SWOD48
SPC AC 040851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AS GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG LATEST ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...IT IS
LIKELY THAT A RELATIVELY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL STATES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A
WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE ANTICIPATED
AVAILABILITY OF A BROAD/HIGHER QUALITY MOIST SECTOR GIVEN A
STALLING/RETREATING CENTRAL STATES FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK. INITIALLY...IT APPEARS THAT SOME SEVERE RISK MAY EXIST ON
DAY 5/WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A MORE
APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK SHOULD UNFOLD INTO DAYS 6/7...MAINLY THE
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN/NORTHERN NEB ON DAY 6/THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON DAY 7/FRIDAY. WHILE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS WILL ULTIMATELY BE WARRANTED IN THIS
TIME FRAME...LARGE SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTY/INHERENT UNKNOWNS
CURRENTLY PRECLUDE DELINEATION OF ANY HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT
AND GREATER/ SEVERE RISK AREAS.
..GUYER.. 09/04/2010
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