MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1729

ACUS11 KWNS 161740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161740
TXZ000-161945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF SRN AND SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161740Z - 161945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH A PORTION OF SRN AND
SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WING GUSTS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
STRETCHES FROM HUNTSVILLE IN SERN TX WSWWD TO JUST NORTH OF SAN
ANTONIO THEN FARTHER WEST NEAR SANDERSON...AND IS MOVING SOUTH AT
AROUND 20 KT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE PROMOTED STRONG INSOLATION
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S
ALONG WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. DESPITE THE HIGH THETA-E BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH MLCAPE
LIMITED TO 1500-2000 J/KG DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND WEAK
MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVE FOSTERED INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS OVER
SCNTRL TX. THE STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A
THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT IS UNLIKELY.

..DIAL/KERR.. 08/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29119905 29299753 29729653 30219591 29869533 28879562
28179796 28379994 29210027 29119905

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