SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212144
OKZ000-TXZ000-212315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO SRN/CENTRAL OK AND PARTS OF NWRN AND
NORTH CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 212144Z - 212315Z
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN WAA REGIME LOCATED OVER
NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL TX...AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF OK THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SEVERE
STORMS...AND THUS A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER WRN
TX /S OF MAF/...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TX AND THEN NEWD THROUGH NERN TX TO CENTRAL-NERN AR AND WRN TN.
MEANWHILE...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP SINCE THIS MORNING AND WERE NOW AFFECTING
N TX TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK. THIS
ACTIVITY WHICH IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO
BE DEVELOPING WITHIN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA ALONG FAIRLY BROAD 30-35 KT SLY LLJ EXTENDING
FROM TX INTO OK WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY INCREASING ASCENT
WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 70-75 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SWRN TX TOWARD SWRN OK ATTENDANT TO THE NM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT IS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...WW IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO 1/ MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/
AND 2/ WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVERTURNING THE AIR
MASS AND REDUCING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
..PETERS.. 11/21/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33889603 33489738 33259862 33859960 34260028 34820064
35330003 35759886 35769723 35779593 35299516 34169512
33889603
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