DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170038
SWODY1
SPC AC 170035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LIGHTNING WILL BE PREDOMINATELY LOCATED ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES HAS STABILIZED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF ROBUST
CONVECTION REMAIN...IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST AND
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM AND INTERIOR PACIFIC NW.

HAVE DROPPED LOW SEVERE PROBS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST AS STRONG
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SOON MOVE OFFSHORE. WHILE
STORMS MAY BRIEFLY LINGER BEYOND 01Z IT APPEARS PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL WANE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER POCKET OF LOCALIZED STRONG STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM WHERE WEAK SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MODEST NNWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEAR
ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS.

LONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER UMATILLA COUNTY ORE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE PDT AREA. LATEST WDSS-II HAIL ALGORITHM
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS HAIL APPROACHING GOLF BALLS MAY BE NOTED WITH
THIS STORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED ACROSS NERN ORE
AND SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..DARROW.. 08/17/2013

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KHGX [170033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KHGX 170033
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
733 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0456 PM TSTM WND DMG THE WOODLANDS 30.16N 95.49W
08/16/2013 MONTGOMERY TX PUBLIC

TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN AROUND THE WOODLANDS MALL AREA
AND RESEARCH PARK DRIVE.

0609 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W HOUSTON 29.77N 95.42W
08/16/2013 M63 MPH HARRIS TX PUBLIC

63 MPH AT THE MEDICAL CENTER AIRPORT JUST WEST OF
DOWNTOWN HOUSTON.

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG PEARLAND 29.56N 95.28W
08/16/2013 BRAZORIA TX TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER POLES DOWN AT FM 518 AND CULLEN IN
PEARLAND...ESTIMATED WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH FROM TRAINED
SPOTTER.

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG PEARLAND 29.56N 95.28W
08/16/2013 BRAZORIA TX TRAINED SPOTTER

FENCES DOWN AND TREES UPROOTED AND LAYING OVER ALONG
CULLEN BOULEVARD IN PEARLAND..

0637 PM TSTM WND GST PEARLAND 29.56N 95.28W
08/16/2013 E60 MPH BRAZORIA TX PUBLIC

ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS IN PEARLAND.


&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300158 HGX1300159 HGX1300160 HGX1300162 HGX1300161

$$

DH

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KCHS [170012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 170012
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
812 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNW SAVANNAH 32.06N 81.09W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF ATLANTIC AVE AND HENRY STREET FLOODED.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW SAVANNAH 32.04N 81.10W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF COLUMBUS STREET AND 55TH STREET
FLOODED.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNW SAVANNAH 32.06N 81.09W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA BROADCAST MEDIA

CAR DROVE INTO FLOOD WATERS UNDER RAILROAD BRIDGE NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF HENRY STREET AND EAST BROAD.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 WSW SAVANNAH 32.04N 81.10W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF HABERSHAM STREET AND 53TH STREET
FLOODED.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

VICTORY DRIVE FLOODED BETWEEN BEE ROAD AND BULL STREET.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 S SAVANNAH HISTORIC D 32.06N 81.10W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF DRAYTON STREET AND DUFFY STREET
FLOODED.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNW SAVANNAH 32.06N 81.09W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF ANDERSON STREET AND PAULSEN STREET
FLOODED.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 WNW SAVANNAH HISTORIC 32.08N 81.11W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF LATHROP STREET AND AUGUSTA AVE FLOODED.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 S SAVANNAH HISTORIC D 32.06N 81.10W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF DUFFY STREET AND DRAYTON STREET
FLOODED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300829
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300830
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300831
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300832
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300833
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300834
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300835
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300836
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300837

$$

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KHGX [170002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 170002
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
702 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG PEARLAND 29.56N 95.28W
08/16/2013 BRAZORIA TX TRAINED SPOTTER

FENCES DOWN AND TREES UPROOTED AND LAYING OVER ALONG
CULLEN BOULEVARD IN PEARLAND..


&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300162

$$

DH

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KCHS [162355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 162355
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
755 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM FLASH FLOOD SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

DOZENS OF ROADS FLOODED IN THE EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS
OF SAVANNAH. ONE CAR STALLED OUT AND WAS FLOATING IN A
FLOODED ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300828

$$

MTE

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KHGX [162356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 162356
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0637 PM TSTM WND GST PEARLAND 29.56N 95.28W
08/16/2013 E60 MPH BRAZORIA TX PUBLIC

ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS IN PEARLAND.


&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300161

$$

DH

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KCHS [162354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 162354
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
754 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 WNW SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.09W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER SURROUNDING HOMES UP TO PORCH LEVEL.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 WNW SAVANNAH 32.06N 81.10W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF BULL STREET AND 37TH STREET FLOODED.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.10W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF WASHINGTON AVE AND ABERCORN STREET
FLOODED.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SSW SAVANNAH 32.03N 81.09W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

WATERS AVE FLOODED BETWEEN VICTORY DRIVE AND 51ST
STREET.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.11W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF VICTORY DRIVE AND MLK BLVD FLOODED.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSW SAVANNAH 32.04N 81.09W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF PAULSEN STREET AND 60TH STREET FLOODED.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 WNW SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.10W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF BULL STREET AND 40TH STREET FLOODED.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 E SAVANNAH HISTORIC D 32.08N 81.08W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF GENERAL MCINTOSH BLVD AND PRESIDENT
STREET FLOODED.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSW SAVANNAH HISTORIC 32.06N 81.10W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

CAR STALLED IN HIGH WATER ON HENRY STREET BETWEEN EAST
BROAD AND EAST WALDBURG.

0720 PM FLASH FLOOD SAVANNAH HISTORIC DISTR 32.07N 81.10W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF I-16 AND GWINNETT STREET FLOODED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300818
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300819
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300820
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300821
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300822
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300823
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300824
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300825
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300826
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300827

$$

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KCHS [162354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KCHS 162354
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
754 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0921 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 WSW CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.95W
08/15/2013 U0.00 INCH CHARLESTON SC SOCIAL MEDIA

ASHLEY AVE NEAR CANNON PARK IS FLOODED BUT PASSABLE.

0927 PM HEAVY RAIN CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
08/15/2013 U0.00 INCH CHARLESTON SC SOCIAL MEDIA

SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE VIA TWITTER SHOWS PARTS OF THE
MARKET AREA IS FLOODED. ROADS APPEAR PASSABLE.

1006 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N MOUNT PLEASANT 32.82N 79.86W
08/15/2013 M2.72 INCH CHARLESTON SC MESONET

POINT PLEASANT MESONET SITE.

1006 PM HEAVY RAIN CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
08/15/2013 M2.29 INCH CHARLESTON SC MESONET

COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON OBSERVATORY.

1008 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
08/15/2013 M2.17 INCH CHARLESTON SC MESONET

DOCK STREET THEATRE WEATHERBUG STATION VIA LOCAL TV
STATION.

1010 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE WEST ASHLEY 32.78N 79.99W
08/15/2013 M2.14 INCH CHARLESTON SC MESONET

1012 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SW ADAMS RUN 32.66N 80.40W
08/15/2013 M3.14 INCH CHARLESTON SC RAWS

ACE BASIN RAWS.

1012 PM HEAVY RAIN SMOAKS 33.09N 80.81W
08/15/2013 M2.47 INCH COLLETON SC MESONET

1013 PM HEAVY RAIN BERKELEY COUNTY AIRPORT 33.19N 80.04W
08/15/2013 M2.73 INCH BERKELEY SC AWOS

1014 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 S MONCKS CORNER 33.12N 80.03W
08/15/2013 M2.55 INCH BERKELEY SC MESONET

1014 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW HUGER 33.16N 79.83W
08/15/2013 M2.10 INCH BERKELEY SC RAWS

1015 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNE SANGAREE 33.11N 80.08W
08/15/2013 M3.06 INCH BERKELEY SC MESONET

0442 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW VERNONBURG 31.94N 81.16W
08/16/2013 M1.54 INCH CHATHAM GA MESONET

OVER 30 MINUTES.

0455 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 W FORT MCALLISTER 31.89N 81.23W
08/16/2013 M1.85 INCH BRYAN GA MESONET

0537 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 E WHITE BLUFF 31.99N 81.11W
08/16/2013 U0.00 INCH CHATHAM GA TRAINED SPOTTER

WHITEFIELD ROAD ALMOST COVERED WITH WATER.

0544 PM HEAVY RAIN SAVANNAH AIRPORT 32.13N 81.20W
08/16/2013 M1.98 INCH CHATHAM GA ASOS

0555 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 SSW SKIDAWAY ISLAND 31.84N 81.09W
08/16/2013 M2.38 INCH CHATHAM GA MESONET

0655 PM FLASH FLOOD SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA TRAINED SPOTTER

PORTIONS OF VICTORY DRIVE... PRICE STREET AND 37TH
STREET IN SAVANNAH COVERED BY 1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER.
WATER UP TO THE PORCHES OF A FEW HOMES.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300800 CHS1300801 CHS1300802 CHS1300803 CHS1300804
CHS1300805 CHS1300806 CHS1300807 CHS1300808 CHS1300809 CHS1300810
CHS1300811 CHS1300812 CHS1300813 CHS1300814 CHS1300815 CHS1300816
CHS1300817

$$

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KHGX [162349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 162349
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
649 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG PEARLAND 29.56N 95.28W
08/16/2013 BRAZORIA TX TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER POLES DOWN AT FM 518 AND CULLEN IN
PEARLAND...ESTIMATED WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH FROM TRAINED
SPOTTER.


&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300160

$$

DH

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KHGX [162329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 162329
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0609 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W HOUSTON 29.77N 95.42W
08/16/2013 M63 MPH HARRIS TX PUBLIC

63 MPH AT THE MEDICAL CENTER AIRPORT JUST WEST OF
DOWNTOWN HOUSTON.


&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300159

$$

DH

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KTAE [162317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 162317
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
717 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 PM FLOOD 1 E NORMAN PARK 31.27N 83.67W
08/16/2013 COLQUITT GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOUTH HORNE STREET FLOODED IN NORMAN PARK. FLOOD WATERS
APPROACHING SEVERAL HOUSES IN THAT SAME AREA.


&&

$$

BOLDEN

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KPDT [162316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 162316
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
416 PM PDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL 2 WNW WAMIC 45.23N 121.30W
08/16/2013 E0.75 INCH WASCO OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM HAIL 3 WNW WAMIC 45.24N 121.32W
08/16/2013 E0.75 INCH WASCO OR PUBLIC


&&

$$

ML

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KMLB [162309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 162309
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
709 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0648 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SSE HAULOVER CANAL 28.70N 80.73W
08/16/2013 M41 MPH BREVARD FL OTHER FEDERAL

USAF 54 FT WIND TOWER 418 MEASURED WIND GUST OF 36 KT/41
MPH.


&&

$$

JRC

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KCHS [162257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 162257
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM FLASH FLOOD SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W
08/16/2013 CHATHAM GA TRAINED SPOTTER

PORTIONS OF VICTORY DRIVE... PRICE STREET AND 37TH
STREET IN SAVANNAH COVERED BY 1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER.
WATER UP TO THE PORCHES OF A FEW HOMES.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300817

$$

MTE

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KHGX [162248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 162248
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
548 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0456 PM TSTM WND DMG THE WOODLANDS 30.16N 95.49W
08/16/2013 MONTGOMERY TX PUBLIC

TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN AROUND THE WOODLANDS MALL AREA
AND RESEARCH PARK DRIVE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300158

$$

DH

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KJKL [162243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 162243
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
643 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM FLASH FLOOD BRODHEAD 37.40N 84.42W
08/16/2013 ROCKCASTLE KY EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER IS CURRENTLY RUNNING OVER HWY 2250 AS A RESULT OF
HEAVY RAIN.


&&

$$

JMWIX

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KABQ [162159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 162159
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
359 PM MDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL 30 S YESO 34.01N 104.71W
08/16/2013 E0.88 INCH DE BACA NM NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORT FROM OFF DUTY NWS METEOROLOGIST


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301329

$$

SHOEMAKE

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KCHS [162156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 162156
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
556 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 SSW SKIDAWAY ISLAND 31.84N 81.09W
08/16/2013 M2.38 INCH CHATHAM GA MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300816

$$

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KOUN [162145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 162145
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 AM HAIL 10 NNE DURHAM 35.96N 99.85W
08/16/2013 E1.00 INCH ROGER MILLS OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0335 AM TSTM WND GST 6 SSW HOLLIS 34.61N 99.96W
08/16/2013 E60.00 MPH HARMON OK PUBLIC


&&

$$

MBS

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KCHS [162144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 162144
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
544 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0544 PM HEAVY RAIN SAVANNAH AIRPORT 32.13N 81.20W
08/16/2013 M1.98 INCH CHATHAM GA ASOS


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300815

$$

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KCHS [162140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 162140
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
540 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 E WHITE BLUFF 31.99N 81.11W
08/16/2013 U0.00 INCH CHATHAM GA TRAINED SPOTTER

WHITEFIELD ROAD ALMOST COVERED WITH WATER.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300814

$$

MTE

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 162136
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-170312-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0217...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 162127Z - 170312Z

SUMMARY...A THIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED NEAR A SHARP
FRONTAL ZONE FROM NORTHERNMOST FL ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2"+ PER HOUR COULD CAUSE
REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG STATIONARY FRONT FOR MID-AUGUST WITH A
COUPLE EMBEDDED WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IS ACTING AS A FOCUS
FOR A SOLIDIFYING LINE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHERN FL
PANHANDLE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. RAINFALL RATES OF 2"+ PER HOUR HAVE
BEEN ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER RADAR WITHIN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE NARROW BAND. DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE FRONT IS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE ACROSS AL AND NORTHERN GA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2-2.25 INCHES ARE POOLING NEAR THE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS AIDING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. CAPE VALUES
REMAIN IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1000 J/KG AND LOW-LEVEL INFLOW --
SIMILAR TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE 0-3 KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR -- OF
20-25 KNOTS IS CONVERGING INTO THE BOUNDARY AT A NARROW ANGLE.
THE CAPE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SEEN IN THIS REGION ARE
NORMALLY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WHICH COULD
EXPLAIN ITS THIN LINEAR APPEARANCE ON RADAR IMAGERY. PROPAGATION
VECTORS ARE WEAK AND ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH
INCREASES THE FLASH FLOOD RISK.

THE 15Z AND 18Z HRRR RUNS HAVE DONE A VERY GOOD JOB DEPICTING THIS
FORMING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, AND FORECAST THE NARROW BAND TO
CONTINUE TO EXIST UNTIL 03Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEREFORE, THIS
MPD IS VALID UNTIL JUST AFTER 03Z. USED POSSIBLE OVER LIKELY
WORDING AS THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THIS REGION REMAIN
MODERATELY HIGH, ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 INCHES IN ONE HOUR AND 3-4
INCHES IN THREE HOURS, WHICH COULD BE EXCEEDED ON A REGIONAL BASIS
-- CONFIDENCE IN A MAJOR REGIONAL FLASH FLOOD EVENT IS BELOW
AVERAGE. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DEFINED AREA OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

ROTH

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON 31328110 30738330 30228660 30558677 31118545 31828338
32388129 32488004 31898014 31328110

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 162129
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-170312-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0217
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
528 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 162127Z - 170312Z

SUMMARY...A THIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED NEAR A SHARP
FRONTAL ZONE FROM NORTHERNMOST FL ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2"+ PER HOUR COULD CAUSE
REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG STATIONARY FRONT FOR MID-AUGUST WITH A
COUPLE EMBEDDED WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IS ACTING AS A FOCUS
FOR A SOLIDIFYING LINE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHERN FL
PANHANDLE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. RAINFALL RATES OF 2"+ PER HOUR HAVE
ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER RADAR WITHIN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE NARROW BAND. DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE FRONT IS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE ACROSS AL AND NORTHERN GA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2-2.25 INCHES ARE POOLING NEAR THE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS AIDING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. CAPE VALUES
REMAIN IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1000 J/KG AND LOW-LEVEL INFLOW --
SIMILAR TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE 0-3 KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR -- OF
20-25 KNOTS IS CONVERGING INTO THE BOUNDARY AND A NARROW ANGLE.
THE CAPE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SEEN IN THIS REGION ARE
NORMALLY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WHICH COULD
EXPLAIN ITS THIN LINEAR APPEARANCE ON RADAR IMAGERY. PROPAGATION
VECTORS ARE WEAK AND ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH
INCREASES THE FLASH FLOOD RISK.

THE 15Z AND 18Z HRRR RUNS HAVE DONE A VERY GOOD JOB DEPICTING THIS
FORMING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, AND FORECAST THE NARROW BAND TO
CONTINUE TO EXIST UNTIL 03Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEREFORE, THIS
MPD IS VALID UNTIL JUST AFTER 03Z. USED POSSIBLE OVER LIKELY AS
THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THIS REGION REMAIN MODERATELY
HIGH, ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 INCHES IN ONE HOUR AND 3-4 INCHES IN
THREE HOURS, WHICH COULD BE EXCEEDED ON A REGIONAL BASIS --
CONFIDENCE IN A MAJOR REGIONAL FLASH FLOOD EVENT IS BELOW AVERAGE.
HOWEVER, LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE DEFINED AREA OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

ROTH

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON 31328110 30738330 30228660 30558677 31118545 31828338
32388129 32488004 31898014 31328110

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KJAX [162127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 162127
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
527 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0523 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.29N 81.39W
08/16/2013 M42 MPH AMZ452 FL MESONET

THE WEATHERFLOW SENSOR AT THE JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER
MEASURED A GUST TO 42 MPH FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.


&&

$$

ARS

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KCHS [162055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 162055
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
455 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 W FORT MCALLISTER 31.89N 81.23W
08/16/2013 M1.85 INCH BRYAN GA MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300813

$$

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KCHS [162043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 162043
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
443 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW VERNONBURG 31.94N 81.16W
08/16/2013 M1.54 INCH CHATHAM GA MESONET

OVER 30 MINUTES.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300812

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1732

ACUS11 KWNS 162036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162035
NMZ000-COZ000-162230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO THROUGH ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 162035Z - 162230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH SERN CO AND ERN NM
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH EVENTS
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONGESTUS INCREASING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...AND A FEW
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN NM. MID-UPPER WINDS
ARE NNWLY WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR HEIGHTS TO RISE WHICH SUGGESTS
MID-UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH LIGHT SELY OR ELY
NEAR SFC WINDS VEERING TO NLY OR NNWLY 10-15 KT AT 500 MB. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE GREATER WITH EWD EXTENT INTO NM
AND WRN TX. HOWEVER...THE WEAK NLY WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST STORMS WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE FAR FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EXCEPT IF THEY CAN
DEVELOP A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO AUGMENT PROPAGATION EFFECTS.
NEVERTHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...PRIMARILY IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE.

..DIAL/KERR.. 08/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33260496 35370484 37560493 38640499 38620403 37200336
34030320 33200370 33260496

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KSJT [162032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 162032
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
331 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0527 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E FREDONIA 30.93N 99.08W
08/15/2013 E60 MPH SAN SABA TX TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300419

$$

DOLL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 162001
SWODY1
SPC AC 161959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN-SERN TX TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUED TO ADVANCE S/SWWD THROUGH S AND SW TX
THIS AFTERNOON...AND AT 1930Z THIS FEATURE EXTENDED FROM
APPROXIMATELY 60 S KCLL TO 45 NE KCOT TO 15 SW KDRT INTO SOUTHWEST
TX TO THE W/SW OF THE PECOS RIVER. A PORTION OF CENTRAL TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE LOW /5 PERCENT/ SEVERE WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES...AS THE
PRESENCE OF INCREASED SURFACE BASED INHIBITION SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA.

FARTHER NW...CONVECTION INITIATION HAS BEEN GREATEST ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN /SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS OF NM/.
APPARENT SUBSIDENCE /PER DRYING TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SERN OK/ARKLATEX REGION SEEMS TO BE INHIBITING CU/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT E OF THE MTNS THUS FAR. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR OVER THE SRN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUGGEST ANY STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...SOUTHEAST...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730.

...ORE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731.

..PETERS.. 08/16/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013/

CORRECTED HAIL PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH THE CREST OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF A SOUTHERN
PLATEAU SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER MAY FLATTEN SOME LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED...BUT WEAK TO MODEST IN
STRENGTH...THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...DIGGING INTO BASE OF LARGER SCALE
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A
WEAK DEEP LAYER LOW EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...WITHIN A BELT OF LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW
TO THE NORTH...ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...WHILE ANOTHER GRADUALLY TURNS
EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER DEVELOPMENTS...SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL
COOLING AND DRYING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S...IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE NOW CURVING
ACROSS SOUTH ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL AREAS. HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES OR SO/ IS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA AND THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAIN. BUT AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE LINGERS WITHIN AN
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WARM AND
DEEPLY MIXED AIR EMERGING FROM THE PLATEAU REGION REMAIN QUITE
STEEP.

...SOUTHEAST...
IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION NOW SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW ALREADY APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY STILL APPEARS TO EXIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS BECOMING MODERATELY LARGE. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERE APPEARS AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AIDED BY HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT
THE ENVIRONMENT LIKELY WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE 30+ KT
NORTHERLY 500 MB FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR.

...OREGON...
MODESTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
THE EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OR
TWO STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS MAY NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...THOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR ONLY MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

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KSJT [161958]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 161958
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
257 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM TSTM WND GST 6 SSE ELBERT 33.19N 98.95W
08/15/2013 E60 MPH THROCKMORTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300418

$$

DOLL

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KFFC [161954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KFFC 161954
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
352 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 S CAMP COLEMAN LAKE 34.62N 83.87W
08/11/2013 WHITE GA EMERGENCY MNGR

THE WHITE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED THE NORTH
GEORGIA ZOO NEAR CAMP COLEMAN LAKE OR AROUND 6 MILES WNW
OF CLEVELAND WAS FLOODED BY GLADE CREEK. THE ANIMALS WERE
EVACUATED. SOME DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES...BRIDGES AND FENCES
OCCURRED. GRAVEL OR DIRT ROADS AND WALKWAYS WERE WASHED
AWAY.


&&

$$

KFRANTZ

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KJAX [161945]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 161945
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG DOUGLAS 31.51N 82.85W
08/15/2013 COFFEE GA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN IN DOUGLAS.

0425 PM TSTM WND DMG DOUGLAS 31.51N 82.85W
08/15/2013 COFFEE GA EMERGENCY MNGR

WIRES REPORTED DOWN IN THE DOUGLAS AREA.


&&

$$

ARS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1731

ACUS11 KWNS 161940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161940
IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-162215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN ORE AND SRN WA...A SMALL PART
OF WRN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161940Z - 162215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH LIMITED COVERAGE OF SUCH POTENTIAL
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THE PRESENCE OF ANY SALIENT MECHANISMS FORCING DEEP
ASCENT WITHIN A BROAD SW/NE-ORIENTED MOIST PLUME DOWNSTREAM OF AN
E-PACIFIC TROUGH ARE RATHER AMBIGUOUS PER RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS.
REGARDLESS...RELATIVELY ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT
WITHIN THIS PLUME -- CHARACTERIZED BY GPS PW VALUES AROUND 0.8-1.2
INCHES -- OVERLIES THE AREA...AND SFC OBS INDICATE DEWPOINTS ONLY
HAVING MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. DIURNAL
HEATING IS PROMOTING BOTH AN INCREASE IN SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AMIDST
THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS.

CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED INVOF THE CASCADES AND ENEWD OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD THE COLUMBIA PLATEAU. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
ADEQUATE IN THE PRESENCE OF MLCAPE OF AROUND 300-1000 J/KG FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE FROM THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AROUND 25-40 KT OF SSWLY/SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WERE SAMPLED BY THE
MEDFORD AND SALEM ORE 12Z RAOBS...AND SIMILAR MAGNITUDES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN PRESENT INTO THE EVENING OWING TO LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. CORRESPONDING MODERATE DEEP SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT ONE OR TWO ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SVR HAIL/WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE COVERAGE OF THE SVR POTENTIAL. WHILE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

..COHEN/KERR.. 08/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...

LAT...LON 46721611 45601670 43471980 42702197 43532188 45272132
46282040 47211826 47361662 46721611

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KSJT [161940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 161940
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
240 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0303 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 WNW BURKETT 32.02N 99.30W
08/15/2013 COLEMAN TX TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS LARGE PECAN TREE LIMBS DOWN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300417

$$

DOLL

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KFFC [161906]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 161906
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
306 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 NNW HOMER 34.41N 83.54W
08/08/2013 BANKS GA EMERGENCY MNGR

THE BANKS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED FLOOD WATERS
FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING
PORTIONS OF AROUND 7 ROADS BETWEEN ALTO AND HOMER. SOME
EROSION DAMAGE OCCURRED TO GRAVEL ROADS AND CULVERT
PIPES.


&&

$$

KFRANTZ

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KFWD [161842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 161842
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
142 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 N STEPHENVILLE 32.26N 98.20W
08/16/2013 ERATH TX PUBLIC

SHEET METAL STRUCTURE SHADING CATTLE FEED LANES WAS
BLOWN DOWN (CORRECTED TIME OF EVENT)

$$

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KFWD [161830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 161830
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
130 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1127 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 N STEPHENVILLE 32.26N 98.20W
08/16/2013 ERATH TX PUBLIC

SHEET METAL STRUCTURE SHADING CATTLE FEED LANES WAS
BLOWN DOWN

$$

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KOUN [161806]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOUN 161806
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
106 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL 2 S GRANDFIELD 34.20N 98.69W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH TILLMAN OK AMATEUR RADIO

0330 PM HAIL 2 SSE GRANDFIELD 34.20N 98.67W
08/15/2013 E1.50 INCH TILLMAN OK AMATEUR RADIO

0340 PM HAIL 2 N DEVOL 34.22N 98.59W
08/15/2013 E1.75 INCH COTTON OK OTHER FEDERAL

REPORTED BY RURAL MAIL CARRIER

0345 PM TSTM WND GST WESTOVER 33.50N 99.02W
08/15/2013 E60.00 MPH BAYLOR TX PUBLIC

0345 PM HAIL WESTOVER 33.50N 99.02W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH BAYLOR TX PUBLIC

0416 PM HAIL COGAR 35.33N 98.13W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH CADDO OK PUBLIC

0452 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N CYRIL 34.91N 98.20W
08/15/2013 E60.00 MPH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO

0500 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NNW STERLING 34.76N 98.18W
08/15/2013 E70.00 MPH COMANCHE OK TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS 6-8 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S STERLING 34.69N 98.17W
08/15/2013 COMANCHE OK TRAINED SPOTTER

FOUR POWER POLES SNAPPED

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG FLETCHER 34.82N 98.24W
08/15/2013 COMANCHE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

3 UTILITY TRANSMISSION LINES DOWNED, 3 CARPORTS DOWNED,
ALONG WITH A ROOF FROM A COMMERCIAL BUILDING.

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG STERLING 34.75N 98.17W
08/15/2013 COMANCHE OK AMATEUR RADIO

FIVE INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN AT STERLING HIGH
SCHOOL.

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N HENRIETTA 33.85N 98.19W
08/15/2013 CLAY TX EMERGENCY MNGR

UTILITY POLE DOWNED ON HIGHWAY 148.

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG HENRIETTA 33.82N 98.19W
08/15/2013 CLAY TX EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL 6 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWNED.

0740 PM TSTM WND DMG N BELLEVUE 33.63N 98.02W
08/15/2013 CLAY TX EMERGENCY MNGR

RECREATIONAL VEHICLE TURNED OVER ON HWY 287

0748 PM TSTM WND DMG VASHTI 33.55N 98.05W
08/15/2013 CLAY TX EMERGENCY MNGR

CARPORT DESTROYED, 2 BARNS HAD THEIR ROOFS BLOWN OFF.

1055 PM HAIL 8 NW ALVA 36.88N 98.77W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH WOODS OK PUBLIC

1145 PM HAIL 6 E WAYNOKA 36.58N 98.77W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH WOODS OK PUBLIC

0100 AM HAIL REYDON 35.65N 99.92W
08/16/2013 E1.50 INCH ROGER MILLS OK PUBLIC

0100 AM TSTM WND DMG REYDON 35.65N 99.92W
08/16/2013 ROGER MILLS OK PUBLIC

LARGE TREES DOWN

0120 AM HAIL 3 N SWEETWATER 35.46N 99.92W
08/16/2013 E1.00 INCH ROGER MILLS OK PUBLIC

0125 AM HAIL 4 W SWEETWATER 35.42N 99.99W
08/16/2013 E2.25 INCH BECKHAM OK PUBLIC

0425 AM TSTM WND DMG SCOTLAND 33.66N 98.47W
08/16/2013 ARCHER TX PUBLIC

NUMEROUS 4 TO 6 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0435 AM TSTM WND DMG WINDTHORST 33.58N 98.44W
08/16/2013 ARCHER TX INSURANCE CO

MULTIPLE REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE IN THE WINDTHORST AREA.
MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BARNS AND OUTBUILDINGS AND
NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES.

0620 AM TSTM WND GST SHEPPARD AFB 33.98N 98.50W
08/16/2013 M59.00 MPH WICHITA TX ASOS

0620 AM TSTM WND GST SHEPPARD AFB 33.98N 98.50W
08/16/2013 M59.00 MPH WICHITA TX ASOS


&&

$$

MAUSTIN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1730

ACUS11 KWNS 161803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161803
FLZ000-GAZ000-162030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161803Z - 162030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A PLUME OF RICH DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A WARM CONVEYOR
BELT E OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER PARTS OF THE SERN STATES IS
CHARACTERIZED BY GPS PW VALUES OF 2.0-2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SFC OBS INDICATING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S. THE 12Z RAOBS AT CHS...JAX...AND TLH INDICATE DEEP LAYERS OF
NEARLY MOIST-NEUTRAL PROFILES IN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE WITH GENERALLY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DIURNALLY STEEPENING IN RESPONSE
TO MODEST INSOLATION IN AREAS OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE --
GENERALLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF A WAVY...QUASI-STATIONARY...
CONVECTIVE-OUTFLOW-AUGMENTED SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM SSE OF SAVANNAH GA TO
WEAK LOW PRESSURE NW VIDALIA GA TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW NNE OF MARIANA
FL THAT EXTENDS FARTHER SW INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO.

CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AMIDST A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AND VERY WEAK INHIBITION PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS. FOCI FOR ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING:
/1/ CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...
/2/ ASCENT ACCOMPANYING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES OVER THE
PERIPHERIES OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD DECKS SCATTERED ACROSS THE
AREA...
/3/ LIFT INVOF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION...AND
/4/ ASCENT INVOF A SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS THAT ENTERS SWRN PARTS OF THE
MCD AREA FROM THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF.

UPDRAFT INTENSITY WILL LARGELY BE MITIGATED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...WITH A BAND OF 20-25 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW E OF THE
TROUGH -- STRONGEST NEAR THE AUGMENTED SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY -- A FEW
MARGINALLY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS MAY OCCUR. AND...WITH THE HIGH
PW IN PLACE SUPPORTING ABUNDANT WATER LOADING...AN ISOLATED DMGG
WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..COHEN/KERR.. 08/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30348560 31628343 32298231 32348144 31968106 30788146
29308103 28788165 28848264 29878385 29658527 30348560

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1729

ACUS11 KWNS 161740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161740
TXZ000-161945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF SRN AND SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161740Z - 161945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH A PORTION OF SRN AND
SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WING GUSTS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
STRETCHES FROM HUNTSVILLE IN SERN TX WSWWD TO JUST NORTH OF SAN
ANTONIO THEN FARTHER WEST NEAR SANDERSON...AND IS MOVING SOUTH AT
AROUND 20 KT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE PROMOTED STRONG INSOLATION
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S
ALONG WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. DESPITE THE HIGH THETA-E BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH MLCAPE
LIMITED TO 1500-2000 J/KG DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND WEAK
MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVE FOSTERED INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS OVER
SCNTRL TX. THE STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A
THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT IS UNLIKELY.

..DIAL/KERR.. 08/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29119905 29299753 29729653 30219591 29869533 28879562
28179796 28379994 29210027 29119905

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KSJT [161738]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 161738
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0516 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 W THROCKMORTON 33.18N 99.25W
08/16/2013 THROCKMORTON TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FOUR POWER LINES WERE BLOWN COMPLETELY OVER.


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300416

$$

18

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161728
SWODY2
SPC AC 161727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN ADDITION TO A WEAK DEEP LAYER LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY /INVOF THE MID SOUTH/ AT THE START OF DAY 2...A SECOND LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF NEAR THE CA COAST FROM STRONGER ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER SRN CANADA. THE MID SOUTH LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AND MAY
DRIFT SLOWLY NWD SATURDAY WITHIN A DE-AMPLIFYING TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER W...AS A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE W COAST FRACTURES...THE AFOREMENTIONED SRN PORTION
EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE CA COAST WHILE THE NRN EXTENT
ADVANCES EAST TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. IN THE SOUTHEAST...A
WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEWD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA --- ESPECIALLY INVOF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD THROUGH GA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

...WRN/CNTRL MT...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S COLLOCATED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
FAVOR WEAK CAPE OVER WRN/CNTRL MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE NRN ROCKIES COMBINES WITH
OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS. A BELT OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER-LEVEL WSWLYS
WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS.

...ERN NM...FAR SERN CO...WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES...W-CNTRL TX...
LOW-LEVEL SELYS WILL BACK 50S DEWPOINTS INTO ERN NM/W TX AND AID IN
MODERATE BUOYANCY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...AND SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. NNWLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ATOP BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS.

...COASTAL AREAS OF SERN LA TO FL PANHANDLE...
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO...NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED YET WITH THIS
OUTLOOK ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS FROM LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE MAY
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION OBSERVED ON A TRANSIENT BASIS. THE SPREAD
IN THE MODEL DATA FOR THE AREA TO HAVE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VARIES FROM SERN LA TO SWRN AL IN THE 12Z NAM...WITH THE GFS
INDICATING THE FL PANHANDLE HAVING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL
ROTATION.

..PETERS.. 08/16/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 161655
SWODY1
SPC AC 161654

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED HAIL PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH THE CREST OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF A SOUTHERN
PLATEAU SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER MAY FLATTEN SOME LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED...BUT WEAK TO MODEST IN
STRENGTH...THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...DIGGING INTO BASE OF LARGER SCALE
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A
WEAK DEEP LAYER LOW EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...WITHIN A BELT OF LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW
TO THE NORTH...ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...WHILE ANOTHER GRADUALLY TURNS
EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER DEVELOPMENTS...SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL
COOLING AND DRYING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S...IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE NOW CURVING
ACROSS SOUTH ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL AREAS. HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES OR SO/ IS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA AND THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAIN. BUT AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE LINGERS WITHIN AN
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WARM AND
DEEPLY MIXED AIR EMERGING FROM THE PLATEAU REGION REMAIN QUITE
STEEP.

...SOUTHEAST...
IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION NOW SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW ALREADY APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY STILL APPEARS TO EXIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS BECOMING MODERATELY LARGE. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERE APPEARS AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AIDED BY HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT
THE ENVIRONMENT LIKELY WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE 30+ KT
NORTHERLY 500 MB FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR.

...OREGON...
MODESTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
THE EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OR
TWO STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS MAY NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...THOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR ONLY MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

..KERR.. 08/16/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161631
SWODY1
SPC AC 161629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH THE CREST OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF A SOUTHERN
PLATEAU SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER MAY FLATTEN SOME LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED...BUT WEAK TO MODEST IN
STRENGTH...THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...DIGGING INTO BASE OF LARGER SCALE
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A
WEAK DEEP LAYER LOW EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...WITHIN A BELT OF LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW
TO THE NORTH...ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...WHILE ANOTHER GRADUALLY TURNS
EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER DEVELOPMENTS...SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL
COOLING AND DRYING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S...IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE NOW CURVING
ACROSS SOUTH ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL AREAS. HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES OR SO/ IS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA AND THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAIN. BUT AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE LINGERS WITHIN AN
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WARM AND
DEEPLY MIXED AIR EMERGING FROM THE PLATEAU REGION REMAIN QUITE
STEEP.

...SOUTHEAST...
IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION NOW SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW ALREADY APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY STILL APPEARS TO EXIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS BECOMING MODERATELY LARGE. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERE APPEARS AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AIDED BY HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT
THE ENVIRONMENT LIKELY WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE 30+ KT
NORTHERLY 500 MB FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR.

...OREGON...
MODESTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
THE EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OR
TWO STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS MAY NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...THOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR ONLY MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

..KERR/COHEN.. 08/16/2013

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KOAX [161623]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 161623
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1123 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN TEKAMAH 41.78N 96.22W
08/15/2013 M2.86 INCH BURT NE CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

J-E.KLISH

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KOAX [161618]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 161618
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1118 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN SHUBERT 40.24N 95.68W
08/16/2013 M1.26 INCH RICHARDSON NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN BEATRICE 40.27N 96.75W
08/16/2013 M1.10 INCH GAGE NE CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

J-E.KLISH

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KOAX [161615]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 161615
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1115 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S PERSIA 41.55N 95.57W
08/16/2013 M2.90 INCH HARRISON IA COCORAHS


&&

$$

J-E.KLISH

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KOUN [161543]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 161543
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1043 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 PM HAIL 6 E WAYNOKA 36.58N 98.77W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH WOODS OK PUBLIC


&&

$$

DW

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KFFC [161535]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 161535
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1135 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE CENTERVILLE 32.64N 83.68W
08/16/2013 HOUSTON GA EMERGENCY MNGR

THE HOUSTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS FLOOD WATERS
FROM DRAINAGE DITICHES AND SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING
PORTIONS OF AROUND 10 ROADS IN THE CENTERVILLE AREA. SOME
MINOR FLOODING OF A FEW RESIDENTIAL YARDS NEAR THE
STREAMS OCCURRED. THE FLOOD WATERS HAVE BEEN FLOWING INTO
THE BAY GALL CREEK BASIN.


&&

$$

KFRANTZ

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KOUN [161529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 161529
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1029 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 PM HAIL 8 NW ALVA 36.88N 98.77W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH WOODS OK PUBLIC


&&

$$

DW

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