KAMA [260359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 260359
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
959 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0748 AM SNOW 15 S CANYON 34.76N 101.92W
12/25/2011 E2.5 INCH RANDALL TX PUBLIC

0935 AM SNOW DAWN 34.91N 102.20W
12/25/2011 M1.5 INCH DEAF SMITH TX TRAINED SPOTTER

1248 PM SNOW 7 E VEGA 35.25N 102.30W
12/25/2011 E1.0 INCH OLDHAM TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

1251 PM SNOW CLARENDON 34.94N 100.89W
12/25/2011 E4.0 INCH DONLEY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0109 PM SNOW 6 SSW AMARILLO 35.13N 101.86W
12/25/2011 M2.0 INCH RANDALL TX PUBLIC

0134 PM SNOW 7 E AMARILLO 35.20N 101.69W
12/25/2011 M2.0 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE

0245 PM SNOW 5 SW AMARILLO 35.15N 101.87W
12/25/2011 M2.2 INCH RANDALL TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0250 PM SNOW 3 WNW AMARILLO 35.22N 101.87W
12/25/2011 M4.5 INCH POTTER TX PUBLIC

0418 PM SNOW 5 SW AMARILLO 35.15N 101.88W
12/25/2011 M4.0 INCH RANDALL TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0442 PM SNOW 6 NW AMARILLO 35.26N 101.89W
12/25/2011 M4.0 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0454 PM SNOW 2 S AMARILLO 35.17N 101.82W
12/25/2011 M5.0 INCH RANDALL TX PUBLIC

0526 PM SNOW PAMPA 35.55N 100.96W
12/25/2011 E1.0 INCH GRAY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0529 PM SNOW PANHANDLE 35.35N 101.38W
12/25/2011 E1.5 INCH CARSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0530 PM SNOW CLAUDE 35.11N 101.36W
12/25/2011 M4.0 INCH ARMSTRONG TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0619 PM SNOW 7 ENE AMARILLO 35.23N 101.71W
12/25/2011 M4.2 INCH POTTER TX NWS OFFICE

0956 PM SNOW HEREFORD 34.82N 102.40W
12/25/2011 E2.5 INCH DEAF SMITH TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0957 PM SNOW VEGA 35.25N 102.43W
12/25/2011 E3.5 INCH OLDHAM TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100588 AMA1100587 AMA1100574 AMA1100577 AMA1100578
AMA1100579 AMA1100582 AMA1100580 AMA1100583 AMA1100584 AMA1100585
AMA1100586 AMA1100589 AMA1100590 AMA1100591 AMA1100592 AMA1100593

$$

LG

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KAMA [260358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 260358
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
958 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0957 PM SNOW VEGA 35.25N 102.43W
12/25/2011 E3.5 INCH OLDHAM TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100593

$$

LG

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KAMA [260357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 260357
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
957 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0956 PM SNOW HEREFORD 34.82N 102.40W
12/25/2011 E2.5 INCH DEAF SMITH TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100592

$$

LG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260058
SWODY1
SPC AC 260056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SABINE RIVER/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
A PERSISTENT SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO EARLY MONDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE/CONTINENTAL
TRAJECTORIES...RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED
MARINE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

A MODEST/GRADUAL NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FURTHER INCREASE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING/WEAK DESTABILIZATION FOR PARCELS BASED NEAR/ABOVE 850MB
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST EMBEDDED/SPORADIC TSTMS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF LA INTO
WESTERN/SOUTHERN MS.

..GUYER.. 12/26/2011

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KAMA [260020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 260020
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
619 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0619 PM SNOW 7 ENE AMARILLO 35.23N 101.71W
12/25/2011 M4.2 INCH POTTER TX NWS OFFICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100591

$$

LG

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KAMA [252331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 252331
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
531 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM SNOW CLAUDE 35.11N 101.36W
12/25/2011 M4.0 INCH ARMSTRONG TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100590

$$

LG

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KAMA [252330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 252330
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
530 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0529 PM SNOW PANHANDLE 35.35N 101.38W
12/25/2011 E1.5 INCH CARSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100589

$$

LG

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KAMA [252328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 252328
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
527 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0526 PM SNOW PAMPA 35.55N 100.96W
12/25/2011 E1.0 INCH GRAY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100586

$$

LG

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KSGX [252320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 252320
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 PM PST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE CUYAMACA PEAK 32.93N 116.53W
12/24/2011 M54.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA UTILITY COMPANY

LUCKY FIVE RANCH SDGE STATION

1030 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNW SAN BERNARDINO 34.18N 117.32W
12/24/2011 M42.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

CAL STATE SAN BERNARDINO MESONET RECORDED A WIND GUST OF
42 MPH BETWEEN 1000 AM AND 1100 AM

1030 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CRESTLINE 34.25N 117.30W
12/24/2011 M50.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

CRESTLINE RIDGE MESONET RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 50 MPH
BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 1100 PM

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE DULZURA 32.70N 116.76W
12/25/2011 M48.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

LYONS PEAK HPWREN STATION RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 48 MPH
BETWEEN 300 AM AND 400 AM

0340 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW DULZURA 32.60N 116.84W
12/25/2011 M41.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA UTILITY COMPANY

OTAY MOUNTAIN SDGE STATION RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH
AT 340 AM AND 410 AM

0620 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE CUYAMACA PEAK 32.93N 116.53W
12/25/2011 M47.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA UTILITY COMPANY

LUCKY FIVE RANCH SDGE STATION

&&

$$

JMOKER

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KAMA [252255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 252255
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
455 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0454 PM SNOW 2 S AMARILLO 35.17N 101.82W
12/25/2011 M5.0 INCH RANDALL TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100585

$$

SMB

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KAMA [252243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 252243
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
443 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 PM SNOW 6 NW AMARILLO 35.26N 101.89W
12/25/2011 M4.0 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100584

$$

SMB

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KAMA [252219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 252219
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
419 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM SNOW 5 SW AMARILLO 35.15N 101.88W
12/25/2011 M4.0 INCH RANDALL TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100583

$$

LG

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KAMA [252218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 252218
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
418 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM SNOW 5 SW AMARILLO 35.15N 101.87W
12/25/2011 M2.2 INCH RANDALL TX NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100582

$$

LG

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KSEW [252126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 252126
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
126 PM PST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0126 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SSE DEMING 48.76N 122.18W
12/25/2011 M51 MPH WHATCOM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GRUB

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KAMA [252103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 252103
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
303 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0302 PM SNOW 7 E AMARILLO 35.20N 101.69W
12/25/2011 M4.0 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100581

$$

SMB

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KAMA [252051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 252051
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
251 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM SNOW 3 WNW AMARILLO 35.22N 101.87W
12/25/2011 M4.5 INCH POTTER TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100580

$$

SMB

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KSEW [252015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 252015
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1215 PM PST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1214 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E NOON 48.80N 122.37W
12/25/2011 M45 MPH WHATCOM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GRUB

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KMQT [252002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 252002
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
302 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 10 E ONTONAGON 46.87N 89.10W
12/25/2011 M2.0 INCH ONTONAGON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

12 HOUR TOTAL. 0.16 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

&&

$$

KLUBER

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KSEW [252000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 252000
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1200 PM PST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1159 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE REDMOND 47.68N 122.06W
12/25/2011 M43 MPH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL BRANCHES ARE DOWN.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KSEW [251950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 251950
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1150 AM PST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1149 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW LA CONNER 48.40N 122.54W
12/25/2011 M54 MPH SKAGIT WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 30 MPH.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KAMA [251935]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 251935
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
135 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0134 PM SNOW 7 E AMARILLO 35.20N 101.69W
12/25/2011 M2.0 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100579

$$

SMB

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KSEW [251923]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 251923
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1123 AM PST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1118 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SEA-TAC 47.44N 122.30W
12/25/2011 KING WA PUBLIC

SECURITY GUARD AT PARKING LOT 2 BLOCKS NORTH OF SEA-TAC

AIRPORT REPORTED WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 40-45 MPG.
GUSTS BLEW DOWN A CHAIN LINK FENCE THAT WAS WEIGHED DOWN.

1122 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BURIEN 47.46N 122.35W
12/25/2011 M63 MPH KING WA PUBLIC

PERSON IN THREE TREE POINT RECORDED 63 MPH GUST ON DAVIS
WEATHER SYSTEM. NO DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

$$

GRUB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251914
SWODY1
SPC AC 251912

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK ATTM...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM ERN
TX/ERN OK EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HERE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS
ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL STABLE LAYER.

..GOSS.. 12/25/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2011/

...NW GULF COAST TODAY TO THE ARKLATEX/ERN OK TONIGHT...
UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER W TX IS ACCOMPANIED BY POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH TRAILING SWWD INTO NRN MEXICO THIS MORNING. DOWNSTREAM MOIST
S-SWLY FLOW IS SITUATED ATOP A STABLE NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE
SRN MS VALLEY/NW GULF COAST REGION. MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ROOTED AT 850 MB IS AIDING IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
THROUGH 16Z...BUT SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT AS LLJ CONTINUES TO VEER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE BIG BEND AREA...LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FROM THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO ERN
OK. THIS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING PROBABLE GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE ROOTED BETWEEN THE
850-700 MB LAYER.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX...
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD /NEAR 12Z/...COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MAY FAVOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ATTM...WHICH
WILL PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A CATEGORICAL THUNDER LINE.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN AS THIS TAKES PLACE...WHICH COULD AID IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...GREATER PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE OFFSHORE ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC AS COLD MIDLEVEL AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS WARMER OCEAN
WATERS.

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KAMA [251910]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 251910
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
110 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0109 PM SNOW 6 SSW AMARILLO 35.13N 101.86W
12/25/2011 M2.0 INCH RANDALL TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100578

$$

SMB

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KAMA [251851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 251851
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1251 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1251 PM SNOW CLARENDON 34.94N 100.89W
12/25/2011 E4.0 INCH DONLEY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100577

$$

SMB

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KAMA [251851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 251851
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1251 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1251 PM SNOW CLAUDE 35.11N 101.36W
12/25/2011 E2.5 INCH ARMSTRONG TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100576

$$

SMB

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KAMA [251850]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 251850
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1249 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1249 PM SNOW PANHANDLE 35.35N 101.38W
12/25/2011 E1.0 INCH CARSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100575

$$

SMB

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KAMA [251849]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 251849
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1249 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1248 PM SNOW 7 E VEGA 35.25N 102.30W
12/25/2011 E1.0 INCH OLDHAM TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100574

$$

SMB

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251729
SWODY2
SPC AC 251728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME MOBILE THIS PERIOD...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CONUS AND REACHING THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

AS THIS COMPACT/VIGOROUS SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS
PROGGED...WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE WRN GULF FORECAST TO
MOVE/REDEVELOP INLAND...CROSSING LA/MS AND REACHING THE TN VALLEY
AREA LATE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS NEWD...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WITH CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING
THE LOW/FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM. ANY SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PERIOD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
WHILE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS AREAS W OF THE MS VALLEY EARLY WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING EWD WITH TIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ADVANCING
STORM SYSTEM...A MORE SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH TIME. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS/DEVELOPS NEWD...THE MARINE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE
INTO COASTAL AREAS OF LA/MS/AL/THE FL PANHANDLE...JUST AHEAD OF THE
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT.

WHILE STILL LIMITED BY MEAGER INSTABILITY OWING TO WEAK LAPSE
RATES...SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE NEAR THE COAST -- FROM
COASTAL LA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING
EWD TO PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE LATE -- AS THIS WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT INLAND. VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
VEERING/SHEAR COULD SUPPORT ROTATING CONVECTION -- AND THUS
LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS EVIDENT. WITH SOME THREAT
FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER/NEAR
SURFACE-BASED CELLS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF A POSSIBLE FRONTAL LINE
OF CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA THIS
FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 12/25/2011

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KSEW [251651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 251651
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
851 AM PST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ENE VAIL 46.86N 122.58W
12/25/2011 M51 MPH THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 31 MPH.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KMQT [251627]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 251627
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1127 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1123 AM SNOW ROCKLAND 46.74N 89.18W
12/25/2011 M2.0 INCH ONTONAGON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

$$

KLUBER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251619
SWODY1
SPC AC 251617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NW GULF COAST TODAY TO THE ARKLATEX/ERN OK TONIGHT...
UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER W TX IS ACCOMPANIED BY POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH TRAILING SWWD INTO NRN MEXICO THIS MORNING. DOWNSTREAM MOIST
S-SWLY FLOW IS SITUATED ATOP A STABLE NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE
SRN MS VALLEY/NW GULF COAST REGION. MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ROOTED AT 850 MB IS AIDING IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
THROUGH 16Z...BUT SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT AS LLJ CONTINUES TO VEER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE BIG BEND AREA...LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FROM THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO ERN
OK. THIS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING PROBABLE GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE ROOTED BETWEEN THE
850-700 MB LAYER.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX...
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD /NEAR 12Z/...COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MAY FAVOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ATTM...WHICH
WILL PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A CATEGORICAL THUNDER LINE.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN AS THIS TAKES PLACE...WHICH COULD AID IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...GREATER PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE OFFSHORE ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC AS COLD MIDLEVEL AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS WARMER OCEAN
WATERS.

..GARNER/HART.. 12/25/2011

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KMQT [251618]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 251618
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1118 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 4 E SILVER CITY 46.84N 89.48W
12/25/2011 M2.0 INCH ONTONAGON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

12 HOUR TOTAL. O.20 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0800 AM SNOW 2 E WINONA 46.88N 88.86W
12/25/2011 M2.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

12 HOUR TOTAL. 0.15 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0800 AM SNOW LAURIUM 47.24N 88.44W
12/25/2011 M2.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL.

0900 AM SNOW 4 SSW BERGLAND 46.55N 89.60W
12/25/2011 E3.0 INCH ONTONAGON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

$$

KLUBER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251230
SWODY1
SPC AC 251227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NW GULF COAST TODAY TO THE ARKLATEX/SE OK TONIGHT...
THE MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WILL WOBBLE WNWWD AS ONE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES NWWD FROM NW TX...AND ANOTHER WAVE
PIVOTS ESEWD OVER NW/N CENTRAL MEXICO. AN INITIAL LLJ FROM THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO TO SW LA WILL WEAKEN TODAY...THOUGH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS SRN LA/SW MS...ROOTED IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER. THE RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND
NWWD TONIGHT AS ANOTHER BRANCH OF LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE ARKLATEX. SOME MOISTENING ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE OF 75-150 J/KG BASED NEAR 700 MB.
SINCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK AND THE SURFACE WARM
SECTOR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NW GULF...SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 12/25/2011

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KDLH [251159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 251159
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
559 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0558 AM SNOW INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
12/25/2011 M0.5 INCH KOOCHICHING MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

NEW SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

$$

GRANING

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250950
SWOD48
SPC AC 250949

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
STG COLD FROPA EXPECTED OFF E COAST AND SWD THROUGH GULF LATE
DAY-3...RELEGATING HIGH-THETAE MARINE AIR TO N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN.
WHILE AIR-MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER GULF...ADDITIONAL
COLD-FRONTAL INTRUSIONS PRIOR TO WELL-DEVELOPED RETURN FLOWS SHOULD
KEEP MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THETAE DISPLACED AWAY FROM MOST
SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER PERTURBATIONS...FOR SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST.

..EDWARDS.. 12/25/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250830
SWODY3
SPC AC 250829

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW FCST ACROSS CONUS
BY END OF PERIOD...AS NRN-STREAM HEIGHT FALLS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONJOINMENT OF NRN AND SRN STREAMS. MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN NM AND FAR W TX --
SHOULD BE DEAMPLIFYING AND MOVING ENEWD ACROSS ERN AR REGION BY
27/12Z. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FURTHER DEVOLVE TO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH
THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS...MOVING UP OH VALLEY AND OVER SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 28/00Z...THEN ENEWD ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AROUND END OF PERIOD.

AT SFC...INITIALLY PRIMARY SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE ENEWD FROM TN INTO
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SECONDARY/TRIPLE-POINT CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE
AROUND 28/00Z OVER NC/VA PIEDMONT...DEEPENING AND MOVING NEWD OVER
DELMARVA TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD FROM TN VALLEY ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND
OFFSHORE CAROLINAS. SRN SEGMENT OF FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS FL
PANHANDLE AND NERN GULF TO NEAR WRN COAST OF FL PENINSULA BY
28/00Z...THEN THROUGH REMAINDER PENINSULA BY 28/12Z. OPERATIONAL
NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH INLAND DESTABILIZATION OF RETURN FLOW
IN THIS REGIME...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF ANTECEDENT PRECIP
AND/OR SHORT/INCOMPLETE RETURN-FLOW TRAJECTORIES IN SERN CONUS. AS
SUCH...LATEST SPECTRAL/ECMWF ARE MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED FOR THIS
FCST.

...ERN GULF COAST REGION...
SVR POTENTIAL OVER THIS AREA WILL BE DURING MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...CARRYING OVER REGIME OF QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND
NEAR COLD FRONT AS DESCRIBED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK. LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS BEING NEAR AND S OF I-10 AND W OF
I-75. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING INLAND
PENETRATION OF HIGH-THETAE MARINE AIR PRECLUDE MORE THAN MRGL
UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...SRN/ERN CAROLINAS...
AS WITH ERN GULF COAST REGIME...EXPECT STG SHEAR BY MANY
MEASURES...MAIN CAVEATS BEING CONVECTIVE MODE AND INSTABILITY.
SUBSTANTIAL SLY SFC FLOW COMPONENT SHOULD BE SUSTAINED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND/OR ANY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE
LINE THAT MAY DEVELOP. THIS WILL ADVECT AT LEAST PARTIALLY MODIFIED
MARINE AIR INLAND FROM ATLC...MAIN UNCERTAINTIES BEING
1. HOW FAR INLAND FOR NEAR-SFC BASED PARCELS AND
2. HOW MUCH MODIFICATION...I.E. WHETHER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO OFFSET POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND YIELD
SUPPORTIVE MLCAPE.

..EDWARDS.. 12/25/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250641
SWODY2
SPC AC 250640

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER CYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER SERN NM AND FAR W TX IS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT ERRATICALLY OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH DAY-1...WHILE PHASING
WITH TRAILING VORTICITY LOBES NOW LOCATED FARTHER W AND SW ACROSS
AZ...BAJA..AND INTERIOR NWRN MEX. AS THIS OCCURS...MAIN CYCLONE
SHOULD CONSOLIDATE/STRENGTHEN...THEN BEGIN MOVING EWD EARLY
DAY-2...WITH 500-MB LOW CROSSING W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX AROUND
27/00Z. CYCLONE THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO MERGE WITH AREA OF NRN-STREAM
HEIGHT FALLS AND ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS ARKLATEX...REACHING ERN AR
BY END OF PERIOD.

AT SFC...FRONTAL-WAVE LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER NWRN GULF...OFFSHORE
LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST...IS FCST TO SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH DAY-1.
LOW THEN SHOULD EITHER MOVE OR RE-DEVELOP INLAND...REACHING
E-CENTRAL LA/SWRN MS AREA BY 27/00Z...WITH COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS
S-CENTRAL LA COAST INTO NWRN GULF. BY 27/12Z...SFC LOW SHOULD LIFT
NEWD ACROSS MS TO NWRN AL/MID TN REGION...WITH COLD FRONT SSEWD
ACROSS WRN PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE. EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY WILL
BE MARINE FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED EWD FROM LOW ACROSS N-CENTRAL GULF
THEN ESEWD TOWARD SRN FL. THIS FRONT...S OF WHICH SFC DEW POINTS
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F WILL BE COMMON...MAY MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND
SERN LA AND BRUSH COASTAL AREAS OF MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE PRIOR TO COLD
FROPA.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN AT LEAST THREE REGIMES EARLY IN PERIOD...IN
LIKELY ORDER OF OCCURRENCE...
1. ELEVATED WAA CONVEYOR INLAND OVER LA...N OF SFC LOW...AND FCST TO
MOVE NNEWD THROUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TOWARD OH VALLEY THROUGH
EVENING. THIS MAY BECOME BLENDED WITH NRN END OF NEXT TWO
PROCESSES...

2. EARLY-PERIOD THUNDER OVER SRN/ERN TX ATOP SFC COLD SECTOR...BUT
NEAR INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NNWWD FROM GULF LOW. ASSOCIATED
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME AHEAD OF EJECTING MID-UPPER LOW SHOULD
BOOST THETAE IN 850-700 MB LAYER JUST ENOUGH TO YIELD UP TO 500 J/KG
MUCAPE. THIS PLUME OF CONVECTION MAY REMAIN NW OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE
THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...BUT MAY CATCH UP DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH...

3. BAND OF CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING SFC-900 MB COLD FRONT...WITH
PROBABLE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. TSTMS SHOULD BUILD SWD ALONG
FRONT INTO GULF...WITH EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ROOTED AT OR VERY
NEAR SFC GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I-10. FCST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL BE LARGE WITH SELY WINDS NEAR MARINE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM
AFTER ABOUT 27/03Z ONWARD. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED...EVEN WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 DEG C/KM SHOULD KEEP MLCAPE
BELOW 500 J/KG IN SFC WARM SECTOR...WHOSE INLAND EXTENT REMAINS
QUITE UNCERTAIN. ATTM SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/MRGL
FOR MORE THAN 5% RISK AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 12/25/2011

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