SWODY2
SPC AC 060533
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST MON DEC 05 2011
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE
SRN APPALACHIANS INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN THE LEE
OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS...WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
EXPECTED SE OF NANTUCKET ISLAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE
VERTICAL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...PARTLY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ATOP
FRONTAL ZONE...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE TOO SHALLOW TO
WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
STRIKE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
..DARROW.. 12/06/2011
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