KCYS [150455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 150455
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
955 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0951 PM SNOW LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
11/14/2009 M2.0 INCH ALBANY WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

LUNDQUIST

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KCYS [150453]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 150453
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
953 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0951 PM SNOW CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
11/14/2009 M2.0 INCH LARAMIE WY OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1.8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FALL.

&&

$$

LUNDQUIST

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KBOU [150445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 150445
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
945 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0943 PM SNOW 3 NE BERGEN PARK 39.72N 105.32W
11/14/2009 M4.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0939 PM SNOW FAIRPLAY 39.22N 106.00W
11/14/2009 M5.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0935 PM HEAVY SNOW 13 NW GOLDEN 39.87N 105.39W
11/14/2009 M6.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0935 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 N KITTREDGE 39.66N 105.30W
11/14/2009 M6.3 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0930 PM SNOW 2 N LONGMONT 40.20N 105.11W
11/14/2009 M2.7 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0922 PM SNOW LOUISVILLE 39.97N 105.14W
11/14/2009 M4.7 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0922 PM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
11/14/2009 M4.2 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0912 PM SNOW 4 W ARVADA 39.82N 105.18W
11/14/2009 M3.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0910 PM SNOW 2 W BOULDER 40.03N 105.29W
11/14/2009 M2.0 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0908 PM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.98N 105.44W
11/14/2009 M3.5 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0903 PM SNOW 1 S EVERGREEN 39.63N 105.34W
11/14/2009 M4.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 PM SNOW 5 SE PINECLIFFE 39.88N 105.36W
11/14/2009 M4.7 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

COAL CREEK CANYON

0835 PM SNOW 4 S EVERGREEN 39.58N 105.34W
11/14/2009 M4.6 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0816 PM SNOW 13 NW GOLDEN 39.87N 105.39W
11/14/2009 M4.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0753 PM SNOW LOUVIERS 39.47N 105.00W
11/14/2009 M3.3 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0719 PM SNOW BROOMFIELD 39.94N 105.06W
11/14/2009 M3.0 INCH BROOMFIELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FREDIN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KBOU [150430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 150430
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
930 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0922 PM SNOW LOUISVILLE 39.97N 105.14W
11/14/2009 M4.7 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0922 PM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
11/14/2009 M4.2 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0912 PM SNOW 4 W ARVADA 39.82N 105.18W
11/14/2009 M3.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0910 PM SNOW 2 W BOULDER 40.03N 105.29W
11/14/2009 M2.0 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0908 PM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.98N 105.44W
11/14/2009 M3.5 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0903 PM SNOW 1 S EVERGREEN 39.63N 105.34W
11/14/2009 M4.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 PM SNOW 5 SE PINECLIFFE 39.88N 105.36W
11/14/2009 M4.7 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

COAL CREEK CANYON

0835 PM SNOW 4 S EVERGREEN 39.58N 105.34W
11/14/2009 M4.6 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0816 PM SNOW 13 NW GOLDEN 39.87N 105.39W
11/14/2009 M4.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0753 PM SNOW LOUVIERS 39.47N 105.00W
11/14/2009 M3.3 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0719 PM SNOW BROOMFIELD 39.94N 105.06W
11/14/2009 M3.0 INCH BROOMFIELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FREDIN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KBOU [150404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 150404
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
904 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0903 PM SNOW 1 S EVERGREEN 39.63N 105.34W
11/14/2009 M4.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0835 PM SNOW 4 S EVERGREEN 39.58N 105.34W
11/14/2009 M4.6 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0816 PM SNOW 13 NW GOLDEN 39.87N 105.39W
11/14/2009 M4.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0753 PM SNOW LOUVIERS 39.47N 105.00W
11/14/2009 M3.3 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0719 PM SNOW BROOMFIELD 39.94N 105.06W
11/14/2009 M3.0 INCH BROOMFIELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FREDIN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KOKX [150240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 150240
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
939 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM STORM SURGE WESTHAMPTON 40.84N 72.66W
11/14/2009 U0.00 FT SUFFOLK NY BROADCAST MEDIA

DUNE ROAD REPORTED CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

$$

PFM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150053
SWODY1
SPC AC 150052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2009

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOW ONGOING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND VICINITY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD
OVERNIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD OUT
OF CO/NM INTO PARTS OF KS/OK/TX PNHDL REGION...AS STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM
DRIVES BOTH WEAK ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AND AMPLE ASCENT.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
ENGLAND...BUT APPRECIABLE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED HERE
-- OR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

..GOSS.. 11/15/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KDLH [150026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 150026
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM SNOW KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
11/14/2009 M3.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

-SN AT 615 PM.

&&

$$

SGOHDE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141931
SWODY1
SPC AC 141929

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2009

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FOUR CORNERS TO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SMALL CHANGES MADE TO
THE CATEGORICAL THUNDER LINE.

..MEAD.. 11/14/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2009/

...FOUR CORNERS TO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DIG SEWD TOWARDS THE
SRN ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY SUN. WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH...WHILE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NERN OK INTO NWRN TX DRIFTS SWD AND BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY. LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN
INVOF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS POLEWARD
TRANSPORT OF A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS CONTINUES FROM THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE
FOUR CORNERS WHERE MEAGER INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH FORCED ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN TONIGHT FARTHER E ACROSS THE PLAINS
WHERE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING LOWER-LEVEL MOISTENING/ASCENT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS SRN
KS/NRN OK.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141845
SWODY2
SPC AC 141844

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2009

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTOR

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL TRANSLATE GENERALLY EWD FROM THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH TIME AS THE
GFS SUGGESTS CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER KS/OK BY 16/12Z. IN
CONTRAST...THE NAM MAINTAINS A MORE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
CONFIGURATION WITH THE CLOSED CIRCULATION SITUATED OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT
OF THE 14/00Z ECMWF AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...WRN EXTENSION OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INITIALLY
ORIENTED IN E-W FASHION FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL PIVOT CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY. ANY THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM SERN OK/WRN AR INTO CNTRL TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
NIGHT.

...SERN OK/WRN AR INTO CNTRL TX...

THE RETURN OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY ONE AND TWO PERIODS IN ADVANCE OF SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 60S
WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL EFFECTIVELY LIMIT MLCAPE TO
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER CO
VALLEY AND NRN BAJA/GULF OF CA IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE PRIMARY UPPER
SYSTEM EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ALONG THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON FROM SERN OK INTO N-CNTRL TX. STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BOTH N AND S ALONG EWD-MOVING FRONTAL
ZONE SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT /I.E. 45-60 KT
THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL/...THE ABSENCE OF A MORE ROBUST LLJ /AND
RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WEAK LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. NONETHELESS...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EPISODIC...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.

..MEAD.. 11/14/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KOKX [141742]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 141742
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1241 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0918 AM STORM SURGE LITTLE FERRY 40.85N 74.04W
11/14/2009 U0.00 FT BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

ALL LANES CLOSED ON LITTLE FERRY CIRCLE NEAR INTERSECTION
WITH RT. 46 DUE TO TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

$$

JM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPIH [141706]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 141706
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1006 AM MST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1004 AM SNOW 2 E POCATELLO 42.88N 112.44W
11/14/2009 M1.5 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL IN 4 1/2 HOURS - SNOW COVERED ROADS - ISU AREA

&&

$$

PANGEL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141653
SWODY2
SPC AC 141651

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2009

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL TRANSLATE GENERALLY EWD FROM THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH TIME AS THE
GFS SUGGESTS CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER KS/OK BY 16/12Z. IN
CONTRAST...THE NAM MAINTAINS A MORE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
CONFIGURATION WITH THE CLOSED CIRCULATION SITUATED OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT
OF THE 14/00Z ECMWF AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...WRN EXTENSION OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INITIALLY
ORIENTED IN E-W FASHION FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL PIVOT CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY. ANY THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM SERN OK/WRN AR INTO CNTRL TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
NIGHT.

...SERN OK/WRN AR INTO CNTRL...

THE RETURN OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY ONE AND TWO PERIODS IN ADVANCE OF SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 60S
WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL EFFECTIVELY LIMIT MLCAPE TO
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER CO
VALLEY AND NRN BAJA/GULF OF CA IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE PRIMARY UPPER
SYSTEM EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ALONG THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON FROM SERN OK INTO N-CNTRL TX. STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BOTH N AND S ALONG EWD-MOVING FRONTAL
ZONE SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT /I.E. 45-60 KT
THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL/...THE ABSENCE OF A MORE ROBUST LLJ /AND
RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WEAK LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. NONETHELESS...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EPISODIC...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.

..MEAD.. 11/14/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141626
SWODY1
SPC AC 141624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2009

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FOUR CORNERS TO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DIG SEWD TOWARDS THE
SRN ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY SUN. WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH...WHILE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NERN OK INTO NWRN TX DRIFTS SWD AND BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY. LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN
INVOF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS POLEWARD
TRANSPORT OF A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS CONTINUES FROM THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE
FOUR CORNERS WHERE MEAGER INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH FORCED ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN TONIGHT FARTHER E ACROSS THE PLAINS
WHERE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING LOWER-LEVEL MOISTENING/ASCENT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS SRN
KS/NRN OK.

..GRAMS/HART.. 11/14/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPDT [141421]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 141421
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
621 AM PST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 AM SNOW 2 E MEACHAM 45.51N 118.38W
11/14/2009 M7.0 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL OF 7 INCHES SINCE NOON YESTERDAY. WATER
EQUIVALENT OF 0.83. STILL GETTING FLURRIES.

&&

$$

GKH

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141241
SWODY1
SPC AC 141239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2009

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ID/NV THIS MORNING WHICH WILL DIG SEWD TO THE
FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY SUNDAY. WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN NWD ADVECTION OF A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS FROM THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO TO TX/OK. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT /IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS/
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS
WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
WEAK INSTABILITY...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING
COINCIDES WITH ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE
THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN TONIGHT OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS WHERE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL.
SIMILARLY...DESPITE THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WARM SECTOR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE AS A RESULT OF WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 11/14/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMHX [141159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 141159
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
659 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM FLOOD BEAUFORT 34.72N 76.65W
11/14/2009 CARTERET NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

1000 FRONT STREET AND PORTIONS OF TURNER STREET ARE
IMPASSABLE DUE TO COASTAL WATER INUNDATION FROM TAYLOR
CREEK.

&&

$$

SJAMISON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMHX [141154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 141154
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
654 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM FLOOD OTWAY 34.78N 76.56W
11/14/2009 CARTERET NC BROADCAST MEDIA

PAMLICO SOUND WATER...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH RIVER
BETWEEN BEAUFORT AND MARSHALLBERG...IS INUNDATING LOCAL
COMMUNITIES WITH WATER 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. ROADS
BETWEEN MARSHALLBERG AND GLOUCESTER ARE IMPASSABLE. WATER
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON GILLIKIN
ROAD NEAR OTWAY.

&&

$$

SJAMISON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KCHS [141134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 141134
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
634 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0548 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
11/14/2009 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL

NOS TIDE GAGE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR REACHED 7.37 FEET MLLW
DURING THE HIGH TIDE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY
BEGINS AROUND 7.0 FEET MLLW.

0548 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
11/14/2009 CHARLESTON SC PUBLIC

CHARLESTON PILOT BOAT OFFICE REPORTS A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF SALT WATER IN THEIR PARKING LOT ON CONCORD STREET
DURING THE HIGH TIDE.

&&

$$

33

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KILM [141128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 141128
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
628 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CAROLINA BEACH 34.04N 77.90W
11/14/2009 NEW HANOVER NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

CANAL DRIVE IN CAROLINA BEACH IS IMPASSABLE DUE TO
COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

$$

TRA

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KILM [141108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 141108
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
607 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES MYRTLE BEACH 33.70N 78.89W
11/14/2009 HORRY SC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

TIDE GAUGE REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 7.55 FT MLLW...0.05 FT
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

0530 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 34.21N 77.80W
11/14/2009 NEW HANOVER NC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

TIDE GAUGE REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 6.60 FT MLLW...0.60 FEET
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

$$

TRA

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KILM [140959]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 140959
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
458 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0457 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 34.21N 77.80W
11/14/2009 NEW HANOVER NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH POLICE REPORT WATER IS UP TO THE
DUNES. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH TIDE GAUGE IS AT 6.59 FEET.

&&

$$

TRA

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140726
SWODY3
SPC AC 140725

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2009

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL EVOLVE FROM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER INTERIOR PAC
NW REGION. THIS PERTURBATION WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DIGS SEWD ACROSS
4-CORNERS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS THROUGH DAY-2...YIELDING LARGE
CYCLONE CENTERED INVOF ERN TX PANHANDLE BY 16/12Z. THIS LOW THEN
SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS OK...DECELERATING TO QUASISTATIONARY AND
BECOMING TEMPORARILY CUT OFF FROM NRN HEMISPHERIC WLYS AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND DAKOTAS.

MEANWHILE...SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW EVIDENT FROM LS TO ERN KS TO OK
PANHANDLE -- IS FCST TO EXTEND FROM S-CENTRAL TX NEWD ACROSS
ARKLATEX REGION INTO WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW INVOF SWRN AR. BY
17/00Z...FRONT SHOULD MOVE WELL OFFSHORE TX COAST...WHILE MOVING
MORE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS LA AND SRN AR...S OF FRONTAL-WAVE LOW.

...SE TX...LA...SRN AR...
BAND OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
TSTMS...IS EXPECTED INVOF FRONT AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...SHIFTING
EWD OVER SE TX AND ARKLATEX REGIONS DURING REMAINDER MORNING. MUCH
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ROOTED ABOVE SFC. IT IS UNCERTAIN TO WHAT
EXTENT...IF ANY...ALREADY MRGL SVR POTENTIAL FROM LATE IN DAY-2
PERIOD EXTENDS INTO EARLY DAY-3 ACROSS THIS REGION...GIVEN MULTITUDE
OF FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...EXPECT PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TO DESTABILIZES SOMEWHAT FROM COMBINATION OF SLOW SFC HEATING
AND THETAE ADVECTION...WITH SERN FRINGES OF STG MID-UPPER FLOW
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WEAKENING CONVERGENCE
WITH TIME...AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY ALL INDICATE SVR
POTENTIAL IS TOO ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL FOR AOA 5-PERCENT PROBABILITY
AREA ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 11/14/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 140611
SWODY2
SPC AC 140610

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2009

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST DAY-2...AS STG CYCLONE NOW
OFFSHORE CAROLINAS MOVES FARTHER OUT OVER ATLANTIC...AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER DAKOTAS EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS ONT/QUE.
SRN PORTION OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WA/ORE -- IS FCST TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE SEWD
DAY-1...LEADING TO CLOSED 500 MB LOW INVOF 4-CORNERS BY 15/12Z. STG
CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONG MOST SREF MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL
SPECTRAL/WRF WITH THIS LOW REACHING ERN PANHANDLE OF TX BY END OF
PERIOD...EMBEDDED WITHIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM MN-CHIHUAHUA.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT INITIALLY WAS ANALYZED FROM WRN LS SWWD ACROSS
IA...ERN KS...AND OK PANHANDLE. BY 15/12Z...FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE
TO POSITION NEAR ERN LH...CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA...S-CENTRAL/SERN
OK...THEN WWD ACROSS PORTIONS TX SOUTH PLAINS OR SRN PANHANDLE. AS
MID/UPPER LOW APCHS...FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX...MOVING TO NEAR TXK BY 16/12Z.

...S-CENTRAL TX TO ARKLATEX REGION...
APCH OF CYCLONE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN HEIGHT GRADIENTS AND MID-UPPER
FLOW OVER THIS REGION...WHILE NARROW BUT INCREASINGLY WELL-MODIFIED
PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THAT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK
AREA DURING PERIOD...WITH SOME SWD EXPANSION LIKELY. BY
CONTRAST...STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALOFT
WILL REMAIN BEHIND FRONT...AND PREFRONTAL/WAA REGIME IS PROGGED TO
CONTAIN 850 MB WINDS BELOW 25 KT...LIMITING HODOGRAPH SIZE. SERIES
OF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
LACK OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE TO LIMIT DEPTH/MAGNITUDE
OF BUOYANCY...WITH ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS BEING PRIMARY BUT MRGL SVR
CONCERN ATTM.

CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER S INTO
CENTRAL/S TX DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS FRONTAL ZONE IMPINGES UPON
GREATER WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE CONTENT. DESPITE SFC DEW POINTS 60S F
IN PROXIMITY TO THIS ACTIVITY...CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY PRESENCE
OF WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..EDWARDS.. 11/14/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140540
SWODY1
SPC AC 140539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2009

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
W IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE GRT BASIN SATURDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE THE NRN
STREAM WAVE OVER THE DKTS NEWD INTO ONTARIO ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPR RIDGE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD.

IN THE LWR LVLS...CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE NRN STREAM WAVE AND THE WRN
STATES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE UPR GRTLKS AND SWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS. WRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL STALL
BRIEFLY SATURDAY AFTN/EVE AS CYCLOGENESIS EVOLVES OVER THE SRN
PLATEAU...BUT THEN RESUME SEWD TRANSLATION ACROSS THE DESERT SW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER PLNS.

...FOUR CORNERS REGION EWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLNS...
STRONG POSITIVE-VORTICITY TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TURN EWD ACROSS UT/AZ
SATURDAY AFTN...THEN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE
EVENING. VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPIDLY
MOISTENING PROFILES AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...A FEW
TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY FROM PARTS OF SRN UT/NRN AZ EWD INTO SWRN CO
AND NWRN NM. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ENE TOWARD THE SRN HIGH
PLNS SATURDAY NIGHT. NO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AS THERMAL BUOYANCY
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 11/14/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.