Saturday, September 24, 2011

KPSR [250355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 250355
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
854 PM MST SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE LAVEEN 33.44N 112.10W
09/24/2011 MARICOPA AZ UTILITY COMPANY

REPORTS OF DOWNED POWER LINES ON SHERMAN ST BETWEEN 19TH
AND 23RD AVENUES. 1100 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER. RADAR
ESTIMATE AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST 40MPH
WINDS.


&&

$$

LEINS

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KREV [250258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KREV 250258
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
758 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW GARDNERVILLE 38.91N 119.83W
09/24/2011 M0.31 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

0.31 INCHES RAIN FROM 115PM TO 245PM FROM THUNDERSTORM.

0259 PM LIGHTNING 4 W RENO 39.54N 119.89W
09/24/2011 WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

*** 4 INJ *** FIREMAN REPORTED FROM LOCAL POLICE SCANNER
OF LIGHTNING STRIKE AT MCQUEEN HIGH SCHOOL SOCCER FIELD.
ONE CHILD UNCONSCIOUS AND ONE ADULT WITH SHIRT ON FIRE
FROM STRIKE. UPDATE FROM LOCAL MEDIA REPORTS TWO IN
HOSPITAL IN STABLE CONDITION. TWO OTHERS REFUSED
TREATMENT AT SCENE.

0318 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 W RENO 39.54N 119.86W
09/24/2011 M0.35 INCH WASHOE NV MESONET

FELL IN 30 MINUTES.


&&

$$

JWALLMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250043
SWODY1
SPC AC 250042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WESTERN STATES...
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN
PLATEAU HAVE BEEN AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN INLAND
PROGRESSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH BY 03-04Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIMILAR
TRENDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS WHICH HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES.

...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
GENERALLY BE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHEST
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT MAY EXIST WITHIN THE BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN
MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

...CENTRAL U.S...
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES PIVOTING AROUND A RETROGRADING
UPPER CLOSED LOW MAY CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION
AND AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU.

..KERR.. 09/25/2011

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KMLB [242312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 242312
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
711 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 SE LADY LAKE 28.92N 81.92W
09/24/2011 LAKE FL PUBLIC

THE PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR LADY LAKE.
REPORTS RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LOCAL MEDIA.


&&

$$

JCG

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KVEF [242246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 242246
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
346 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM TSTM WND GST STATION 28 (NTS A28) 36.90N 116.04W
09/24/2011 M58 MPH NYE NV MESONET

THIS GUST WAS PRODUCED BY THE SAME DISSIPATING
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PRODUCED THE OTHER TWO HIGH WIND GUSTS
ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NEVADA NATIONAL SECURITY
SITE.


&&

$$

MORGAN

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KREV [242234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 242234
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
334 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW GARDNERVILLE 38.91N 119.83W
09/24/2011 M0.31 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

0.31 INCHES RAIN FROM 115PM TO 245PM FROM THUNDERSTORM.

0255 PM LIGHTNING 4 E VERDI 39.52N 119.93W
09/24/2011 WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

*** 2 INJ *** FIREMAN REPORTED FROM LOCAL POLICE SCANNER
OF LIGHTNING STRIKE AT MCQUEEN HIGH SCHOOL SOCCER FIELD.
ONE CHILD UNCONSCION AND ONE ADULT WITH SHIRT ON FIRE
FROM STRIKE. NO OTHER INFORMATION.


&&

$$

JWALLMAN

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KOKX [242234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 242234
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
634 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD RYE 40.95N 73.68W
09/23/2011 WESTCHESTER NY BROADCAST MEDIA

STRANDED VEHICLE AT PECK AVENUE AND MIDLAND AVENUE


&&

$$

JM

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KCHS [242231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 242231
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
630 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0629 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE I-26/I-526 INTERC 32.85N 80.01W
09/24/2011 U0.00 INCH CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS STANDING WATER ON LEEDS AVENUE
AND DORCHESTER ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100946

$$

04

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KVEF [242212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 242212
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
312 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 PM TSTM WND GST 4 NW SILVERADO RANCH 36.05N 115.18W
09/24/2011 M47.00 MPH CLARK NV NWS EMPLOYEE

THIS GUST WAS MEASURED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. BLOWING DUST WAS ALSO OBSERVED.

0215 PM TSTM WND GST AREA 27 (NTS A27) 36.77N 116.11W
09/24/2011 M61.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET

THIS GUST CAME FROM A DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORM.

0230 PM TSTM WND GST WELL 5B (NTS A05) 36.80N 115.98W
09/24/2011 M58.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET

THIS GUST CAME FROM A DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORM.


&&

$$

MORGAN

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KMKX [242131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 242131
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
431 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM WATER SPOUT 1 SE KENOSHA 42.57N 87.80W
09/24/2011 LMZ646 WI TRAINED SPOTTER

WATERSPOUT LOOKING SOUTHEAST FROM KENOSHA HARBOR. SHORTLY
AFTER WATERSPOUT DISSIPATED IT STARTED HAILING. HAIL WAS
PEA SIZE.


&&

$$

MEB

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KGRR [242130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 242130
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL 4 NNE HOLLAND 42.83N 86.06W
09/24/2011 E0.25 INCH OTTAWA MI PUBLIC

ALSO REPORTS 0.25 INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOUR


&&

$$

JK

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KMFL [242109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 242109
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
509 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
09/24/2011 PALM BEACH FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWNED IN THE
AREA ALONG MILITARY TRAIL. WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WERE
REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

$$

GREGORIA

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KMFL [242049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 242049
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
449 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM FLOOD DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
09/24/2011 PALM BEACH FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED FLOODING ALONG MILITARY TRAIL
BETWEEN ATLANTIC AVE AND LINTON BLVD WITH THE ROAD BARELY
PASSABLE. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES AROUND 3 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN OVER THIS AREA IN THE PAST 45 MINUTES.


&&

$$

GREGORIA

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KGRR [242023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 242023
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
423 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM HAIL ALASKA 42.84N 85.48W
09/24/2011 E0.25 INCH KENT MI COUNTY OFFICIAL


&&

$$

JK

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KMFL [242022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 242022
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
422 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0402 PM TSTM WND GST BOCA RATON 26.36N 80.10W
09/24/2011 M55 MPH PALM BEACH FL ASOS


&&

$$

GREGORIA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241943
SWODY1
SPC AC 241942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z. THE CURRENT
FORECAST SCENARIO ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

..BROYLES.. 09/24/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOSED LOW OVER NRN IL WILL DRIFT WWD TO ABOUT THE IA BORDER BY
EARLY SUNDAY...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 42 N AND 136 W
WILL APPROACH THE ORE/WA COASTS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL SEGMENT ACROSS ERN IL/INDIANA WILL
MAINTAIN A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SRN MO/NRN AR
WHERE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/WAA WILL BE FOCUSED. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS S THRU E OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT EXPECT ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND NO
APPRECIABLE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS A RESULT OF COOL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

A SEPARATE FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM N FL TO
ERN NC. CLOUDS/RAIN WITHIN THE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE BAHAMAS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION INLAND THIS AFTERNOON /ESPECIALLY NC/...AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK INLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THUS...WHILE AN ISOLATED ROTATING STORM OR BOWING SEGMENT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS AS A RESULT OF THE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS...THE
OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST.

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KMFL [241940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 241940
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 PM TSTM WND GST WEST PALM BEACH 26.71N 80.06W
09/24/2011 M45 MPH PALM BEACH FL ASOS

PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECORDED A WIND GUST OF
45 MPH.


&&

$$

GREGORIA

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KIWX [241835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 241835
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
235 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0222 PM HAIL ROANOKE 40.96N 85.37W
09/24/2011 M0.75 INCH HUNTINGTON IN AMATEUR RADIO

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES FELL FOR APPROX. 4 MINUTES


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101400

$$

NG

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241729
SWODY2
SPC AC 241727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN AR...SE MO...WRN TN
AND FAR WRN KY...

...MID-MS VALLEY/OZARKS...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER
MS-VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD
ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY...OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION APPEARS PROBABLE AS SFC TEMPS WARM
SUNDAY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS NWD INTO THE OZARKS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING ACROSS SE MO/SRN
IL...WHILE CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE DELAYED IN MUCH OF AR BY
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE FIRST
STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE ACROSS SE IL AND SE MO WHERE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH STORM COVERAGE
INCREASING SWWD WITH TIME ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z MON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
MID-MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE ARKLATEX SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000
TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 45 TO 55 KT. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY
SUPERCELLS IF THE DOMINANT MODE REMAINS DISCRETE. IF SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...A LARGE
HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS CONGEAL ALONG THE FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN WIND DAMAGE
COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT...HAVE ADDED A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA IN ERN AR...WRN
TN...SE MO AND FAR WRN KY WHERE THE RISK APPEARS THE LEAST
CONDITIONAL. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION.

..BROYLES.. 09/24/2011

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KLOT [241710]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 241710
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1209 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 AM WATER SPOUT 2 NE CHICAGO 41.90N 87.60W
09/24/2011 LMZ741 IL PUBLIC

CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT REPORT/IMAGERY FROM THE PUBLIC JUST
TO THE NORTH OF NAVY PIER.


&&

$$

SSHEA

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KLOT [241623]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 241623
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1123 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1052 AM HAIL NORTHBROOK 42.13N 87.83W
09/24/2011 E0.25 INCH COOK IL AMATEUR RADIO

IN NORTHBROOK AT I-94/TOWER ROAD.


&&

$$

CM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241619
SWODY1
SPC AC 241617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOSED LOW OVER NRN IL WILL DRIFT WWD TO ABOUT THE IA BORDER BY
EARLY SUNDAY...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 42 N AND 136 W
WILL APPROACH THE ORE/WA COASTS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL SEGMENT ACROSS ERN IL/INDIANA WILL
MAINTAIN A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SRN MO/NRN AR
WHERE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/WAA WILL BE FOCUSED. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS S THRU E OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT EXPECT ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND NO
APPRECIABLE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS A RESULT OF COOL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

A SEPARATE FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM N FL TO
ERN NC. CLOUDS/RAIN WITHIN THE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE BAHAMAS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION INLAND THIS AFTERNOON /ESPECIALLY NC/...AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK INLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THUS...WHILE AN ISOLATED ROTATING STORM OR BOWING SEGMENT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS AS A RESULT OF THE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS...THE
OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/24/2011

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KLOT [241611]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 241611
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1111 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 AM WATER SPOUT CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
09/24/2011 COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER SPOUT ESTIMATED 3 TO 4 MILES OFF SHORE IN LAKE
MICHIGAN AT APPROXIMATELY 47TH STREET. WATER SPOUT WAS
FROM CLOUD BASE TO WATER.


&&

$$

CM

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KMKX [241604]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 241604
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1104 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 AM FUNNEL CLOUD MILWAUKEE 43.03N 87.92W
09/24/2011 MILWAUKEE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTED LOOKING EAST FROM INTERSECTION OF LINCOLN AVE AND
I-794.


&&

$$

WIMBERLEY

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KMKX [241544]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 241544
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1044 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1014 AM WATER SPOUT E MILWAUKEE LAKESHORE 43.05N 87.88W
09/24/2011 LMZ645 WI 911 CALL CENTER

INDIVIDUAL WAS WEST OF MCKINLEY MARINA LOOKING EAST PAST
THE MARINA...AND SAW TWO WATERSPOUTS. PUBLIC REPORT
RELAYED BY MILWAUKEE COUNTY SHERIFF DISPATCHER.

1028 AM WATER SPOUT E MILWAUKEE HOAN BRIDGE 43.03N 87.90W
09/24/2011 MILWAUKEE WI AMATEUR RADIO

PERIODIC WATERSPOUTS REPORTED OFF THE MILWAUKEE
LAKESHORE...DUE EAST OF THE HOAN BRIDGE. TWO SEPARATE
REPORTS AT 1024 AM AND 1028 AM CDT.


&&

$$

WIMBERLEY

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KLOT [241532]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 241532
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1032 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 AM WATER SPOUT 3 E CHICAGO 41.88N 87.57W
09/24/2011 LMZ741 IL BROADCAST MEDIA

MULTIPLE REPORTS OF A CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT REACHING THE
WATER FROM LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA AS WELL AS RELAYED
REPORTS FROM WFO MFL FROM A VISITING SPOTTER. THIN -
ROPE-LIKE WATERSPOUT LASTED FOR ROUGHLY 5 MINUTES BEFORE
DISSIPATING.


&&

$$

SSHEA

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KLOT [241516]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 241516
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1015 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 AM WATER SPOUT 10 SE NORTH CHICAGO 42.22N 87.72W
09/24/2011 LMZ740 IL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF A WATERSPOUT 10 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES NAVAL STATION.


&&

$$

SSHEA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241241
SWODY1
SPC AC 241240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CAROLINAS...

CURRENT VAD DATA AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE THAT A BELT OF 45-55 KT
SSWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
SIGNIFYING ERN ENVELOPE OF STRONGER WIND FIELD ATTENDANT TO
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW REGIME...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
CONTINUE NNEWD TODAY WITH WEAKENING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MIDLEVEL
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. IN THE LOW LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE ANALYZED
ALONG THE PIEDMONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE D1
PERIOD.

TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN
SC AND CNTRL NC WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS AND FORCED BY DCVA IN
ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSE. 12Z GSO/CHS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHAT EFFECT THE EARLY PASSAGE
OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE ON TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN AIR MASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. IN ANY EVENT...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW THAT SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ALREADY EXISTS FOR PERSISTENT STORM STRUCTURES /MARGINAL
SUPERCELLS/ WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

...OH VALLEY...

WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR THE IL/IND BORDER WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
WWD TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEP-LAYER CIRCULATION. DESPITE
THE EQUIVALENT-BAROTROPIC NATURE OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...A BELT OF
40-60 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AROUND PERIPHERY OF
CIRCULATION ALONG WITH 500-MB TEMPERATURES AOB -20 C. GIVEN THE
CO-LOCATION OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM AND VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM FORMATION WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN TOO COOL AND DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY.
AS SUCH...NO SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS
FORECAST.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 09/24/2011

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KCHS [241017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 241017
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
617 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0551 AM TSTM WND GST 14 WNW SAINT STEPHEN 33.48N 80.15W
09/24/2011 M47 MPH BERKELEY SC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

A 47 MPH WIND GUST WAS RECORDED BY NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WIND EQUIPMENT ON THE SANTEE DAM.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100945

$$

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KCHS [240940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 240940
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
540 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 AM TSTM WND GST 14 WNW SAINT STEPHEN 33.48N 80.15W
09/24/2011 M41 MPH BERKELEY SC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

A 41 MPH WIND GUST WAS RECORDED BY NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WIND EQUIPMENT ON THE SANTEE DAM.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100944

$$

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 240827
SWOD48
SPC AC 240826

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...

PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WILL LARGELY
DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG
ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE EJECTING UPPER LOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY IS A BIT TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WITHIN MOIST...AND AT TIMES
BUOYANT AIR MASS. LOCAL POCKETS OF INSTABILITY MAY ULTIMATELY
REQUIRE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN LATER OUTLOOKS WHEN ATMOSPHERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE
HANDLED BETTER BY SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.

..DARROW.. 09/24/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 240701
SWODY3
SPC AC 240700

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...OH VALLEY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIFFER REGARDING THE TIMING/SPEED OF
EJECTING UPPER LOW FROM IA/MO/IL. GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN
THE NAM WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW FORECAST INTO EXTREME SWRN
LOWER MI WHILE THE LATTER HOLDS THE CYCLONE OVER SERN IA. THE
LATEST ECMWF WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A COMPROMISE OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS WITH A POSITION OVER NERN IL AT 27/00Z. GIVEN THAT
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBS TO THE DAY3 PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ADVANCING
SFC FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION. AS
DIFFERENCES IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ARE RESOLVED IT MAY BE
NECESSARY TO ADD A LOW RISK OF SEVERE TO PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY.

..DARROW.. 09/24/2011

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KHNX [240641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 240641
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1141 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE BAKERSFIELD 35.37N 118.99W
09/23/2011 KERN CA BROADCAST MEDIA

TREE TOPPLED INTO A POWER POLE. 3723 PEOPLE LOST POWER.

0734 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE MOJAVE 35.08N 118.14W
09/23/2011 KERN CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

BIG RIG BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 58 NEAR MILE MARKER 170.
BOTH THE MOJAVE AIR AND SPACE PORT AND THE NATIONAL TEST
PILOT SCHOOL REPORTED GUSTS TO 56 MPH AT 1915 PDT.


&&

$$

SANGER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240539
SWODY2
SPC AC 240538

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...

CENTER OF PSEUDO STATIONARY UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE ABOUT THE IA/MO/IL
BORDER REGION AND THIS IS SUPPORTED IN BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND NAM
MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THE SFC...IT APPEARS A REINFORCED BOUNDARY WILL
SHARPEN ACROSS SERN MO/AR INTO NERN TX DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
STRONG HEATING DEVELOPS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE.
AS A RESULT A NARROW ZONE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ENHANCE AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR FRONTAL
CONVECTION FAIRLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 19-20Z
ACROSS IL/MO/KY...WITH SUBSEQUENT SWWD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AR INTO
NRN LA BY 22-00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
1500 J/KG. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A 5% PROBABILITY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DUE PRIMARILY TO THE EXPECTED NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FRONTAL SQUALL LINE COULD
EMERGE SUCH THAT A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST FOR A
GREATER RISK OF SEVERE. AN UPGRADE MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE.

...ELSEWHERE...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BENEATH THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS IA/IL...EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO THE SERN U.S. WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN DESTABILIZATION. OTHERWISE...A FEW HIGH BASED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM DUE TO STRONG HEATING
WITHIN A WEAK MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH.

..DARROW.. 09/24/2011

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