SWODY2
SPC AC 091730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. 12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH
EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...BY CUTTING OFF A LOW ACROSS ERN UT/CO DAY
2...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS CURRENT NRN
ROCKIES TROUGH. IN THE EAST...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A LEADING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD THROUGH LOWER MS
VALLEY TO TX. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONTAL SURGE IS EXPECTED
SWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS EWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY DURING DAY 2...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND/OR INSTABILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
..CENTRAL/ERN NM...
DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...A FEW
TSTMS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW
BENEATH WLY FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY
ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ERN NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUICKLY UNDERCUT AS
THIS BOUNDARY SURGES SWD. THE PRESENCE OF A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING DAY 1 IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL
COLD FRONT LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM CHANCES
ON DAY 2. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME SURFACE HEATING
RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF ERN NM ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY WITH
PROBABILITY FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
.PETERS.. 09/09/2007
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