Saturday, September 4, 2010

KTFX [050111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 050111
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
710 PM MDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM HAIL 27 ENE BRADY 48.18N 111.30W
09/04/2010 M0.50 INCH LIBERTY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0213 PM HAIL SUN PRAIRIE 47.54N 111.48W
09/04/2010 E0.25 INCH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL FALLING IN SUN PRAIRIE. WIND GUSTS
ESTIMATED AROUND 15 MPH.

0310 PM HAIL FORT BENTON 47.83N 110.65W
09/04/2010 M0.50 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0414 PM TSTM WND GST 8 SW WOLF CREEK 46.92N 112.19W
09/04/2010 M66.00 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

66 MPH WIND GUST AT THE SIEBN FLATS DOT SENSOR.

0430 PM TSTM WND GST 7 NE CRAIG 47.15N 111.86W
09/04/2010 M57.00 MPH CASCADE MT MESONET

57 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEARBORN DOT SENSOR.

0435 PM HAIL 10 W HELENA 46.60N 112.23W
09/04/2010 E0.25 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT NWS EMPLOYEE

PEA SIZE HAIL FALLING ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF HELENA.


&&

$$

DBRITTON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050051
SWODY1
SPC AC 050050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ERN CANADA LOW -- WILL CONTINUE ROTATING
ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECOND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW SEWD PROGRESS ACROSS MT
AND VICINITY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

FARTHER E...A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHILE THE TRAILING END OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION...BUT HERE
TOO...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING.

..GOSS.. 09/05/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1790

ACUS11 KWNS 042311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042310
MTZ000-050115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1790
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN MT.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 042310Z - 050115Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING FOR
ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE OUTLINED BELOW.
MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS...HOWEVER LACK
OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE
SHOULD PRECLUDE NEED FOR WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW BETWEEN JDN-BIL...WITH OCCLUDED FRONT
NEWD BETWEEN GGW-OLF...AND COLD FRONT SWWD BETWEEN BTM-DLN. LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ESEWD ACROSS SERN MT...ROUGHLY ALONG WARM
FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM LOW INTO BLACK HILLS REGION. CROSS
SECTIONS OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES E OF OCCLUDED FRONT AND N OF WARM
FRONT INDICATE DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS SUITABLE FOR
MAINTENANCE OF HAIL AND STG-SVR GUSTS TO SFC...BENEATH ABOUT 100-500
J/KG MLCAPE. THESE DATA ALSO INDICATE SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSE RATES
AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH EWD EXTENT...WHICH ALSO IS EVIDENT IN
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS AND SFC ANALYSIS. THIS RESULTS IN ABSENCE OF
MLCAPE OVER EXTREME ERN MT. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
BUOYANCY WILL SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT ACROSS ERN MT...ACTIVITY WILL ENTER
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS E OF LONGITUDE OF MLS. SOMEWHAT HIGHER
THETAE IS EVIDENT BEHIND COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...WHERE RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFFSETS CAA AND WEAKER DIABATIC HEATING TO YIELD
SOMEWHAT BROADER AREA OF 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS. ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT...HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF
EXPANDING OUTFLOW COVERAGE WITH TIME...AND SFC DIABATIC
COOLING...WILL REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS THIS EVENING AFTER
ABOUT 03Z.

..EDWARDS.. 09/04/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 46841127 47881077 48380903 48230546 47060489 46170567
45980891 46181089 46841127

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KTFX [042307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 042307
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
507 PM MDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL 10 W HELENA 46.60N 112.23W
09/04/2010 E0.25 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT NWS EMPLOYEE

PEA SIZE HAIL FALLING ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF HELENA.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [042258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 042258
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
458 PM MDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM TSTM WND GST 8 SW WOLF CREEK 46.92N 112.19W
09/04/2010 M66 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

66 MPH WIND GUST AT THE SIEBN FLATS DOT SENSOR.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [042252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 042252
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
452 PM MDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM TSTM WND GST 7 NE CRAIG 47.15N 111.86W
09/04/2010 M57 MPH CASCADE MT MESONET

57 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEARBORN DOT SENSOR.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KMSO [042252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KMSO 042252
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
452 PM MDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM TSTM WND DMG MISSOULA 46.87N 113.99W
09/04/2010 MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

ROOF SHINGLES DAMAGED.

0354 PM TSTM WND GST BUTTE 46.00N 112.53W
09/04/2010 M54.00 MPH SILVER BOW MT ASOS


&&

$$

GIBSON

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KMFL [042248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 042248
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
648 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HEAVY RAIN DORAL 25.84N 80.36W
09/04/2010 E2.25 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

2.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR. SOME MINOR STREET
FLOODING.


&&

$$

MBETTWY

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KMSO [042244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 042244
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
444 PM MDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM TSTM WND DMG MISSOULA 46.87N 113.99W
09/04/2010 MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

ROOF SHINGLES DAMAGED.

0354 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BUTTE 46.00N 112.53W
09/04/2010 M54.00 MPH SILVER BOW MT ASOS


&&

$$

GIBSON

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KOTX [042222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 042222
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
322 PM PDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0217 PM DUST STORM 10 S RITZVILLE 46.98N 118.38W
09/04/2010 ADAMS WA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STATE ROUTE 261 FROM RITZVILLE TO NORTH OF WASHTUCNA...
MILEPOST 40 TO 62...CLOSED DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY FROM
BLOWING DUST AND STRONG WINDS.


&&

$$

SBODNAR

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KMQT [042218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 042218
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
618 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NW BIG BAY 46.83N 87.75W
09/03/2010 MARQUETTE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

TIME ESTIMATED. MANY TREES DOWN...WITH SOME UP TO 20
INCHES IN DIAMETER. ALSO NOTICED TREES DOWN IN OTHER
LOCATIONS AROUND BIG BAY.


&&

$$

SRF

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KTFX [042115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 042115
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
314 PM MDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM HAIL FORT BENTON 47.83N 110.65W
09/04/2010 M0.50 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JNS

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KCHS [042050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 042050
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
450 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0428 PM RIP CURRENTS TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
09/04/2010 CHATHAM GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

SEVERAL RIP CURRENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 3 RESCUES.


&&

$$

33

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KTFX [042035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 042035
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
235 PM MDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM HAIL 27 ENE BRADY 48.18N 111.30W
09/04/2010 M0.50 INCH LIBERTY MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JNS

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KTFX [042014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 042014
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
214 PM MDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0213 PM HAIL SUN PRAIRIE 47.54N 111.48W
09/04/2010 E0.25 INCH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL FALLING IN SUN PRAIRIE. WIND GUSTS
ESTIMATED AROUND 15 MPH.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041940
SWODY1
SPC AC 041939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MT...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE TROUGH FROM SRN ID INTO NRN
MT...WITH ANOTHER AXIS FROM NRN MT SWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ENHANCE WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1789.

..JEWELL.. 09/04/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010/

...WRN/CENTRAL MT AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BC/WA WILL AMPLIFY SEWD OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY A
NARROW PLUME OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT...AND
MODIFIED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THESE PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MT AS MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASES.
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST DAMAGING WIND THREAT
IS WEAK INSTABILITY.

...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...
DEEP DRYING IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OVER
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
SLOW-MOVING FRONT ACROSS S TX AND FL...WITHIN THE REMAINING TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1789

ACUS11 KWNS 041911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041911
MTZ000-IDZ000-042015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ID/SWRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 041911Z - 042015Z

ISOLATED THREAT OF DMGG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL ID/SWRN MT. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CU FIELD HAS INCREASED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS DIURNAL HEATING
LEADS TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
STRONG/COLD UPPER TROUGH AND ADEQUATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE
MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW /40 KT/...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERITY OF STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF DMGG WINDS
AS DRY LOW LEVELS/EVAPORATIVE COOLING ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT WINDS.

..HURLBUT.. 09/04/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON 45621223 44741333 44841440 45381505 46031495 46701491
47431427 47901348 48101254 48161148 47621118 46361096
45941144 45621223

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041727
SWODY2
SPC AC 041726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH /WITH -22 C AT 500 MB/ WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN
ROCKIES...EMERGING INTO THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z MON. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SERN MT/ERN WY SWWD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AT 00Z. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH A LOW CENTER ACROSS WRN NEB SUN
AFTERNOON. GIVEN LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OUT OF THE SERN U.S.
HIGH...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FL
PENINSULA WITH A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS AS WELL AS ALONG THE WRN AND
CNTRL GULF COAST WITH ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

...SERN MT...NRN WY...WRN SD...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SUN MORNING ACROSS SRN MT
NEAR A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY OVER SRN MT AND NRN WY...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES ALOFT AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THIS WILL FAVOR AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE INCREASINGLY
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER NERN WY...SERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS
AS PEAK HEATING IS REACHED AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MERGE.

..JEWELL.. 09/04/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041632
SWODY1
SPC AC 041630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN/CENTRAL MT AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BC/WA WILL AMPLIFY SEWD OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY A
NARROW PLUME OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT...AND
MODIFIED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THESE PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MT AS MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASES.
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST DAMAGING WIND THREAT
IS WEAK INSTABILITY.

...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...
DEEP DRYING IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OVER
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
SLOW-MOVING FRONT ACROSS S TX AND FL...WITHIN THE REMAINING TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/04/2010

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KBOX [041624]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBOX 041624
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1223 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM STORM SURGE NEWPORT 41.49N 71.32W
09/03/2010 E0.00 FT NEWPORT RI AMATEUR RADIO

OCEAN DRIVE FROM FORT ADAMS TO BAILY BEACH CLOSED WITH
SEAWATER AND DEBRIS FROM THE SEAWALL OVER THE ROAD.

0405 PM STORM SURGE NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
09/03/2010 E0.00 FT NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

MADAKET BEACH UNDERWATER...SEAWATER INUNDATING LONG POND.


0730 PM TROPICAL STORM ORLEANS 41.79N 70.00W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROUTE 6 FROM EXIT 12 TO THE ROTARY.

1010 PM TROPICAL STORM HARWICH 41.69N 70.07W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 28 NEAR EVELYNS WAY...PARTIALLY
BLOCKING ROUTE 28.

1148 PM TROPICAL STORM CHATHAM 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING TRAINING FIELD ROAD.

1157 PM FLOOD CHATHAM 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TEN INCHES OF WATER FLOODED ORLEANS ROAD.

1234 AM FLOOD HARWICH 41.69N 70.07W
09/04/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

A FOOT OF WATER INUNDATED THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 137
AND PLEASANT BAY ROAD.

0100 AM TROPICAL STORM BOURNE 41.73N 70.61W
09/04/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 28A ON THE BOURNE/FALMOUTH TOWN LINE.

0138 AM TROPICAL STORM 5 SSE BARNSTABLE 41.63N 70.28W
09/04/2010 BARNSTABLE MA MESONET

MESONET AT KALMUS MASS RECORDED WIND GUSTS TO 58 MPH.

0210 AM TROPICAL STORM 13 NNW NANTUCKET 41.44N 70.19W
09/04/2010 ANZ232 MA BUOY

ACK SOUND BUOY 44020 RECORDED SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH.

0225 AM TROPICAL STORM NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
09/04/2010 NANTUCKET MA ASOS

ACK ASOS RECORDED SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH.

0321 AM TROPICAL STORM 13 S HYANNIS 41.47N 70.31W
09/04/2010 ANZ232 MA MESONET

HORSESHOE SHOALS CAPE WIND TOWER IN ACK SOUND RECORDED A
WIND GUST OF 60 MPH.


&&

$$

KAB

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KCAR [041604]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCAR 041604
LSRCAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1204 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1203 PM HEAVY RAIN MACHIAS 44.72N 67.46W
09/04/2010 E0.00 INCH WASHINGTON ME OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MINOR STREET FLOODING...ONE STREET CLOSED...1 BASEMENT
FLOODED.


&&

$$

RICHARDN

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KOKX [041502]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 041502
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1059 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 AM TROPICAL STORM SHINNECOCK HILLS 40.90N 72.46W
09/03/2010 SUFFOLK NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

ALL TOWN BEACHES CLOSED. STANDING WATER ON DUNE ROAD
BETWEEN ROAD L AND TIANA BEACH AT LOW TIDE. ROAD IS
CLOSED.

0510 PM TROPICAL STORM SHINNECOCK HILLS 40.90N 72.46W
09/03/2010 SUFFOLK NY EMERGENCY MNGR

TABLES AND CHAIRS WASHED INTO VEHICLES PARKED AS WELL AS
A PORTABLE TOILET OVERTURNED BY WAVES AT SHINNECOCK WEST
COUNTY PARK.

0518 PM TROPICAL STORM OCEAN BEACH 40.65N 73.16W
09/03/2010 SUFFOLK NY EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING ON FIRE ISLAND WITH 3-4 FT SEAS.

0524 PM TROPICAL STORM HAMPTON BAYS 40.88N 72.52W
09/03/2010 SUFFOLK NY EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE TREE DOWN ON RIGHT OF WAY FOULING TRACKS.

0633 PM TROPICAL STORM QUOGUE 40.85N 72.60W
09/03/2010 SUFFOLK NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

DUNE ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING FROM SHINNECOCK INLET TO
QUOGUE VILLAGE.

0645 PM TROPICAL STORM SHINNECOCK HILLS 40.90N 72.46W
09/03/2010 SUFFOLK NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

ALL OCEAN BEACHES REPORTING HIGH TIDES AND VERY HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS. SMITH POINT OUTER BEACH IMPASSABLE AS WATER
IS UP TO DUNE LINE AT ENTRANCE TO OUTER BEACH. SHINNECOCK
WEST CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WAVE ACTIVITY.

0705 PM TROPICAL STORM ORIENT 41.14N 72.30W
09/03/2010 SUFFOLK NY EMERGENCY MNGR

DOT CREWS RESPONDING TO FLOODING ON NY 25 AT TERRY LANE.


&&

$$

JM

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KAPX [041326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 041326
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
926 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SAULT STE. MARIE 46.48N 84.37W
09/03/2010 CHIPPEWA MI BROADCAST MEDIA

16 INCH DIAMETER TREE SNAPPED ALONG WITH NUMEROUS OTHER
TREE LIMB DAMAGE.


&&

$$

TJL

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KMQT [041247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 041247
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
847 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG EAGLE RIVER 47.41N 88.30W
09/03/2010 KEWEENAW MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED THROUGHOUT COUNTY. ONE TREE
REPORTED DOWN ON CAMPER NEAR COPPER HARBOR. ESTIMATED
WIND GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH. TIME APPROXIMATE AS STRONG WINDS
LASTED MOST OF THE EVENING.


&&

$$

MRD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041222
SWODY1
SPC AC 041221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS...

LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF NEXT
UPSTREAM SYSTEM THROUGH THE GULF OF AK. AS THIS OCCURS...AN
UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT MID TO UPPER-LEVEL STREAKS
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL PROPAGATE SEWD...CONTRIBUTING
TO A NET SEWD DEVELOPMENT/AMPLIFICATION OF BROADER-SCALE TROUGH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
REGION...SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE ERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING...THOUGH IN GENERAL...AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND PW VALUES LESS
THAN AN INCH. HOWEVER...REGION WILL RESIDE WITHIN A PLUME OF STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOULD YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. THIS
DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH INCREASED HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED
STORM FORMATION ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN AND CNTRL
MT. AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPLY-MIXED
PBL WITH 40-50 KT OF WLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF HIGH-BASED STORMS /INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/ WITH THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. TSTMS
SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS AND SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RAPIDLY ACCUMULATES.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 09/04/2010

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KKEY [041104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 041104
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
703 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
09/04/2010 M40 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A NORTHWEST WIND GUST OF 35 KTS...OR 40 MPH...WAS
RECORDED BY THE C-MAN STATION ON SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT AT
531 AM EDT. THIS GUST WAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE KEYS.


&&

$$

DDR

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040852
SWOD48
SPC AC 040851

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AS GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG LATEST ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...IT IS
LIKELY THAT A RELATIVELY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL STATES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A
WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE ANTICIPATED
AVAILABILITY OF A BROAD/HIGHER QUALITY MOIST SECTOR GIVEN A
STALLING/RETREATING CENTRAL STATES FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK. INITIALLY...IT APPEARS THAT SOME SEVERE RISK MAY EXIST ON
DAY 5/WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A MORE
APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK SHOULD UNFOLD INTO DAYS 6/7...MAINLY THE
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN/NORTHERN NEB ON DAY 6/THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON DAY 7/FRIDAY. WHILE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS WILL ULTIMATELY BE WARRANTED IN THIS
TIME FRAME...LARGE SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTY/INHERENT UNKNOWNS
CURRENTLY PRECLUDE DELINEATION OF ANY HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT
AND GREATER/ SEVERE RISK AREAS.

..GUYER.. 09/04/2010

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KBOX [040756]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBOX 040756
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM STORM SURGE NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
09/03/2010 E0.00 FT NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

MADAKET BEACH UNDERWATER...SEAWATER INUNDATING LONG POND.


0730 PM TROPICAL STORM ORLEANS 41.79N 70.00W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROUTE 6 FROM EXIT 12 TO THE ROTARY.

1010 PM TROPICAL STORM HARWICH 41.69N 70.07W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 28 NEAR EVELYNS WAY...PARTIALLY
BLOCKING ROUTE 28.

1148 PM TROPICAL STORM CHATHAM 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING TRAINING FIELD ROAD.

1157 PM FLOOD CHATHAM 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TEN INCHES OF WATER FLOODED ORLEANS ROAD.

1234 AM FLOOD HARWICH 41.69N 70.07W
09/04/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

A FOOT OF WATER INUNDATED THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 137
AND PLEASANT BAY ROAD.

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN YARMOUTH 41.71N 70.23W
09/04/2010 E3.74 INCH BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN EASTHAM 41.83N 69.97W
09/04/2010 E2.01 INCH BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN HARWICH 41.69N 70.07W
09/04/2010 E2.58 INCH BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN FALMOUTH 41.55N 70.61W
09/04/2010 E2.30 INCH BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN WEST TISBURY 41.38N 70.68W
09/04/2010 E2.91 INCH DUKES MA AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN BARNSTABLE 41.70N 70.30W
09/04/2010 E2.27 INCH BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

MARSTON MILLS.

0100 AM TROPICAL STORM BOURNE 41.73N 70.61W
09/04/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 28A ON THE BOURNE/FALMOUTH TOWN LINE.

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
09/04/2010 E2.18 INCH NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

0138 AM TROPICAL STORM 5 SSE BARNSTABLE 41.63N 70.28W
09/04/2010 BARNSTABLE MA MESONET

MESONET AT KALMUS MASS RECORDED WIND GUSTS TO 58 MPH.

0321 AM TROPICAL STORM 13 S HYANNIS 41.47N 70.31W
09/04/2010 ANZ232 MA AMATEUR RADIO

HORSESHOE SHOALS RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH.


&&

$$

RLG

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 040729
SWODY3
SPC AC 040728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREE THAT A BASAL SHORTWAVE
PORTION OF THIS WEEKENDS NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD/TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON LABOR DAY. ASSOCIATED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS THE
PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY.

...UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
CURRENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE BRUNT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE MIDDLE MO RIVER
VALLEY VICINITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS FOCUSED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IA/MN TO THE ADJACENT UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE RECENT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE /NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST/...AND THE RESIDUAL
INFLUENCE OF EASTERN STATES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE/ASSOCIATED
TRAJECTORIES...WILL ONLY BE CONDUCIVE FOR A NARROW WARM MOIST SECTOR
/WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND AN EASTWARD ADVECTING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD GENERALLY CAP SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...OR MORE LIKELY...EARLY EVENING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND
TIMING/EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN....AMPLE
LARGE SCALE FORCING ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
ROBUST WIND PROFILES /50-75 KT AT 500 MB WITH 45-50 KT AT 850 MB/
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FORECAST STRONG BUT LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEGREE OF/FRONTAL NATURE OF
THE FORCING...IMPLY THAT DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERNS.

IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT AFOREMENTIONED
MODEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SOME LARGE SCALE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
JUNCTURE PRECLUDE A SLIGHT RISK.

..GUYER.. 09/04/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 040557
SWODY2
SPC AC 040556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
OVER THE CONUS...WITH TSTM POTENTIAL GENERALLY TIED TO AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. OTHER TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
ALONG/SOUTH OF A RESIDUAL SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TX COASTAL VICINITY AS WELL.

...NORTHERN WY/NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN STATES UPPER
TROUGH...APPRECIABLE LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. WHILE AMPLE LARGE SCALE
FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING UPPER
TROUGH...MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN/QUALITY WILL LIMIT BOTH TSTM
COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING BY A STOUT
EASTWARD ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED PLUME. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL NONETHELESS BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH TWO
GENERAL SCENARIOS.

ALONG/BEHIND A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT...THE FIRST WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT/WY TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITHIN A MODESTLY
MOISTENING POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WY TO WESTERN SD...WHERE WEAK
BUOYANCY/COOLING ALOFT AND STRONG WIND PROFILES MAY YIELD SOME
STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...AS A WARM
ADVECTION/MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME /ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT/ CONTRIBUTES TO TSTM POTENTIAL NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT. INITIALLY MODEST MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE RISK.

..GUYER.. 09/04/2010

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KBOX [040539]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBOX 040539
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM STORM SURGE NEWPORT 41.49N 71.32W
09/03/2010 E0.00 FT NEWPORT RI AMATEUR RADIO

OCEAN DRIVE FROM FORT ADAMS TO BAILY BEACH CLOSED WITH
SEAWATER AND DEBRIS FROM THE SEAWALL OVER THE ROAD.

0405 PM STORM SURGE NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
09/03/2010 E0.00 FT NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

MADAKET BEACH UNDERWATER...SEAWATER INUNDATING LONG POND.


0730 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ORLEANS 41.79N 70.00W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROUTE 6 FROM EXIT 12 TO THE ROTARY.

1010 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG HARWICH 41.69N 70.07W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 28 NEAR EVELYNS WAY...PARTIALLY
BLOCKING ROUTE 28.

1148 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CHATHAM 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING TRAINING FIELD ROAD.

1157 PM FLOOD CHATHAM 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TEN INCHES OF WATER FLOODED ORLEANS ROAD.

1234 AM FLOOD HARWICH 41.69N 70.07W
09/04/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

A FOOT OF WATER INUNDATED THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 137
AND PLEASANT BAY ROAD.

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
09/04/2010 E2.18 INCH NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN EASTHAM 41.83N 69.97W
09/04/2010 E2.01 INCH BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN YARMOUTH 41.71N 70.23W
09/04/2010 E3.74 INCH BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN HARWICH 41.69N 70.07W
09/04/2010 E2.58 INCH BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN FALMOUTH 41.55N 70.61W
09/04/2010 E2.30 INCH BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN WEST TISBURY 41.38N 70.68W
09/04/2010 E2.91 INCH DUKES MA AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN BARNSTABLE 41.70N 70.30W
09/04/2010 E2.27 INCH BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

MARSTON MILLS.


&&

$$

RLG

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KBOX [040513]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBOX 040513
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
113 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM STORM SURGE NEWPORT 41.49N 71.32W
09/03/2010 E0.00 FT NEWPORT RI AMATEUR RADIO

OCEAN DRIVE FROM FORT ADAMS TO BAILY BEACH CLOSED WITH
SEAWATER AND DEBRIS FROM THE SEAWALL OVER THE ROAD.

0405 PM STORM SURGE NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
09/03/2010 E0.00 FT NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

MADAKET BEACH UNDERWATER...SEAWATER INUNDATING LONG POND.


0730 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ORLEANS 41.79N 70.00W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROUTE 6 FROM EXIT 12 TO THE ROTARY.

1010 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG HARWICH 41.69N 70.07W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 28 NEAR EVELYNS WAY...PARTIALLY
BLOCKING ROUTE 28.

1148 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CHATHAM 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING TRAINING FIELD ROAD.

1157 PM FLOOD CHATHAM 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TEN INCHES OF WATER FLOODED ORLEANS ROAD.

1234 AM FLOOD HARWICH 41.69N 70.07W
09/04/2010 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

A FOOT OF WATER INUNDATED THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 137
AND PLEASANT BAY ROAD.


&&

$$

RLG

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KGRB [040400]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 040400
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1100 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WASHINGTON ISLAND 45.38N 86.90W
09/03/2010 DOOR WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES HAVE FALLEN ONTO POWERLINES ACROSS
WASHINGTON ISLAND AND OVER FAR NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. THE
PEAK WIND AT GILLS ROCK HIT 54 MPH AROUND 8 PM THIS
EVENING.


&&

$$

ECKBERG

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