AC 211657

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE/MS-OH VLY TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE. THE TROUGH SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN AS JET STREAK NOW OVER
AB/SK CONTINUES SSE INTO NEB/IA TUE MORNING AND THEN TURNS SE INTO
THE TN VLY LATER TUE/EARLY WED...WHILE DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE TRACKS
FROM LK HURON TO SRN QUE. DRY AND/OR MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL PREVAIL
OVER MOST AREAS...LIMITING BUOYANCY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS.

...FL AND NEARBY STATES...
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON TUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW
CROSSING THE LWR MS VLY. THE FRONT...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OCCURRING TO ITS E...MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW TSTMS AS THE FEATURES CONTINUE ESE ACROSS FL...GA...AND CSTL
SC DURING THE PERIOD. COVERAGE MAY BE GREATEST TUE NIGHT AND EARLY
WED AS UPR DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION STRENGTHENS WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE OH-TN VLY TROUGH. HOWEVER...NEITHER
SHEAR NOR INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER.

...GRT LKS...
LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION MAY SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO YIELD A LOCALIZED
RISK FOR ISOLD THUNDER NEAR LK HURON TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A CATEGORICAL AREA ATTM. VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD ISOLD THUNDER ALSO MAY ACCOMPANY EXISTING LAKE SHOWERS E
OF LK ERIE IN UPSTATE NY AS WIND PROFILES AND INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER DEPTH BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEPER/MORE PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS. BUT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 12Z
WED...AND WILL DEFER TO LATER OTLKS RATHER THAN ADD CATEGORICAL
THUNDER ATTM.

..CORFIDI.. 10/21/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211614
SWODY1
SPC AC 211612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER
PARTS OF OK/TX/AR/LA...FL...AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEAK CAPE IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA...AND WEAK SHEAR IN FL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SHOULD
PRECLUDE SEVERE STORMS TODAY.

..HART.. 10/21/2013

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KDLH [211503]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 211503
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1002 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 2 W BARNUM 46.51N 92.74W
10/21/2013 M2.5 INCH CARLTON MN COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION 2 W BARNUM /5281B/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS


0700 AM SNOW 1 W SILVER BAY 47.29N 91.30W
10/21/2013 M1.4 INCH LAKE MN COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION SILVER BAY /SILM5/
SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0800 AM SNOW 1 SSW GRANTSBURG 45.77N 92.69W
10/21/2013 M1.0 INCH BURNETT WI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION 1 SSW GRANTSBURG /5764C/
SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS DULUTH MN
IRIS SYSTEM

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KCRP [211457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 211457
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
956 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM FLOOD 5 SE GEORGE WEST 28.28N 98.06W
10/21/2013 LIVE OAK TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

COUNTY ROAD 365 GOING INTO RIVER CREEK ACRES IS FLOODED
AND CLOSED DUE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON THE NUECES RIVER.


&&

$$

JMETZ

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KDLH [211347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 211347
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
846 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW UPSON 46.37N 90.41W
10/21/2013 M3.0 INCH IRON WI COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION UPSON /UPSW3/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS


0700 AM SNOW 5 WSW LEGIONVILLE 46.42N 94.30W
10/21/2013 M2.6 INCH CROW WING MN COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION BRAINERD 7NW /BNWM5/
SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0600 AM SNOW 3 NNW BUTTERNUT 46.05N 90.53W
10/21/2013 M2.5 INCH ASHLAND WI COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION 3 N BUTTERNUT /BUTW3/
SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0630 AM SNOW 8 WNW PARK FALLS 45.97N 90.60W
10/21/2013 M2.5 INCH PRICE WI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION 6 WSW SNOW DURATION 24
HOURS


0800 AM SNOW 1 SE MALMO 46.32N 93.50W
10/21/2013 M2.0 INCH AITKIN MN COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION ISLE 12N /ISEM5/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS


0700 AM SNOW 4 SE NAMEKAGON 46.17N 90.98W
10/21/2013 M1.5 INCH BAYFIELD WI COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION CLAM LAKE 4W /CMKW3/
SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0700 AM SNOW 1 S INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.57N 93.40W
10/21/2013 M0.7 INCH KOOCHICHING MN ASOS

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


0800 AM SNOW GORDON 46.24N 91.80W
10/21/2013 M0.2 INCH DOUGLAS WI COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION GORDON /GORW3/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS


1200 AM SNOW 1 NNW LA PRAIRIE 47.24N 93.50W
10/21/2013 M0.1 INCH ITASCA MN COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION USDA FORESTRY SCIENCE
LAB /GRPM5/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS DULUTH MN
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [211339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 211339
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
938 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 2 WNW IRONWOOD 46.47N 90.18W
10/21/2013 M1.0 INCH GOGEBIC MI COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION WWTP. 24 HOUR SNOWFALL
TOTAL. SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMPX [211338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 211338
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
837 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW LONG PRAIRIE 45.98N 94.86W
10/21/2013 M0.9 INCH TODD MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 3 ESE RICE 45.73N 94.17W
10/21/2013 M0.8 INCH BENTON MN COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL

0800 AM SNOW 1 N HEWITT 46.34N 95.09W
10/21/2013 M2.0 INCH TODD MN COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL REPORT.


&&

$$

MKM

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KDLH [211252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 211252
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
751 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 2 SE SPOONER 45.80N 91.87W
10/21/2013 M1.5 INCH WASHBURN WI COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION SARONA /SRAW3/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS DULUTH MN
IRIS SYSTEM

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KDLH [211252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 211252
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
751 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 3 ENE WRIGHT 46.68N 92.95W
10/21/2013 M1.5 INCH CARLTON MN COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION WRIGHT 3E /WRIM5/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS DULUTH MN
IRIS SYSTEM

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KDLH [211251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 211251
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
750 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 4 ESE CASINO 46.40N 94.46W
10/21/2013 M2.0 INCH CASS MN COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION PILLAGER 5.1 N /5727S/ SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS DULUTH MN
IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211248
SWODY1
SPC AC 211245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PATTERN OF AN ERN CONUS TROUGH AND GREAT BASIN RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM
SPEED MAX PROGRESSES SSEWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A WEAKER TRAILING
WAVE WILL MOVE SEWD OVER MO/AR/OK/TX...PRECEDED BY A SLOWLY
WEAKENING FRONTAL SEGMENT ACROSS AR/TX/LA.

A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MIDLEVEL COLD CORE
CROSSES THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS S AND E TX...THOUGH THE
GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER
THE NW GULF...WITHIN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N FL
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...AND FARTHER S INTO CENTRAL/S FL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 10/21/2013

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KMPX [211243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 211243
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
743 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM SNOW ST CLOUD AIRPORT 45.54N 94.05W
10/20/2013 M0.8 INCH SHERBURNE MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

ACCUMULATION OCCURRED BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

0430 AM SNOW 4 NNW VINELAND 46.24N 93.81W
10/21/2013 M2.0 INCH MILLE LACS MN COCORAHS

SNOWFALL BETWEEN 930AM AND 230PM YESTERDAY.

0600 AM SNOW 1 SW LITTLE FALLS 45.97N 94.38W
10/21/2013 M1.0 INCH MORRISON MN COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0630 AM SNOW BRANDON 45.97N 95.60W
10/21/2013 M0.5 INCH DOUGLAS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATED ON CAR. MELTED A FEW
HOURS LATER. 24 HOUR SNOWFALL REPORT.

0700 AM SNOW ST CLOUD 45.55N 94.17W
10/21/2013 M1.0 INCH STEARNS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIV. AN INCH ACCUMULATED ON
GRASS BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON YESTERDAY. SNOW MELTED BY
THIS MORNING. 24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.


&&

$$

MKM

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KMQT [211241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 211241
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
840 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 6 ESE PAULDING 46.36N 89.08W
10/21/2013 M0.8 INCH ONTONAGON MI COOP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER STATION MIDDLE BRANCH
ONTONAGON RIVER NEAR PAULDING /PAUM4/. SNOW
DURATION 24 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KDLH [211237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 211237
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
737 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0633 AM SNOW SEELEY 46.12N 91.36W
10/21/2013 M1.5 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MELDE

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KDLH [211227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 211227
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
727 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 AM SNOW 3 W BUTTERNUT 46.01N 90.56W
10/21/2013 M2.5 INCH ASHLAND WI CO-OP OBSERVER

MOST OF THE SNOW FELL PRIOR TO 10 PM ON 10/20.


&&

$$

MELDE

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KGRB [211142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 211142
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
642 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0641 AM SNOW WINCHESTER 46.21N 89.90W
10/21/2013 M2.0 INCH VILAS WI CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

TH

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KDLH [211037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 211037
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
537 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 AM SNOW 2 E PAYNE 47.10N 92.56W
10/21/2013 M0.2 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FELL SUNDAY...AND MUCH OF THE SNOW
MELTED. SOME OF THE SNOW OVERNIGHT HAS REMAINED ON THE
GROUND. OBSERVER LOCATED ON LAKE NICHOLS.


&&

$$

MELDE

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210853
SWOD48
SPC AC 210852

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NCNTRL U.S. AND MOVE THIS FEATURE SEWD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY/DAY 4. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY/DAY 5. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MID MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY
6. THIS PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ALONG WITH NWLY FLOW IN THE
CNTRL STATES WILL REINFORCE A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MOST OF THE DAY 4 TO
8 PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 10/21/2013

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210726
SWODY3
SPC AC 210724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEYS
EWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL FL.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN CNTRL FL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 10/21/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210556
SWODY2
SPC AC 210555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES AND NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT IN ERN SC...ERN GA AND FL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE TOO MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 10/21/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210542
SWODY1
SPC AC 210540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS WITH
AN EAST-SOUTHEAST PIVOTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND OH VALLEY/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
PREVALENT OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY...LOWER-MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...AND ARKLATEX/PORTIONS OF TX
DURING THE PERIOD...WHERE IT WILL INTERCEPT A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS /LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ ACROSS SOUTH/EAST TX AND
OTHER PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX. IN GENERAL...RELATIVELY LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL HINDER TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CONUS
EXCEPT AS SUBSEQUENTLY DETAILED.

ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH COLD
CORE...LOW-TOPPED UPDRAFTS MAY ATTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION LATER TODAY...WITH A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. OTHER TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FL IN VICINITY OF
THE REMNANT FRONT/AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRAY
LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW/SECONDARY
FRONT...BUT OVERALL TSTM POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS BELOW 10
PERCENT.

...SOUTH TX...
A FEW STRONGER STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW GIVEN FACTORS
SUCH AS MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A TREND TOWARD WEAKENING
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.

..GUYER/COHEN.. 10/21/2013

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