Monday, May 10, 2010

KLZK [110359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 110359
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1058 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 PM HAIL PELSOR 35.72N 93.09W
05/10/2010 E0.88 INCH POPE AR PARK/FOREST SRVC


&&

$$

51

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KOUN [110358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KOUN 110358
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM HAIL NW ALVA 36.80N 98.67W
05/10/2010 E1.50 INCH WOODS OK PUBLIC

0249 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GAGE 36.32N 99.76W
05/10/2010 M63.00 MPH ELLIS OK ASOS

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 WSW ARNETT 36.09N 99.90W
05/10/2010 M58.00 MPH ELLIS OK MESONET

0303 PM HAIL E LAMBERT 36.68N 98.42W
05/10/2010 E1.75 INCH ALFALFA OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0310 PM HAIL CHEROKEE 36.75N 98.35W
05/10/2010 E4.25 INCH ALFALFA OK STORM CHASER

NUMEROUS BUILDINGS HAD BROKEN WINDOWS. REPORT RELAYED
FROM NWS TULSA.

0320 PM HAIL CHEROKEE 36.75N 98.35W
05/10/2010 E2.75 INCH ALFALFA OK STORM CHASER

0333 PM TORNADO 11 SW WAKITA 36.77N 98.06W
05/10/2010 GRANT OK TRAINED SPOTTER

ON THE GROUND FOR A MINUTE BEFORE LIFTING OFF THE GROUND.
REPORTS FROM MULTIPLE SPOTTER AND CHASERS.

0343 PM TORNADO 6 NW MEDFORD 36.87N 97.81W
05/10/2010 GRANT OK NWS EMPLOYEE

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE REPORTED. LOCATION ESTIMATED.

0357 PM HAIL WAUKOMIS 36.28N 97.90W
05/10/2010 E1.00 INCH GARFIELD OK AMATEUR RADIO

0400 PM HAIL 3 SE RENFROW 36.89N 97.62W
05/10/2010 E2.75 INCH GRANT OK PUBLIC

DAMAGE REPORTED

0400 PM HAIL WAUKOMIS 36.28N 97.90W
05/10/2010 E1.75 INCH GARFIELD OK AMATEUR RADIO

0402 PM HAIL 5 E VANCE AIR FORCE BAS 36.34N 97.81W
05/10/2010 E1.00 INCH GARFIELD OK AMATEUR RADIO

0408 PM HAIL 3 E WAUKOMIS 36.28N 97.84W
05/10/2010 E1.75 INCH GARFIELD OK PUBLIC

0410 PM HAIL 1 SE FAIRMONT 36.34N 97.69W
05/10/2010 E2.00 INCH GARFIELD OK AMATEUR RADIO

0417 PM HAIL GARBER 36.44N 97.58W
05/10/2010 E2.50 INCH GARFIELD OK PUBLIC

0425 PM HAIL GARBER 36.44N 97.58W
05/10/2010 E1.75 INCH GARFIELD OK AMATEUR RADIO

0430 PM TORNADO 4 N BRAMAN 36.98N 97.33W
05/10/2010 KAY OK EMERGENCY MNGR

LOCATION ESTIMATED. DAMAGE REPORTED WITH TRANSPORTS
FLIPPED.

0450 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E CASHION 35.80N 97.64W
05/10/2010 LOGAN OK EMERGENCY MNGR

3 HAM ANTENNAS BLOWN DOWN...NUMEROUS SHEDS DAMAGED.
SIDING FROM A HOUSE WAS DAMAGED.

0450 PM TORNADO 4 SW YUKON 35.47N 97.80W
05/10/2010 CANADIAN OK BROADCAST MEDIA

VIA KOTV...AND NUMEROUS SPOTTER REPORTS.

0453 PM TORNADO 1 NNE RED ROCK 36.47N 97.17W
05/10/2010 NOBLE OK BROADCAST MEDIA

TWO INDEPENDENT REPORTS OF A TORNADO NORTH OF RED ROCK.
ONE REPORT SAID DEBRIS IN THE AIR.

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N NORMAN 35.26N 97.44W
05/10/2010 CLEVELAND OK PUBLIC

BRADFORD PEAR TREE SHEARED OFF AT THE BOTTOM. FENCE BLOWN
ACROSS ROAD. SOME SHINGLES OFF HOUSES. POWER POLES DOWN
TOO.

0515 PM HAIL DEL CITY 35.45N 97.44W
05/10/2010 E3.75 INCH OKLAHOMA OK PUBLIC

3.5 TO 4 INCH DIAMETER HAIL. DELAYED REPORT.

0516 PM HAIL MOORE 35.34N 97.49W
05/10/2010 E2.75 INCH CLEVELAND OK AMATEUR RADIO

0518 PM TORNADO 2 SW MOORE 35.32N 97.51W
05/10/2010 CLEVELAND OK AMATEUR RADIO

TORNADO ORIGINALLY REPORTED BY MULTIPLE SOURCES NEAR
164TH AND JUST EAST OF WESTERN AVE IN MOORE. NUMEROUS
TORNADO REPORTS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH MOORE CITY
LIMITS.

0520 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NW NORMAN 35.24N 97.47W
05/10/2010 M63.00 MPH CLEVELAND OK MESONET

0523 PM HAIL 4 W MOORE 35.34N 97.56W
05/10/2010 M2.13 INCH CLEVELAND OK NWS EMPLOYEE

0525 PM TORNADO 3 ESE MOORE 35.32N 97.44W
05/10/2010 CLEVELAND OK EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER LINES DOWN AND REPORTS OF ROOFS BLOWN OFF HOUSES SE
149TH BETWEEN SUNNYLANE AND SOONER RD.

0525 PM HAIL 1 ENE MOORE 35.34N 97.47W
05/10/2010 E4.00 INCH CLEVELAND OK NWS EMPLOYEE

INITIAL OBSERVER REPORTED THAT THE HAIL WAS ACTUALLY
LARGER BEFORE IT WAS LATER PHOTOGRAPHED AT AROUND 4
INCHES IN DIAMETER.

0530 PM HAIL 1 SE MOORE 35.33N 97.47W
05/10/2010 E2.75 INCH CLEVELAND OK PUBLIC

ALSO TREE DAMAGE REPORTED IN THE AREA.

0530 PM HAIL 3 S CHOCTAW 35.44N 97.27W
05/10/2010 E1.75 INCH OKLAHOMA OK PUBLIC

0532 PM HAIL RYAN 34.02N 97.95W
05/10/2010 E1.75 INCH JEFFERSON OK PUBLIC

0532 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SE NORMAN 35.20N 97.42W
05/10/2010 M64.00 MPH CLEVELAND OK NWS EMPLOYEE

56 KNOT WIND GUST MEASURED BY ANEMOMETER AT NATIONAL
WEATHER CENTER AS FUNNEL PASSED NEARBY.

0533 PM TORNADO 2 SE NORMAN 35.20N 97.42W
05/10/2010 CLEVELAND OK BROADCAST MEDIA

FUNNEL CLOUD WAS ORIGINALLY OBSERVED DESCENDING RAPIDLY
AT 532 PM FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER CENTER BUILDING.
DAMAGE AND TOUCHDOWN REPORTED JUST EAST OF THE BUILDING
ALONG HIGHWAY 9. TORNADO THEN GREW IN SIZE...SIGNIFICANT
AND LARGE TORNADO STILL ON THE GROUND CAUSING DAMAGE.

0537 PM HAIL STILLWATER 36.12N 97.06W
05/10/2010 E1.75 INCH PAYNE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0538 PM TORNADO 4 SE NORMAN 35.18N 97.39W
05/10/2010 CLEVELAND OK NWS EMPLOYEE

TORNADO THAT ORIGINALLY TOUCHED DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 9
CROSSED NEAR HIGHWAY 9 AND 60TH. MEASURED WINDS OF 103
MPH REPORTED BY AN ANEMOMETER AT THAT LOCATION. TIME IS
EXACT. TORNADO DAMAGE ALSO REPORTED.

0600 PM HAIL OSCAR 33.98N 97.75W
05/10/2010 E2.00 INCH JEFFERSON OK PUBLIC

0605 PM TORNADO 7 W SEMINOLE 35.23N 96.80W
05/10/2010 POTTAWATOMIE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

LOCATION ESTIMATED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER WHO VIEWED THE
TORNADO.

0615 PM TORNADO 3 SE HEALDTON 34.20N 97.45W
05/10/2010 CARTER OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN CAUSING DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER
LINES...WITH MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

0620 PM HAIL 9 E OVERBROOK 34.07N 96.99W
05/10/2010 E1.75 INCH CARTER OK PUBLIC

0620 PM TORNADO 1 N SEMINOLE 35.24N 96.67W
05/10/2010 SEMINOLE OK OTHER FEDERAL

LARGE TORNADO REPORTED BY THE VORTEX TEAMS CROSSING JUST
NORTH OF SEMINOLE. NEW INFORMATION...SEMINOLE COUNTY EM
REPORTS SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE AT SEMINOLE AIRPORT WITH
HANGARS DESTROYED.

0625 PM HAIL 2 SE NORMAN 35.20N 97.42W
05/10/2010 E1.00 INCH CLEVELAND OK NWS EMPLOYEE

FALLING AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER CENTER.

0630 PM HAIL 5 SE DAVIS 34.45N 97.06W
05/10/2010 E1.00 INCH MURRAY OK PUBLIC

DELAYED REPORT RELAYED BY NWS AMARILLO EMPLOYEE

0630 PM HAIL 10 NW MARIETTA 34.04N 97.25W
05/10/2010 E4.25 INCH LOVE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTS OF GOLFBALL...BASEBALL...UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL
IN NORTHERN LOVE COUNTY. TIME APPROXIMATE.

0634 PM TORNADO ARDMORE 34.17N 97.13W
05/10/2010 CARTER OK EMERGENCY MNGR

TORNADO NEAR ARDMORE...EXACT LOCATION UNSPECIFIED.

0639 PM TORNADO 5 W MANNSVILLE 34.19N 96.97W
05/10/2010 CARTER OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0705 PM HAIL LAKE MURRAY 34.07N 97.07W
05/10/2010 E1.00 INCH LOVE OK PUBLIC

0708 PM TORNADO LEBANON 33.99N 96.91W
05/10/2010 MARSHALL OK EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE TORNADO REPORTED JUST ON OKLAHOMA SIDE OF RED RIVER
BY MULTIPLE SOURCES.

0719 PM TORNADO 1 S LEBANON 33.97N 96.91W
05/10/2010 MARSHALL OK NWS EMPLOYEE

NEW TORNADO...DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUSLY REPORTED
TORNADO...JUST ON OKLAHOMA SIDE OF RED RIVER. ALSO
REPORTED AS A LARGE TORNADO. RELAYED BY NWS FORT WORTH.

0725 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N ADA 34.83N 96.66W
05/10/2010 M75.00 MPH PONTOTOC OK EMERGENCY MNGR

LOCATION APPROXIMATE.

0732 PM HAIL 12 SW ADA 34.65N 96.81W
05/10/2010 E1.00 INCH PONTOTOC OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0750 PM HAIL 5 S DAVIS 34.43N 97.12W
05/10/2010 E1.00 INCH MURRAY OK PUBLIC

ALONG HWY 77

0810 PM TORNADO 3 S MILL CREEK 34.36N 96.82W
05/10/2010 JOHNSTON OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0811 PM TORNADO 5 SW MILL CREEK 34.35N 96.89W
05/10/2010 MURRAY OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0815 PM HAIL 5 S FITTSTOWN 34.55N 96.63W
05/10/2010 E1.00 INCH PONTOTOC OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0850 PM TORNADO 3 S COLEMAN 34.23N 96.42W
05/10/2010 JOHNSTON OK EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

RILEY

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KFWD [110355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 110355
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1055 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1053 PM HAIL 7 E BONHAM 33.58N 96.06W
05/10/2010 E0.88 INCH FANNIN TX TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL 7 MILES EAST OF BONHAM

$$

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KTSA [110349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 110349
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0907 PM FUNNEL CLOUD NATURAL DAM 35.65N 94.39W
05/10/2010 CRAWFORD AR PUBLIC


&&

$$

RBD

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KLSX [110349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 110349
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1049 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1046 PM HAIL MARYLAND HEIGHTS 38.72N 90.48W
05/10/2010 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JP

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KLSX [110348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 110348
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1048 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1043 PM HAIL DESLOGE 37.87N 90.52W
05/10/2010 E0.25 INCH ST. FRANCOIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JP

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 150

WWUS20 KWNS 110346
SEL0
SPC WW 110346
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-110500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 150 ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ARKANSAS
KANSAS
MISSOURI
OKLAHOMA

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KLSX [110335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 110335
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1035 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1032 PM HAIL CHESTERFIELD 38.65N 90.58W
05/10/2010 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JP

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KLUB [101801]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 101801
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
101 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ABERNATHY 33.83N 101.84W
05/10/2010 M62 MPH LUBBOCK TX WEST TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000095

$$

JM

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KDDC [101753]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 101753
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1253 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N JOHNSON CITY 37.60N 101.75W
05/10/2010 M60.00 MPH STANTON KS EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

18

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KLUB [101747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 101747
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1247 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1243 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ABERNATHY 33.83N 101.84W
05/10/2010 M59 MPH LUBBOCK TX WEST TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000094

$$

JM

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KLUB [101747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 101747
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1247 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1246 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ANTON 33.81N 102.16W
05/10/2010 M61 MPH HOCKLEY TX WEST TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000093

$$

JM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0507

ACUS11 KWNS 101747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101746
OKZ000-KSZ000-101945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101746Z - 101945Z

SIGNS FOR STORM INITIATION ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. ONCE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL
BE REQUIRED...PERHAPS WITHIN THE HOUR.

AS A 90+ KT CYCLONIC...WESTERLY...500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO
NOSE EASTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENING/MIXING PROGRESSES TO THE WEST
OF THE DRY LINE...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM APPEARS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A RAPID DRY LINE SURGE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
FOCUSED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AXIS...ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS FORCING...COUPLED WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION AS LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT INTO
THE REGION...CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 19-21Z.

ALTHOUGH 50+ KT 850 MB FLOW WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT VEERED...TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY REMAIN
BACKED...AT A SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT... WITHIN A BROAD
RETREATING WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THIS PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE... SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOSCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY STORMS WILL BECOME TORNADIC. BUT
TORNADO POTENTIAL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE PRIOR TO
00Z...AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS/ NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VIGOROUS
STORMS.

..KERR.. 05/10/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 36579927 37259868 37619763 36829624 35969628 35709689
35649767 35619848 35829878 36579927

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101739
SWODY2
SPC AC 101738

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME...THE
CURRENT PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT
CROSSES THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A
SUBSEQUENT/STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/TRANSITION EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED/TRAILING COLD FRONT
DECELERATING ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS
FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...OH VALLEY...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD BE DRIVING PLENTIFUL EARLY DAY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...THE EXTENT/VIGOR OF
SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE PARENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A PRE-PEAK HEATING TREND TOWARD RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
NONETHELESS...A MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY FEED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST /1000-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND STRONG BUT LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS
INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS. IN ALL...A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS WELL AS SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MO RIVER VALLEY/OZARKS...
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY /PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/
SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTH-NORTHWEST MAINLY ACROSS OK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE AMPLE HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
7.5-8.0 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
DRYLINE/SOUTH OF THE RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODEST LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT/BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE IMPLY UNCERTAIN/LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE. WITH THAT SAID...STRONG HEATING/MIXING ALONG THE
DRYLINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO HELP DEVELOP AT LEAST A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
OK/PERHAPS ADJACENT NORTH TX. FURTHERMORE...THIS COULD BE AIDED BY
12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IMPLICATIONS OF A SUBTLE SPEED
MAX/PERTURBATION CROSSING WEST/NORTHWEST TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN A RELATIVELY VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND
AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL-TYPE SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS OK/ADJACENT NORTH TX APPEARS WARRANTED...AS LARGE
HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE PROVIDED SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...HOWEVER...IS FOR A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN
ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OK AND ESPECIALLY KS/MO TUESDAY
NIGHT OWING TO GRADUAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET. A SOURCE REGION RESERVOIR OF AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

..GUYER.. 05/10/2010

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KLUB [101739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 101739
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1239 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SSW ANTON 33.73N 102.20W
05/10/2010 M60 MPH HOCKLEY TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000092

$$

LINDLEY

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 146

WWUS20 KWNS 101735
SEL6
SPC WW 101735
COZ000-KSZ000-110000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
GOODLAND KANSAS TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
FEW TORNADOES. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

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KMFR [101733]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 101733
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1033 AM PDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1032 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.71W
05/10/2010 M1.00 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH RAINFALL PAST 24 HOURS. RAIN/SNOW MIX CURRENTLY
AND 38 DEGREES F.


&&

$$

KEENE

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KLUB [101731]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 101731
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1225 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S LEVELLAND 33.52N 102.36W
05/10/2010 M59 MPH HOCKLEY TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000091

$$

LINDLEY

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KFFC [101727]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 101727
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
127 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..


&&

$$

RBLACK

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KMFR [101726]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 101726
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1026 AM PDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE HARBOR 42.00N 124.20W
05/10/2010 M1.50 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

AMOUNT IS SINCE MIDNIGHT


&&

$$

SPILDE

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KLUB [101723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 101723
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1223 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW MULESHOE 34.20N 102.74W
05/10/2010 M61 MPH BAILEY TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000090

$$

LINDLEY

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KLUB [101718]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 101718
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1218 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW MULESHOE 34.20N 102.74W
05/10/2010 M58 MPH BAILEY TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000089

$$

LINDLEY

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KFFC [101714]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 101714
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
114 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..


&&
TEST
$$

RBLACK

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KLUB [101711]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 101711
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1211 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 S OLTON 34.09N 102.14W
05/10/2010 M58 MPH LAMB TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000088

$$

LINDLEY

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KLUB [101709]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 101709
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1209 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE AMHERST 34.02N 102.40W
05/10/2010 M62 MPH LAMB TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000087

$$

LINDLEY

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KLUB [101700]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 101700
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE MORTON 33.73N 102.74W
05/10/2010 M60 MPH COCHRAN TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000086

$$

LINDLEY

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KLUB [101657]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 101657
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1157 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE TULIA 34.55N 101.74W
05/10/2010 M58 MPH SWISHER TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000085

$$

LINDLEY

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KJAX [101657]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 101657
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1257 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM TSTM WND DMG HOMERVILLE 31.04N 82.75W
05/08/2010 CLINCH GA PUBLIC

TREE LIMBS WERE REPORTED DOWN IN HOMERVILLE.


&&

$$

ARS/KG

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KLUB [101657]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 101657
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1156 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N HART 34.43N 102.11W
05/10/2010 M60 MPH CASTRO TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000084

$$

LINDLEY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101615
SWODY1
SPC AC 101614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK IN
KS...OK...SW MO...AND NW AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NW TX TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...

...A FEW STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...ALONG WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NE OK AND EXTREME S CENTRAL/SE
KS...

A POWERFUL AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS CO/NM THIS MORNING...AND WILL EMERGE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BROAD AREA OF
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IS TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE
QUICKLY NORTHWARD WITH MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NORTH AS
SOUTHERN OK. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO ERODING ACROSS OK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A VERY POTENT SEVERE WEATHER SETUP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL TORNADO AND SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER
PORTIONS OF KS/OK.

...SOUTHWEST KS...
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
DRYLINE OVER SOUTHWEST KS. LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM THE WEST IN
THIS AREA...LEADING TO A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL ARRIVE IN THIS AREA
FIRST...WHERE THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE WEAK. WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS
ON SPEED OF DESTABILIZATION FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL KS.

...SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK...
THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AROUND
21Z IN NORTH CENTRAL OR POTENTIALLY NORTHWEST OK ALONG THE DRYLINE.
THIS WILL ALSO BE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE
AND RETREATING WARM FRONT. STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER /EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 50-75 KNOTS/ AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH OF
250-350 M2/S2/...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S/ AND CAPE /RELATIVELY UNCAPPED MLCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG/. STORMS
SHOULD BECOME RAPIDLY SUPERCELLULAR AND RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PARAMETERS INDICATE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG AND EVEN LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS.

THE EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE REMAINS A
QUESTION. SOME OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT...SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SEVERE
STORMS COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH AS I-40. HOWEVER...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HIGH RISK AREA. ANY STORM
THAT FORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OK TODAY WILL POSE A THREAT OF
STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TX...AND MAY PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LACK OF SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING AND A RATHER STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION SUGGEST THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
QUITE SPARSE.

..HART/SMITH.. 05/10/2010

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

645
WOUS40 KWNS 101615
PWOSPC
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-110200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD TO PARTS OF TEXAS.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE
NEAR AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES TODAY...HIGH POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL...AIDED
BY STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR.

STRONGEST STORMS MAY FIRST FORM ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING EASTWARD
AND INCREASING IN NUMBER AND STRENGTH ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...TOWARD THE OZARKS...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..KERR.. 05/10/2010

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KGJT [101615]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 101615
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1014 AM MDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0948 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GYPSUM 39.64N 106.95W
05/10/2010 M59 MPH EAGLE CO AWOS

WIND GUST AT EAGLE AIRPORT EGE


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000549

$$

DLC

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KTOP [101547]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 101547
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1047 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HAIL 1 E MANHATTAN 39.18N 96.55W
05/10/2010 E1.00 INCH RILEY KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

MRC

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0506

ACUS11 KWNS 101538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101537
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-101730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EXTREME ERN CO...WRN KS INTO NW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101537Z - 101730Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AROUND 17-18Z.


LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND RUC GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A 90+ KT
CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF NOSING EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO/THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING EAST OF THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATELY STRONG CAPE AS SURFACE HEATING PROGRESSES. THE
DEVELOPING DRY LINE NEAR A DEEP SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION ...AND STORM
INITIATION...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ALREADY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THOUGH
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MODEST...CLOCKWISE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/ INCREASING AMBIENT
VERTICAL VORTICITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL PROBABLY
BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 05/10/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 39310294 39910203 39190080 38889972 37959927 36949911
36529996 36850108 37690173 38510209 39310294

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KTOP [101532]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 101532
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1032 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1028 AM HAIL E DELIA 39.24N 95.96W
05/10/2010 E0.75 INCH JACKSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

SECOND ROUND OF HAIL THIS MORNING


&&

$$

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KCYS [101527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KCYS 101527
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
927 AM MDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1113 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NW CHEYENNE 41.21N 104.87W
05/09/2010 LARAMIE WY PUBLIC

SHOP DOORS BLOWN OFF. DAVIS INSTRUMENTS EQUIPMENT PUT
GUST AT 83 MPH.


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [101522]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 101522
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
922 AM MDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1113 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NW CHEYENNE 41.21N 104.87W
05/09/2010 LARAMIE WY PUBLIC

SHOP DOORS BLOWEN OFF. DAVIS INSTRAMENTS EQUIPMENT PUT
GUST AT 83 MPH.


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KTOP [101503]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 101503
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1003 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1001 AM HAIL DELIA 39.24N 95.97W
05/10/2010 E0.75 INCH JACKSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

MOST OF THE HAIL WAS DIME SIZE


&&

$$

MRC

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KTOP [101456]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 101456
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
956 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0942 AM HAIL 3 ENE BELVUE 39.24N 96.12W
05/10/2010 E0.88 INCH POTTAWATOMIE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

MOST OF THE HAIL WAS PEA TO MARBLE SIZE


&&

$$

MRC

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KTOP [101454]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 101454
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
954 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0944 AM HAIL 2 SSW SOLDIER 39.51N 95.98W
05/10/2010 E0.25 INCH JACKSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0945 AM HAIL 2 S SOLDIER 39.51N 95.96W
05/10/2010 E0.25 INCH JACKSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MRC

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KCTP [101436]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KCTP 101436
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0246 AM TSTM WND DMG 8 WSW EBENSBURG 40.44N 78.87W
05/08/2010 CAMBRIA PA STORM CHASER

69 MPH MEASURED WIND GUST AND DOWNED TREES ALONG ROUTE 22
ON CHICKORY RIDGE.


&&

$$

MRS

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KOKX [101419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KOKX 101419
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1019 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM LIGHTNING BRIDGEPORT 41.19N 73.20W
05/08/2010 FAIRFIELD CT BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 FATAL, 3 INJ *** ONE FATALITY AND THREE INJURIES AS
A RESULT OF LIGHTNING STRIKE AT SEASIDE PARK.

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG RIVER VALE 41.01N 74.01W
05/08/2010 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF RIVER VALE
ROAD AND WOODLAND COURT.

0345 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SADDLE BROOK 40.90N 74.10W
05/08/2010 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

DOWNED WIRES ON SADDLEBROOK DRIVE RESULTING IN A FIRE.

0415 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LITTLE FALLS 40.88N 74.22W
05/08/2010 PASSAIC NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT

UTILITY POLE AND WIRES DOWN CLOSING TWO LANES OF ROUTE 46
EAST.

0538 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 W MANORVILLE 40.86N 72.89W
05/08/2010 SUFFOLK NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ALONG UPTON ROAD AT BROOKHAVEN NATIONAL LAB IN
UPTON.

0640 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG EASTCHESTER 40.96N 73.81W
05/08/2010 WESTCHESTER NY TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE LIMB...APPROXIMATELY 10 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...DOWN ON GARTH ROAD.

0659 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CARLE PLACE 40.75N 73.61W
05/08/2010 NASSAU NY NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE TREE BRANCH...AT LEAST 1 FOOT IN DIAMETER...DOWN ON
10TH STREET.

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N FLUSHING 40.78N 73.84W
05/08/2010 QUEENS NY NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE TREE LIMB FELL ONTO A CAR ON COLLEGE POINT BLVD AT
25TH AVENUE.

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N FLUSHING 40.78N 73.84W
05/08/2010 QUEENS NY NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE TREE BROUGHT DOWN POWER LINES ON 121ST ST BETWEEN
22ND AVENUE AND 23RD AVENUE IN COLLEGE POINT...CAUSING
POWER OUTAGE FOR ENTIRE BLOCK. ROAD CLOSED.

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N FLUSHING 40.78N 73.84W
05/08/2010 QUEENS NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGHOUT 109TH PRECINCT AREA OF NYPD...WHICH INCLUDES
FLUSHING...QUEENSBORO HILL..COLLEGE
POINT...MALBA...WHITESTONE...BEECHHURST AND BAY TERRACE.


1210 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LEVITTOWN 40.72N 73.51W
05/09/2010 NASSAU NY PUBLIC

POWER OUTAGE DUE TO POWER POLE SNAPPING IN HALF.

1245 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG FANWOOD 40.64N 74.39W
05/09/2010 UNION NJ PUBLIC

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AROUND TOWN. ROAD CLOSURE ON NORTH
AVENUE...BETWEEN MARTINE AVENUE AND SHEELERS CROSSING DUE
TO DOWNED TREE.

0315 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MAHOPAC 41.37N 73.74W
05/09/2010 PUTNAM NY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

LARGE TREE AT CORNER OF SHEARHILL AND CROTON FALLS ROADS
FELL ON POWER LINES SNAPPING TWO POWER POLES IN HALF.
ROADS CLOSED.

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MOUNT SINAI 40.94N 73.02W
05/09/2010 SUFFOLK NY BROADCAST MEDIA

NORTH COUNTRY ROAD IN BOTH DIRECTIONS BETWEEN MOUNT SINAI
CORAM ROAD AND GRASSLAND CIRCLE IS CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED
TREE.


&&

$$

PB

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KTOP [101419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 101419
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
919 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 AM HAIL 4 NNE LOUISVILLE 39.31N 96.30W
05/10/2010 E0.50 INCH POTTAWATOMIE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS ESTIMATED UP TO 40 MPH.


&&

$$

MRC

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KTOP [101358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 101358
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
858 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 AM HAIL 1 SE MANHATTAN 39.17N 96.56W
05/10/2010 M0.75 INCH RILEY KS COUNTY OFFICIAL

MOST OF THE HAIL WAS DIME SIZED


&&

$$

MRC

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KTOP [101357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 101357
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
857 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM HAIL 1 SW MANHATTAN 39.17N 96.58W
05/10/2010 E0.50 INCH RILEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MRC

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KTOP [101339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 101339
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
839 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM TSTM WND GST 2 WNW OLSBURG 39.44N 96.64W
05/10/2010 E50 MPH POTTAWATOMIE KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MRC

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KCYS [101337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 101337 CCA
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1137 PM MDT SUN MAY 09 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM TSTM WND GST 8.3 N CHEYENNE 41.29N 104.79W
05/09/2010 E80 MPH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE

NORTH YELLOWSTONE ROAD


&&

$$

GCLAYCOM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101234
SWODY1
SPC AC 101233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
CENTRAL/NE OK AND SE KS...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK IN
KS...OK...SW MO...AND NW AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NW TX TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...

...A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NE OK AND EXTREME S CENTRAL/SE KS...

...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO MO OVERNIGHT...
RAPID CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS MOVES QUICKLY EWD
TO CENTRAL KS/NRN OK BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUES ENEWD TO THE
MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOIST
AIR MASS /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ WILL SURGE NWD FROM
NW/N CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL AND NRN OK BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND IN RESPONSE TO EWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS
SW/S CENTRAL KS. THE MOST FAVORABLE PHASING OF THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL/NE OK...AND THE ADJACENT
BORDER COUNTIES IN KS. OVERNIGHT...THE BELT OF STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD OVER MO AT A FASTER RATE THAN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL BE ABLE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE...RESULTING IN A DECREASE
IN THE SEVERE STORM/TORNADO RISK LATER TONIGHT.

DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY 18-20Z IN SW KS NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR FARTHER SE ALONG THE SRN KS/NRN OK
DRYLINE AROUND 21-22Z...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE SWD INTO
CENTRAL OK AND NW TX CLOSER TO 22-00Z. THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE MID-UPPER JET CORE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY
TAKE UP TO AN HOUR OR SO TO MATURE. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SRH OF
400-600 M2/S2...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F AND MLCAPE OF
2000-3500 J/KG ALL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES IN THE MDT-HIGH RISK AREAS. THE TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT SHOULD MAXIMIZE FROM ABOUT 22-02Z IN OK/SE KS...WITH A
GRADUAL EVOLUTION TO A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS MO.

POTENTIAL CONCERNS WILL BE THE LATE ARRIVAL AND NARROW WIDTH OF THE
WARM SECTOR COMPARED TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND FAST
STORM MOTIONS. A COMPARISON OF EXPECTED 45-50 KT STORM MOTIONS WITH
WARM SECTOR WIDTH/PROGRESSION SUGGESTS A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW FOR
SUPERCELLS TO MATURE AND REMAIN WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY ACROSS EXTREME SRN/SERN KS AND NRN/NERN OK THIS EVENING.
STILL...IT APPEARS THIS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
LONG TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK FOR A FEW HOURS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...INCLUDING THE WICHITA...TULSA...AND
OKLAHOMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREAS.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 05/10/2010

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

239
WOUS40 KWNS 101015
PWOSPC
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-101800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD TO PARTS OF TEXAS.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TODAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS
ATOP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FAST MOVING SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING A FEW STRONG...
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEGINNING
ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..PETERS.. 05/10/2010

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KVEF [100744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 100744
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1244 AM PDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0141 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WNW PAHRUMP 36.22N 116.09W
05/09/2010 M51.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 51 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE CW9143
MESONET SITE NEAR PAHRUMP AT AN ELEVATION OF 2540 FEET.

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST KINGMAN AIRPORT 35.26N 113.93W
05/09/2010 M52.00 MPH MOHAVE AZ ASOS

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 52 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE KINGMAN
AIRPORT AT AN ELEVATION OF 3389 FEET.

0310 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 05 36.80N 118.13W
05/09/2010 M53.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 5 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
53 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 3756 FEET.

0310 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 02 36.78N 118.24W
05/09/2010 M88.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 2 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
88 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 4842 FEET.

0315 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MERCURY (NTS A23) 36.66N 116.00W
05/09/2010 M57.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 57 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE MERCURY
A23 MESONET SITE AT AN ELEVATION OF 3676 FEET.

0320 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 07 36.75N 118.25W
05/09/2010 M73.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 7 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
73 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 5167 FEET.

0334 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RED ROCK CANYON 36.14N 115.45W
05/09/2010 M48.00 MPH CLARK NV MESONET

RED ROCK CANYON RAWS MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 48 MPH
AT AN ELEVATION OF 3756 FEET.

0337 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HENDERSON EXECUTIVE AIR 35.99N 115.13W
05/09/2010 M49.00 MPH CLARK NV AWOS

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 49 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE HENDERSON
EXECUTIVE AIRPORT AT AN ELEVATION OF 2464 FEET.

0340 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 08 36.76N 118.23W
05/09/2010 M67.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 8 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
67 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 4724 FEET.

0342 PM NON-TSTM WND GST OAK CREEK RAWS 36.84N 118.26W
05/09/2010 M71.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

OAK CREEK RAWS MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST 71 MPH AT AN
ELEVATION OF 4900 FEET.

0346 PM NON-TSTM WND GST TWENTYNINE PALMS MCAS 34.23N 116.06W
05/09/2010 M44.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA ASOS

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 44 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE TWENTYNINE
PALMS MARINA CORPS AIR STATION AT AN ELEVATION OF 2100
FEET.

0351 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BARSTOW 34.88N 117.07W
05/09/2010 M47.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

A MESONET SITE IN BARSTOW MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH
AROUND 2000 FEET IN ELEVATION.

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG GOLDFIELD 37.70N 117.23W
05/09/2010 ESMERALDA NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

GUSTY WINDS CAUSED SPOTTY POWER OUTAGES IN GOLDFIELD. THE
TIME OF THIS EVENT IS ESTIMATED.

0401 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LAS VEGAS MCCARRAN AP 36.09N 115.17W
05/09/2010 M49.00 MPH CLARK NV ASOS

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 49 MPH WAS MEASURED AT MCCARRAN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT AN ELEVATION OF 2180 FEET.

0408 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MOUNT LOGAN RAWS 36.35N 113.20W
05/09/2010 M48.00 MPH MOHAVE AZ MESONET

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 48 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE MOUNT
LOGAN RAWS AT AN ELEVATION OF 7605 FEET.

0410 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 03 36.79N 118.21W
05/09/2010 M66.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 3 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
66 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 4180 FEET.

0420 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 04 36.79N 118.17W
05/09/2010 M62.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 4 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
62 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 3838 FEET.

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DESERT NWR RAWS 36.58N 115.14W
05/09/2010 M64.00 MPH CLARK NV MESONET

DESERT NWR RAWS MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 64 MPH AT AN
ELEVATION OF 7120 FEET.

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST AREA 5 NORTH (NTS A13) 36.86N 115.96W
05/09/2010 M51.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 51 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE AREA 5
NORTH MESONET SITE AT AN ELEVATION OF 3164 FEET.

0432 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NELLIS AFB 36.24N 115.05W
05/09/2010 M51.00 MPH CLARK NV ASOS

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 51 MPH WAS MEASURED AT NELLIS AIR
FORCE BASE AT AN ELEVATION OF 1867 FEET.

0440 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 10 36.77N 118.16W
05/09/2010 M62.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 10 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
62 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 3868 FEET.

0442 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG INDEPENDENCE 36.80N 118.20W
05/09/2010 INYO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN INDEPENDENCE BY STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

0451 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DESERT ROCK AIRPORT 36.62N 116.03W
05/09/2010 M51.00 MPH NYE NV ASOS

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 51 MPH WAS RECORDED AT THE DESERT
ROCK AIRPORT AT AN ELEVATION OF 3230 FEET.

0451 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HORSE THIEF SPRINGS RAW 35.77N 115.91W
05/09/2010 M50.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 50 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE HORSE
THIEF SPRINGS RAWS AT AN ELEVATION OF 5000 FEET.

0455 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N LONE PINE 36.60N 118.06W
05/09/2010 E65.00 MPH INYO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER ESTIMATED 55 TO 65 MPH WINDS IN LONE PINE AT AN
ELEVATION OF 3737 FEET.

0514 PM NON-TSTM WND GST OPAL MOUNTAIN RAWS 35.15N 117.18W
05/09/2010 M45.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

OPAL MOUNTAIN RAWS MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 45 MPH AT
AN ELEVATION OF 3240 FEET.

0530 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 11 36.78N 118.13W
05/09/2010 M61.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 11 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
61 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 3761 FEET.

0550 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 09 36.77N 118.19W
05/09/2010 M66.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 9 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
66 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 3761 FEET.

0555 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 10 N INDEPENDENCE 36.94N 118.20W
05/09/2010 INYO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

A BIG RIG WAS BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 395 10 MILES NORTH OF
OLANCHA BY STRONG WINDS.

0620 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG OLANCHA 36.28N 118.00W
05/09/2010 INYO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN OLANCHA BY STRONG WINDS.

0641 PM NON-TSTM WND GST KANE SPRINGS RAWS 37.25N 114.71W
05/09/2010 M60.00 MPH LINCOLN NV MESONET

KANE SPRINGS RAWS MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 60 MPH AT
AN ELEVATION OF 4382 FEET.

0706 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HURRICANE RAWS 36.70N 113.21W
05/09/2010 M52.00 MPH MOHAVE AZ MESONET

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 52 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE HURRICANE
RAWS AT AN ELEVATION OF 5445 FEET.

0720 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 01 36.77N 118.28W
05/09/2010 M84.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 1 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
84 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 5697 FEET.

0750 PM SNOW GOLDFIELD 37.70N 117.23W
05/09/2010 M0.0 INCH ESMERALDA NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOW FELL BRIEFLY BUT DID NOT ACCUMULATE IN GOLDFIELD AT
AN ELEVATION OF 5690 FEET.

0830 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW ALIANTE 36.28N 115.19W
05/09/2010 E45.00 MPH CLARK NV NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE ESTIMATED 40 TO 45 MPH WIND
GUSTS AT AN ELEVATION OF AROUND 2280 FEET IN NORTH LAS
VEGAS.

0912 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NORTH LAS VEGAS AP 36.21N 115.20W
05/09/2010 M45.00 MPH CLARK NV ASOS

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 45 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE NORTH LAS
VEGAS AIRPORT AT AN ELEVATION OF 2268 FEET.

0912 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MOJAVE RIVER SINK 35.05N 116.08W
05/09/2010 M54.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 54 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE MOJAVE
RIVER SINK MESONET SITE AT AN ELEVATION OF 950 FEET.

1045 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BARSTOW-DAGGETT AP 34.85N 116.79W
05/09/2010 M48.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA ASOS

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 48 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE
BARSTOW-DAGGETT AIRPORT AT AN ELEVATION OF 1929 FEET.

1051 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SQUAW SPRINGS RAWS 35.37N 117.57W
05/09/2010 M55.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

SQUAW SPRINGS RAWS MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 55 MPH AT
AN ELEVATION OF 3661 FEET.


&&
THIS IS AN UPDATED SUMMARY OF REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT
AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FROM SUNDAY'S EVENT. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS
WERE LOCATED IN THE OWENS VALLEY NEAR INDEPENDENCE...LONE PINE AND
OLANCHA AND WERE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
$$

STACHELSKI/JENSEN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0505

ACUS11 KWNS 100732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100732
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-100900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN WY/SWRN SD/WRN AND CENTRAL NEB/FAR
NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 100732Z - 100900Z

ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL /SOME APPROACHING
OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES/ AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS ERN
WY/NEB PANHANDLE INTO SWRN SD DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FARTHER EWD INTO
CENTRAL NEB/FAR NRN KS WITHIN WAA REGIME...WHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING NEWD
ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO...WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS
FEATURE SHIFTS ENEWD INTO CENTRAL SD/NEB BY 12Z. SINCE LATE SUNDAY
EVENING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED WITHIN A
CORRIDOR ARCING SEWD FROM SERN WY THROUGH WRN NEB TO PART OF NWRN
KS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ZONE OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET
COUPLING /ENTRANCE REGION OF NRN PLAINS-OH VALLEY WNWLY JET AND EXIT
REGION OF A SWLY JET ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GREAT BASIN-FOUR CORNERS
TROUGH/.

THIS ASCENT AND THE NRN EXTENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGEST TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ENEWD TOWARD SWRN SD AND CENTRAL NEB. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WAA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALSO SUPPORT EXPANDING TSTM
COVERAGE OVER NEB/FAR NRN KS INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30-50 KT/ SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AND THUS PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

..PETERS.. 05/10/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...CYS...

LAT...LON 41490494 42270490 43050439 43400359 43230155 42789963
41949860 40989825 39969820 39699935 39580003 40190050
41360126 41560251 41090425 41490494

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100721
SWODY3
SPC AC 100720

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL EJECT
ENE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY. A WRMFNT WILL
TRANSLATE NWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MO VLY
AND CORN BELT WHILE A CDFNT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE PD
FROM KS TO W TX.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VLY...
MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NWD INTO ERN KS AND MO
BY WEDNESDAY AFTN BENEATH A SUBSTANTIAL EML. AFTER MORNING
CONVECTION MOVES ENE INTO THE UPR MS VLY BY AFTN...STRONG HEATING
AND GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MID/LATE AFTN TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE IN CNTRL KS/WRN OK.
INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR AS VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FCST TO BE AOA 45 KTS AMIDST 7.5 DEG C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES.
THUS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A MIXED-MODE OF CELLS AND LINEAR
SEGMENTS DURING THE EVENING...LIKELY ADVANCING ENE INTO PARTS OF NRN
MO AND SRN IA WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS. SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE MID MS VLY BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
SVR THREATS.

MEANWHILE...AS LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES MID/LATE EVENING
ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THE EJECTING UPR WAVE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BACKBUILD/DEVELOP SWWD ACROSS OK AND INTO W TX. WHILE STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY ORGANIZE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS...THEY WILL
LIKELY BECOME UNDERCUT AS THE CDFNT BEGINS TO SURGE SEWD OVERNIGHT.

..RACY.. 05/10/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100601
SWODY2
SPC AC 100600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID-LVL WAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS
IT HEADS ENE TO THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS REGION ON TUESDAY. NEXT
IMPULSE WILL QUICKLY DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A 590DAM HIGH BUILDING NWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. AT
THE SFC...THE LOW ASSOCD WITH THE FORMER WAVE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH A TRAILING CDFNT DECELERATING ACROSS THE OH VLY AND
SRN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. WRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL DEVELOP
NWD TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

...OH VLY...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY BE DRIVING A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE LWR OH
VLY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO THE
CNTRL/LWR GRTLKS AND UPR OH VLY/CNTRL APLCNS DURING THE AFTN.
OUTFLOW/CDFNT WILL CONTINUE SEWD TO ALONG THE OH RVR OR JUST BEYOND
BY AFTN AND QUESTION WILL BECOME WHETHER SFC-BASED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG IT DURING PEAK HEATING. DEAMPLIFYING STATE OF THE UPR
TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING OF THE LLVL CONVERGENCE/ INCREASING
CINH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST SUSTAINED STORMS. BUT...THERE IS A
NON-ZERO THREAT THAT HEATING ALONE MAY FORCE A STORM OR TWO AMIDST
MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG. COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST...BUT
SHOULD A STORM FORM...ROUGHLY 50 KTS OF 6KM SHEAR/200 M2 PER S2
0-1KM SRH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL WITH A BRIEF
TORNADO...DMGG WIND GUST AND HAIL.

...CNTRL-SRN PLAINS TO MID-MS VLY...
STALLING FRONT/OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NWD THROUGH OK TUESDAY
AFTN AND LLVL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPR-60S WILL SURGE N AND NW. STRONG HEATING AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
7.5-8 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE WEAK SFC RIDGING EARLY IN THE AFTN MAY
GIVE WAY TO NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW BY LATE AFTN. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING MAY WEAKEN CINH SUFFICIENTLY FOR A LOW
PROBABILITY OF STORM INITIATION ACROSS NW TX INTO CNTRL OK ALONG
NWRN PERIPHERY OF IMPROVING MOISTURE PROFILES. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR...STRONG CAPE/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL/LLVL
SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A SUPERCELL WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO.

MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...HOWEVER...IS FOR A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN
ELEVATED STORMS FROM NRN OK INTO PARTS OF KS...SRN MO AND NRN AR
ALONG AN ACCELERATING LLJ. MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE HAIL.

..RACY.. 05/10/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100600
SWODY1
SPC AC 100558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE KS AND ERN
OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN
KS...CNTRL AND ERN OK...WRN MO AND NW AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MS VALLEY AND OZARKS...

...REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK AND LONG-TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT
TORNADOES BECOMING LIKELY IN ERN OK AND SE KS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
AS AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ONGOING ON THE NOSE OF A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS ERN KS
WITH THIS CONVECTION BEING SHUNTED NNEWD AWAY FROM THE HIGH RISK
AREA AROUND MIDDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WELL-DEFINED MOIST AXIS AND
DRYLINE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WRN OK THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F ACROSS ECNTRL OK WHERE FORECAST SFC TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S F. THIS RESULTS IN A TONGUE OF
STRONG INSTABILITY FROM NRN TX EXTENDING NWD INTO NRN OK WITH MLCAPE
VALUES IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE INSTABILITY AXIS...A 75-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS NRN OK. THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA
REACHING THE 70 TO 80 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID SUPERCELL INITIATION AS STORMS GO
UP ALONG THE DRYLINE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA AT 00Z SHOWING 0-3
KM HELICITIES IN THE 450 TO 550 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING THE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR FROM WICHITA SWD TO OKLAHOMA CITY WITH THE CELLS BECOMING
TORNADIC TRACKING ENEWD ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR INTO THE TULSA AREA
AND INTO FAR SE KS BY EARLY EVENING. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST AT 50 KT SUGGESTING THE TORNADOES COULD BE LONG-TRACK
WITH STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH
RISK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. THIS
THREAT SHOULD EXIST SSWWD INTO NRN AND WCNTRL TX WHERE SUPERCELLS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES.

FURTHER NORTH IN THE CNTRL PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO
INITIATE NORTH OF SFC LOW IN CNTRL AND NRN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN KS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGESTING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUPERCELLS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
ERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING. TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A BOWING
LINE-SEGMENT MOVING INTO WRN MO DURING THE LATE EVENING.

..BROYLES/STOPPKOTTE.. 05/10/2010

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KCYS [100537]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 100537
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1137 PM MDT SUN MAY 09 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM TSTM WND GST 10 N CHEYENNE 41.29N 104.79W
05/09/2010 E80 MPH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE

NORTH YELLOWSTONE ROAD


&&

$$

GCLAYCOM

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KCYS [100507]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 100507
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1107 PM MDT SUN MAY 09 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1106 PM HAIL 12 W CHEYENNE 41.15N 105.02W
05/09/2010 E0.50 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM SPOTTER ON HAPPY JACK ROAD AT MILE MARKER 12


&&

$$

GCLAYCOM

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KCYS [100454]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 100454
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1053 PM MDT SUN MAY 09 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1052 PM HAIL 10 W ALBIN 41.42N 104.29W
05/09/2010 E1.75 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GCLAYCOM

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