DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211659
SWODY2
SPC AC 211657

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE/MS-OH VLY TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE. THE TROUGH SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN AS JET STREAK NOW OVER
AB/SK CONTINUES SSE INTO NEB/IA TUE MORNING AND THEN TURNS SE INTO
THE TN VLY LATER TUE/EARLY WED...WHILE DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE TRACKS
FROM LK HURON TO SRN QUE. DRY AND/OR MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL PREVAIL
OVER MOST AREAS...LIMITING BUOYANCY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS.

...FL AND NEARBY STATES...
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON TUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW
CROSSING THE LWR MS VLY. THE FRONT...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OCCURRING TO ITS E...MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW TSTMS AS THE FEATURES CONTINUE ESE ACROSS FL...GA...AND CSTL
SC DURING THE PERIOD. COVERAGE MAY BE GREATEST TUE NIGHT AND EARLY
WED AS UPR DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION STRENGTHENS WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE OH-TN VLY TROUGH. HOWEVER...NEITHER
SHEAR NOR INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER.

...GRT LKS...
LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION MAY SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO YIELD A LOCALIZED
RISK FOR ISOLD THUNDER NEAR LK HURON TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A CATEGORICAL AREA ATTM. VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD ISOLD THUNDER ALSO MAY ACCOMPANY EXISTING LAKE SHOWERS E
OF LK ERIE IN UPSTATE NY AS WIND PROFILES AND INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER DEPTH BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEPER/MORE PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS. BUT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 12Z
WED...AND WILL DEFER TO LATER OTLKS RATHER THAN ADD CATEGORICAL
THUNDER ATTM.

..CORFIDI.. 10/21/2013

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