Thursday, November 26, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261249
SWODY1
SPC AC 261248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH
FRI. VORT MAX NOW IN SRN MO WILL CONTINUE ESE TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS EVE...BEFORE CONTINUING E TO THE NC CST EARLY FRI.
THIS WILL DEEPEN EXISTING OH VLY TROUGH AS BROAD UPSTREAM RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE RCKYS TO THE PLNS.

AT LWR LVLS...EXISTING SFC LOW E OF NC SHOULD MOVE NNE TO OFF THE MA
CST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A NEW LOW FORMS E OF HATTERAS IN
RESPONSE TO UPR VORT APPROACHING FROM MO. WEAK COLD FRONT NOW OVER
S FL SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY SEWD AS STRONGER FRONT TIED TO
MO VORT ACCELERATES SE INTO NRN FL...AND OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST.

...S FL AND CAPE COD/WRN ATLANTIC...
AHEAD OF AFTN FRONTAL PASSAGE...MODEST DESTABILIZATION MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TSTMS OVER FAR S FL AND OVER THE ADJACENT CSTL
WATERS/KEYS. GREATER STORM COVERAGE WILL EXIST FARTHER E INTO THE
BAHAMAS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD /AFTER 06-09Z/ OTHER STORMS MAY FORM OFF THE NJ
CST NE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER THE ADJACENT CSTL WATERS...AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN REGION OF STRONG ASCENT/MOISTENING
DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/26/2009

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