MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0505

ACUS11 KWNS 100732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100732
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-100900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN WY/SWRN SD/WRN AND CENTRAL NEB/FAR
NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 100732Z - 100900Z

ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL /SOME APPROACHING
OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES/ AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS ERN
WY/NEB PANHANDLE INTO SWRN SD DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FARTHER EWD INTO
CENTRAL NEB/FAR NRN KS WITHIN WAA REGIME...WHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING NEWD
ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO...WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS
FEATURE SHIFTS ENEWD INTO CENTRAL SD/NEB BY 12Z. SINCE LATE SUNDAY
EVENING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED WITHIN A
CORRIDOR ARCING SEWD FROM SERN WY THROUGH WRN NEB TO PART OF NWRN
KS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ZONE OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET
COUPLING /ENTRANCE REGION OF NRN PLAINS-OH VALLEY WNWLY JET AND EXIT
REGION OF A SWLY JET ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GREAT BASIN-FOUR CORNERS
TROUGH/.

THIS ASCENT AND THE NRN EXTENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGEST TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ENEWD TOWARD SWRN SD AND CENTRAL NEB. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WAA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALSO SUPPORT EXPANDING TSTM
COVERAGE OVER NEB/FAR NRN KS INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30-50 KT/ SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AND THUS PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

..PETERS.. 05/10/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...CYS...

LAT...LON 41490494 42270490 43050439 43400359 43230155 42789963
41949860 40989825 39969820 39699935 39580003 40190050
41360126 41560251 41090425 41490494

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