KMHX [100129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 100129
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
929 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0926 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 N BEAUFORT 34.81N 76.65W
09/09/2007 M8.30 INCH CARTERET NC NWS EMPLOYEE

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ALONG HIGHWAY 101 NORTH OF
BEAUFORT.

&&

$$

SJAMISON

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KMHX [100105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 100105
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
905 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0858 PM STORM SURGE 3 SSW RODANTHE 35.57N 75.48W
09/09/2007 E1.50 FT DARE NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

WATER FROM THE PAMLICO SOUND COVERING PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY
12 NEAR SALVO.

&&

$$

SJAMISON

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KOUN [100052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 100052
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
752 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N WICHITA FALLS 33.99N 98.50W
09/09/2007 WICHITA TX AMATEUR RADIO

SIX POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN BY NORTH WINDS FROM AN
APPARANT MICROBURST JUST WEST OF INTERSECTION OF FM 171
ROAD AND ROGERS LANE.

0600 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 S THORNBERRY 34.01N 98.39W
09/09/2007 CLAY TX AMATEUR RADIO

FM ROAD 1740 UNDER WATER FROM WICHITA COUNTY LINE NE TO
FM ROAD 2393.

&&

$$

FM

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KKEY [100035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 100035
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
834 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0748 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 7 S BOCA CHICA 24.49N 81.70W
09/09/2007 GMZ054 FL OTHER FEDERAL

THE WEATHER OBSERVER AT BOCA CHICA NAVAL AIR STATION
OBSERVED A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER HAWK CHANNEL...7 MILES SOUTH
OF BOCA CHICA. DURATION 20 MINUTES. THE FUNNEL CLOUD
OCCURRED NEAR AN OUTFLOW COLLISION ZONE.

&&

$$

KASPER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100033
SWODY1
SPC AC 100030

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN NM EWD INTO CNTRL TX...

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL
AND SRN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. 00Z ELP SOUNDING IS QUITE
REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...EXHIBITING
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND GRADUAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THIS
EVENING...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH MORE INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 03-04Z.

ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG MULTIPLE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM ABI TO THE METROPLEX. 00Z MAF/FTW
SOUNDINGS SHOW POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER AIR MASS REMAINS
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST S OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH SBCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. HERE TOO...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

.MEAD.. 09/10/2007

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KLKN [092338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KLKN 092338 CCA
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
438 PM PDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0257 PM TSTM WND GST 12 NNW CURRIE 40.44N 114.81W
09/04/2007 M59.00 MPH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

SPRUCE MOUNTAIN RAWS...TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR

0410 PM TSTM WND GST 11 SW WEST WENDOVER 40.65N 114.26W
09/04/2007 M58.00 MPH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

SPRING GULCH RAWS...TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR

&&

$$

RCM

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KALY [092308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KALY 092308
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
708 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG NORTH ADAMS 42.69N 73.11W
09/09/2007 BERKSHIRE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND WIRES DOWN AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. ALSO ROOFS
BLOWN OFF 3 TO 5 RESIDENCE TOWN HOUSES AT MASSACHUSETTS
COLLEGE OF LIBERAL ARTS. NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED.

&&

$$

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KMHX [092303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 092303
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
703 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0703 PM HEAVY RAIN MOREHEAD CITY 34.72N 76.73W
09/09/2007 M5.50 INCH CARTERET NC NWS EMPLOYEE

FIVE AND A HALF INCHES SINCE RAIN BEGAN.

&&

$$

AUSTIN

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KMHX [092243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 092243
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
643 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0642 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 N BEAUFORT 34.76N 76.65W
09/09/2007 M5.25 INCH CARTERET NC NWS EMPLOYEE

FIVE AND A QUARTER INCHES OF RAIN SINCE EVENT BEGAN.

&&

$$

AUSTIN

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KALY [092239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KALY 092239
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG NORTH ADAMS 42.69N 73.11W
09/09/2007 BERKSHIRE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND WIRES DOWN AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. ALSO A SHEET
OF METAL FELL OFF A ROOF AT MASSACHUSETTS COLLEGE OF
LIBERAL ARTS.

&&

$$

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KMHX [092204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 092204
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
603 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0557 PM HEAVY RAIN HARLOWE 34.84N 76.74W
09/09/2007 M4.75 INCH CARTERET NC TRAINED SPOTTER

FOUR AND THREE QUARTERS INCHES OF RAIN SINCE EVENT BEGAN.

0557 PM HEAVY RAIN MOREHEAD CITY 34.72N 76.73W
09/09/2007 M4.00 INCH CARTERET NC NWS EMPLOYEE

FOUR INCHES SINCE EVENT BEGAN.

&&

$$

AUSTIN

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KILN [092201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 092201
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
601 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE MILLERSPORT 39.87N 82.50W
09/08/2007 FAIRFIELD OH BROADCAST MEDIA

TWENTY TREES WERE DOWNED. THREE HOMES SUSTAINED MINOR
DAMAGE FROM THE TREE DEBRIS. SEVERAL LIMBS WERE TOSSED
INTO BUCKEYE LAKE. A FEW FLAG POLES WERE BENT. POSSIBLE
MICROBURST.

&&

$$

RYAN

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KALY [092149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 092149
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
549 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG NORTH ADAMS 42.69N 73.11W
09/09/2007 BERKSHIRE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND WIRES DOWN AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

&&

$$

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KFWD [092055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 092055
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM HEAVY RAIN MIDLOTHIAN 32.49N 97.00W
09/09/2007 E1.20 INCH ELLIS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NEARLY A FOOT OF WATER OVER N WALNUT RD AT HWY 1387.
TYPICAL LOW-LYING AREA...NOT SERIOUS ATTM.

$$

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KFWD [092038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 092038
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0334 PM FLASH FLOOD CROWLEY 32.58N 97.36W
09/09/2007 TARRANT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

CROWLEY PD REPORTS S CROWLEY ROAD HAS WATER OVER THE
ROAD FROM HARRIS ST TO THE 1187 BYPASS.

$$

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KTSA [092037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 092037
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 E CORINNE 34.19N 95.24W
09/09/2007 PUSHMATAHA OK PUBLIC

WATER OVER SECONDARY ROADS

&&

$$

NMK

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KFWD [092025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 092025
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM FLASH FLOOD GARLAND 32.91N 96.63W
09/09/2007 DALLAS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

GARLAND PD REPORTS ROAD CLOSURES AND BARRICADES NEEDED
AT WYNN-JOYCE AND COUNTRY CLUB AND AT 1ST AND AVENUE D

$$

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KTSA [092014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 092014
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM FLASH FLOOD MUSKOGEE 35.75N 95.37W
09/09/2007 MUSKOGEE OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL FLOODED ROADS AROUND MUSKOGEE.

0410 AM FLASH FLOOD FORT SMITH 35.39N 94.40W
09/09/2007 SEBASTIAN AR BROADCAST MEDIA

MAJOR STREET FLOODING AND CARS STRANDED IN FORT SMITH.

0415 AM FLASH FLOOD VAN BUREN 35.44N 94.35W
09/09/2007 CRAWFORD AR BROADCAST MEDIA

MAJOR STREET FLOODING WITH SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED.

0447 AM FLASH FLOOD GREENWOOD 35.22N 94.26W
09/09/2007 SEBASTIAN AR BROADCAST MEDIA

STREETS FLOODED.

0700 AM FLASH FLOOD 9 SW HEAVENER 34.80N 94.71W
09/09/2007 LE FLORE OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

SECONDARY ROADS FLOODED THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN LEFLORE
COUNTY.

0830 AM FLASH FLOOD BIG CEDAR 34.65N 94.65W
09/09/2007 LE FLORE OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

BRIDGES WASHED OUT NEAR BIG CEDAR. SECONDARY ROADS
CONTINUE TO BE FLOODED ACROSS SOUTHERN LEFLORE COUNTY.

1030 AM FLASH FLOOD HARTSHORNE 34.85N 95.56W
09/09/2007 PITTSBURG OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROADS IMPASSIBLE DUE TO HIGH WATER...FLOODING IN
YARDS...SEWER PROBLEMS.

&&

$$

NMK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 092003
SWODY1
SPC AC 092000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO WRN NM THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SERN NM/FAR W TX. SURFACE
HEATING WITHIN THIS MOIST AIR MASS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY FROM FAR W TX INTO SWRN NM/SERN AZ. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER FARTHER N INTO CENTRAL/NRN NM...GREATER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ATTENDANT WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NM MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT. FARTHER S...FROM FAR W TX TO FAR SERN AZ...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE LOW DUE TO WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...DESPITE STRONGER INSTABILITY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT.

..PARTS OF SRN OK/N TX EWD INTO LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHICH EXTENDED FROM W THROUGH N TX INTO SRN AR TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THESE
AREAS. AIR MASS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS
VERY MOIST /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/. ADDITIONAL SURFACE
HEATING...ALONG AND S OF MAIN ZONE OF ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY...WILL
MAINTAIN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OVERALL WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND/OR WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A FORECAST FOR HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HELP
TO PROMOTE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH WET MICROBURSTS.

..PARTS OF PA/SERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW LOCATED OVER LAKE ERIE
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH FAR NRN PA INTO CT TO SERN
MA. THIS SURFACE LOW...ATTENDANT TO AN EWD MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...WILL TRACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT SPREADING EWD AND EXTENDING FROM ERN NY/PA TO
VA/CENTRAL NC BY 12Z MONDAY. DESPITE 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY NEGATE ANY
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THUS...GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW...LESS THAN 5%
PROBABILITY.

..ERN NC...
MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF T.S. GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED ACROSS
FAR ERN NC...40 WNW HSE. DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED LOCATED S OF THE CENTER OVER AND OFFSHORE OF THE SRN OUTER
BANKS SO FAR TODAY. THE QUADRANT THAT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
TORNADO THREAT IS MAINLY OFFSHORE AND HAS LACKED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THIS FACTOR AND OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS THIS T.S. MOVING OFFSHORE AFTER 10/00Z WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO THREAT FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.PETERS.. 09/09/2007

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KCHS [091922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 091922
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
322 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM RIP CURRENTS TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
09/09/2007 CHATHAM GA PARK/FOREST SRVC

REPORT FROM THE LIFEGUARDS OF A FEW RIP CURRENTS ABOUT
150 YARDS NORTH OF THE PIER.

&&

$$

33

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KKEY [091918]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 091918
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
318 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0232 PM TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
09/09/2007 M46 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 40 KNOTS WAS MEASURED BY THE
SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION AT 232 PM EDT.

&&

$$

BS

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KOUN [091908]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 091908
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
208 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 SW HOLLIS 34.64N 99.98W
09/09/2007 HARMON OK PUBLIC

RISING WATER FLOWING ACROSS COUNTY ROAD. RAINFALL SO FAR
ESTIMATED IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES.

&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [091859]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 091859
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
159 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 WNW GOODLETT 34.35N 99.93W
09/09/2007 HARDEMAN TX PUBLIC

WATER FLOWING ACROSS US HWY 287. REPORT RELAYED VIA WFO
LBB. 2.61 INCHES MEASURED AT GOODLETT MESONET SITE IN ONE
HOUR.

&&

$$

FM

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091732
SWODY2
SPC AC 091730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. 12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH
EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...BY CUTTING OFF A LOW ACROSS ERN UT/CO DAY
2...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS CURRENT NRN
ROCKIES TROUGH. IN THE EAST...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A LEADING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD THROUGH LOWER MS
VALLEY TO TX. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONTAL SURGE IS EXPECTED
SWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.

TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS EWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY DURING DAY 2...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND/OR INSTABILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.

..CENTRAL/ERN NM...
DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...A FEW
TSTMS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW
BENEATH WLY FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY
ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ERN NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUICKLY UNDERCUT AS
THIS BOUNDARY SURGES SWD. THE PRESENCE OF A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING DAY 1 IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL
COLD FRONT LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM CHANCES
ON DAY 2. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME SURFACE HEATING
RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF ERN NM ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY WITH
PROBABILITY FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

.PETERS.. 09/09/2007

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KSHV [091635]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 091635
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1134 AM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM FLASH FLOOD 10 W BROKEN BOW 34.03N 94.91W
09/09/2007 MCCURTAIN OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

CAMPERS STANDED ALONG GLOVER RIVER REQUIRING RESCUE.

&&

$$

14

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091629
SWODY1
SPC AC 091626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ALONG NRN TIER OF STATES TODAY.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH...SEVERAL WEAKER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES
WILL EXIST. AT THE SFC...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
SRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NRN APPALACHIANS/SRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. FURTHER WEST...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES AS PRESSURE FALLS COMMENCE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND/OR
LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH ANY TSTMS THAT OCCUR
ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY.

..NRN APPALACHIANS/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OHIO...A SFC WAVE HAS DEVELOPED
OVER CENTRAL PA. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
TO THE EAST OF A CLOUD SHIELD AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...FROM ERN PA/SERN HALF OF NY INTO PARTS OF
WRN CT/WRN MA. ACROSS THIS AREA...MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES /30 KTS ON THE REGIONAL VWP DATA/ ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6 C/KM/ NOTED
ON THE 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SVR WIND THREAT.

..NWRN TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
ALONG A CONVECTIVE AIDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR ABI
ENEWD TO NEAR MEM...MODEST CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD AID IN NEW DEVELOPMENT OR
STRENGTHENING OF ONGOING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WEAK
WIND FIELDS /AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE/ WILL SUPPORT PULSE
TYPE TSTMS WITH HVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT. AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST
MAY OCCUR WHERE CELL MERGERS LOCALLY ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH.

..SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHED WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
AND RESIDES ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AT MIDDAY.
STABLE/COOL AIR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REINFORCED BY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING LGT/MOD
PRECIPITATION...DESPITE PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THEREFORE...THE
BEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
CENTRAL CO SWD INTO SCENTRAL NM WHERE MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000
J/KG ARE EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THIS INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS NM...UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF A VORT LOBE MOVING OUT OF SERN AZ
MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT. FURTHER
NORTH...STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER WIND FIELDS
/ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING NRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH/ WILL
EXIST OVER CENTRAL CO THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBILITY THE IMMEDIATE
FOOTHILLS LATE TODAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG SHOULD ALSO LIMIT THE SVR THREAT.

..ERN NC...
T.S GABRIELLE HAS NOW MOVED ACROSS THE SRN OUTER BANKS OF NC.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY STILL DEVELOP IN
THE L.F QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES NWD THROUGH TONIGHT
/SEE NHC FOR OFFICIAL TRACK FCST/. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF A
TORNADO.

.CROSBIE/HALES.. 09/09/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091255
SWODY1
SPC AC 091253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN RCKYS TO THE
UPR GRT LKS...N OF ELONGATED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SRN RCKYS TO THE GULF CST STATES. COLD FRONTAL SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING LK SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE S INTO THE SRN PLNS AND REINFORCE EXISTING BOUNDARY THAT
HAS BECOME MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FROM W TX AND SRN/ERN OK THROUGH
THE LWR OH VLY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. S OF THE FRONT...T.S.
GABRIELLE IS SLOWLY APPROACHING CAPE LOOKOUT NC ATTM. THE STORM
SHOULD TURN MORE NWD LATER TODAY...CROSSING THE NC OUTER
BANKS/COASTAL SOUNDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE WEST...RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN CANADA SHOULD KEEP ID
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FAIRLY STRONG AS IT CONTINUES ESE INTO ERN WY EARLY
MONDAY.

..NY/PA...
SATELLITE AND VWP DATA SHOW AN IMPULSE OVER IND ATTM...IN BELT OF
FLOW IMMEDIATELY N OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CONTINUE ENE TODAY...BECOMING ABSORBED IN STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW
OVER THE NERN STATES. WHILE MID/UPR LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPR
IMPULSE WILL TEMPER DESTABILIZATION...SFC HEATING SHOULD STILL BOOST
SBCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN NRN PA/SE NY
INTO SRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED WITH UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE AND
30-35 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY MID LVL FLOW...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW
CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GIVEN WEAK CAP
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

..ERN NC...
A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS T.S.
GABRIELLE CROSSES NE NC TODAY. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR
SYSTEM/S CENTER OF CIRCULATION...WHERE TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED
OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
IN NRN QUADRANT OF THE T.S. AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION ALONG
CONFLUENCE BAND/WARM FRONT OVER NE NC/FAR SE VA. LOW LVL SHEAR IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...BUT MAY BE COMPENSATED FOR BY
GREATER LOW LVL INSTABILITY/UPDRAFT STRENGTH.

..N TX ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TO NRN MS/WRN TN...
AXIS OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ON THE SRN EDGE OF
CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
SHEAR WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY. BUT GIVEN HI
PWS...A COUPLE WET MICROBURST EVENTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STRONGER SFC HEATING.

..SRN HI PLNS W INTO THE RCKYS...
ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUX AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF REINFORCING
FRONTAL SURGE...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM W TX WWD INTO MUCH OF NM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
REGION WILL LIE BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW OF UPR RIDGE. POCKETS OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY...TERRAIN INFLUENCES...AND STORM
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS COULD YIELD A ISOLATED WIND AND/OR MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL REPORTS...BUT THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SVR ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW.

FARTHER N ACROSS PARTS OF CO/WY...SCTD STORMS SHOULD FORM IN
WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT MORE STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM ID
IMPULSE. UVV WILL INCREASE AS ID SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
..AND THIS MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT
POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HI WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 09/09/2007

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KTSA [091136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report ...correction...

NWUS54 KTSA 091136 CCA
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT ...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 AM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 AM FLASH FLOOD GREENWOOD 35.22N 94.26W
09/09/2007 SEBASTIAN AR PUBLIC

ONE BUSINESS FLOODED. GREENWOOD PD CLOSING DENVER
STREET.

&&

$$

MAT

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KTSA [091124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 091124
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 AM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 AM FLASH FLOOD GREENWOOD 35.22N 94.26W
09/09/2007 SEBASTIAN AR PUBLIC

SEVERAL BUSINESS BUILDINGS FLOODED. GREENWOOD PD CLOSING
NUMEROUS STREETS IN TOWN.

&&

$$

MAT

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 090858
SWOD48
SPC AC 090857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

..DISCUSSION...
THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A RELATIVELY GREATER
SEVERE POTENTIAL DAY 5 OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION. BOTH MODELS
DEPICT A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH EXPANDING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
AROUND DAY 5...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALSO MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

GIVEN A MOIST WARM SECTOR ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH
ENHANCED WLY FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE EXPANDING
TROUGH...AND SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED S OF THE FRONT...SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS
TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT ANY ADDITIONAL OUTLOOK AREAS.

.GOSS.. 09/09/2007

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KMAF [090759]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 090759
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
259 AM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0258 AM FLASH FLOOD HOBBS 32.73N 103.16W
09/09/2007 LEA NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

HOBBS PD REPORTS MANY STREETS IN TOWN IMPASSABLE DUE TO
HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

70

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 090729
SWODY3
SPC AC 090727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND NAM INCREASE THIS PERIOD...WITH RESPECT
TO THE HANDLING OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
ROCKIES. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE
/CENTERED OVER NERN OK AT 12/00Z/...WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS A MUCH
STRONGER TROUGH/LOW WHICH PROGRESSES MORE SLOWLY SEWD /CENTERED OVER
NERN CO AT 12/00Z/.

AS A CONSEQUENCE...THE NAM IS SUGGESTIVE OF A LIMITED/LOW-END SEVERE
THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY BUT AMPLE SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED/STRONGER
STORMS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOES NOT SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN THIRD OF THE
CONUS INVOF LINGERING FRONT...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LOW. THUS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS
FORECAST...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY AREA COULD BE REQUIRED IN LATER
FORECASTS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DEPENDING UPON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.GOSS.. 09/09/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1952

ACUS11 KWNS 090727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090727
NCZ000-091000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN NC...PRIMARILY OUTER BANKS FOR
T.S. GABRIELLE TORNADO POTENTIAL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 090727Z - 091000Z

BRIEF/SMALL TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY SUPERCELLS THAT MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN SPIRAL CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE BANDS...MAINLY NE OF
CENTER. LATEST NHC FCST TRACK...PER ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC...SUGGESTS MOST FAVORABLE SECTOR OF SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MAINLY OUTER BANKS...FROM INNER CORE REGION OF CYCLONE OUTWARD
NNEWD-NEWD. BECAUSE OF MRGL NATURE OF RISK AND ITS VERY LIMITED
SPATIAL EXTENT OVER LAND...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL ZONE -- DISTINGUISHING
TROPICAL/MARINE AIR WITH 70S TEMPS/DEW POINTS FROM COOLER/DRIER
INLAND AIR MASS...FROM ERN ALBEMARLE SOUND SSWWD ACROSS PAMLICO
SOUND TO ABOUT 20 SSE NKT THEN SSWWD OVER ATLANTIC WATERS OFFSHORE
ILM. OFFSHORE SFC TROUGH EXTENDS NEWD FROM TS CENTER. FRONT MAY
DRIFT WWD ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS DARE/HYDE AND PAMLICO COUNTIES
BEFORE PASSAGE OF TS CENTER. THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN
HOURS...MOST FAVORABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
OUTER BANKS -- ALONG AND E OF BAROCLINIC GRADIENT -- WHERE MRGLLY
BUOYANT MARINE AIR FROM ATLANTIC IS N PLACE. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
THERMODYNAMIC SOUNDINGS -- LATTER TYPICALLY BEING MORE
REPRESENTATIVE IN TROPICAL SITUATIONS THAN RUC WIND PROFILES --
INDICATE MLCAPE INCREASING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG OVER ERN PAMLICO
SOUND TO OVER 1500 J/KG OFFSHORE. ACTUAL BUOYANCY SHOULD CORRESPOND
QUITE CLOSELY TO SFC THETAE VALUES...GIVEN NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES THROUGH DEEP LAYER ALOFT AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
STABLE/CAPPING LAYERS EXPECTED IN THIS REGIME.

KINEMATIC PROFILE IS MORE UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL
SAMPLING...WITH 6Z MHX RAOB MISSING WIND DATA AND MHX VWP LOCATED
LEFTWARD OF FCST STORM TRACK IN LESS FAVORABLE KINEMATIC SECTOR.
ALSO...RUC-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS OF WIND-BASED PARAMETERS
LIKELY DO NOT REPRESENT THIS SYSTEM WELL -- ESPECIALLY WITH INWARD
EXTENT TOWARD CENTER -- BECAUSE OF THAT MODEL'S POOR RESOLUTION OF
TIGHT/TROPICAL PRESSURE/WIND GRADIENTS. STILL...PRIND SMALL AREA OF
NERN QUADRANT ALONG AND E OF FRONT AND W OF SFC TROUGH SHOULD
SUSTAIN RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS. THIS REGIME MAY YIELD ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL SRH TO SUPPORT ROTATION FOR ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CELLS
THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE DEVIANTLY NWWD -- RIGHTWARD OF MEAN FLOW
VECTOR.

.EDWARDS.. 09/09/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...

34667664 34947640 35407612 35687572 35837552 35677545
35427547 35207551 35217561 35117590 34967611 34537650
34667659

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 090550
SWODY2
SPC AC 090549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND ERN CANADA AND THE NERN CONUS. MEANWHILE --
WEAK/NONDESCRIPT FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE
T.S. GABRIELLE REMAINS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN
HALF OF THE CONUS -- NEAR AND S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT...GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUGGEST LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.GOSS.. 09/09/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090531
SWODY1
SPC AC 090529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE SRN U.S. WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTING ALONG
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST. WRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND ROCKIES...WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO LIFT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SRN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE...NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

A WEAKER DISTURBANCE...EMBEDDED WITHIN WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE
NRN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE
MIDWEST/UPPER OH VALLEY EARLY TODAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION/FRONTAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
IMPULSE WILL TRAVEL ALONG STALLED FRONT FROM OH TO NY TODAY...AND
THEN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP AND STEER T.S. GABRIELLE CIRCULATION BACK TO THE WRN
ATLANTIC AFTER CENTER OF THE TC CLIPS NC OUTER BANKS TODAY. REFER TO
LATEST TPC GUIDANCE REGARDING TRACK/INTENSITY OF GABRIELLE.

..PA/NY...
AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THESE
AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER FORCING WITH THE WAVE/LOW AND
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD SPUR A FEW STRONG STORMS GIVEN WEAK CAP AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES MAY BE OFFSET BY
MODERATE DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW/SHEAR AND ORGANIZING INFLUENCE OF THE
SURFACE WAVE/LOW AND FRONT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY INCREASE IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

..ERN NC...
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE CENTER
OF T.S. GABRIELLE AS STORM MAKES LANDFALL OVER ERN NC. THIS THREAT
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NC BASED ON LATEST TPC TRACK
FORECAST. HOWEVER...A MORE INLAND TRACK WOULD BRING ISOLATED/WEAK
TORNADO POTENTIAL WWD. REFER TO LATEST TPC AND LOCAL NWS OFFICE
INFORMATION REGARDING T.S. GABRIELLE.

..NORTH TX ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TO NRN MS/WRN TN...
AXIS OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ON THE SRN EDGE OF
DEEP-LAYER CLOUD FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE AREAS. GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
SHEAR WITHIN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESTRICT GREATER STORM
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...A COUPLE WET MICROBURST WIND REPORTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS WWD TO THE ROCKIES...
ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUX AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF REINFORCING
FRONTAL SURGE...COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF WEST TX WWD OVER MUCH OF NM THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO LIE BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW
WITHIN WRN PERIPHERY OF SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...TERRAIN INFLUENCES...AND STORM MERGERS/INTERACTIONS
COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF WIND AND/OR HAIL REPORTS BUT MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.

FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS PARTS OF CO/WY...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT INCREASINGLY SHEARED REGIME.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THIS AREA WILL STRENGTHEN AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS MAY SUSTAIN A
FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED HAIL/WIND
EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

.CARBIN/JEWELL.. 09/09/2007

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KIWX [090504]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 090504
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
103 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0102 AM FLASH FLOOD THREE RIVERS 41.94N 85.63W
09/09/2007 ST. JOSEPH MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

CITY WORKERS BEING DEPLOYED TO BARRICADE...CLOSE
SEVERAL ROADS DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

$$

JT

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KLSX [090452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 090452
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1152 PM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 PM FLOOD 1 N LESTERVILLE 37.47N 90.83W
09/08/2007 REYNOLDS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT EVACUATED TWIN LANDINGS CAMPING PARK DUE
TO OVER A FOOT OF WATER ON THE ROADS AND THREAT OF MORE
HEAVY RAIN.

0900 PM FLOOD 2 N GLOVER 37.52N 90.69W
09/08/2007 IRON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER THE HIGHWAY ON HIGHWAY 21

0905 PM FLOOD LESTERVILLE 37.46N 90.83W
09/08/2007 REYNOLDS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 21 ROOTS WERE WEAKED BY HEAVY RAIN

1130 PM FLASH FLOOD FREDERICKTOWN 37.56N 90.30W
09/08/2007 MADISON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO LOW WATER BRIDGES IN TOWN WERE FLOODED AND THE ROADS
CLOSED.

&&

$$

JPEDIGO

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KCLE [090414]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 090414
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1213 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM FLOOD 4 SSW CONNEAUT LAKE 41.55N 80.34W
09/08/2007 CRAWFORD PA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER REPORTED ON STATE ROUTE 18 IN ADAMSVILLE.
DEPTH OF WATER OVER ROAD WAS NOT REPORTED.

0830 PM FLOOD MEADVILLE 41.65N 80.15W
09/08/2007 CRAWFORD PA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER REPORTED ON SOUTH MAIN STREET. DEPTH OF HIGH
WATER WAS NOT REPORTED.

0830 PM FLOOD TOWNVILLE 41.68N 79.88W
09/08/2007 CRAWFORD PA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER REPORTED ON STATE ROUTE 408. DEPTH OF HIGH
WATER WAS NOT REPORTED.

0850 PM FLOOD 10 W KINSMAN 41.45N 80.79W
09/08/2007 TRUMBULL OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

BASEMENT FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN GREENE TOWNSHIP. HIGH
WATER WAS REPORTED ON ROADS IN THE TOWNSHIP TO DEPTHS
THAT WERE APPROACHING IMPASSABLE CONDITIONS.

0857 PM FLOOD MEADVILLE 41.65N 80.15W
09/08/2007 CRAWFORD PA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HIGH WATER ON ROADS WAS REPORTED ON VARIOUS ROADS
THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY. NO ROADS WERE REPORTED CLOSED DUE
TO HIGH WATER.

0900 PM FLOOD 5 W KINSMAN 41.45N 80.70W
09/08/2007 TRUMBULL OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON STATE ROUTE 193 THROUGH GUSTAVUS
TOWNSHIP.

0900 PM FLOOD KINSMAN 41.45N 80.60W
09/08/2007 TRUMBULL OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER WAS REPORTED ON NUMEROUS ROADS. DEPTH OF HIGH
WATER WAS NOT REPORTED.

0900 PM FLOOD 10 W KINSMAN 41.45N 80.79W
09/08/2007 TRUMBULL OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER WAS REPORTED ON STATE ROUTE 87 IN GREENE
TOWNSHIP. DEPTH OF HIGH WATER WAS NOT REPORTED.

&&

$$

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