Friday, May 6, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070049
SWODY1
SPC AC 070048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING TSTM UPDRAFTS
OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
ALREADY EVIDENT WITH CONVECTION DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND ACTIVITY WANING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

ONE AREA OF CONCERN HOWEVER IS WITH A STRONG COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER
SWRN TX/NRN MEXICO FROM VAL VERDE COUNTY TO WEST OF DRT ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROPAGATING SEWD INTO AN AXIS OF PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENCOURAGING THIS COMPLEX AS IT SPREADS INTO AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED
BY ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DRT SUPPORTS THIS
TYPE OF AIRMASS WITH SUFFICIENTLY DRY SUB-CLOUD RH VALUES TO WARRANT
AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.


OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY PROMOTE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 05/07/2011

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KLUB [070007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 070007
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
707 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM HAIL ASPERMONT 33.14N 100.22W
05/06/2011 E0.75 INCH STONEWALL TX LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100112

$$

LINDLEY

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KMAF [062314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 062314
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
613 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HAIL COLORADO CITY 32.40N 100.86W
05/06/2011 E0.75 INCH MITCHELL TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZED HAIL IN COLORADO CITY. COVERING THE GROUND IN
SOME PLACES.


&&

$$

CODY.LINDSEY

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KAPX [062252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 062252
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM HAIL EAST TAWAS 44.28N 83.48W
05/06/2011 M0.25 INCH IOSCO MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LAWRENCE

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KMFL [062238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 062238
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
638 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 3 SE CLEWISTON 26.72N 80.90W
05/06/2011 E1.00 INCH HENDRY FL LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

BETTWY

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KAPX [062219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 062219
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
618 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GLADWIN 43.98N 84.49W
05/06/2011 M47 MPH GLADWIN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

RECORDED AS HEAVIER SHOWER MOVED OVER THE LOCATION...WITH
NO THUNDER NOTED.


&&

$$

LAWRENCE

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KDTX [062215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 062215
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
613 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND GST LEXINGTON 43.27N 82.53W
05/06/2011 E40 MPH SANILAC MI CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

ADODSON

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KBMX [062056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 062056
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0929 PM TORNADO 3 SE STROUD 33.02N 85.29W
04/27/2011 F0 CHAMBERS AL NWS STORM SURVEY

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG COUNTY ROAD 267, JUST
NORTH OF THE ENDING PATH OF THE WHITE PLAINS TORNADO. THE
PATHS DID NOT JOIN UP AT ANY POINT AS BOTH DAMAGE WIDTHS
WERE RELATIVELY SMALL. DAMAGE AT COUNTY ROAD 267 INCLUDED
SEVERAL SHEARED SOFTWOOD TREE TOPS ALONG WITH SOME
UPROOTED TREES. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING
COUNTY ROAD 270 WHERE ADDITIONAL TREES WERE SNAPPED AND
AN OUTBUILDING HAD MINOR ROOF DAMAGE. THE TORNADO
TRAVELED NORTHEAST LIFTING ALONG COUNTY ROAD 278.


&&

$$

16

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KBMX [062051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 062051
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
351 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 PM TORNADO 5 NNE LAFAYETTE 32.97N 85.37W
04/27/2011 F1 CHAMBERS AL NWS STORM SURVEY

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG COUNTY ROAD 225, UPROOTING
AND SNAPPING SEVERAL HARD AND SOFTWOOD TREES, AS WELL AS
DOING SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE TO A SINGLE FAMILY
RESIDENCE. THE TORNADO CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEAST CROSSING
COUNTY ROADS 178 AND 176 WHERE NUMEROUS HARD AND SOFTWOOD
TREES WERE UPROOTED AND SNAPPED.THE TORNADO TRACKED
FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST BEFORE LIFTING NEAR COUNTY ROAD
267 WHERE ADDITIONAL TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED.


&&

$$

16

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KBGM [062051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 062051
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
451 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSE MC DONOUGH 42.46N 75.74W
04/28/2011 CHENANGO NY NWS STORM SURVEY

A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON WALDRON
ROAD. THESE TREES WERE ALL POINTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
A SLIGHTLY DIVERGENT PATTERN. THIS DAMAGE OCCURRED
CONCURENTLY WITH A TORNADO TRACK JUST TO THE EAST.


&&

$$

JAB

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KBGM [062041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 062041
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
441 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM TORNADO 5 SSE MC DONOUGH 42.44N 75.73W
04/28/2011 CHENANGO NY NWS STORM SURVEY

A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
APRIL 28 ABOUT 4.5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MCDONOUGH
AND MOVED NORTHEAST CUTTING A PATH THROUGH HEAVY WOODS.
THE TORNADO PASSED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE LUDLOW WHERE A
COUPLE HOMES WHERE DAMAGED BY THE STORM. THE TORNADO
PATH APPEARED TO BE ITS STRONGEST AND WIDEST JUST SOUTH
OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE WOODED AREA. IT CONTINUED TO THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE PATH NARROWED AGAIN AND WEAKENED.
THE TORNADO LIFTED LESS THAN 2 MILES SOUTH OF EAST
MCDONOUGH.


&&

$$

JAB

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KMFL [062040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 062040
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
440 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL CLEWISTON 26.75N 80.94W
05/06/2011 E0.25 INCH HENDRY FL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BETTWY

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KJAX [062006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 062006
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
406 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM WILDFIRE 6 SSW STEVEN FOSTER STA 30.73N 82.37W
05/06/2011 WARE GA PARK/FOREST SRVC

THIS IS A CORRECTION LSR TO ONE THAT WAS ISSUED
PREVISOULY REGARDING THE HONEY PRARIE WILDFIRE IN THE
OKEFENOKEE SWAP. AS OF 10 AM THIS MORNING, THE FIRE WAS
16,200 ACRES IN SIZE.


&&

$$

AENYEDI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061944
SWODY1
SPC AC 061942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED.

...MID ATLANTIC...
MIXING APPEARS TO HAVE LED TO WEAKER THAN FORECAST
INSTABILITY...INHIBITING STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC INTO PA/OH. THE GENERAL APPEARANCE OF CU FIELD ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY REFLECTS A LACK OF MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
HOWEVER...CU FIELD IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR ALONG THE APPALACHIANS IN NC/VA AS A WEAK VORT MAX/IMPLIED
ASCENT NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER WV/WRN VA PROGRESSES EWD. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR FORCING
WEAK ORGANIZATION AND PERHAPS ISOLATED PRODUCTION OF SMALL HAIL
AND/OR DMGG WINDS.

...WEST TX...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK. REF MD 0696 FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

...FLORIDA...
WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A SLOWLY SWD MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL FL...WHILE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA. DESPITE WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRENGTHENED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEF STRONGER UPDRAFTS...WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DMGG
WINDS AS CORES QUICKLY COLLAPSE.

...ERN KS/WRN MO LATE TONIGHT...
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...BUT AT THIS TIME THE THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES.

..HURLBUT/GUYER.. 05/06/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011/

...FL...
WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS SRN HALF OF FL
PENINSULA THROUGH TODAY. WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS BRUSHING THE
REGION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
AND SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL
ZONE TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION. SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED STORM
DOWNDRAFTS WHILE MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
A FEW STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED HAIL
POTENTIAL.

...MID ATL TO PA/OH...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION FROM SC/NC
NWD AND NWWD TO ERN OH AND PARTS OF PA. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY 40SF/...SURFACE HEATING COUPLED
WITH COOLING ALOFT MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF SBCAPE EXCEEDING 500
J/KG. THE ONSET OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH
MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NRN AREAS TO SUPPORT
HAIL AND TSTM WIND POTENTIAL POSSIBLY APPROACHING SVR LEVELS. FROM
SRN VA ACROSS ERN CAROLINAS...STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AOA 60KT WILL
FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE BUT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STILL BE TEMPERED BY LACK OF MORE
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY.

...WEST TX...
AN ARRAY OF STORM SCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
OF PECOS/FORT STOCKTON LATER TODAY. DESPITE ONLY SUBTLE INDICATIONS
OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR TSTM INITIATION IN WEAKLY
CAPPED AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE REGIME. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR
A SVR WIND GUST APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME HOSTILE TO SUSTAINING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.

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KDTX [061928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 061928
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0302 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SSW ANN ARBOR 42.22N 83.75W
05/06/2011 M50 MPH WASHTENAW MI ASOS


&&

$$

ADODSON

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KJAN [061857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 061857
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
157 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0248 PM TORNADO 3 N BELLEFONTAINE 33.69N 89.31W
04/27/2011 WEBSTER MS NWS STORM SURVEY

THE TORNADO SNAPPED A FEW TREES ALONG THE PATH IN WEBSTER
COUNTY BEFORE ENTERING CALHOUN COUNTY. EF1 RATING
PRELIMINARY PENDING COORDINATION WITH WFO MEG. SURVEY
DONE VIA CIVIL AIR PATROL AIRCRAFT.


&&

$$

BK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0696

ACUS11 KWNS 061841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061841
TXZ000-062045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061841Z - 062045Z

WHILE AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN TX...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

THE INFLUX OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SRN TX IS SUPPORTING A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED MOISTURE GRADIENT ARCING
ENE TO WSW ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TOWARD A WEAK MESOLOW 10 W OF
6R6...AND EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE E-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NRN MEXICO MOUNTAINS. THIS AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...CAPPED BY AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER FEATURING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 8.5 TO 9 C/KM PER
12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. THESE FACTORS ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J PER KG/ INVOF THE MOIST
AXIS.

CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THUS FAR WITHIN 60 NM
NE OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...OWING TO
PERSISTENT STRATUS SINCE THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...GREATER
INSOLATION FOUND NEAR A SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING NNW OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MESOLOW IS SUPPORTING LESS CINH OVER THE NWRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MOIST AXIS -- I.E. OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. AS SUCH...RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD AROUND AND
JUST W OF FORT STOCKTON.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO DEEPER CONVECTIVE PLUMES
TO EVOLVE FROM THE CU FIELD BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z...AS AFFIRMED BY
RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. ANY CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHER BASED INITIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...AS THE ACTIVITY IS STEERED EWD OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND INTERACTS WITH THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND GREATER
INSTABILITY...IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN AND POSSIBLY
BECOME SEVERE POSING THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE
THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE SUPPORTED BY NOTABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
0-3-KM-AGL LAYER PER AREA PROFILER DATA...THE RELATIVELY WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
ADDITIONALLY...WITHOUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER FORCING...THE
COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...AT MOST. AS
SUCH...A WW IS UNLIKELY.

..COHEN.. 05/06/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29710172 29770240 30310299 30900330 31630307 32040210
32200079 31690008 30790009 30010025 29540070 29470124
29710172

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KGRR [061808]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 061808
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
208 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HAIL BELLEVUE 42.44N 85.02W
05/06/2011 M0.25 INCH EATON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

NO LIGHTNING OR THUNDER.


&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [061747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 061747
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
147 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM HAIL OLIVET 42.44N 84.92W
05/06/2011 M0.25 INCH EATON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

MELTED AS FELL. NO LIGHTNING OR THUNDER.


&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061712
SWODY2
SPC AC 061711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION/REAMPLIFY OVER THE
CONUS ESPECIALLY THE LAST HALF OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC...A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY. FARTHER WEST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR
OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE ONSET OF UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WEST OF
THE ROCKIES.

...OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
AT THE TERMINUS OF A STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...IT IS
LIKELY THAT ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE OZARKS TO AREAS GENERALLY NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS
RIVERS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL...BUT AN APPRECIABLE
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET/ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED GENERALLY PERSISTS DURING THE DAY...THIS
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT. FARTHER WEST...THE INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM
SECTOR NEAR/SOUTH OF A STALLING FRONT SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
CAPPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/GRADUAL
SHORTWAVE RIDGING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER.

OVERALL...THE LIMITED PHASING OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
/PRIMARILY LOWER OH RIVER VICINITY/ COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATER
LAPSE RATE AND MOISTURE RESERVOIR /PRIMARILY WEST OF THE MS RIVER/
IMPLIES THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED ON SATURDAY. THIS
REGION WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT DAY 1
OUTLOOKS...BUT SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS
JUNCTURE.

...NEW ENGLAND...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NEAR/EAST OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
COINCIDENT WITH A -20 TO -25C /500 MB/ COLD POOL ALOFT...SOME OF
THESE LOW-TOPPED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SEVERE HAIL
/1 INCH IN DIAMETER/ IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK OVERALL
BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

..GUYER.. 05/06/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061603
SWODY1
SPC AC 061601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...
WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS SRN HALF OF FL
PENINSULA THROUGH TODAY. WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS BRUSHING THE
REGION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
AND SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL
ZONE TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION. SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED STORM
DOWNDRAFTS WHILE MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
A FEW STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED HAIL
POTENTIAL.

...MID ATL TO PA/OH...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION FROM SC/NC
NWD AND NWWD TO ERN OH AND PARTS OF PA. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY 40SF/...SURFACE HEATING COUPLED
WITH COOLING ALOFT MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF SBCAPE EXCEEDING 500
J/KG. THE ONSET OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH
MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NRN AREAS TO SUPPORT
HAIL AND TSTM WIND POTENTIAL POSSIBLY APPROACHING SVR LEVELS. FROM
SRN VA ACROSS ERN CAROLINAS...STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AOA 60KT WILL
FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE BUT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STILL BE TEMPERED BY LACK OF MORE
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY.

...WEST TX...
AN ARRAY OF STORM SCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
OF PECOS/FORT STOCKTON LATER TODAY. DESPITE ONLY SUBTLE INDICATIONS
OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR TSTM INITIATION IN WEAKLY
CAPPED AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE REGIME. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR
A SVR WIND GUST APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME HOSTILE TO SUSTAINING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.

..CARBIN/COHEN.. 05/06/2011

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KJAX [061502]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 061502
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1100 AM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM WILDFIRE 6 SSW STEVEN FOSTER STA 30.73N 82.37W
05/06/2011 WARE GA PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE OKEFENOKEE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED IN SIZE OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE SIZE OF THE
FIRE WAS MEASURED AT 21,645 ACRES THIS MORNING.


&&

$$

JHESS

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KSJT [061444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 061444
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
944 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM WILDFIRE 15 NW OZONA 30.86N 101.38W
04/30/2011 E435 ACRE CROCKETT TX FOREST SERVICE

THE WORTHINGTON FIRE BURNED AN ESTIMATED 435 ACRES OF
PASTURELAND 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF OZONA. NO STRUCTURES
WERE LOST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1100169

$$

SN

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KSJT [061431]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 061431
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
931 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM WILDFIRE 10 E WEINERT 33.32N 99.50W
04/30/2011 E7000 ACRE HASKELL TX FOREST SERVICE

THE CLARK RANCH FIRE BURNED APPROXIMATELY 7000 ACRES IN
THROCKMORTON COUNTY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1100168

$$

SN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061238
SWODY1
SPC AC 061237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...VA/CAROLINAS...

STRONG MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS
WILL CONTINUE EWD WITH A CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION TODAY. THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS
MIDLEVEL SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH/WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER THE PIEDMONT WHICH WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE 50S COUPLED WITH STEADILY COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION
WITH SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON.

TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE DEEPER
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE.
HOWEVER... ARRIVAL OF 50-60+ KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND RESULTANT
STRENGTHENING OF VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...SWRN TX...

STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS RETURNING THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT LATER
TODAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE
RATE...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING /WITH ATTENDANT RISKS FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS/ PRIOR TO DISSIPATING WITH THE COOLING/STABILIZATION OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 05/06/2011

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KJAX [061148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 061148
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
748 AM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0746 AM WILDFIRE 6 SSW STEVEN FOSTER STA 30.73N 82.37W
05/06/2011 WARE GA PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE OKEFENOKEE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED IN SIZE OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE SIZE OF THE
FIRE WAS MEASURED AT 15400 ACRES AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING.


&&

$$

JHESS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060854
SWOD48
SPC AC 060853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS AND THEN BEGINS TO
EJECT ENE INTO THE PLAINS BY TUE AND WED. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN...SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A VERY
STRONG EML ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. AT THE SAME
TIME...THERE WILL BE IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DRYLINE TSTM INITIATION IS COMPARATIVELY MORE UNCERTAIN ON MONDAY
AFTN THAN ON SUNDAY AS MID-LEVELS FURTHER WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE
DIGGING IMPULSE INTO THE DESERT SW. MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENTS
APPEAR LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND...PARTICULARILY...ON WEDNESDAY /DAY 5
AND 6/ AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM BODILY MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.
THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN INCREASINGLY LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND
BUOYANCY...YIELDING THREATS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

BEYOND DAY 6...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A INCREASING SPREAD
ON THE HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AS IT TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND NERN STATES. THIS RENDERS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE SVR WEATHER AREAS.

..RACY.. 05/06/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060729
SWODY3
SPC AC 060728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY ATTENTION WILL REVOLVE AROUND A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE WRN STATES WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DEEPER AND SLOWER.
SPLINTERING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX EWD INTO SCNTRL KS...WRN OK AND CENTRAL
EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION BY 21Z SUNDAY. STRONG EML WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC AS CAPPING CONCERNS PREVAIL. HOWEVER...WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING IMPULSE IN COMBINATION WITH VERY
HOT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPETUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS FROM SCNTRL KS SWD INTO WRN N TX LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BUOYANCY WILL BE ROBUST OWING TO AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
8.5 DEG C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY
SHOULD STORMS FORM WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING AS STORMS MOVE INTO
INCREASINGLY CAPPED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALONG ERN FRINGES OF THE DIGGING UPPER LOW WILL
SPREAD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/WRN NEB
BY MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY. LLVL MOISTURE CIRCULATING NWWD ALONG NRN
EDGE OF A SFC LOW WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP MID-TROP LAPSE RATES FOR
MODEST INSTABILITY AMIDST 45-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECT
HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY...THEN
ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/NE OF THE SFC LOW
BY LATE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE
ELEVATED DURING THE EVENING AND SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL/ERN
NEB AND POSSIBLY IA/NRN MO OVERNIGHT. A CONTINUED ISOLD LARGE HAIL
THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT SLY LLJ.

..RACY.. 05/06/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060521
SWODY2
SPC AC 060519

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
OVER THE NERN STATES BEGINS TO RELAX AS A NEW UPPER SYSTEM AMPLIFIES
OVER THE WRN STATES. AT THE SFC...WHILE PRIMARY COLD FRONT REMAINS
SITUATED FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE ERN GULF BASIN...A
NEW FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDWEST. A
WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MIDWEST FRONT AND MIGRATE EWD DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

...OH VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY...SOME WITH SMALL HAIL. WSWLY LLJ FEEDING
THE STORMS WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD
THROUGH THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT THE EWD DEVELOPMENT OF SPORADIC TSTMS TOWARD THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGER STORMS /ISOLD HAIL/ WILL
FAVOR WRN/SRN FRINGES OF ACTIVITY CLOSER TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

...NEW ENGLAND...
BEFORE THE NERN TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES LATE ON SATURDAY...A SECONDARY
IMPULSE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY H5
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-MINUS 20 DEG C DURING PEAK HEATING. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL GIVE RISE
TO CONVECTION/TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A COUPLE
STORMS MAY GIVE SMALL HAIL...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

...NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY...
SPORADIC TSTMS WILL OCCUR ALONG NWWD EXTENSION OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VLY. HERE...RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL COLD TEMPERATURES ON WRN FRINGE OF
THE NERN TROUGH COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE APT TO FORM SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NRN NEB
WITHIN CORE OF A DEVELOPING SLY LLJ IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING WRN
STATES TROUGH. NO SVR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

..RACY.. 05/06/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060430
SWODY1
SPC AC 060428

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2011

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAY1 PERIOD...EFFECTIVELY PREVENTING ANY MEANINGFUL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RETURNING TO THE REGION DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES. NET RESULT WILL BE FOR
TRANSITORY POCKETS OF ASCENT TO ENHANCE CONVECTION/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS AND ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER REGION INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY. ANOTHER REGION WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE DRY LINE IN WEST TX. WHILE COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WOULD OTHERWISE ENCOURAGE HAIL GROWTH ACROSS THE NRN
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S...MEAGER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
INTENSITY IN BOTH REGIONS AND CURRENT THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT
FORM OVER THESE REGIONS WILL DO SO WITH LIMITED ABILITY TO GENERATE
HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS.

THE ONLY AREA WHERE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
WILL BE ALONG THE DRY LINE IN WEST TX. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN NM/WEST TX
PUSHING SFC TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM...ESSENTIALLY REMOVING ANY
INHIBITION THAT WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPRESS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN TO THIS REGION
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN A BIT MARGINAL TO WARRANT ANY REAL
SEVERE THREAT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE LACKING WHICH COULD
OTHERWISE COMPENSATE FOR REDUCED INSTABILITY. EVEN SO GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HIGH BASED STORMS THAT MANAGE TO EVOLVE ACROSS
THIS REGION.

..DARROW/STOPPKOTTE.. 05/06/2011

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