Saturday, September 24, 2011

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 240827
SWOD48
SPC AC 240826

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...

PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WILL LARGELY
DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG
ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE EJECTING UPPER LOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY IS A BIT TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WITHIN MOIST...AND AT TIMES
BUOYANT AIR MASS. LOCAL POCKETS OF INSTABILITY MAY ULTIMATELY
REQUIRE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN LATER OUTLOOKS WHEN ATMOSPHERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE
HANDLED BETTER BY SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.

..DARROW.. 09/24/2011

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