Tuesday, May 19, 2009

KGGW [200331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 200331
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
931 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0909 PM HAIL FRAZER 48.06N 106.04W
05/19/2009 E1.75 INCH VALLEY MT PUBLIC


&&

$$

VALONE

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KGGW [200325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 200325
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
925 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0903 PM HAIL 1 W FRAZER 48.06N 106.06W
05/19/2009 E1.00 INCH VALLEY MT PUBLIC

TRAVELER REPORTED QUARTER-SIZE HAIL ON HIGHWAY 2 FROM 1
MILE WEST TO 4 MILES WEST OF FRAZER.


&&

$$

VALONE

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KCYS [200319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 200319
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
919 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0904 PM TSTM WND GST 1 S DALTON 41.39N 102.97W
05/19/2009 E60 MPH CHEYENNE NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

SJC

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KCYS [200315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 200315
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
914 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM TSTM WND GST 7 WSW SIDNEY 41.09N 103.09W
05/19/2009 M58.00 MPH CHEYENNE NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NEBRASKA DEPT OF ROADS MESONET SITE AT MILEPOST 50.3.

0853 PM TSTM WND GST SIDNEY 41.13N 102.97W
05/19/2009 M58.00 MPH CHEYENNE NE ASOS


&&

$$

SJC

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KGGW [200309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 200309
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
909 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0906 PM HAIL 1 N FRAZER 48.07N 106.04W
05/19/2009 E1.25 INCH VALLEY MT PUBLIC


&&

$$

VALONE

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KCYS [200218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 200218
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
818 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM TSTM WND GST 7 ESE BRIDGEPORT 41.63N 102.97W
05/19/2009 M52.00 MPH MORRILL NE MESONET

0620 PM TSTM WND GST BRIDGEPORT 41.67N 103.10W
05/19/2009 E50.00 MPH MORRILL NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT IN BRIDGEPORT ESTIMATED 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS.

0630 PM TSTM WND GST 6 S BRIDGEPORT 41.58N 103.10W
05/19/2009 E60.00 MPH MORRILL NE PUBLIC

ESTIMATED MICROBURST FROM HANDHELD ANEMOMETER. MULTIPLE
ESTIMATED REPORTS OF 60 MPH AND ESTIMATED INSTANTANEOUS
PEAK IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.


&&

$$

SCARPENT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191623
SWODY1
SPC AC 191620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CONTINUE TO
BE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW...AND SMALLER
SYSTEM NOW OVER CENTRAL NV ROTATING AROUND LARGE UPPER HIGH. PW/S
ACROSS THE REGION ARE SEASONABLY MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT.

STRONG SURFACE-H7 COLD FRONT SHOULD BE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES OF ID/WRN MT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS
SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EVENING. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP
AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH.

ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED AHEAD OF
SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. HERE A FEW
GUSTS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE
VERY WARM SURFACE CONDITIONS/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 05/19/2009

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KJKL [191542]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...correction

NWUS53 KJKL 191542 CCA
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1139 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0646 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE LIGON 37.35N 82.66W
05/15/2009 FLOYD KY TRAINED SPOTTER

5 OR 6 SMALL TREES BLOWN OVER ALONG ROUTE 122 NEAR
FLOYD/PIKE COUNTY LINE. TIME ESTIMATED OFF OF RADAR.


&&

$$

JCARICO

...CORRECTED FOR TIME AND TYPO...

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KJKL [191540]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 191540
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1139 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0646 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE LIGON 37.35N 82.66W
05/15/2009 FLOYD KY TRAINED SPOTTER

5 OR 6 SMALLS TREES BLOWN OVER ALONG ROUTE 122 NEAR
FLOYD/PIKE COUNTY LINE. TIME ESTIMATED OFF OF RADAR.


&&

$$

JCARICO

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KJAX [191539]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 191539
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1139 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1121 AM NON-TSTM WND GST FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
05/19/2009 M50 MPH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

FLAGLER BEACH FIRE DEPARTMENT MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 50
MPH.

1120 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
05/19/2009 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER LINES ARE DOWN AT 1775 NORTH CENTRAL AVENUE. MINOR
ROOF AND SHINGLE DAMAGE AT 805 NORTH A1A. FISHERMANS NET
RESTAURANT LOST SIDING ON THEIR BUILDING.


&&

$$

MTRABERT

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KTSA [191539]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 191539
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0944 PM TSTM WND DMG TULSA 36.13N 95.92W
05/15/2009 TULSA OK NEWSPAPER

NUMEROUS TENTS DESTROYED AT THE BLUE DOME ARTS FESTIVAL

WITH DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. 7 TENTS ALSO DAMAGED AT MAYFEST.

1001 PM TSTM WND DMG TULSA 36.13N 95.92W
05/15/2009 TULSA OK NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE LIMBS DOWN NEAR 91ST AND MINGO AND AT 91ST AND
SHERIDAN

1005 PM TSTM WND DMG BROKEN ARROW 36.05N 95.79W
05/15/2009 TULSA OK NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE TREE DOWN AND PRIVACY FENCE BLOWN DOWN AT 81ST
STREET AND 145 EAST AVE


&&

$$

RBD

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KPSR [191515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 191515
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
815 AM MST TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 AM DOWNBURST 3 S GUADALUPE 33.32N 111.97W
05/19/2009 MARICOPA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

DAMAGE REPORTED TO CAR DEALERSHIP FROM A DRY MICROBURST.


&&

$$

WATERS

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KCHS [191506]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 191506
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1106 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM HIGH SURF TYBEE ISLAND 32.02N 80.86W
05/19/2009 CHATHAM GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TYBEE ISLAND LIFEGUARDS REPORT BREAKERS OF 4-6 FT IN THE
SURF ZONE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS.


&&

$$

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KPSR [191501]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 191501
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
801 AM MST TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 PM DOWNBURST 3 WNW MESA 33.43N 111.79W
05/18/2009 MARICOPA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

NUMEROUS POWER LINES DOWN.


&&

$$

WATERS

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KPSR [191443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 191443
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
743 AM MST TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0922 PM DOWNBURST PHOENIX 33.54N 112.07W
05/18/2009 MARICOPA AZ ASOS

PEAK WIND GUST 52 MPH AT SKY HARBOR AIRPORT...KPHX.


&&

$$

SSIPPLE

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KLWX [191356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 191356
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
956 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 W ELKTON 38.41N 78.67W
05/16/2009 ROCKINGHAM VA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ALONG EAST POINT ROAD CORRIDOR AT
RIVER RD...BETHEL CHURCH RD...FLORIST RD...AND STEPHEN
CONRAD DR.

0353 PM HAIL 2 NW ELKTON 38.43N 78.64W
05/16/2009 E1.00 INCH ROCKINGHAM VA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

ESTIMATED QUARTER SIZE HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.


&&

$$

KLEIN

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KJAX [191351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 191351
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
951 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HIGH SURF 1 N FERNANDINA BEACH 30.67N 81.45W
05/19/2009 NASSAU FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION REPORTED AT FORT CLINCH. THERE
IS BARELY SPACE FOR A VEHICLE ON A NORMALLY WIDE BEACH.
BREAKERS ARE 6 TO 7 FEET.

0900 AM HIGH SURF SAINT AUGUSTINE 29.89N 81.31W
05/19/2009 ST. JOHNS FL PUBLIC

NO BEACH IS VISIBLE. HIGH SURF HAS COMPLETELY COVERED THE
BEACH.

0855 AM HIGH SURF FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
05/19/2009 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

MINOR BEACH EROSION IS REPORTED WITH BREAKERS ABOVE 6
FEET.

0700 AM HIGH SURF JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
05/19/2009 DUVAL FL PUBLIC

JACKSONVILLE SURF SHOP REPORTED BREAKERS OF 8 FEET THIS
MORNING.

0700 AM HIGH SURF TALBOT ISLAND 30.47N 81.42W
05/19/2009 DUVAL FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS OCCURRING AT TALBOT ISLAND
STATE PARK.


&&

$$

MTRABERT

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KPSR [191307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 191307
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
607 AM MST TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0544 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 W CHANDLER 33.28N 111.96W
05/19/2009 M45.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

45 MPH MEASURED GUST NEAR VIRGA/LIGHT RAIN SHOWER.
LOCATION IS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM
FIREBIRD RACEWAY.


&&

$$

AJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191257
SWODY1
SPC AC 191253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE WLYS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE PACIFIC NW AND THE FAR NRN TIER
OF STATES THIS PERIOD AS HI PLNS RIDGE DRIFTS SLOWLY E TO THE OH
VLY. UPR LOW NOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND EXPECTED TO ELONGATE NE INTO
THE CANADIAN RCKYS...ENHANCING WSWLY MID LVL FLOW OVER THE NRN
RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS. FARTHER S...A WEAKER LOW WILL DRIFT E TOWARD SRN
CA...AND UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE W FL CST.

AT LWR LVLS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN STATES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE VANCOUVER UPR LOW. THE FRONT...AND HEIGHT
FALLS WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE UPR TROUGH...WILL FOSTER
SCTD STORM DEVELOPMENT AND AN ISOLD SVR THREAT OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

...MT SWD INTO SE ID/WRN WY AND NRN UT...
WDLY SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITH DIURNAL HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ACTIVITY MAY BE MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG BAND OF
PRE-FRONTAL 700 MB CONFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM UT INTO WRN WY. OTHER
STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT AND SPREAD NEWD.

LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...BUT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE STEEP. COUPLED WITH MODERATE/STRENGTHENING WSWLY MID
LVL FLOW...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS.
EMBEDDED SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS COULD YIELD GUSTY/EVAPORATIVELY-
ENHANCED WINDS.

ISOLD STRONG TO PERHAPS SVR CELLS ALSO MAY DEVELOP NEAR COLD FRONT
IN MT/ERN IS AND POSSIBLY NW WY LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVE.
DEEP WIND FIELD ON SE SIDE OF PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH WILL BE AMPLE
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...AND MAY SUPPORT ISOLD STORM
ROTATION. AS A RESULT...A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
STRONG WINDS/HAIL. SPARSE MOISTURE SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT OVERALL
SVR THREAT. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS THEY SPREAD E
INTO ERN MT.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/19/2009

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KMHX [191251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 191251
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
851 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TORNADO CAMP LEJEUNE MAIN GATE 34.70N 77.37W
05/07/2009 ONSLOW NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR CAMP LEJEUNE MAIN GATE. NO
DAMAGE REPORTED.


&&

$$

JW

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KPSR [191230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 191230
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
530 AM MST TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1007 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 ENE GUADALUPE 33.38N 111.89W
05/18/2009 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE UPROOTED


&&

$$

MHIRSCH

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KJAX [191224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 191224
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
824 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0821 AM HEAVY RAIN FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
05/19/2009 E0.00 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

RAIN TOTALS SINCE SUNDAY IN FLAGLER COUNTY ARE BUNNELL
7.20...NORTH PALM COAST 9.30...EAST PALM COAST 4.73 HAW
CREEK SOUTHWEST FLAGLER COUNTY 11.60...FLAGLER BEACH
4.96...FLAGLER AIRPORT 5.67.


&&

$$

BKERNS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 190859
SWOD48
SPC AC 190859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...WITH THE STRONGEST
WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. WEAK
SUMMER-LIKE WESTERLIES AND/OR LIMITED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND NO 30% DAY-1
EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS JUNCTURE.

ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...A POTENTIAL ONSHORE MOVEMENT THIS
WEEKEND OF THIS SYSTEM...AND AN ASSOCIATED MOIST INFLUX/POSSIBILITY
OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WIND FIELDS...MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SEVERE
TSTM POTENTIAL AROUND DAYS 5-7 SATURDAY-MONDAY ACROSS THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES. IN ADDITION...THIS SAME INCREASE OF MOISTURE
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD LEAD TO A BIT OF AN UPSWING OF
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH GENERAL WEAK FORCING/WEAK WINDS ON THE
LARGE SCALE ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LOW ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. SOME
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND /DAYS 5-6/ ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS VIA LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES.

..GUYER.. 05/19/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190731
SWODY3
SPC AC 190729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STAGNANT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY OVER MUCH
OF THE LOWER 48. PRIMARY WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY SHIFTS EASTWARD
OVER EASTERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MIGRATES WESTWARD...AND AN UPPER
LOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. IN ALL...THE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS FOR THURSDAY.

...FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
VICINITY INTO THURSDAY...VIA FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE PLAINS/SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY INFLUX TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHWEST DESERTS. WITHIN
THIS REGIME...A SOMEWHAT HIGHER PW ENVIRONMENT AND MODEST SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL/DOWNBURST THREAT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED/ISOLATED AT THIS JUNCTURE.
FARTHER EAST...GIVEN THE COOL/STABLE NATURE OF THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF THE
CO/NORTHEAST NM FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS ALSO APPEARS RATHER
LOW.

...GULF COAST STATES...
WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD BENEATH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES RIDGE...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD RESULT IN AN UPSWING OF WESTWARD
MOVING TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
GULF LOW AND SEEMINGLY LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 05/19/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190602
SWODY2
SPC AC 190600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...AS A STAGNANT UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF FL...WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS/NORTHWEST MEXICO. FARTHER NORTH...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PROVINCES AND ADJACENT NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AMIDST THE MAIN
BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES.

...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH STEADILY ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. AIDED BY THE GRADUAL DECAY OF THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AND
STRONG AFTERNOON/BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...ALONG WITH LATER DAY ONSET
OF LOW LEVEL POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT
RANGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE
THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WY/NEB PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
CO/SOUTHERN SD. WHILE MULTICELLULAR STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS/HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT MODE...A FEW HIGH-BASED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTHWARD
SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN NEB...AS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
DECOUPLE.

...NORTHERN MN...
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MN IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN THE PRESENCE
OF LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...00Z BASED MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE ELEVATED AND BASED IN
THE MID LEVELS...WITHIN A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE
SOME SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE...LIMITED MOISTURE/WEAK
BUOYANCY...AND SEEMINGLY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
CAPPING...SUGGEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

...SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...
ALTHOUGH MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS...GENERAL CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTS THAT THE STAGNANT LOW MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT WESTWARD AWAY FROM
THE COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER AFTERNOON HEATING...IN ADDITION TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.
THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UPSWING IN TSTM VIGOR WITH HAIL/DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 05/19/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190537
SWODY1
SPC AC 190534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
NWRN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE A WEAKER LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN
PACIFIC TOWARD SRN CA. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD DRIFT FROM
THE CENTRAL INTO THE ERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER FL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN
QUARTER OF THE CONUS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROGRESSING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS FRONT -- AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH -- WILL
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND AN ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

...MT SWD ACROSS SERN ID/WRN WY INTO NRN UT...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WEST...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL YIELD ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION...ISOLATED STRONGER
CELLS MAY DEVELOP INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT CROSSES MT/ERN
ID/WRN WY/NRN UT...AIDED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ON SERN
PORTIONS OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. COVERAGE OF THE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LOW...BUT LOCALLY-GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR --
AIDED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATION WITHIN DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER. THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT INTO THE
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN OVERALL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY WITH
TIME WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 05/19/2009

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KJAX [190529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 190529
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
129 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1241 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SE ST. AUGUSTINE 29.86N 81.26W
05/19/2009 M51.00 MPH AMZ454 FL C-MAN STATION

THE CMAN STATION MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH AND A
PEAK WIND GUST OF 51 MPH FROM 030 DEGREES. ANEMOMETER
HEIGHT IS 54 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL.


&&

$$

ARS

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KOTX [190516]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KOTX 190516
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1015 PM PDT MON MAY 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0901 PM HAIL 10 NW ANATONE 46.24N 117.27W
05/18/2009 M1.00 INCH ASOTIN WA PUBLIC

PUBLIC IN CLOVERLAND

0915 PM HAIL 4 N COLTON 46.63N 117.14W
05/18/2009 M1.00 INCH WHITMAN WA TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 PM HAIL 4 SE CLARKSTON 46.37N 116.99W
05/18/2009 M0.75 INCH NEZ PERCE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 PM HAIL MOSCOW 46.73N 117.00W
05/18/2009 M0.75 INCH LATAH ID PUBLIC

0935 PM HAIL 5 NE VIOLA 46.89N 116.95W
05/18/2009 M0.88 INCH LATAH ID TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

SBODNAR

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KJAX [190453]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 190453
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1253 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1146 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MAYPORT 30.38N 81.41W
05/18/2009 M49.00 MPH DUVAL FL AWOS

THE MAYPORT AWOS REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 49 MPH FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES.


&&

$$

ARS

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KOTX [190430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KOTX 190430
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
930 PM PDT MON MAY 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0901 PM HAIL 10 NW ANATONE 46.24N 117.27W
05/18/2009 M1.00 INCH ASOTIN WA PUBLIC

PUBLIC IN CLOVERLAND

0915 PM HAIL 4 N COLTON 46.63N 117.14W
05/18/2009 M1.00 INCH WHITMAN WA TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 PM HAIL 4 SE CLARKSTON 46.37N 116.99W
05/18/2009 M0.75 INCH NEZ PERCE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 PM HAIL MOSCOW 46.73N 117.00W
05/18/2009 M0.75 INCH LATAH ID PUBLIC


&&

$$

CNEUMAN

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KOTX [190426]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KOTX 190426
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
926 PM PDT MON MAY 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0901 PM HAIL 10 NW ANATONE 46.24N 117.27W
05/18/2009 M1.00 INCH ASOTIN WA PUBLIC

PUBLIC IN CLOVERLAND

0915 PM HAIL 4 N COLTON 46.63N 117.14W
05/18/2009 M1.00 INCH WHITMAN WA TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 PM HAIL 4 SE CLARKSTON 46.37N 116.99W
05/18/2009 M0.75 INCH NEZ PERCE ID TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CNEUMAN

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KPIH [190414]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 190414
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1014 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM TSTM WND GST S BURLEY 42.54N 113.79W
05/18/2009 U0.00 MPH CASSIA ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

CASSIA COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
ALONG WITH SOME HOUSE DAMAGE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN.


&&

$$

TWYATT

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KOTX [190407]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 190407
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
906 PM PDT MON MAY 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0901 PM HAIL 10 NW ANATONE 46.24N 117.27W
05/18/2009 M1.00 INCH ASOTIN WA PUBLIC

PUBLIC IN CLOVERLAND


&&

$$

CNEUMAN

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