Friday, May 6, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070049
SWODY1
SPC AC 070048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING TSTM UPDRAFTS
OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
ALREADY EVIDENT WITH CONVECTION DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND ACTIVITY WANING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

ONE AREA OF CONCERN HOWEVER IS WITH A STRONG COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER
SWRN TX/NRN MEXICO FROM VAL VERDE COUNTY TO WEST OF DRT ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROPAGATING SEWD INTO AN AXIS OF PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENCOURAGING THIS COMPLEX AS IT SPREADS INTO AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED
BY ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DRT SUPPORTS THIS
TYPE OF AIRMASS WITH SUFFICIENTLY DRY SUB-CLOUD RH VALUES TO WARRANT
AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.


OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY PROMOTE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 05/07/2011

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