SWODY3
SPC AC 190729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STAGNANT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY OVER MUCH
OF THE LOWER 48. PRIMARY WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY SHIFTS EASTWARD
OVER EASTERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MIGRATES WESTWARD...AND AN UPPER
LOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. IN ALL...THE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS FOR THURSDAY.
...FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
VICINITY INTO THURSDAY...VIA FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE PLAINS/SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY INFLUX TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHWEST DESERTS. WITHIN
THIS REGIME...A SOMEWHAT HIGHER PW ENVIRONMENT AND MODEST SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL/DOWNBURST THREAT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED/ISOLATED AT THIS JUNCTURE.
FARTHER EAST...GIVEN THE COOL/STABLE NATURE OF THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF THE
CO/NORTHEAST NM FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS ALSO APPEARS RATHER
LOW.
...GULF COAST STATES...
WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD BENEATH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES RIDGE...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD RESULT IN AN UPSWING OF WESTWARD
MOVING TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
GULF LOW AND SEEMINGLY LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 05/19/2009
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