SWODY1
SPC AC 070451
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 PM CST TUE DEC 06 2011
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT AND INTENSE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY 00Z...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
OVER VA AND NC. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A STRONG COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL EXTEND SWD OVER ERN NC AND VA AT 00Z. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...VERY COOL AND DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
WWD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS.
...NC...VA...DELMARVA...
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM WRN NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE
DELMARVA BY EVENING. INTENSE WIND FIELDS WILL EXIST WITH THE TROUGH
WITH A 110+ KT MID LEVEL JET MAX. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTOR LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT S OF THE JET AXIS. HOWEVER...A SMALL AREA FROM
NRN NC INTO SRN AND ERN VA/DELMARVA WILL BE BENEATH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 60 F. WITH
SUFFICIENT CAPE AND VERY STRONG FORCING...DEEP CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR
SOME STORM LONGEVITY WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. A QLCS TORNADO
COULD ALSO OCCUR IF STORMS BECOME INTENSE ENOUGH.
FURTHER ENHANCING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONG PRESSURE RISES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE WITH
STORMS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OR MESOLOW.
..JEWELL/GARNER.. 12/07/2011
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