DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251729
SWODY2
SPC AC 251728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME MOBILE THIS PERIOD...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CONUS AND REACHING THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

AS THIS COMPACT/VIGOROUS SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS
PROGGED...WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE WRN GULF FORECAST TO
MOVE/REDEVELOP INLAND...CROSSING LA/MS AND REACHING THE TN VALLEY
AREA LATE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS NEWD...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WITH CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING
THE LOW/FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM. ANY SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PERIOD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
WHILE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS AREAS W OF THE MS VALLEY EARLY WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING EWD WITH TIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ADVANCING
STORM SYSTEM...A MORE SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH TIME. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS/DEVELOPS NEWD...THE MARINE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE
INTO COASTAL AREAS OF LA/MS/AL/THE FL PANHANDLE...JUST AHEAD OF THE
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT.

WHILE STILL LIMITED BY MEAGER INSTABILITY OWING TO WEAK LAPSE
RATES...SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE NEAR THE COAST -- FROM
COASTAL LA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING
EWD TO PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE LATE -- AS THIS WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT INLAND. VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
VEERING/SHEAR COULD SUPPORT ROTATING CONVECTION -- AND THUS
LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS EVIDENT. WITH SOME THREAT
FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER/NEAR
SURFACE-BASED CELLS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF A POSSIBLE FRONTAL LINE
OF CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA THIS
FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 12/25/2011

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