Thursday, November 26, 2009

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 270442
SWODY3
SPC AC 270441

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOSED LOW DIGGING SEWD OVER SRN CA ON DAY 2 WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY ESEWD OVER NW MEXICO ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT AND POTENTIALLY
WEAK INSTABILITY NE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF AZ AND SW NM. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION COULD ALSO SPREAD NEWD INTO SW TX IN ADVANCE OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

FARTHER E...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND SE OF A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED BY LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN A BAND FROM E TX NEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH...AND THE
BAND WILL PROGRESS SEWD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS COULD MATERIALIZE WITH STORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE BAND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND RELATIVELY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT
IS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT THE ADDITION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME.

..THOMPSON.. 11/27/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 270423
SWODY2
SPC AC 270422

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFF THE ORE/NRN CA COASTS WILL DIG SEWD OVER
SRN CA TOMORROW INTO EARLY SATURDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA AND
AZ/NM. THE SPECIFIC THUNDERSTORM THREATS SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN TWO
AREAS...THE SRN CA COAST NEAR THE COLD CORE LOW...AND THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS AZ BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN WRN NM.

...SWRN STATES...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE SRN CA COAST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB -25 C
WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 100-300 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE IMMEDIATE OFFSHORE WATERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL LOW REACHES NRN BAJA
LATE IN THE PERIOD. FARTHER E...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY ACROSS AZ/WRN NM WHERE MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL
OCCUR FROM THE S...IN CONJUNCTION WITH COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE NET RESULT WILL BE AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN A LOOSE COMMA CONFIGURATION WITH THE BAND OF ASCENT TO THE E/NE
OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.

...ELSEWHERE...
A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL RETURN NWD TO S AND E TX FROM
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ANY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL BEYOND DAY 2 AS A RESULT
OF A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER NW MEXICO EJECT ENEWD
OVER THE NW GULF COAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..THOMPSON.. 11/27/2009

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KMFR [270328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 270328
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
728 PM PST THU NOV 26 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0726 PM HEAVY RAIN SSW PORT ORFORD 42.75N 124.50W
11/26/2009 M1.53 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

AMOUNT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.


&&

$$

DW

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KRAH [270204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 270204
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
904 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM HAIL 2 SSE ASHEBORO 35.69N 79.80W
11/26/2009 M0.25 INCH RANDOLPH NC PUBLIC


&&

$$

RELLIS

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KMFR [270130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 270130
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
530 PM PST THU NOV 26 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0528 PM HEAVY RAIN BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
11/26/2009 E0.99 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

90 MINUTE RAINFALL FROM 4 PM TO 530 PM


&&

$$

BUNNAG

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KRAH [270030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 270030
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0727 PM HAIL ASHEBORO 35.72N 79.81W
11/26/2009 M0.25 INCH RANDOLPH NC TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZED HAIL... PORTIONS OF THE GROUND COVERED.


&&

$$

PBADGETT

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KRAH [270026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 270026
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
725 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM HAIL 10 SW ASHEBORO 35.62N 79.94W
11/26/2009 E0.25 INCH RANDOLPH NC TRAINED SPOTTER

LOTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING.


&&

$$

PBADGETT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270020
SWODY1
SPC AC 270019

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST...MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE NATION...WITH LOW OR NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
AN AREA OF FOCUSED STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...ACCOMPANYING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENT
STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES FOR LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR/NORTH OF CHARLOTTE NC EARLIER THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SEEMS TO
HAVE WANED SOME AS FORCING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...AS STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING /500 MB COLD CORE
OF -30C/ AND LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A SOUTHWESTERLY 80-90 KT 500
MB JET STREAK SPREAD TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA...LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
INCREASING STORMS DURING THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME. A SMALL LOW TOPPED
STORM CLUSTER COULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE BEFORE SPREADING
OFFSHORE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.


...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE
NORTH OF THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE CYCLONE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH OR OVERSPREAD PARTS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD 09-12Z...BUT HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF STORMS STILL
SEEMS TO EXIST SOUTH/EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

..KERR.. 11/27/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261943
SWODY1
SPC AC 261942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES FOR THE 20Z OUTLOOK.

..BROYLES.. 11/26/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG SWD OFF THE COAST OF SRN FL
BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE FAVORABLY MOIST 12Z RAOBS AT MFL AND
EYW...SUBSIDENT LARGE SCALE REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN MID LEVEL
INVERSION...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
FL. ELSEWHERE...STRONG UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS
FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND IN
RESPONSE...FOCUSING MODERATE WAA REGIME OVER THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST ELEVATED CAPE VALUES /AOB
200 J PER KG/...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 261730
SWODY2
SPC AC 261728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TWO AREAS ACROSS THE CONUS DURING
THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE FROM THE COAST OF MA NWD TO THE
COAST OF ME ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT IN THE CORE OF A
DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE SECOND WILL BE ALONG THE COAST OF
CNTRL AND NRN CA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES SSEWD.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/26/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261611
SWODY1
SPC AC 261609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG SWD OFF THE COAST OF SRN FL
BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE FAVORABLY MOIST 12Z RAOBS AT MFL AND
EYW...SUBSIDENT LARGE SCALE REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN MID LEVEL
INVERSION...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
FL. ELSEWHERE...STRONG UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS
FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND IN
RESPONSE...FOCUSING MODERATE WAA REGIME OVER THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST ELEVATED CAPE VALUES /AOB
200 J PER KG/...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.

..GARNER/HALES.. 11/26/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261249
SWODY1
SPC AC 261248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH
FRI. VORT MAX NOW IN SRN MO WILL CONTINUE ESE TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS EVE...BEFORE CONTINUING E TO THE NC CST EARLY FRI.
THIS WILL DEEPEN EXISTING OH VLY TROUGH AS BROAD UPSTREAM RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE RCKYS TO THE PLNS.

AT LWR LVLS...EXISTING SFC LOW E OF NC SHOULD MOVE NNE TO OFF THE MA
CST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A NEW LOW FORMS E OF HATTERAS IN
RESPONSE TO UPR VORT APPROACHING FROM MO. WEAK COLD FRONT NOW OVER
S FL SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY SEWD AS STRONGER FRONT TIED TO
MO VORT ACCELERATES SE INTO NRN FL...AND OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST.

...S FL AND CAPE COD/WRN ATLANTIC...
AHEAD OF AFTN FRONTAL PASSAGE...MODEST DESTABILIZATION MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TSTMS OVER FAR S FL AND OVER THE ADJACENT CSTL
WATERS/KEYS. GREATER STORM COVERAGE WILL EXIST FARTHER E INTO THE
BAHAMAS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD /AFTER 06-09Z/ OTHER STORMS MAY FORM OFF THE NJ
CST NE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER THE ADJACENT CSTL WATERS...AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN REGION OF STRONG ASCENT/MOISTENING
DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/26/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260941
SWOD48
SPC AC 260940

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
CHALLENGES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. IN FACT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SLOW THE EWD EJECTION OF THE SRN BRANCH UPR LOW. AS A
RESULT...THE NRN STREAM COUNTERPART WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD INTO
THE NERN QUARTER OF THE NATION BY EARLY/MID-WEEK...FORCING A CDFNT
SEWD TO THE MID-ATLC CST...SERN STATES AND SWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO BY NEXT TUESDAY 01 DEC. EVENTUALLY...THE UPR LOW WILL EJECT
ENE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AND INTO THE LWR MS/TN VLYS AS THE NEXT NRN
STREAM IMPULSE DROPS SEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLNS...LIKELY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ADVECT
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE NWD WITH THE OLDER BAROCLINIC
ZONE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GULF BASIN...REDEVELOPING TOWARD THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF CSTL LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND EVENTUAL
MAGNITUDE OF THE UPR TROUGH...A SFC LOW WILL PROBABLY FORM ALONG
THIS WRMFNT AND COULD DEVELOP INLAND OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CSTL
STATES IN THE DAY 7-8 TIME FRAME. THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY BASED ON THE CONTINUED MODEL RUN-TO-RUN SLOWING OF THE
UPR SYSTEM AND THE QUALITY OF THE EXPECTED MOISTURE RETURN.
THUS...A HIGHER-END SVR TSTM RISK IS NOT JUSTIFIED ATTM.

..RACY.. 11/26/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 260720
SWODY3
SPC AC 260718

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...SYNOPSIS/FCST...
POSITIVE-TILT LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A SPLIT CHARACTERISTIC WITH THE NRN WAVE CONTINUING EWD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPR GRTLKS. STRONGER SRN BRANCH WILL CONTINUE
DIGGING INTO NRN BAJA/NWRN SONORA ON SATURDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER
IMPULSE MIGRATING EWD THROUGH THE TN VLY/GULF CST REGION.

TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...GRT BASIN AND DESERT SW ON SATURDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL
EXIST WITHIN LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A 130 KT H25 JET FROM PARTS OF SRN
CA ENE INTO AZ FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH LLVL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...SUFFICIENT FORCING
AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTENING OF THE H7-H5 LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
COUPLE HUNDRED J PER KG OF MUCAPE AND THE POTENTIAL RISK FOR WDLY
SCTD TSTMS. SOME THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SRN/ERN AZ. DESPITE INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR...LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SVR TSTM PROBABILITIES LOW.

..RACY.. 11/26/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260542
SWODY2
SPC AC 260541

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPR LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL MIGRATE ENE
INTO THE LWR GRTLKS BY EARLY FRIDAY...THEN TURN ESE ACROSS SRN NEW
ENG/NRN MID-ATLC CSTL STATES BY EARLY SATURDAY. ASSOCD TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. UPSTREAM...AN UPR IMPULSE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE WA CST WILL CONTINUE EWD...WITH
SPLITTING FLOW REGIME EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG JET WILL DIG
SEWD AND CLOSE INTO A LOW OVER SRN CA BY 12Z SATURDAY. NRN STREAM
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE EWD TO THE NRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...TO THE
S...A WEAK SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLNS
AHEAD OF THE CA TROUGH.

...CSTL MA/GULF OF MAINE...
UPR TROUGH WILL ACHIEVE A STRONG NEGATIVE-TILT OFF THE MD/NJ CSTS
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE PV-ANOMALY MOVING NEAR/JUST E OF LONG
ISLAND/SERN MA AND THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY AFTN. FCST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT A NARROW SLIVER OF MUCAPE WHERE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL
EXCEED 7 DEG C PER KM. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A BURST OF
LIGHTNING SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER
PARTS OF SERN MA AND THE GULF OF MAINE. NO SVR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.


...CSTL CNTRL CA...
UPR TROUGH WILL LIKELY CLOSE INTO A LOW AS IT APCHS THE KSFO REGION
FRIDAY AFTN. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COINCIDENT WITH MOISTENING
ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG UVV MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW TSTMS...BOTH
CONTAINED WITHIN THE ASSOCD FRONTAL BAND AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS.

..RACY.. 11/26/2009

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