MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2351

ACUS11 KWNS 220446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220445
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AR...N-CNTRL/NERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 894...

VALID 220445Z - 220615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 894 CONTINUES.

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY
PEAKED ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF WW 894 IN SWRN AR...AND MAY
STRUGGLE TO INCREASE FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL AR IN THE NEAR-TERM.
FARTHER SW...ELEVATED TSTMS DISPLACED 50-60 MILES W OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN NERN TX MAY EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE
BOUNDARY...WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WHICH
COULD WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE.

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1010 MB CYCLONE ALONG THE SERN OK/SWRN
AR BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING EWD AROUND 25 N HOT TO NEAR LIT.
QUASI-STATIONARY/SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED S/SWWD FROM 30 E
PRX TO 20 SE TPL. REFLECTIVITY AND VELOCITY SIGNATURES HAVE LARGELY
WANED WITH INITIAL SEVERE TSTMS INVOF SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS SWRN
AR. SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN AR INTO
THE LOWER 60S SUGGESTING THAT DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL REINTENSIFICATION.

FARTHER SW...ELEVATED TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL TX /TIED TO INCREASING
CONVERGENCE AROUND 850 MB/ SHOULD POSE A MARGINAL HAIL RISK IN THE
NEAR-TERM. WITH TIME...THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY
PROPAGATE/DEVELOP EWD NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WEAKEN/VEER AND
SHOULD LESSEN THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. STILL...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AROUND 50 KTS...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE
ACROSS NERN TX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GRAMS.. 11/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 33739480 34509438 34829354 34849317 34509277 33959266
33579323 32789418 31589517 31009610 30889709 31139747
31769724 32639589 33409515 33739480

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KLZK [220414]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 220414
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1014 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 PM FLASH FLOOD HEBER SPRINGS 35.50N 92.04W
11/21/2011 CLEBURNE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER FLOWING INTO BUSINESSES ON MAIN STREET.

&&

$$

CDALTON

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KLZK [220413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 220413
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1013 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 PM FLASH FLOOD WALDRON 34.90N 94.09W
11/21/2011 SCOTT AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL SPOTS ON HIGHWAYS 71 AND 28 ARE FLOODED IN AND
AROUND WALDRON. FLOOD WATERS REMOVED SOME ASPHALT FROM
ROADWAY ON HIGHWAY 28 WEST JUST NORTH OF WALDRON.

&&

$$

CDALTON

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KPIH [220412]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 220412
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
912 PM MST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0909 PM DENSE FOG 1 N MONTPELIER 42.34N 111.30W
11/21/2011 BEAR LAKE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY APPROXIMATELY 100 YARDS AT THE US-30,US-89
INTERSECTION IN DOWNTOWN MONTPELIER.

&&

$$

GWICKLUN

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KTFX [220357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 220357
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
857 PM MST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.61W
11/21/2011 M75 MPH TETON MT MESONET

HIGH WIND GUSTS STARTED AT 530 PM MST. 75 MPH RECORDED
AT 700 PM MST

&&

$$

SUK

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KOUN [220346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 220346
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
946 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0926 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 ENE FARRIS 34.27N 95.83W
11/21/2011 ATOKA OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

ATOKA POLICE DEPT REPORTS PORTIONS OF SAIN ROAD AND COLD
SPRINGS ROAD FLOODED AND WASHED OUT NEAR FARRIS.

&&

$$

MA

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KLZK [220345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 220345
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
945 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM FLASH FLOOD MENA 34.58N 94.24W
11/21/2011 POLK AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER WAS RUSHING DEEP ENOUGH ON MENA STREET TO FLOOD
SOME BUSINESSES.

&&

$$

CDALTON

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KSHV [220343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 220343
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
943 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N WINTHROP 33.85N 94.35W
11/21/2011 LITTLE RIVER AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON HWY 41 BETWEEN WINTHROP AND HORATIO.

&&

$$

25

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KLZK [220340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 220340
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
940 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM FLOOD BLUFFTON 34.90N 93.60W
11/21/2011 YELL AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

PARTS OF HIGWAYS 80 AND 28 WERE FLOODED DUE TO RIVER
FLOODING.

&&

$$

CDALTON

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KTSA [220333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 220333
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
933 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0912 PM FLASH FLOOD 8 SW HODGEN 34.76N 94.73W
11/21/2011 LE FLORE OK BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORT OF RVS BEING WASHED AWAY NEAR CEDAR LAKE.

&&

$$

JDS

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KMFR [220314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 220314
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
714 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0712 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE SELMA 42.26N 123.57W
11/21/2011 M0.52 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN AMOUNT SINCE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KTSA [220313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 220313
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
913 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM FLASH FLOOD TALIHINA 34.75N 95.05W
11/21/2011 LE FLORE OK PUBLIC

SEVERAL ROADS IN TOWN CLOSED OR FLOODED OVER. REPORTS OF
PEOPLE LEAVING HOUSES.

0901 PM FLASH FLOOD 8 SW HODGEN 34.76N 94.73W
11/21/2011 LE FLORE OK BROADCAST MEDIA

MULTIPLE ROADS ACROSS SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY
IMPASSABLE. WATER RESCUE UNDERWAY AT CEDAR LAKE AND
HONTUBBY.

0910 PM FLASH FLOOD OCTAVIA 34.53N 94.70W
11/21/2011 LE FLORE OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

MASSIVE FLOODING IN AND AROUND TOWN. HWY 144 CLOSED DUE
TO HIGH WATER. WATER RESCUE UNDERWAY.

&&

$$

JDS

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KFWD [220308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 220308
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
908 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG BELLS 33.45N 96.42W
11/21/2011 GRAYSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL POWER LINES AND TREES BLOWN DOWN IN BELLS.

$$

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KTFX [220259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 220259
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
758 PM MST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
11/21/2011 M77 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

77 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT LOGAN PASS.

0500 PM SNOW 5 SSE BROWNING 48.49N 112.97W
11/21/2011 U0.0 INCH GLACIER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

BLOWING SNOW ACROSS US-89 NEAR BROWNING CAUSING LOW
VISIBILITY.

0705 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
11/21/2011 M62 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

62 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT HEART BUTTE.

0746 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/21/2011 M76 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

76 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT DEEP CREEK. WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 56 MPH.

&&

$$

NJL

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KSHV [220251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 220251
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
851 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0842 PM TSTM WND GST IDABEL 33.90N 94.82W
11/21/2011 E70 MPH MCCURTAIN OK TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED WINDS AT 70 MPH. HAIL WAS ALSO
OCCURRING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. SIZE UNDETERMINED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

$$

25

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 894

WWUS20 KWNS 220236
SEL4
SPC WW 220236
ARZ000-OKZ000-220800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 894
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 835 PM UNTIL
200 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PINE BLUFF
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SFC-BASED/NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS HAVE EVOLVED ON SRN
FRINGE OF OTHERWISE ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS SERN OK/NERN TX THIS
EVENING. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TIED TO THE MID-LVL WAVE CONTINUES
TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SRN PLAINS...MESOLOW VCNTY SERN OK WILL
TRACK ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CNTRL AR THROUGH 08Z. AIR MASS
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT LLVL
SHEAR FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...SMALL-SCALE BOWS/LEWPS WILL
LIKELY GIVE DMGG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
MESOLOW.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.

...RACY

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KLZK [220226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 220226
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
826 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0759 PM FLASH FLOOD RUSSELLVILLE 35.27N 93.14W
11/21/2011 POPE AR TRAINED SPOTTER

PARTS OF HIGHWAY SEVEN...AS WELL AS PARKWAY AVENUE WERE
FLOODED WITH OVER A FOOT OF WATER.

0813 PM FLASH FLOOD RUSSELLVILLE 35.27N 93.14W
11/21/2011 POPE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

MOST MAJOR INTERSECTIONS IN RUSSELLVILLE CLOSED DUE TO
1-2 FEET OF STANDING WATER. OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAD
FALLEN IN THE LAST TWO HOURS.

&&

$$

CDALTON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2350

ACUS11 KWNS 220217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220216
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AR...FAR SERN OK...FAR NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 220216Z - 220345Z

ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN HEAVY RAIN...A
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP INVOF CYCLONE
TRACKING EWD FROM FAR SERN OK. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE BY
04Z IS 40 PERCENT.

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE AROUND 30 W DEQ WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING S/SWWD INTO NERN TX AND A QUASI-STATIONARY/WARM
FRONT ARCING EWD NEAR HOT TO PBF. TSTM CLUSTERS WHICH HAVE PRIMARILY
REMAINED ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE CYCLONE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES HAVE
EXHIBITED AN INCREASE IN WIND SIGNATURES VIA RADAR...AS WELL AS IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS /34 KT MEASURED AT KPRX/. WITH THE GREATEST
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S
JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW...WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AMIDST STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AOA 250 M2 PER S2/ MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THIS THREAT WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE EWD THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SWRN INTO CNTRL AR IN
CONCERT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

..GRAMS.. 11/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 33699524 34369489 34719448 34889395 34919334 34799273
34619246 34309247 33819261 33429315 33359395 33319448
33439510 33699524

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KMFR [220205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 220205
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
605 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0604 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW MERLIN 42.46N 123.49W
11/21/2011 M0.50 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

9-HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 6 PM PST

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KABQ [220050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 220050
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM HAIL 2 N GRADY 34.85N 103.31W
11/21/2011 M0.75 INCH CURRY NM NWS EMPLOYEE

DIME TO PENNY SIZE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1101521

$$

99

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220048
SWODY1
SPC AC 220047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM AR SWWD INTO ERN AND
CENTRAL TX...

...AR...SERN OK AND CENTRAL/ERN TX...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL AR SWWD THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL TX. THUS FAR...THE UPPER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE...NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TX
PANHANDLE...HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTION TO OCCUR PRIMARILY ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY ACROSS
NWRN TX AND INTO OK HAS WEAKENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... ESPECIALLY
WEST OF A TUL-ADM-SJT LINE...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.

THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN ERN TX HAS BEEN LIFTING SLOWLY NWWD THE
PAST FEW HOURS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER NRN
TX/SRN OK IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. EVENTUALLY THE STORMS
FROM SERN AR SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE WARMER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALSO...AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO
KS AND BECOMES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED... CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT IN NRN AR LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT SURFACE
BASED STORMS TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE/DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
AS IT BEGINS TO HEAD EWD...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER THREAT FOR WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NERN TX
INTO SWRN AR WHERE LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST AS SURFACE LOWS
DEVELOP AND LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT.

..IMY.. 11/22/2011

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KHNX [220012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KHNX 220012
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
412 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1056 AM SNOW 8 SSE TAFT 35.04N 119.40W
11/20/2011 U0.0 INCH KERN CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A VEHICLE STUCK IN THE
SNOW ON CERRO NOROESTE JUST EAST OF STATE ROUTE 166.

0730 PM SNOW PONDEROSA 36.10N 118.52W
11/20/2011 M10.0 INCH TULARE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW AGNEW PASS 37.73N 119.14W
11/21/2011 E9.0 INCH MADERA CA MESONET

SNOTEL ELEVATION 9450 FEET.

0800 AM SNOW BLACKCAP BASIN 37.07N 118.77W
11/21/2011 E10.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

SNOTEL ELEVATION 10300 FEET

0800 AM SNOW KAISER POINT 37.30N 119.10W
11/21/2011 E5.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

SNOTEL ELEVATION 9200 FEET.

0800 AM SNOW CHARLOTTE LAKE 36.80N 118.42W
11/21/2011 E5.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

SNOTEL ELEVATION 10400

0800 AM SNOW QUAKING ASPEN 36.12N 118.54W
11/21/2011 E9.0 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

SNOTEL ELEVATION 7200 FEET.

0800 AM SNOW CHAGOOPA PLATEAU 36.50N 118.44W
11/21/2011 E4.0 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

SNOTEL ELEVATION 10300 FEET.

0800 AM SNOW GRAVEYARD MEADOW 37.47N 119.29W
11/21/2011 E5.0 INCH MADERA CA MESONET

SNOTEL ELEVATION 6900 FEET

0800 AM SNOW CHILKOOT MEADOW 37.41N 119.49W
11/21/2011 E7.0 INCH MADERA CA MESONET

SNOTEL ELEVATION 7150 FEET.

0800 AM SNOW GREEN MTN 37.56N 119.24W
11/21/2011 E5.0 INCH MADERA CA MESONET

SNOTEL ELEVATION 7900 FEET.

0800 AM SNOW TAMARACK SUMMIT 37.17N 119.20W
11/21/2011 E9.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

SNOTEL ELEVATION 7550 FEET.

&&

$$

BARLOW

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KFWD [212322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 212322
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
521 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0519 PM FLOOD POTTSBORO 33.75N 96.67W
11/21/2011 GRAYSON TX AMATEUR RADIO

APPROXIMATELY 5" OF WATER ON SH 289 NORTH OF POTTSBORO
AND FM 120 WEST OF POTTSBORO

$$

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KMAF [212231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 212231
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
430 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0356 PM TSTM WND GST CARLSBAD 32.40N 104.24W
11/21/2011 M62.00 MPH EDDY NM ASOS

62 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED BY THE CARLSBAD ASOS.

0410 PM TSTM WND GST CARLSBAD 32.40N 104.24W
11/21/2011 E60.00 MPH EDDY NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AND NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST IN CARLSBAD.

&&

$$

LINDSEY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2349

ACUS11 KWNS 212146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212146
TXZ000-212345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 212146Z - 212345Z

THE THREAT FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM CNTRL INTO NERN TX...AND THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE A STRONG FRONT SLOWLY
RETREATING NWD OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS OCCURRING AS
INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF A PAIR OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INDUCE SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 TO 4 MB PER 2 HRS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN
NOTED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THUS FAR...OWING TO WEAK
VELOCITY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION FARTHER N ACROSS N-CNTRL TX NWD
INTO OK. HOWEVER...AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHS MAKE ADDITIONAL EWD
PROGRESS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 50-55 KT WILL CONDITIONALLY
PROMOTE A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH SVR HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AS IT
LIFTS NWD...OR EVOLVE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL SRH WITH SWD DISPLACEMENT FROM THE
BOUNDARY PER VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT...ALBEIT
MINIMAL...WILL BE CONFINED TO A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE SFC FRONT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION/COVERAGE...THE NEED
FOR A WW IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN.. 11/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 32549426 31779511 30729647 30499754 31249806 32399779
33139713 33549631 33699554 33679486 33239424 32549426

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2348

ACUS11 KWNS 212144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212144
OKZ000-TXZ000-212315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO SRN/CENTRAL OK AND PARTS OF NWRN AND
NORTH CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212144Z - 212315Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN WAA REGIME LOCATED OVER
NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL TX...AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF OK THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SEVERE
STORMS...AND THUS A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER WRN
TX /S OF MAF/...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TX AND THEN NEWD THROUGH NERN TX TO CENTRAL-NERN AR AND WRN TN.
MEANWHILE...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP SINCE THIS MORNING AND WERE NOW AFFECTING
N TX TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK. THIS
ACTIVITY WHICH IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO
BE DEVELOPING WITHIN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA ALONG FAIRLY BROAD 30-35 KT SLY LLJ EXTENDING
FROM TX INTO OK WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY INCREASING ASCENT
WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 70-75 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SWRN TX TOWARD SWRN OK ATTENDANT TO THE NM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT IS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...WW IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO 1/ MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/
AND 2/ WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVERTURNING THE AIR
MASS AND REDUCING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

..PETERS.. 11/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33889603 33489738 33259862 33859960 34260028 34820064
35330003 35759886 35769723 35779593 35299516 34169512
33889603

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KOTX [212136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 212136
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
136 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0131 PM HEAVY SNOW S SANDPOINT 48.27N 116.56W
11/21/2011 M7.0 INCH BONNER ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE THIS MORNING

0131 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 NW NAPLES 48.60N 116.44W
11/21/2011 M4.0 INCH BOUNDARY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE THIS MORNING

&&

$$

JL

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KAMA [212103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 212103
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
303 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1046 AM HAIL BOOTLEG 34.83N 102.81W
11/21/2011 E1.00 INCH DEAF SMITH TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100473

$$

KJS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 212004
SWODY1
SPC AC 212002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN AR SWWD THROUGH S-CNTRL AND
SWRN TX. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PRIMARY
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF WRN THROUGH
N-CNTRL TX WHERE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE.
LATER THIS EVENING A PACIFIC FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL TX. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT DEVELOPING
STORMS ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL THROUGH
N-CNTRL TX WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF DEEPER ASCENT WILL BE GREATER AND
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LESS CAPPED. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT
EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN TX INTO SWRN AR WHERE LARGE HODOGRAPHS
WILL EXIST ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ.

..DIAL.. 11/21/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011/

...NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK...
A PAIR OF POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES...AND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM FOR FOCUSING THE
SEVERE THREAT IS A SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST TX. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST TX NEAR LBB. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND TRANSPORT OF ELEVATED MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD INTO REGION
WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THESE STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT CAPE ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUGGEST A RISK OF A
FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX.

...CENTRAL TX...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER MUCH CONVECTION WILL FORM
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL TX. FORCING THAT
FAR SOUTH IS RELATIVELY WEAK. ALSO...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
RATHER WARM AT THAT LATITUDE SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE HARDER TO ATTAIN. ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WOULD POSE A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF
TORNADO.

...EASTERN OK/AR...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO EASTERN OK AND AR. SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN IN THIS AREA...INCREASING THE RISK FOR
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211731
SWODY2
SPC AC 211730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX...THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...SERN STATES AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL MOVE ENEWD...REACHING THE
LOWER/MID MS VALLEY EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES AND OH VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE SERN
U.S. AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC.

...SERN TX...LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY...

THE SERN U.S. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND
DEVELOP NWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENEWD MIGRATING SSWLY LLJ THAT
SHOULD UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE SRN HALF OF
THE SERN STATES TO NEAR 60 OVER THE OH VALLEY. OWING TO EXPECTED
MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL AREAS OF MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDS...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MODEST. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF
DIABATIC WARMING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WHICH SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE FROM
1500 J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES TO AOB 500 J/KG
OVER THE OH VALLEY. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH QLCS THE DOMINANT MODE AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE
MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN 45+ KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AS IT CONTINUES EWD...AND STORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME
STRENGTHENING AS THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE IS
EXPECTED IN THE CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY
AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD EWD INTO NRN GA AND SC
OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 11/21/2011

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KLZK [211725]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 211725
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1125 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1116 AM FLOOD ALEXANDER 34.63N 92.44W
11/21/2011 SALINE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER IS OVER THE SERVICE ROADS AND PARTS OF INTERSTATE
30 AT MILE MARKER 128. ADJACENT AREAS OF HWY 5 ARE
FLOODED AND CLOSED AND THERE ARE PARTIAL LANE CLOSURES ON
INTERSTATE 30.

&&

$$

BJS

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KTSA [211704]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 211704
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1104 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM FLASH FLOOD NASHOBA 34.48N 95.21W
11/21/2011 PUSHMATAHA OK PUBLIC

MANY LOW WATER CROSSINGS WERE UNDER WATER AROUND AND
NORTHEAST OF NASHOBA. RELAYED FROM STORE OWNER FROM
REPORTS BY CUSTOMERS THIS MORNING.

0300 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 NW NASHOBA 34.51N 95.25W
11/21/2011 PUSHMATAHA OK PUBLIC

CRIPPLE CREEK WAS OUT OF BANKS FOR A SHORT WHILE JUST
WEST OF NASHOBA. BLACK FORK CREEK BANKFULL UNDER STATE
HWY 141 WEST OF NASHOBA. SEVERAL RURAL ROADS IMPASSABLE
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO HIGH WATER BETWEEN NASHOBA AND
CLAYTON.

&&

$$

SAA

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KAMA [211646]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 211646
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1046 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1046 AM HAIL BOOTLEG 34.83N 102.81W
11/21/2011 E1.00 INCH DEAF SMITH TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100473

$$

JACKSON

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KSEW [211644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 211644
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
844 AM PST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 AM SNOW 2 SE NORTH BEND 47.48N 121.76W
11/21/2011 M0.6 INCH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL IN THE PAST HOUR. WIND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH.

&&

$$

GRUB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211623
SWODY1
SPC AC 211621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK/AR/LA...

...NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK...
A PAIR OF POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES...AND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM FOR FOCUSING THE
SEVERE THREAT IS A SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST TX. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST TX NEAR LBB. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND TRANSPORT OF ELEVATED MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD INTO REGION
WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THESE STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT CAPE ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUGGEST A RISK OF A
FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX.

...CENTRAL TX...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER MUCH CONVECTION WILL FORM
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL TX. FORCING THAT
FAR SOUTH IS RELATIVELY WEAK. ALSO...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
RATHER WARM AT THAT LATITUDE SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE HARDER TO ATTAIN. ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WOULD POSE A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF
TORNADO.

...EASTERN OK/AR...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO EASTERN OK AND AR. SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN IN THIS AREA...INCREASING THE RISK FOR
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..HART/COHEN.. 11/21/2011

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KLUB [211553]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 211553
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
953 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0943 AM HAIL 4 NE ABERNATHY 33.87N 101.80W
11/21/2011 E1.00 INCH HALE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100250

$$

JDV

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KDLH [211549]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDLH 211549
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
949 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM SNOW FORT RIPLEY 46.17N 94.36W
11/19/2011 M1.3 INCH CROW WING MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0330 PM SNOW DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
11/19/2011 M1.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN NWS EMPLOYEE

MEASURED IN WEST DULUTH. STILL SNOWING.

0350 PM SNOW 4 W HINCKLEY 46.01N 93.02W
11/19/2011 M12.0 INCH PINE MN PUBLIC

0415 PM SNOW ASHLAND 46.58N 90.87W
11/19/2011 M6.0 INCH ASHLAND WI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0415 PM SNOW HIGH BRIDGE 46.39N 90.74W
11/19/2011 M12.0 INCH ASHLAND WI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

7 TO 8 MILE WIDE STRETCH OF 10-12 INCHES OF SNOW. STILL
SNOWING HEAVILY.

0435 PM SNOW 6 NW DULUTH 46.84N 92.21W
11/19/2011 M0.1 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

NEAR AIRPORT. SNOWING VERY LIGHTLY

0440 PM SNOW 2 NW MELLEN 46.34N 90.69W
11/19/2011 M6.0 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING HEAVILY.

0510 PM SNOW 2 E BRUNO 46.28N 92.63W
11/19/2011 M5.0 INCH PINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM SNOW ASKOV 46.19N 92.78W
11/19/2011 M7.0 INCH PINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM SNOW ASHLAND 46.58N 90.87W
11/19/2011 M6.0 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0540 PM SNOW HAWTHORNE 46.50N 91.86W
11/19/2011 M5.0 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0555 PM SNOW GORDON 46.25N 91.80W
11/19/2011 M7.0 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0625 PM SNOW 1 S PHILLIPS 45.68N 90.40W
11/19/2011 M3.0 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0640 PM SNOW 18 E HINCKLEY 46.01N 92.56W
11/19/2011 M11.0 INCH PINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 PM SNOW 1 WNW ASHLAND 46.59N 90.89W
11/19/2011 M8.3 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0710 PM SNOW SHELL LAKE 45.74N 91.90W
11/19/2011 M4.0 INCH WASHBURN WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0722 PM SNOW 7 ESE SUPERIOR 46.66N 91.92W
11/19/2011 M1.7 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0722 PM SNOW WEBB LAKE 46.01N 92.13W
11/19/2011 M8.3 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

0730 PM SNOW MASON 46.44N 91.06W
11/19/2011 M10.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 PM SNOW HAYWARD 46.01N 91.48W
11/19/2011 M6.0 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 PM SNOW 8 S HAYWARD 45.89N 91.48W
11/19/2011 M4.0 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 PM SNOW 4 N GRANTSBURG 45.84N 92.68W
11/19/2011 M4.5 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0815 PM SNOW BENNETT 46.45N 91.85W
11/19/2011 M4.7 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0815 PM SNOW MELLEN 46.32N 90.66W
11/19/2011 M11.0 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

0855 PM SNOW SAXON 46.49N 90.42W
11/19/2011 M12.0 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

0914 PM SNOW ASKOV 46.19N 92.78W
11/19/2011 M6.5 INCH PINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

0924 PM SNOW MOOSE LAKE 46.45N 92.77W
11/19/2011 M2.0 INCH CARLTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

0924 PM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
11/19/2011 M10.5 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

1100 PM SNOW PARK FALLS 45.93N 90.45W
11/19/2011 M3.0 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

DELAYED REPORT

1100 PM SNOW 11 E SOLON SPRINGS 46.35N 91.59W
11/19/2011 M8.4 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

DELAYED REPORT FROM BARNES WISCONSIN.

0548 AM SNOW MAPLE 46.59N 91.72W
11/20/2011 M5.0 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW MONTREAL 46.43N 90.24W
11/20/2011 M7.0 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW OULU 46.63N 91.53W
11/20/2011 M4.5 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 5 SW PHILLIPS 45.64N 90.47W
11/20/2011 M2.0 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 12 N ISLE 46.32N 93.46W
11/20/2011 M1.7 INCH AITKIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0830 AM SNOW 3 W CLAM LAKE 46.16N 90.98W
11/20/2011 M6.1 INCH BAYFIELD WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0830 AM SNOW EXELAND 45.67N 91.24W
11/20/2011 M2.8 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 AM SNOW WINTER 45.82N 91.01W
11/20/2011 M2.7 INCH SAWYER WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0830 AM SNOW HERTEL 45.81N 92.18W
11/20/2011 M4.0 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 AM SNOW 7 NW BRAINERD 46.43N 94.30W
11/20/2011 M1.0 INCH CROW WING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0910 AM SNOW SOLON SPRINGS 46.35N 91.82W
11/20/2011 M6.6 INCH DOUGLAS WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0910 AM SNOW 3 NE CABLE 46.23N 91.26W
11/20/2011 M6.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0910 AM SNOW MARENGO 46.42N 90.82W
11/20/2011 M8.0 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0910 AM SNOW 5 S HERBSTER 46.76N 91.26W
11/20/2011 M3.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0910 AM SNOW 2 W BENNETT 46.45N 91.89W
11/20/2011 E8.0 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

1015 AM SNOW BENOIT 46.50N 91.08W
11/20/2011 M10.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KK

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KDLH [211543]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 211543
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
942 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM SNOW 11 E SOLON SPRINGS 46.35N 91.59W
11/19/2011 M8.4 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

DELAYED REPORT FROM BARNES WISCONSIN.

1100 PM SNOW PARK FALLS 45.93N 90.45W
11/19/2011 M3.0 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

DELAYED REPORT

&&

$$

KK

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KABR [211529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 211529
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
929 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM SNOW REE HEIGHTS 44.52N 99.20W
11/19/2011 M6.0 INCH HAND SD CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100127

$$

NWS ABR

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2347

ACUS11 KWNS 211504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211503
TXZ000-OKZ000-211600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0903 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211503Z - 211600Z

SHOWERS WITH TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN/NWRN TX...DEVELOPING ENEWD
INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TX AND SWRN/SRN OK. GIVEN THAT THESE
STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...AND THUS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
ANY INCREASE IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORM INTENSITIES THAT WOULD WARRANT
A WATCH ISSUANCE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH
AZ/NWRN MEXICO INTO NM THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG ASCENT EVIDENT IN
THE COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM
AND ADJACENT MEXICO. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED TSTMS HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER WEST CENTRAL TX NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM SW...CENTRAL INTO NE TX AND AR. THIS LATTER ACTIVITY
WAS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY WAA AS A SLY LLJ CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE SWRN STATES TROUGH.

STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AS
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT MIDLEVEL JET EMERGES INTO THE
PLAINS WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. AN INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER ASCENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANDING
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS DEVELOPING/SPREADING
ENEWD. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-50 KT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A
THREAT FOR HAIL...GIVEN THE STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..PETERS.. 11/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 32110092 32620187 33380205 34500203 35300064 35709901
35559804 34639775 33579752 32869762 32529893 32110092

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KLUB [211459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 211459
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
858 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0858 AM HAIL SMYER 33.59N 102.16W
11/21/2011 E1.00 INCH HOCKLEY TX POST OFFICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100249

$$

JDV

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KLZK [211352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 211352
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
752 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0734 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 WNW DOWNTOWN LITTLE 34.79N 92.40W
11/21/2011 M5.20 INCH PULASKI AR TRAINED SPOTTER

5.20 INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT THROUGH 7AM AT RAHLING AND
CHENAL IN WEST LITTLE ROCK

&&

$$

BJS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211258
SWODY1
SPC AC 211256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR CENTRAL/N TX ACROSS SRN/ERN OK INTO WRN/CENTRAL AR...

...TX/OK/AR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW BAJA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY WILL PROGRESS GENERALLY EWD TO W TX BY THIS EVENING...AND
CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS N TX/OK/KS OVERNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH...A SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS HAS SPREAD SWD INTO
CENTRAL AR AND NE/CENTRAL TX. THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY
WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER ACROSS TX/OK...AND
NOTEWORTHY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT AS THE
MIDLEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO PHASE MORE CLEARLY WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS AR.

LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW AND WAA WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/N TX IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
DEWPOINTS OF 68-72 F S OF THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SATURATION IN
THE DEVELOPING WAA REGIME...AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM
WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY...IN
COMBINATION WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL. THE HAIL RISK IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW TX...AND THEN SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE
FRONT IS MORE UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AT LEAST WEAK CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED N OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN THE ANAFRONTAL FLOW REGIME. IF STORMS DO FORM AND MOVE
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
TORNADO RISK...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF STORMS BASED NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG
FRONT WILL PERSIST NEAR THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NE TX
INTO AR...AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TX.

..THOMPSON/JIRAK.. 11/21/2011

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KOHX [211240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 211240
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
639 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0614 AM LIGHTNING 6 ENE SPRING HILL 35.78N 86.82W
11/21/2011 WILLIAMSON TN COUNTY OFFICIAL

PUBLIC SAFETY OFFICIAL REPORTED LIGHTNING STRIKING A
HOUSE RESULTING IN A FIRE AT BETHESDA RD AND JD BENNET
RD.

&&

$$

TBOUCHER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2346

ACUS11 KWNS 210941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210940
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-211115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...WRN AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210940Z - 211115Z

AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NE AR AND WRN TO MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINAL AND NO WW IS ANTICIPATED.

TWO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM ERN AR INTO WRN
TN ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE
ARKLATEX. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED 45 TO 55 KT
MID-LEVEL JET IS PRESENT JUST UPSTREAM AND IS LIKELY HELPING THE
STORMS TO BE MAINTAINED EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER FLOW NEAR THE SFC AND A
RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY REDUCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE DOWNBURSTS IN SPITE OF A 40 KT EWD MOTION. FOR THIS
REASON...ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IF THE
BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS CAN REMAIN SUSTAINED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 11/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 36218651 36178836 35519068 35049096 34729081 34599044
34778902 34858750 35208672 36218651

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KOHX [210919]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 210919
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
319 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM HAIL 8 SW SPRINGFIELD 36.42N 86.98W
11/21/2011 E0.75 INCH ROBERTSON TN TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED IN COOPERTOWN

&&

$$

MRICHARD

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210910
SWOD48
SPC AC 210909

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
STG COLD FROPA IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/ERN CONUS
TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE TO SUPPORT SVR CONVECTION THROUGH
DAY-4/24TH-25TH. BY THEN...NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE CA COAST AND NRN BAJA. SYSTEM RESULTS FROM
PHASING OF MAINLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS NOW OVER ERN
SIBERIA...BERING SEA AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL PAC...WHERE SUBTLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SAMPLING/INTEGRATION OF THESE FEATURES LIKELY
CONTRIBUTES TO VARIATIONS A FEW DAYS OUT. TRACK/AMPLITUDE PROGS
DIVERGE MARKEDLY OVER SWRN/S-CENTRAL CONUS DAY-4...BECOMING EXTREME
DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. BY DAY-6/26TH-27TH...OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL
MODEL USES REINFORCING SPEED/VORTICITY MAXIMA TO DEVELOP
HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM MN TO NWRN GULF...WHILE WEAKER SRN-NRN
STREAM PHASING IN ECMWF YIELDS RETROGRADING/CUT-OFF LOW OVER NWRN
MEX. MREF SOLUTIONS COVER THAT FULL SPECTRUM AND MORE.
THEREFORE...WHILE SVR EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN
CONUS DAYS 5-7...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO DRAW OUTLOOK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 11/21/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210819
SWODY3
SPC AC 210818

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CA SHOULD MOVE
ENEWD ACROSS OH VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS...PHASING WITH
NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND
BEGINNING OF PERIOD AND EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MS. TROUGH SHOULD
MOVE OFFSHORE MOST OF ATLC COAST EXCEPT NEW ENGLAND DURING
24/00Z-24/06Z TIME FRAME.

RELATED SFC CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC
REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN PERIOD...WHILE TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSSES APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT. FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
JUST AHEAD OF MID-UPPER TROUGH.

...MID-ATLANTIC...TIDEWATER AND COASTAL PLAIN...
BAND OF MOSTLY LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS PROBABLE INVOF SFC COLD
FRONT...WITH CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS.
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL IN NATURE...STG
DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM TIDEWATER AREA
NWD. MEANWHILE...WEAK LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
BUOYANCY...MORE SO FROM VA NWD THAN OVER CAROLINAS/GA. FRONTAL
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ARE MESOSCALE IN NATURE...BUT STILL
CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING WHETHER FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL PRIOR TO FROPA IN
MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. SPECTRAL INDICATES NO...BUT REPRESENTS
FAST OUTLIER COMPARED TO OPERATIONAL NAM AND BULK OF SREF MEMBERS.
EVEN WITH SLOWER CONSENSUS FROPA...STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING
WILL REMAIN WELL NE OF FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHILE MOVING
AWAY...RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL WLY COMPONENT TO PREFRONTAL SFC
WINDS...AND ACCORDINGLY REDUCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/CONVERGENCE. GIVEN
THESE CAVEATS...WILL INTRODUCE JUST MRGL UNCONDITIONAL SVR
PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 11/21/2011

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KPAH [210641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 210641
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1241 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1240 AM HAIL EVANSVILLE 37.98N 87.54W
11/21/2011 E0.75 INCH VANDERBURGH IN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DLL

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KPAH [210633]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 210633
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1233 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1216 AM HAIL UNIONTOWN 37.77N 87.93W
11/21/2011 E1.00 INCH UNION KY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DLL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210628
SWODY2
SPC AC 210626

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN GULF COAST
TO SRN APPALACHIANS AND OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY FROM NRN CA SWD ACROSS SRN CA OFFSHORE WATERS -- IS FCST TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS SWRN CONUS AND SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DAY-1. BY
22/12Z...TROUGH SHOULD ASSUME POSITIVE TILT FROM ERN KS TO W-CENTRAL
TX...IN STG AGREEMENT WITH PAST FEW RUNS OF OPERATIONAL PROGS AND
SREF CONSENSUS THAT...IN TURN...HAVE AGREED WELL WITH EACH OTHER.
MODELS DIVERGE WITH SHAPE/AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY DAY-2...BUT
REMAIN IN GEN AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH POSITION FROM LM/LOWER MI AREA
TO N-CENTRAL TX BY 23/00Z. BY END OF PERIOD...TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND
FROM LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS MS...ITS NRN PERIPHERY PHASING
WITH NRN-STREAM TROUGH NOW LOCATED OFFSHORE PAC NW COAST.

AT SFC...STG COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 21/05Z FROM LOWER OH VALLEY
SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR...CENTRAL TX BETWEEN ACT-CLL...BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS SRN HILL COUNTRY AND SERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION TO NEAR DRT. FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY OVER N TX DURING DAY-1...DEEPENING AND MOVING NEWD ACROSS
SERN MO BY 22/12Z. LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MOST OF
PERIOD...REACHING INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC/NRN APPALACHIANS REGION BY
END OF PERIOD. BY 23/00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM INDIANA/OH
LOW SWWD NEAR MEM-CRP LINE. BY 23/12Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL/ERN PA SWWD DOWN APPALACHIANS...ACROSS NRN GA...TO SWRN AL
AND NWRN GULF.

...CENTRAL/WRN GULF COAST TO SRN APPALACHIANS AND OH VALLEY...
BAND OF TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT START OF PERIOD INVOF SFC COLD
FRONT...BACKBUILDING THROUGH MORNING TOWARD TX GULF COASTAL PLAIN.
ALTHOUGH FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW
PARCELS...RELATIVE MORNING MIN IN BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS AT LEAST MRGL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...CONCENTRATED
LOCALLY WITH EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS.

SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM MIDDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON...SHIFT EWD ACROSS DELTA/TN VALLEY REGION...AND
EXPAND NWD TO OH VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY SVR TYPE WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND...THOUGH TORNADOES AND ISOLATED HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. BAND
OF CONVECTIVE FORCING IS FCST TO ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS. SFC DEW POINTS
RANGING FROM UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NEAR I-10 IN MS/LA/AL...TO MID 60S
TN VALLEY...SHOULD OFFSET WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG. SOME WLY SFC WIND COMPONENT IS
PROGGED OVER THAT CORRIDOR...ALONG WITH 2-4 KM AGL LAYER CONTAINING
SOME BACKING WITH HEIGHT. STILL...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BE
LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SRH 150-300 J/KG AND POTENTIAL FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS...AS WELL AS CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS FOR ANY SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT THAT CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF
MAIN TSTM LINE.

CAPE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT OVER KY AND OH VALLEY
PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK...WITH MORE LIMITED TIME WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THETAE ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING TO DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEFORE FROPA. BUOYANCY ALSO WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND EWD
EXTENT AFTER DARK...ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO ERN AL/WRN
GA. THEREFORE SVR POTENTIAL IN EACH REGIME BECOMES MORE
CONDITIONAL...THOUGH STG FRONTAL FORCING CAN YIELD POTENTIAL FOR SVR
EVEN IN PRESENCE OF NEAR-NEUTRAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE
BELOW 500 J/KG. WITH RESPECT TO CINH...LOW-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD
LESSEN WITH SWD EXTENT...MAKING SVR POTENTIAL LOWER ALONG IMMEDIATE
COAST RELATIVE TO FARTHER N AND NE.

..EDWARDS.. 11/21/2011

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KPAH [210611]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 210611
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1211 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1159 PM HAIL 2 N EDDYVILLE 37.53N 88.59W
11/20/2011 E1.75 INCH POPE IL PUBLIC

&&

$$

DLL

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KPAH [210610]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 210610
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1210 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 PM HAIL EDDYVILLE 37.50N 88.59W
11/20/2011 E0.75 INCH POPE IL PUBLIC

&&

$$

DLL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210547
SWODY1
SPC AC 210545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TX/SRN OK EWD INTO CENTRAL
AR...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE CA/NV REGION...IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD INTO NM TODAY...AND THEN ENEWD INTO
ERN KS OVERNIGHT. THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A 70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX
MOVES FROM THE BASE ONTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

...TX/SRN OK EWD INTO CENTRAL AR...
THE SEVERE FORECAST THIS FORECAST WILL BE COMPLICATED BY THE
PRESENCE OF AN EXISTING COLD SHALLOW AIR MASS...WITH THE LEADING
EDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NERN AR SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF OK SWD
INTO CENTRAL TX TODAY AND GIVEN CONTINUED SLOW SWD MOTION OF FRONT
AND WEAK PRESSURE RISES...EXPECT FRONT IN CENTRAL TX TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE PORTION OF
THE FRONT IN AR/ERN TX MAY RETREAT SLOWLY WWD... POSSIBLY TO NEAR AN
AUS -HRO LINE BY EVENING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FRONTAL LOCATION...THE GREATER HEIGHT
FALLS/DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ELEVATED
STORMS FORMING EARLY IN THE DAY IN WRN TX...SPREADING RAPIDLY ENEWD
ACROSS NRN TX AND OK. DESPITE THE COLD BOUNDARY LAYER... MUCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS...WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. AS THE STORMS PROGRESS AND APPROACH THE WARMER AND MORE
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL
INCREASE FROM FAR ERN OK SWD INTO ERN TX. AS THE UPPER WAVE BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED...A SURFACE WAVE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN
AR MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN SHIFT NEWD INTO MO OVERNIGHT. ONCE THIS
HAPPENS...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING EWD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE LINEAR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT. INSTABILITY IS NOT FORECAST
TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS
AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS EVEN A
TORNADO OR TWO ...ESPECIALLY IN AR NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.

ALSO...DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE UPPER FORCING MAY BRUSH THE
STATIONARY FRONT IN CENTRAL TX. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB...BUT IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN
DEVELOP NEAR THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT...MLCAPES NEAR 1500
J/KG...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 60 KT AND 1 KM SRH AOA 200 M2/S2 WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE FORCING LIFTS NWD OUT OF THE
REGION.

..IMY/LEITMAN.. 11/21/2011

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KPAH [210540]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 210540
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1129 PM HAIL VIENNA 37.41N 88.89W
11/20/2011 E1.00 INCH JOHNSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

APPROXIMATELY 1/2 MILE EAST OF VIENNA

&&

$$

DLL

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KLSX [210516]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 210516
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1116 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1109 PM HAIL 5 E OLYMPIAN VILLAGE 38.13N 90.37W
11/20/2011 M1.00 INCH JEFFERSON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR I-55 AND HIGHWAY TT

&&

$$

BRITT

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 893

WWUS20 KWNS 210503
SEL3
SPC WW 210503
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-210500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 893 ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FOR PORTIONS OF

ARKANSAS
OKLAHOMA
TEXAS

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