Wednesday, September 28, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281957
SWODY1
SPC AC 281956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SE
TX...SRN LA...SRN MS...

.CHANGES TO PREV FCST...
1/ REMOVE LOW SVR PROBABILITIES IN N FL/SRN GA

...N FL/SRN GA...
HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER UPSTREAM MCS HAVE SUPPRESSED HEATING
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT TSTM COVERAGE
WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST LATER THIS AFTN AND THE SVR PROBABILITIES
HAVE BEEN REMOVED.


REMAINDER OF FCST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

..RACY.. 09/28/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LINGERING CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
EWD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE MT/SK BORDER TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
EARLY THURSDAY. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW WILL
WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER LOWER MI TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE SEPARATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SURFACE COLD JUST E OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE TRAILING FRONT EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TO THE GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN I-20 AND I-10.

...SE TX/SRN LA/SRN MS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND BENEATH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
3000-4000 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT /WELL S OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST CLOSED LOW/...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ASCENT PRECEDING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SE OK/NE TX
WILL SPREAD SEWD TO NEAR THE STALLED FRONT IN SE TX/LA BY THIS
EVENING....THOUGH SURFACE HEATING/MIXING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONTRIBUTOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...VA/MD/PA THIS AFTERNOON...
THE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT EWD TODAY...BUT THE STRONGER
MID-UPPER SWLY/SLY FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN LARGELY W OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR IN VA/MD/PA.
MEANWHILE...REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED MOIST PROFILES AND RATHER
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON MLCAPE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. GIVEN THE LAPSE RATE PROFILES AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 30 KT IN THE CORRIDOR OF THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY...THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS MARGINAL
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY LOW WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES APPEAR
WARRANTED.

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KAKQ [281936]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 281936
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0223 PM HAIL 1 NW BELLEVILLE 36.87N 76.44W
09/28/2011 E2.75 INCH CITY OF SUFFOLK VA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1100196

$$

LALEXAND

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KLIX [281926]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLIX 281926
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
226 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0206 PM HAIL 2 N VARNADO 30.92N 89.83W
09/28/2011 M1.00 INCH WASHINGTON LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL RAYBURN CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTE
ALONG HIGHWAY 21 NORTH OF VARNADO. NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS
STILL FALLING.


&&

$$

CBANNAN

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KJAN [281925]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 281925
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
225 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM TSTM WND DMG COLUMBIA 31.26N 89.83W
09/28/2011 MARION MS PUBLIC

POWER LINES DOWNED. QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE
SAME LOCATION.


&&

$$

DL

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KLIX [281925]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 281925
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
224 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0206 PM HAIL 2 N VARNADO 30.92N 89.83W
09/28/2011 M1.00 INCH WASHINGTON LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL RAYBURN CORRECTIONAL INSTITUE
ALONG HIGHWAY 21 NORTH OF VARNADO. NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS
STILL FALLING.


&&

$$

CBANNAN

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KJAN [281918]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 281918
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
218 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0143 PM TSTM WND GST COLUMBIA 31.26N 89.83W
09/28/2011 M56.00 MPH MARION MS EMERGENCY MNGR

MEASURED AT MARION COUNTY EMA OFFICE


&&

$$

DL

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KJAN [281910]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 281910
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
210 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM HAIL 3 WSW COLUMBIA 31.24N 89.87W
09/28/2011 E0.75 INCH MARION MS EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME SIZE HAIL IN FOXWORTH

0145 PM TSTM WND GST COLUMBIA 31.26N 89.83W
09/28/2011 E50.00 MPH MARION MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A TREE WAS DOWNED IN COLUMBIA


&&

$$

DL

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KJAN [281907]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 281907
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
207 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM HAIL 2 N HATTIESBURG 31.34N 89.31W
09/28/2011 E0.88 INCH FORREST MS EMERGENCY MNGR

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE REPORTED NEAR THE HIGHWAY 49 AND
INTERSTATE 59 INTERSECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF TOWN


&&

$$

BRYANT

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KCHS [281859]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KCHS 281859
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
259 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1242 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 W DOVER 32.58N 81.75W
09/28/2011 BULLOCH GA NWS EMPLOYEE

A NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 301 AND STATE ROAD 17.
TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100981

$$

DPB

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KAKQ [281858]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KAKQ 281858
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
258 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0228 PM HAIL WINDSOR 36.81N 76.74W
09/28/2011 M1.00 INCH ISLE OF WIGHT VA LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1100195

$$

LALEXAND

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 857

WWUS20 KWNS 281858
SEL7
SPC WW 281858
LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-290100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG A FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SRN MS INTO
SE LA...AND THE STORMS WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A
RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.


...THOMPSON

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KCHS [281857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 281857
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
256 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1248 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSW CAPTOLO 32.57N 81.63W
09/28/2011 SCREVEN GA NWS EMPLOYEE

A NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED A 10 INCH DIAMETER OAK BRANCH
DOWN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100983

$$

DPB

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KJAN [281856]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 281856
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
156 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM HAIL COLUMBIA 31.26N 89.83W
09/28/2011 E1.00 INCH MARION MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A FEW QUARTER SIZE STONES AMONGST LOTS OF PEA TO NICKEL
SIZE HAIL


&&

$$

BRYANT

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KLIX [281855]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 281855
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
155 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0146 PM HAIL DEXTER 31.07N 89.99W
09/28/2011 E1.75 INCH WALTHALL MS EMERGENCY MNGR

KLIX MAX VIL 62 KG/M2 AT 1822UTC THIS CELL.


&&

$$

24/RR

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KCHS [281854]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 281854
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
254 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 E DOVER 32.58N 81.66W
09/28/2011 SCREVEN GA NWS EMPLOYEE

A NWS EMPLOYEEE REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN ALONG STATE ROAD
17.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100982

$$

DPB

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KBGM [281840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 281840
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
240 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM FLASH FLOOD DRUMS 41.02N 76.00W
09/28/2011 LUZERNE PA EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CAUSED A MINE SUBSIDENCE WHICH COLLAPSED
PROSPECT STREET IN DRUMS.


&&

$$

DJN

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KAKQ [281820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KAKQ 281820
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 ESE DOWNTOWN RICHMOND 37.52N 77.45W
09/27/2011 CITY OF RICHMOND VA EMERGENCY MNGR

SHEET METAL AWNING FROM A ROOF CAME OFF OF A BUSINESS
ESTABLISHMENT ON JEFF DAVIS HWY. NO STRUCTURE DAMAGE WAS
DONE

0800 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE BON AIR 37.49N 77.51W
09/27/2011 U0.00 INCH CITY OF RICHMOND VA EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING AT TRAILER PARK DUE TO BLOCKED DRAINAGE

0805 PM LIGHTNING DOWNTOWN RICHMOND 37.53N 77.47W
09/27/2011 CITY OF RICHMOND VA EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES DUE TO LIGHTNING


&&

$$

LALEXAND

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KMOB [281730]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 281730
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG TENSAW 31.16N 87.80W
09/28/2011 BALDWIN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN, 1 ACROSS HIGHWAY 59 SOUTH BOUND NEAR TENSAW.
APPARENT OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS


&&

$$

DONF

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 281718
SWODY2
SPC AC 281716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STACKED CYCLONE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL FINALLY EJECT ENE ON THU AS
AMPLIFYING UPR SYSTEM...NOW OVER SRN CANADA...DIGS INTO THE GRTLKS
REGION. AT THE SFC...BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE APLCN MOUNTAINS WILL
BECOME REINFORCED AS THE MIDWEST DISTURBANCE ACCELERATES TO THE
ENE...MOVING TO THE ERN SEABOARD BY THU EVE. TAIL-END OF THE SAME
FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CNTRL TX.
MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM LK MI
SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THU AFTN. THIS FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...OH VLY AND SRN PLAINS THU NIGHT.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION NWD INTO NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...
EJECTION OF THE MIDWEST UPR LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
ASCENT/120+ METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS/ ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE THU
MORNING INTO THE AFTN. RESULTANT DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING FRONTAL
CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT BANDS OF CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS.
CLOUDS/PCPN WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...
PARTICULARLY N OF PA. BUT...LOCAL DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN
POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY TO MAINTAIN
LOW PROBABILITIES OF SVR WIND/HAIL. OTHERWISE... DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS.
PARTS OF THE REGION MAY NEED A SLGT RISK UPGRADE IN LATER OTLKS.

...MIDWEST...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE... AT
LEAST MID-50S SFC DEW POINTS COMBINED WITH HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE INTENSIFYING FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE
BY THU AFTN. EXPECT A FORCED-LINE OF CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS TO
FORM ACROSS LK MI AND ERN IL EARLY THU AFTN AND PROGRESS RAPIDLY ESE
INTO THE OH VLY BY EVENING. INCREASINGLY WLY LOW/MID-LVL FLOW OF
45-50 KTS WILL RESULT IN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH RISKS OF
SPORADIC/ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

...S TX...
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NOTED ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY MUCH OF CNTRL/SOUTH TX. IN THE MEAN...NWLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND A
PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY SETTLE TO A POSITION NEAR THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT BY PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK...A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS COULD PRODUCE DMGG WINDS AS
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS APPROACH 40-50 DEG WITH COINCIDENT WITH AFTN
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S-100F.

..RACY.. 09/28/2011

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2211

ACUS11 KWNS 281711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281710
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-281915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/SRN LA/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281710Z - 281915Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
STORMS DEVELOP/INTENSIFY WITH TIME. EVENTUAL WW ISSUANCE IS
POSSIBLE.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...BOTH INVOF A SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SERN TX/SRN LA COAST AND ALSO FARTHER N INTO SRN
MS NEAR THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT. THE CONVECTION IS INITIATING
WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING IS YIELDING MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES
NOW AS HIGH AS 3500 J/KG FROM SERN TX EWD ACROSS SRN LA.

AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...AND AS A COMPACT UPPER
LOW/VORT MAX SHIFTS SEWD OUT OF OK INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
WHILE PROFILER/VWP DATA AND MORNING RAOBS REVEAL MODEST FLOW ALOFT
-- AND THUS SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
THIS LIMITATION AND YIELD AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WW IS NOT
IMMINENT...INCREASING POTENTIAL MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 09/28/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 29149485 29219573 29819596 30829504 31449374 31599184
31749049 31288888 30638849 29618947 29399067 29639252
29749414 29149485

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KCHS [281656]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 281656
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1255 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 W DOVER 32.58N 81.75W
09/28/2011 BULLOCH GA NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN
NEAR HIGHWAYS 301 AND 17. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100981

$$

BDC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281631
SWODY1
SPC AC 281629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SE
TX...SRN LA...SRN MS...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LINGERING CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
EWD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE MT/SK BORDER TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
EARLY THURSDAY. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW WILL
WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER LOWER MI TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE SEPARATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SURFACE COLD JUST E OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE TRAILING FRONT EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TO THE GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN I-20 AND I-10.

...SE TX/SRN LA/SRN MS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND BENEATH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
3000-4000 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT /WELL S OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST CLOSED LOW/...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ASCENT PRECEDING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SE OK/NE TX
WILL SPREAD SEWD TO NEAR THE STALLED FRONT IN SE TX/LA BY THIS
EVENING....THOUGH SURFACE HEATING/MIXING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONTRIBUTOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...VA/MD/PA THIS AFTERNOON...
THE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT EWD TODAY...BUT THE STRONGER
MID-UPPER SWLY/SLY FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN LARGELY W OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR IN VA/MD/PA.
MEANWHILE...REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED MOIST PROFILES AND RATHER
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON MLCAPE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. GIVEN THE LAPSE RATE PROFILES AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 30 KT IN THE CORRIDOR OF THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY...THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS MARGINAL
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY LOW WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES APPEAR
WARRANTED.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 09/28/2011

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KJAN [281621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 281621
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1121 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 PM HAIL 9 N DECATUR 32.57N 89.11W
09/27/2011 E0.88 INCH NEWTON MS PUBLIC

FELL IN UNION


&&

$$

BRYANT

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KALY [281621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 281621
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1220 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1007 AM FLOOD MOUNT TREMPER 42.04N 74.28W
09/28/2011 ULSTER NY EMERGENCY MNGR

RT 212 CLOSED AT PLANK RD DUE TO FLOODING


&&

$$

FRUGIS

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KJAN [281604]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 281604
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1104 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HAIL PETAL 31.34N 89.25W
09/28/2011 M0.25 INCH FORREST MS EMERGENCY MNGR

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT PETAL HIGH SCHOOL


&&

$$

EC

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KEWX [281555]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 281555
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1055 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S ANDICE 30.77N 97.85W
09/26/2011 WILLIAMSON TX PUBLIC

POWERLINES DOWN ALONG RANCH ROAD 2338.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1100333

$$

AKF

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KEWX [281549]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 281549
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1049 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM TSTM WND GST SISTERDALE 29.97N 98.73W
09/27/2011 M60 MPH KENDALL TX PUBLIC

LARGE OAK TREE SNAPPED IN HALF AND TIN ROOF WAS PULLED
UP IN SISTERDALE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1100332

$$

AKF

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KTWC [281540]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTWC 281540
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
839 AM MST WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM DUST STORM PICACHO 32.72N 111.50W
09/27/2011 PINAL AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 12 INJ *** DUST STORM CAUSED ACCIDENT AT MILEPOST
214 ON INTERSTATE 10. EASTBOUND I-10 CLOSED. 13
VEHICLES... 12 INJURIES AND 5 TAKEN TO LOCAL HOSPITALS.

0415 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SSW PICTURE ROCKS 32.29N 111.27W
09/27/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

SWIFT WATER RESCUE AT MANVILLE ROAD AND RESERVATION
ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1100125 TWC1100126

$$

MINNICK

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KPHI [281519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 281519
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1119 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 AM FLOOD CLINTON 40.64N 74.91W
09/28/2011 HUNTERDON NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING ALONG MANY SMALL STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE
COUNTY.

0700 AM FLOOD GLEN GARDNER 40.70N 74.94W
09/28/2011 HUNTERDON NJ PUBLIC

FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

0815 AM FLASH FLOOD BRANCHVILLE 41.15N 74.75W
09/28/2011 SUSSEX NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

QUICK RISES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS NEAR BRANCHVILLE.

0830 AM FLOOD LEBANON TWP 40.73N 74.90W
09/28/2011 HUNTERDON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING ALONG HOFFMANS CROSSING ROAD.

1045 AM FLOOD NEWTON 41.05N 74.75W
09/28/2011 SUSSEX NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOME ROAD CLOSURES IN NEWTON DUE TO FLOODING.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100747 PHI1100748 PHI1100750 PHI1100749 PHI1100751

$$

KEK/MWG

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KRAH [281514]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 281514
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1114 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 W SEAGROVE 35.55N 79.85W
09/28/2011 RANDOLPH NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TWO 15 TO 24 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN ON NC 134 BETWEEN
STATE ROAD 127 AND 1118


&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101459

$$

MCLAMB

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KLWX [281448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 281448
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1048 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW SHANKS 39.32N 78.70W
09/27/2011 HAMPSHIRE WV EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE BLOWN DOWN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101953

$$

SMZ

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KBGM [281442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 281442
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1042 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM FLASH FLOOD WHITE HAVEN 41.06N 75.78W
09/27/2011 LUZERNE PA EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING OF ROADS IN THE WHITE HAVEN AREA.


&&

$$

DJN

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KBGM [281441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 281441
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1041 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM FLASH FLOOD BACK MOUNTAIN 41.34N 76.00W
09/27/2011 LUZERNE PA EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS REPORTED TO IMPACT NUMEROUS
ROADS.


&&

$$

DJN

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KBGM [281407]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 281407
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1007 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM FLASH FLOOD DRUMS 41.02N 76.00W
09/27/2011 LUZERNE PA EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NESCOPECK CREEK
FLOODING HOMES AND ROADS.


&&

$$

DJN

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KMOB [281404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 281404
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
904 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM LIGHTNING 5 ENE ORIOLE BEACH 30.41N 87.01W
09/28/2011 SANTA ROSA FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

2 HOUSES STRUCK BY LIGHTNING IN MIDWAY FL. JUST OFF HWY
98


&&

$$

DONF

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KGSP [281403]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 281403
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1003 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0928 PM TSTM WND DMG CONCORD 35.41N 80.59W
09/27/2011 CABARRUS NC EMERGENCY MNGR

PART OF A ROOF BLOWN OFF OF AN OLD CONVERTED TEXTILE
MILL.


&&

$$

KRENTZ

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KRNK [281357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 281357
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
954 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1217 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSE HUDDLESTON 37.12N 79.46W
09/28/2011 BEDFORD VA PUBLIC

TREES DOWN SOUTH OF HUDDLESTON ALONG ROUTE 630. HAIL ALSO
REPORTED BUT SIZE UNKNOWN.


&&

$$

JH

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KBGM [281355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 281355
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
955 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM FLOOD DRUMS 41.02N 76.00W
09/28/2011 LUZERNE PA EMERGENCY MNGR

NESCOPECK CREEK WAS FLOODING 25 HOMES IN DRUMS. THE
WATER LEVEL WAS 10 TO 12 FEET. WATER RESCUES AND
EVACUATIONS ARE TAKING PLACE.


&&

$$

DJN

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KRNK [281332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 281332
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
932 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0141 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 S KEYSVILLE 36.95N 78.50W
09/27/2011 CHARLOTTE VA 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY US-360 SOUTH OF KEYSVILLE.

0145 PM TSTM WND DMG WSW KEYSVILLE 37.04N 78.49W
09/27/2011 CHARLOTTE VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TWO TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 772.


&&

$$

JH

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KPHI [281314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 281314
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
914 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 AM FLOOD CLINTON 40.64N 74.91W
09/28/2011 HUNTERDON NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING ALONG MANY SMALL STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE
COUNTY.

0700 AM FLOOD GLEN GARDNER 40.70N 74.94W
09/28/2011 HUNTERDON NJ PUBLIC

FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

0815 AM FLASH FLOOD BRANCHVILLE 41.15N 74.75W
09/28/2011 SUSSEX NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

QUICK RISES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS NEAR BRANCHVILLE.

0830 AM FLOOD LEBANON TWP 40.73N 74.90W
09/28/2011 HUNTERDON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING ALONG HOFFMANS CROSSING ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100747 PHI1100748 PHI1100750 PHI1100749

$$

KEK/MWG

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KPHI [281258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 281258
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
857 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 AM FLOOD CLINTON 40.64N 74.91W
09/28/2011 HUNTERDON NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING ALONG MANY SMALL STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE
COUNTY.

0700 AM FLOOD GLEN GARDNER 40.70N 74.94W
09/28/2011 HUNTERDON NJ PUBLIC

FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

0830 AM FLOOD LEBANON TWP 40.73N 74.90W
09/28/2011 HUNTERDON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING ALONG HOFFMANS CROSSING ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100747 PHI1100748 PHI1100749

$$

KEK

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KAKQ [281255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 281255
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
855 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 ESE DOWNTOWN RICHMOND 37.52N 77.45W
09/27/2011 CITY OF RICHMOND VA BROADCAST MEDIA

PORTION OF ROOF BLOWN OFF BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENT ON JEFF
DAVIS HWY


&&

$$

LALEXAND

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281248
SWODY1
SPC AC 281246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FROM
SERN TX EWD INTO FAR SRN MS...

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL EDGE EWD THIS
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE AMPLIFYING
OVER THE N-CNTRL STATES. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE
PATTERN...VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT 50 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK
OVER IL/IND/NRN KY WILL ROTATE NNEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY TODAY
WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT GLANCING THE
REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ANALYZED ALONG N-S-ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER S-CNTRL
VA WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NWD TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH ABOVE-MENTIONED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT.

12Z SOUNDINGS AT RNK AND GSO INDICATE THAT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
WEAKENED SINCE 00Z...AND DESPITE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN
AOB 1000-1300 J/KG. THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY WEAK...THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS WILL RESIDE TO THE EAST OF THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
ATTENDANT TO OH VALLEY UPPER LOW. AND WHILE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO
WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL YIELD CYLCONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS...THE
OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR SUSTAINED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY THE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR. AS SUCH...ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.

...CNTRL GULF COAST...

VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER OK WILL TRANSLATE SEWD TOWARD THE REGION
TODAY...COMBINING WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
SURFACE FRONT TO FOSTER SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CO-LOCATION OF A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY YIELDING A
VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR MOST-UNSTABLE PARCELS WITH
CAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 4000-5000 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. MOREOVER...THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT /I.E. PW VALUES AOA TWO INCHES/ WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS OWING TO WATER-LOADING
EFFECTS.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 09/28/2011

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KRAH [281246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 281246
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
846 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSE RALEIGH 35.80N 78.63W
09/28/2011 WAKE NC TRAINED SPOTTER

A TREE COLLAPSED ONTO A ROOF AT 1335 COURTLAND DR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101458

$$

MCLAMB

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KBGM [281215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 281215
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
815 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM FLOOD COCHECTON 41.70N 75.05W
09/28/2011 SULLIVAN NY 911 CENTER

TIME ESTIMATED MUDSLIDE ONTO ROUTE 116


&&

$$

TAC

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KPHI [281134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 281134
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
733 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 AM FLOOD CLINTON 40.64N 74.91W
09/28/2011 HUNTERDON NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING ALONG MANY SMALL STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE
COUNTY.

0700 AM FLOOD GLEN GARDNER 40.70N 74.94W
09/28/2011 HUNTERDON NJ PUBLIC

FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100747 PHI1100748

$$

KEK

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KTFX [281052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281052
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
452 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 14 W SAINT MARY 48.74N 113.74W
09/28/2011 M43 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 57 MPH AT
GARDEN WALL.


&&

$$

NJL

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KPHI [281011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 281011
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
611 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 AM FLOOD CLINTON 40.64N 74.91W
09/28/2011 HUNTERDON NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING ALONG MANY SMALL STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE
COUNTY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100747

$$

HEAVENER

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KCHS [280854]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 280854
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
454 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0124 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE SHAWNEE 32.51N 81.38W
09/28/2011 EFFINGHAM GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

EFFINGHAM COUNTY 911 CENTER REPORTED THAT A TREE WAS
BLOWN DOWN ONTO CORINTH CHURCH ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100980

$$

04

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 280816
SWOD48
SPC AC 280815

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE SFC ANTICYCLONE
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL ENSURE DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

..DARROW.. 09/28/2011

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