Friday, May 22, 2009

KREV [230351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KREV 230351
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
846 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 S GARDNERVILLE 38.88N 119.74W
05/22/2009 M0.50 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN REPORTED UNKNOWN TIME FRAME. TOTAL 0.50 WITH

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED. RUNNING WATER ON SIDES OF STREET.

0555 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW GARDNERVILLE 38.90N 119.77W
05/22/2009 M0.15 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH PEA SIZE HAIL. 0.15 FELL IN
15 MINUTES.

0605 PM HAIL 4 SSW GARDNERVILLE 38.90N 119.77W
05/22/2009 E0.25 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN WITH LARGE PEA SIZE HAIL.

0607 PM HAIL 3 SSW GARDNERVILLE 38.90N 119.75W
05/22/2009 E1.00 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN REPORTED WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

0633 PM HEAVY RAIN GARDNERVILLE 38.94N 119.74W
05/22/2009 M0.68 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER IN GARDNERVILLE AT AN ELEVATION
OF 4877 FT REPORTED 0.68 INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN 600 PM PDT
AND 630 PM PDT.

0807 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 E VIRGINIA CITY 39.30N 119.54W
05/22/2009 M0.50 INCH LYON NV TRAINED SPOTTER

HALF INCH OF RAIN IN ROUGHLY 45 MINUTES FROM PASSING
THUNDERSTORM. SHORTLY AFTER 700 PM ONE LARGE LIGHTNING
SRIKE KNOCKED THE POWER OUT.


&&

$$

CJORDAN

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KFGZ [230258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 230258
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
757 PM MST FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0624 PM FLOOD 6 S LEUPP 35.20N 110.96W
05/22/2009 COCONINO AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

BETWEEN 6 TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF LEUPP SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY
99 FLOODED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.

0545 PM FLOOD 7 NW ROUGH ROCK 36.48N 109.96W
05/22/2009 APACHE AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

HEAVY RAIN CAUSED FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF ROUTE 59
ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROUGH ROCK.


&&

$$

TC

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KCYS [230141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 230141
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
741 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HEAVY RAIN 10 SW CHUGWATER 41.65N 104.96W
05/22/2009 M1.70 INCH PLATTE WY PUBLIC


&&

$$

JLH

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KCYS [230120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 230120
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
719 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM HAIL CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
05/22/2009 E0.25 INCH LARAMIE WY OFFICIAL NWS OBS


&&

$$

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KREV [230109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 230109
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
609 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 S GARDNERVILLE 38.88N 119.74W
05/22/2009 M0.50 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN REPORTED UNKNOWN TIME FRAME. TOTAL 0.50 WITH

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED. RUNNING WATER ON SIDES OF STREET.

0555 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW GARDNERVILLE 38.90N 119.77W
05/22/2009 M0.15 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH PEA SIZE HAIL. 0.15 FELL IN
15 MINUTES.

0605 PM HAIL 4 SSW GARDNERVILLE 38.90N 119.77W
05/22/2009 E0.25 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN WITH LARGE PEA SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

RCRUZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230054
SWODY1
SPC AC 230051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY NRN STREAM FLOW BELT
ALOFT...ALONG CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE BROAD/DIFFUSE UPPER CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH OF SWRN CONUS. DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE
OVER NERN GULF IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING NWD TO NWWD...CENTER OF
WHICH SHOULD APPROACH GULF COAST BETWEEN SERN LA AND WRN FL
PANHANDLE AROUND END OF PERIOD. REF NHC TROPICAL OUTLOOK UNDER WMO
HEADER ABNT20 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL FCST REASONING ON THIS SYSTEM.

AT SFC...SERIES OF SMALL LOWS IS EVIDENT JUST E OF ROCKIES BETWEEN
SERN WY AND NERN NM...WITH SOME CONSOLIDATION OF BETTER DEFINED LOW
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL/ERN CO OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED AT
23Z FROM NWRN MN AND SERN ND SWWD ACROSS SWRN SD AND SERN WY --
SHOULD MOVE SEWD OVER MN AND MOST OF REMAINDER OF SD...SETTLING SWD
SLOWLY ACROSS WRN NEB. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED GENERALLY
E-W ACROSS NEB SANDHILLS TO CENTRAL IA.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
S-CENTRAL/SERN WY...NWRN CO TO N-CENTRAL NEB...NEAR FRONTAL ZONES
AND ON SRN FRINGE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL WLYS CONTRIBUTING TO 25-35 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. MRGL SVR HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH A COUPLE
TSTMS IN THIS REGIME. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF ENHANCED ORGANIZATION
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL STILL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGEST CELLS...ESPECIALLY
INVOF BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 856 FOR
MORE NEAR-TERM DETAILS. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IS FCST TO
DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 04Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES...FROM
COMBINATION OF SFC DIABATIC COOLING AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

...GULF COAST...AL AND PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE...
TIME SERIES OF FCST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS IN 0-3 KM
LAYER REASONABLY INDICATE THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE SFC WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS INNER NERN SECTOR OF DEEP-LAYER LOW -- NOW WELL
OFFSHORE -- MOVES TOWARD COAST...THEREBY ENLARGING LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR. MODIFIED ETA-KF AND RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC DEW POINTS ABOVE 70 F WITH MID 70S SFC TEMPS
MAY MAINTAIN SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS ALONG COAST.
BRIEF/MRGL TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST WITH ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE TSTMS
MOVING ONSHORE...HOWEVER POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW AND CONDITIONAL
FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. WEAK INSTABILITY AND MOSTLY
DISORGANIZED/MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODES WILL BE LIMITING
FACTORS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2009

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KCYS [230053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 230053
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
653 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HAIL 9 S LUSK 42.63N 104.45W
05/22/2009 E1.00 INCH NIOBRARA WY STORM CHASER


&&

$$

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KCYS [230032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 230032
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
632 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM HAIL LUSK 42.76N 104.45W
05/22/2009 E1.00 INCH NIOBRARA WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

3/4 TO 1 INCH HAIL IN TOWN ENDED AROUND 610 PM


&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0856

ACUS11 KWNS 230030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230029
NEZ000-WYZ000-230230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY / NEB PNHDL INTO N-CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 230029Z - 230230Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. A WW
WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

SPORADIC TSTM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NIOBRARA COUNTY SWD INTO PLATTE...GOSHEN
AND LARAMIE COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL/SERN WY. ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...BUT CONTINUED SELY/ELY LOW-LEVEL FEED OF
LOWER/MID 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BENEATH ERN EXTENSION OF
EML/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
BRIEFLY STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL. CURRENT CYS VWP AND
MEDICINE BOW WY PROFILER INDICATE WEAK WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE LOW
TO MID-TROPOSPHERE WITH STORM MOTIONS LARGELY GOVERNED BY
PROPAGATION ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

STORMS MAY TEND TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 03-04Z EWD THROUGH
THE NEB PNHDL INTO N-CNTRL NEB AS STRENGTHENING LLJ ENHANCES
CONVERGENCE ALONG SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CORES...AS WILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO
TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING TSTM ACTIVITY.

..MEAD.. 05/23/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

LAT...LON 41770521 42500461 42850317 42930186 42670087 42060060
41610099 41190311 41140470 41770521

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KCYS [230009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 230009
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
609 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0604 PM HAIL LUSK 42.76N 104.45W
05/22/2009 E1.00 INCH NIOBRARA WY STORM CHASER


&&

$$

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KCYS [230000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 230000
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL LUSK 42.76N 104.45W
05/22/2009 E0.75 INCH NIOBRARA WY PUBLIC


&&

$$

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KCYS [222307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 222307
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
507 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL 1 S SHIRLEY BASIN 42.34N 106.21W
05/22/2009 M0.75 INCH CARBON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

2.5 INCHES ON GROUND 1 MI. SOUTH OF HOUSE


&&

$$

JHOUSE

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KFGZ [222241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 222241
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
339 PM MST FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM FLASH FLOOD PAGE 36.90N 111.46W
05/22/2009 COCONINO AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FALLING BETWEEN 900 AND 1000 AM MST
CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF
PAGE. SEVERAL ROADS TEMPORARY CLOSED...WITH STREET
FLOODING IN MUCH OF THE CITY.


&&

$$

BAK

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KJAN [222205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 222205
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
505 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 E PHILADELPHIA 32.77N 89.01W
05/22/2009 NESHOBA MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE BARN AND TWO SHEDS DESTROYED. ONE TREE ALSO DOWNED.
POSSIBLE TORNADO.


&&

$$

BRYANT

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KMAF [222203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 222203
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
503 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM HEAVY RAIN FORT DAVIS 30.59N 103.90W
05/22/2009 M2.38 INCH JEFF DAVIS TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

MEASURED BY THE FORT DAVIS FIRE DEPT.


&&

$$

32

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KPUB [222200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 222200
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
400 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.79N 104.87W
05/22/2009 EL PASO CO AMATEUR RADIO

MUD SLIDES DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AT SEVEN FALLS.

0345 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.80N 104.86W
05/22/2009 EL PASO CO AMATEUR RADIO

2.5 FEET OF WATER ON MESA ROAD. WATER FLOWING ALONG MESA
ROAD.


&&

$$

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KMAF [222159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 222159
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
459 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM FLASH FLOOD FORT DAVIS 30.59N 103.90W
05/22/2009 JEFF DAVIS TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SEVERAL ROADS CLOSURES DUE TO FLASH FLOODING


&&

$$

32

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KJAX [222124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 222124
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
523 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1219 PM FLOOD 5 SW BUNNELL 29.41N 81.31W
05/22/2009 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED MASSIVE FLOODING OF
AGRICULTURAL PROPERTY ACROSS WESTERN FLAGLER COUNTY
INCLUDING DEANVILLE, ANDULUSIA, AND CODYS CORNER. MANY
FIELDS RESEMBLE LAKES. MANY SIDE ROADS ARE REPORTED
UNDERWATER INCLUDING OTIS STONE HUNTER ROAD, HARDGROVE
GRADE.


&&

$$

PP

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KJAX [222102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 222102
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
501 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1219 PM FLOOD 4 WSW BUNNELL 29.44N 81.32W
05/22/2009 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED EXTENSIVE FLOODING AT
DAYTONA NORTH.SOME ROADS HAVE OVER THREE FEET OF STANDING
WATER. MANY ROADS ARE CLOSED. SEVERAL RESIDENTS RESCUED
FROM FLOODED HOMES.


&&

$$

PP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221922
SWODY1
SPC AC 221919

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

HAVE GREATLY EXPANDED THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF TX BASED ON
WWD MOISTURE SURGE AND DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED
ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND THIS AREA WILL BE ADDED TO THUNDER AS WELL.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WELL DEFINED UPPER
VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHEARING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA INTO NWRN
ONTARIO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING SWWD ALONG TRAILING COLD
FRONT INTO NWRN MN/NERN ND AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
NRN MN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER WHERE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
GREATER.

OTHERWISE...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN WY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN
ALONG FAVORED ZONE OF CONVERGENCE.

..DARROW.. 05/22/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009/

ANOTHER QUIET CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UNITED STATES AS STRONG WESTERLIES ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF STATES...AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONLY RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH BROAD UPPER LOW OFF
IN THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE
RATES WILL COMBINE WITH MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPRESS
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

...NEB/SD/WY...
WEAK EASTERLY/UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NEB AND EASTERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO
TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY...WHERE CONCENSUS OF MESOSCALE AND OPERATIONAL
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED STORMS. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN NEB DURING THE EVENING. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SLOW MOVING MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL.

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KCHS [221915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 221915
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
315 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM RIP CURRENTS TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
05/22/2009 CHATHAM GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

5 RIP CURRENTS EXTENDING 150 FEET OUT INTO THE OCEAN
SPOTTED BY LIFEGUARDS.

0255 PM HIGH SURF TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
05/22/2009 CHATHAM GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

6 FOOT BREAKERS REPORTED IN THE SURF ZONE BY LIFEGUARDS.


&&

$$

VB

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KTBW [221830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 221830
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM TORNADO 2 WSW CLEARWATER 27.95N 82.79W
05/22/2009 PINELLAS FL PUBLIC

RECEIVED PICTURE OF TORNADO TAKEN BY PUBLIC. NO DAMAGE
REPORTED AT THIS TIME. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.


&&

$$

JILLSON

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 221721
SWODY2
SPC AC 221719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL MOISTENING ACROSS THE
CONUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK FOR THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS GRADUAL
MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANSION OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE U.S. FROM THE INTERIOR WEST...ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY...NOT TO MENTION THE WIDESPREAD
STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH NWD
MOVING UPPER LOW.

...NRN ROCKIES...

UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. EVEN
SO...MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH H5
FLOW EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 20-30KT. LATEST THINKING IS
PW/S WILL APPROACH .75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT INTO ID BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST INSTABILITY AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST STRONG HEATING WILL ENHANCE BUOYANCY AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM ID INTO SWRN MT
ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT 24/02Z SOUNDING AT
BIL APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING INTO THE WEST AT MID LEVELS. ANY STORMS THAT
EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION MAY ROTATE WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE
PROSPECT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS TIME SHEAR
PROFILES AND MOISTURE APPEAR A BIT TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
RISK.

...CNTRL PLAINS...

STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL ALLOW SFC PARCELS TO
REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER INTO
NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE SOMEWHAT MODEST...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS OR PERHAPS
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS LLJ IMPINGES ON FRONTAL ZONE.


...NY/PA...

STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL GLANCE UPSTATE NY AS PRIMARY SPEED MAX
ROTATES ACROSS QUEBEC SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS PA/NY IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL
DEVELOP BY 18Z FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAKLY
CONVERGENT SFC BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN ORIENTED FROM CNTRL
NY...SWWD INTO WRN PA UNTIL LATE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG BUT WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS SUGGEST
ANY STORMS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION WILL PROPAGATE SEWD AT
ROUGHLY 20-25KT. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.

...GULF STATES...

PERSISTENT...BUT SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NWD ALONG
THE CNTRL GULF COAST WITH MODEST LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
AL/MS. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ROTATION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH ANY PERSISTENT
UPDRAFT...HOWEVER VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND EXTREMELY LIMITED
BUOYANCY DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

..DARROW.. 05/22/2009

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KMFL [221656]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 221656
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1256 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM TSTM WND GST 6 E BUCKHEAD RIDGE 27.14N 80.79W
05/22/2009 M39.00 MPH AMZ610 FL MESONET

NORTH TOWER L001 MEASURED 39 MPH WIND GUST AT 1215 EDT.

1230 PM TSTM WND GST 12 SE BRIGHTON SEMINOLE 26.95N 80.94W
05/22/2009 M46.00 MPH AMZ610 FL MESONET

WEST TOWER L005 MEASURED 46 MPH WIND GUST AT 1230 EDT.

1230 PM TSTM WND GST 6 E BUCKHEAD RIDGE 27.14N 80.79W
05/22/2009 M48.00 MPH AMZ610 FL MESONET

NORTH TOWER L001 MEASURED 48 MPH WIND GUST AT 1230 EDT.


&&

$$

RIVERA

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KJAX [221645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 221645
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1245 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1242 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW BUNNELL 29.49N 81.28W
05/22/2009 M26.70 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A STORM RAINFALL TOTAL
OF 26.70 INCHES AT THE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS SINCE MAY 17TH.

&&

$$

PP

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KJAX [221640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 221640
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1240 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1238 PM HEAVY RAIN BUNNELL 29.47N 81.26W
05/22/2009 M28.00 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A STORM RAINFALL TOTAL
OF 28 INCHES IN DOWNTOWN BUNNELL SINCE MAY 17TH.


&&

$$

PP

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0855

ACUS11 KWNS 221628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221627
FLZ000-221830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 221627Z - 221830Z

RAINBAND ATTENDANT TO THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NWD
THROUGH EARLY AFTN ACROSS SRN/CNTRL FL. HEAVIEST AXIS OF RNFL WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE FROM THE MIAMI-DADE REGION NWD THROUGH ERN BROWARD
COUNTY...AND FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE NWWD INTO POLK COUNTY. HOURLY
RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED 1-3 INCHES.

VORTICITY SPOKE ROTATING AROUND DEEP LAYER CYCLONE CENTERED 260
MILES W OF KTPA WILL MOVE NWD THROUGH CNTRL FL THIS AFTN. MODEST
LLVL CONVERGENCE BENEATH THIS BAND AND WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AND VERY
MOIST AIR MASS /MLCAPES 1500-2000 J PER KG AND PWATS 1.5-1.8 INCHES/
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS. PRIMARY BAND OF STORMS WILL
TRANSLATE NWD AT 10-15 KTS WITH LEADING CONVECTION MERGING AND
BOOSTING RNFL RATES. SRN PORTIONS OF THE LINE WILL BE ORIENTED SUCH
THAT TRAINING RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR
ALONG THE SERN CST. IN ADDITION TO THE HVY RNFL THREAT...GUSTY
WINDS TO 30-40 KTS WILL BE LIKELY AS STRONGER CORES COLLAPSE.

..RACY.. 05/22/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 25668013 25598042 26748096 27228137 27848213 28418213
28528159 28288106 27798067 27148029 25668013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221617
SWODY1
SPC AC 221614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ANOTHER QUIET CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UNITED STATES AS STRONG WESTERLIES ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF STATES...AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONLY RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH BROAD UPPER LOW OFF
IN THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE
RATES WILL COMBINE WITH MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPRESS
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

...NEB/SD/WY...
WEAK EASTERLY/UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NEB AND EASTERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO
TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY...WHERE CONCENSUS OF MESOSCALE AND OPERATIONAL
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED STORMS. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN NEB DURING THE EVENING. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SLOW MOVING MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 05/22/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221226
SWODY1
SPC AC 221223

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BENIGN PATTERN IN TERMS OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CONUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALOFT...THE
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES IS CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK MID-UPPER FLOW OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE...THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY MOISTURE PLUMES AND ASSOCIATED
REGIONS OF DEEP CONVECTION -- ONE ACROSS FL AND THE NE GULF COAST
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE S OF THE FL PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE N/NE OF A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
AZ/MEXICO BORDER. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER POOR
/ROUGHLY MOIST ADIABATIC/ WITHIN THE MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST-PRODUCING STORMS. ACROSS THE NE GULF
COAST...THE BELT OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE TO
THE NE OF THE GULF LOW. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR AND THE
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE
REMOVED TO THE S OF THIS SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW.

...N CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...
A NARROW ZONE OF OVERLAP BETWEEN THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MID-UPPER
WESTERLIES AND THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ORIGINATING OVER NV/ID MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BLACK HILLS REGION FROM WRN SD INTO NE
WY. HERE...THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S
WITH MID 40S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES
NEAR 500 J/KG...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. THE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND
BUOYANCY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN
THE AREA OF UPSLOPE EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 05/22/2009

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KKEY [220833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 220833
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
433 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0206 AM TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
05/22/2009 M51.00 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUST OF 44 KNOTS...51 MPH...WAS
RECORDED BY THE C-MAN STATION ATOP OF SAND KEY LIGHT...AT
206 AM EDT. THIS GUST OCCURRED DURING A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR...CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS PASSING NEARBY.


&&

$$

COTTRILL

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KPUB [220721]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 220721
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
120 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNE LA VETA 37.60N 104.98W
05/21/2009 M2.20 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN STILL OCCURRING

0455 PM FLOOD 11 N TRINIDAD 37.33N 104.52W
05/21/2009 LAS ANIMAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

I-25 FRONTAGE ROADS FLOODED...LAS ANIMAS COUNTY ROAD 42
FLOODED.


&&

$$

LW

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 220716
SWOD48
SPC AC 220716

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK/NONDESCRIPT UPPER PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ONLY WEAK TROUGHS AT BEST EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS.
THUS...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 05/22/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 220706
SWODY3
SPC AC 220704

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CONUS...WITH STRONGER/MORE-AMPLIFIED FLOW TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
NEW ENGLAND AND NWD INTO CANADA.

WEAK TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE ROCKIES...WHILE A PORTION OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO LOW SHOULD DRIFT NWWD INTO THE S CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER W-E OVER THE OH
VALLEY REGION...WHILE A SECOND/WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE.

WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK LEE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH MODEST DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD SHOULD GENERALLY HINDER APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.

ELSEWHERE...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

..GOSS.. 05/22/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220543
SWODY1
SPC AC 220541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGLY ANOMALOUS...PERSISTENT...NATIONWIDE LACK OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AS UNFAVORABLE
UPPER AIR AND SURFACE PATTERN PERSISTS.

IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...NEARLY ZONAL NRN STREAM FLOW BELT WILL
CONTINUE FROM PAC NW TO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND...PERTURBED MAINLY BY POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER WRN SASK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS NRN ONT THROUGH
END OF PERIOD...ITS SRN FRINGES CROSSING PORTIONS NRN MN. FARTHER
S...DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NWWD
ACROSS NERN GULF TOWARD VICINITY EXTREME SERN LA OR MS COAST.

RATHER MESSY AND NEBULOUS THERMODYNAMIC PATTERN WILL EXIST
TODAY...ONCE AGAIN CHARACTERIZED BY HORIZONTAL DISPLACEMENT OF MOST
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND FLOW ALOFT FROM ROBUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM LOWER MI WSWWD ACROSS SERN IA AND
NWRN MO...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER SERN NEB...AND
N-CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL KS TO SERN CO. THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME
DIFFUSE...SEGMENTS OF WHICH MAY MOVE NWD AND MERGE WITH
SECONDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SWD OVER MN/SD/NRN NEB.

...E-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
AS DEEP-LAYER LOW APCHS COAST LATE IN PERIOD...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
FCST TO INCREASE WITH TIME. HOWEVER...COUNTERBALANCING KINEMATIC
EFFECT WILL BE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THEREFORE OVERALL
DIMINISHING TREND IN SYSTEM-RELATIVE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE...AS
NOTED IN NHC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION UNDER WMO HEADER AXNT 20
KNHC. INSTABILITY ALSO WILL BE QUESTIONABLE...WITH DIABATIC COOLING
TREND INLAND...YET SOME SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS POSSIBLE
ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AMIDST 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. IF
RELATIVELY DISCRETE STORM MODE CAN OCCUR WITHIN STRONGLY CURVED LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST.
ATTM...HOWEVER...THAT THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL TO ASSIGN
PROBABILITIES.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF WRN FRONTAL
SEGMENT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PRODUCING STG
GUSTS. SFC DIABATIC HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOMEWHAT HIGHER SFC
TEMPS THAN FCST BY MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUPPORTING GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS. ATTM IT
APPEARS THAT WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES -- RELATED TO ADVECTION OF
AIR ALOFT FROM CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED...SWRN MONSOONAL TYPE REGIME
-- WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT BUOYANCY EVEN WITH SUCH HEATING. GIVEN
THIS FACTOR...ALONG WITH MRGL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK WINDS
THROUGH DEEP TROPOSPHERE...SVR PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO BE TOO
WEAK/CONDITIONAL TO DRAW 5 PERCENT UNCONDITIONAL AREA ATTM.

..EDWARDS/GRAMS.. 05/22/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 220537
SWODY2
SPC AC 220535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- THE SRN FRINGE OF WHICH WILL AFFECT THE
GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND -- WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN 2/3
OF CANADA...THOUGH A MUCH WEAKER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. A RATHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER
THE WEST...WHILE A BROAD UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.


AT THE SURFACE...A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE GULF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS
RIVER. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES
ONSHORE...AND A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE SRN FRINGE OF THE ERN CANADA
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE TRAILING WSWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

...PA/NY...
WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK/SLOWLY-MOVING
SURFACE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE OH
VALLEY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK...SLIGHTLY-STRONGER
MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS PA -- AND ESPECIALLY NY -- MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOW-END HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL.
ATTM...POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIMITED...AND THUS WILL
NOT INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK.

...MT...
WHILE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MT AND VICINITY THIS
PERIOD...WEAK ELY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY
SUPPORT WEAK ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...AND THUS A LOW-END THREAT FOR
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 05/22/2009

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