Saturday, November 14, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141241
SWODY1
SPC AC 141239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2009

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ID/NV THIS MORNING WHICH WILL DIG SEWD TO THE
FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY SUNDAY. WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN NWD ADVECTION OF A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS FROM THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO TO TX/OK. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT /IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS/
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS
WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
WEAK INSTABILITY...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING
COINCIDES WITH ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE
THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN TONIGHT OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS WHERE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL.
SIMILARLY...DESPITE THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WARM SECTOR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE AS A RESULT OF WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 11/14/2009

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