KABQ [120217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 120217
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
817 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0623 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W MORIARTY 35.00N 106.06W
10/11/2008 TORRANCE NM PUBLIC

EXTENSIVE DAMAGE WITHIN THE PUMPKIN PATCH AND ASSOCIATE
CORN MAZE. NO INJURIES.

&&

$$

50

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 916

WWUS20 KWNS 120203
SEL6
SPC WW 120203
COZ000-NMZ000-120200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 916
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
803 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 916 ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT FOR PORTIONS OF

COLORADO
NEW MEXICO

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2331

ACUS11 KWNS 120147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120146
KSZ000-COZ000-120315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 120146Z - 120315Z

TAIL-END OF A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING NWD INTO SRN CO
THIS EVENING WILL GRAZE THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY MORNING
SUNDAY. CONCOMMITMENT INCREASE IN THE H85-H7 SSWLY LLJ OF 50-55 KTS
WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN NEAR 60 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS OVER THE REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PLUME OF
STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL EDGE EWD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS BY
06Z...YIELDING MODEST DESTABILIZATION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND GIVEN ONLY MODEST
BUOYANCY...ANY SUPERCELL THREAT WOULD BE BRIEF. HOWEVER...BOWS AND
SMALL SCALE LEWPS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AND DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
RISKS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME. IN FACT...RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EFFECTIVE PARCELS WILL BE ROOTED AT OR VERY
NEAR THE SFC THROUGH LATE EVENING...AND GIVEN 250+ M2/S2 0-1KM SRH
AND MOIST LOW-LVLS...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A WW MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO AND WRN KS.

..RACY.. 10/12/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

37090427 39900167 39740036 38120005 37050062

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KKEY [120138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 120138
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
938 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0718 PM WATER SPOUT 5 S BIG PINE KEY 24.61N 81.37W
10/11/2008 GMZ054 FL PUBLIC

TWO REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC INDICATED A SLIM MATURE
WATERSPOUT FORMED ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF BIG PINE KEY
THIS EVENING...NEAR LOOE KEY LIGHT. A SPRAY RING WAS
VISIBLE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. DUE TO DARKNESS AND
THE PRESENCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS VISUAL CONFIRMATION OF THE
SPOUT WAS LOST AROUND 727 PM EDT AND IT WAS SUSPECTED TO
HAVE DISSIPATED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. DURATION ABOUT 10
MINUTES.

&&

$$

ROSS

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KLKN [120135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KLKN 120135
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
634 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HEAVY SNOW 9 SE LAMOILLE 40.64N 115.38W
10/11/2008 M15.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

15 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED AT THE NATURE TRAIL ALONG
LAMOILLE CANYON ROAD...ELEVATION 8200 FEET MSL.

&&

$$

RCM

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KABQ [120127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 120127
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
727 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0539 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W FARMINGTON 36.75N 108.22W
10/11/2008 M59.00 MPH SAN JUAN NM ASOS

0626 PM HAIL 3 SSW STANLEY 35.11N 106.00W
10/11/2008 M1.00 INCH SANTA FE NM STORM CHASER

0633 PM HAIL 1 N STANLEY 35.16N 105.98W
10/11/2008 M1.00 INCH SANTA FE NM STORM CHASER

0633 PM TORNADO 2 E STANLEY 35.15N 105.94W
10/11/2008 SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

STARTED 633 PM AND ENDED 635 PM. NO DAMAGE.

&&

$$

50

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 918

WWUS20 KWNS 120104
SEL8
SPC WW 120104
NMZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-120700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WEST CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM
UNTIL 100 AM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
DALHART TEXAS TO 80 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROSWELL NEW MEXICO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 916...WW 917...

DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG SSW-NNE
CONFLUENCE ZONE IN E CNTRL/SE NM. OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALONG SIMILAR CONFLUENCE BAND IN MORE DEEPLY-MIXED ENVIRONMENT IN N
CNTRL/ NE NM. STRENGTH OF EXISTING WIND FIELD...LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME
BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF NEAR-SFC FLOW...AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER ERN NM SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD BUT POSSIBLY STRONG
TORNADOES OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE AND IN ADJACENT PARTS OF TX.
HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS IN THE N
CNTRL/NE NM.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.

...CORFIDI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120058
SWODY1
SPC AC 120055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/ERN NM AND WRN TX
NWD INTO SERN CO AND SWRN KS...

...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...

INTENSE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD TONIGHT AS 130+ KT HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK
PROPAGATES NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNER REGION INTO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALLER-SCALE SHORT
WAVE OVER CO WHICH WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS
CO WITH TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES.

A COUPLE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS OF TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/
ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF 01Z...ONE FROM SERN CO TO JUST E OF ABQ...AND
THE OTHER FROM NEAR DHT TO JUST E OF ELP. PLAN VIEW VWP DATA AND
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
WITHIN A BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MASS CONVERGENCE IS BEING ENHANCED. DESPITE A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS PRESENT OVER WRN TX/ERN NM...00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER CNTRL
NM /I.E. SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ OWING LARGELY TO COMPARATIVELY
COOLER MIDLEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND RESULTANT STEEPER LAPSE RATES.

INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX AND LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG 40-50 KT
NOCTURNAL LLJ...COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM
THE W WILL LIKELY FOCUS A N-S CORRIDOR OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS
OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NM/WRN TX NWD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS.
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN ADDITION TO A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS E-CNTRL NM INTO THE SRN TX
PNHDL /REF MCD 2329/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH
ANY MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

..MEAD.. 10/12/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2330

ACUS11 KWNS 120046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120046
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-120215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NM...EXTREME SCNTRL CO AND FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 916...917...

VALID 120046Z - 120215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
916...917...CONTINUES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 916 COVERING CNTRL/NRN NM AND EXTREME
SCNTRL CO IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EITHER
REPLACED OR EXTENDED BY LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES PENDING
CURRENT STORM EVOLUTIONS.

WEAK RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE WAS SPREADING NEWD IN WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE ROTATING NWD OUT OF CNTRL NM AND WAS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR
DECREASING TSTMS UPSTREAM ACROSS SE AZ/NRN MEXICO. BAND OF
MORE-OR-LESS DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM SERN
CO INTO THE KLVS AREA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE
NERN NM PLAINS AND EXTREME SERN CO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND INFLOW FROM THE BAND OF STORMS ALONG
THE TX/NM BORDER WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE SVR THREATS...ESPECIALLY
TORNADO RISKS AS EFFECTIVE PARCELS BECOME ROOTED ABOVE THE SFC.

MEANWHILE...HIGHER SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FROM FAR W TX NEWD INTO
SERN/ECNTRL NM AND INTO THE FAR WRN TX PNHDL. HERE...MIXED STORM
MODES CONSISTING OF BOWS AND DISCRETE CELLS CONTINUE TO
THRIVE...FEEDING ON STRONGER INSTABILITY. H85-H7 SLY JET IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH 06Z COINCIDENT WITH THE EWD EDGING OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THREATS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. MOREOVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
TURNING AND MAINTENANCE OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE PARCELS WILL CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH DISCRETE CELLS. PARTS OF THE
REGION WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY.

..RACY.. 10/12/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...

34020786 36860717 37910512 37660322 35420249 33840269
31670436 31280578 31990714

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KABQ [120028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 120028
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
628 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0342 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW GALLUP 35.54N 108.78W
10/11/2008 M63.00 MPH MCKINLEY NM ASOS

0442 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RATON CREWS AIRPORT 36.73N 104.50W
10/11/2008 M59.00 MPH COLFAX NM ASOS

0550 PM HAIL MORIARTY 35.00N 106.04W
10/11/2008 M0.88 INCH TORRANCE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GUYER

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KBOI [120019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 120019
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
619 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HEAVY SNOW 16 E ROGERSON 42.18N 114.29W
10/11/2008 M9.1 INCH TWIN FALLS ID MESONET

MAGIC MOUNTAIN SNOTEL FROM 7 AM THROUGH 5 PM. 9 INCHES OF
SNOW AND 0.6 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT INCREASE
WITH TEMPERATURES 22F-24F. ELEVATION 4218 MSL.

0400 PM HEAVY SNOW 9 ESE THREE CREEK 42.01N 115.00W
10/11/2008 M6.0 INCH TWIN FALLS ID MESONET

WILSON CREEK SNOTEL PICKED UP 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH
0.5 SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT INCREASE FROM 6 AM THROUGH 4
PM. AIR TEMPERATURES 21F-25F.

0355 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SW KEATI 44.81N 117.73W
10/11/2008 M51.00 MPH BAKER OR MESONET

FLAGSTAFF HILL RAWS AT 3945 FEET REPORTED A WIND GUST TO
51 MPH. WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED ABOVE 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
GREATER THAN 40 MPH BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z.

0343 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 WSW HINES 43.52N 119.29W
10/11/2008 M44.00 MPH HARNEY OR MESONET

SAGE HEN RAWS AT 4400 FEET REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 44 MPH.

0343 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 N WAGONTIRE 43.34N 119.88W
10/11/2008 M52.00 MPH HARNEY OR MESONET

WAGONTIRE RAWS AT 6420 FEET REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 52
MPH. WIND GUSTS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 45 MPH BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z.

0253 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E BURNS 43.59N 118.96W
10/11/2008 M45.00 MPH HARNEY OR ASOS

BURNS ASOS REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

0153 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E BURNS 43.60N 118.96W
10/11/2008 M46.00 MPH HARNEY OR ASOS

BURNS ASOS REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 46 MPH.

0153 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE BAKER 44.84N 117.81W
10/11/2008 M45.00 MPH BAKER OR ASOS

BAKER CITY ASOS REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

0152 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 E BEULAH 43.90N 117.99W
10/11/2008 M45.00 MPH MALHEUR OR MESONET

KELSAY BUTTE RAWS AT 5187 FEET REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH...AND TO 46 MPH AT 552 PM MDT. GUSTS WERE 40-45 MPH
FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

1252 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE HUNTINGTON 44.33N 117.17W
10/11/2008 M48.00 MPH WASHINGTON ID MESONET

DEAD INDIAN RIDGE RAWS AT 3570 FEET REPORTED WIND GUSTS
TO 48 MPH AND TO 47 MPH AT 552 PM. RELIABLE GUSTS WERE
40-48 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...8AM-6PM MDT.

&&
VJM/JDS
$$

VMILLS

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KBOI [120018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 120018
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
618 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM SNOW 12 NE BOISE 43.73N 116.06W
10/10/2008 M4.4 INCH BOISE ID MESONET

BOGUS BASIN SNOTEL SNOW DEPTH INCREASED BY 4.4 INCHES
FROM 2 TO 8 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE 28F-32F. A NARROW BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVED SOUTH OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE
BOISE AIRPORT..PRODUCING 1.7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL 5-7 PM
BEFORE WEAKING AS IT CROSSED THE SNAKE RIVER SOUTH OF
KUNA. THIS WAS THE EARLIEST INCH-PLUS SNOWFALL RECORDED
AT BOISE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1898.

&&

$$

VMILLS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2329

ACUS11 KWNS 112351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112351
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-120115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2329
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/NERN NM AND WRN TX PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112351Z - 120115Z

SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF 10-20 KTS VEERING TO SWLY AOA 50 KTS AT 2-3KM
VIA PER THE FDX VAD WIND IS RESULTING IN ABOUT 400 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH
AND OVER 65 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. DISCRETE TSTM CELLS SEEM TO BE
MATURING AS SUPERCELLS IN A ZONE FROM JUST E OF KABQ TO KTCC WITHIN
A NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS HAVE
EXHIBITED LOW-LVL ROTATION AND GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR YET THIS EVENING.

STRONGER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH NERN NM AND
INTO THE FAR WRN TX PNHDL THROUGH MID-EVENING AS A WEAK IMPULSE
RIDES NEWD FROM CNTRL NM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STORM MODE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC IN SUSTAINING DISCRETE STORMS AS CELLS
MERGE/EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE. BUT...SMALL SCALE BOWS THAT FORM
DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SUPERCELLS INTO MERGING CLUSTERS MAY GIVE
DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HIGH-RESOLUTION RADAR IMAGES AND IF STORMS
CAN MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...A SHORT TERM TORNADO WATCH MAY
BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

..RACY.. 10/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

34900622 36500307 36360204 35610201 34860250 34280362
34120457 34650602

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 917

WWUS20 KWNS 112238
SEL7
SPC WW 112238
NMZ000-TXZ000-120500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 917
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
435 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FAR WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 435 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF EL PASO TEXAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CANNON
AFB NEW MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 916...

DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST/DEVELOP IN
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG SSW-NNE CONFLUENCE BAND IN FAR W
TX/SE NM. MORE ISOLD STORMS MAY FORM IN S CNTRL NM. COMBINATION OF
45+ KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR WITH SEASONABLY RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL/LCLY DMGG WIND. A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SE/E CNTRL NM...WHERE SFC SELY FLOW IS
GREATEST.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.

...CORFIDI

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KGJT [112229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 112229
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
429 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM HAIL 7 W DURANGO 37.29N 108.00W
10/11/2008 M0.50 INCH LA PLATA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TGJT

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KGJT [112207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 112207
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
407 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0351 PM HAIL 5 WSW DURANGO 37.26N 107.95W
10/11/2008 M0.88 INCH LA PLATA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TGJT

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2328

ACUS11 KWNS 112204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112204
TXZ000-NMZ000-112330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2328
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX...SCNTRL/SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112204Z - 112330Z

A NEW BAND OF DISCRETE TSTMS HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING FROM NRN
CHIHUAHUA INTO WRN HUDSPETH/ERN EL PASO COUNTIES IN TX AND CNTRL
OTERO COUNTY NM. IT IS TOUGH TO IDENTIFY ANYTHING IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THAT MAY BE AIDING IN LARGER SCALE ASCENT...BUT REGION DOES
REMAIN ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF THE GIANT GRT BASIN GYRE...LIKELY
RESULTING IN AT LEAST WEAK ASCENT.

REGION RESIDES WHERE THE STRONGEST HEATING OCCURRED THIS AFTN WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. AS A
RESULT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. SW MID-LVL FLOW OF 45-50 KTS ATOP
THE SELY SFC TRAJECTORIES ARE RESULTING IN A HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH SPLITTING SUPERCELLS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. IF A STORM CAN BECOME WELL-ESTABLISHED...AN
ISOLD TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR.

LATER THIS EVENING...MODELS AND SATL LOOPS SUGGEST THAT WARMING
ALOFT...TIED TO REMNANT TC NORBERT...WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THUS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME
MORE HOSTILE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FROM MID-LATE EVENING. UNTIL
THEN...HOWEVER...A WW MAY BE WARRANTED.

..RACY.. 10/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

31600665 33100550 33090422 32120377 31050400 30480441
30280534

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KCYS [112118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 112118
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
318 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0252 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
10/11/2008 M59 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

SUST 45 MPH

&&

$$

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KCYS [112118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 112118
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
317 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
10/11/2008 M59 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

&&

$$

SRUBIN

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 915

WWUS20 KWNS 112103
SEL5
SPC WW 112103
AZZ000-NMZ000-112100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 915
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
203 PM MST SAT OCT 11 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 915 ISSUED AT 625 AM MST FOR PORTIONS OF

ARIZONA
NEW MEXICO

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KABQ [112054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 112054
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
254 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW GALLUP 35.54N 108.78W
10/11/2008 M59.00 MPH MCKINLEY NM ASOS

0214 PM HAIL 5 WNW ALBUQUERQUE 35.15N 106.70W
10/11/2008 M1.00 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

MONTANO AND COORS.

0215 PM HAIL 4 WNW ALBUQUERQUE 35.14N 106.70W
10/11/2008 E0.88 INCH BERNALILLO NM CO-OP OBSERVER

MONTANO AND COORS... 0.70 TO 0.88 INCH HAIL OBSERVED

0217 PM HAIL 4 SW CORRALES 35.20N 106.67W
10/11/2008 M0.75 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

IRVING AND GOLF COURSE.

0218 PM HAIL RIO RANCHO 35.27N 106.66W
10/11/2008 E0.75 INCH SANDOVAL NM TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN AND 0.75 INCH HAIL OBSERVED

0219 PM HAIL RIO RANCHO 35.27N 106.66W
10/11/2008 M0.75 INCH SANDOVAL NM PUBLIC

HAIL OBSERVER AT INTERSECTION OF SOUTHERN AND UNSER.

0220 PM HAIL 5 W ALBUQUERQUE 35.13N 106.71W
10/11/2008 M1.00 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

WESTERN TRAIL AND UNSER.

0223 PM TSTM WND DMG ALBUQUERQUE 35.12N 106.62W
10/11/2008 BERNALILLO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREE LIMBS DOWN AT NORTH ENTRANCE TO COTTONWOOD
MALL

0225 PM TSTM WND DMG RIO RANCHO 35.27N 106.66W
10/11/2008 SANDOVAL NM PUBLIC

SEVERAL LARGE TREE LINBS DOWN AT COTTONWOOD MALL.

0232 PM TSTM WND DMG ALBUQUERQUE 35.12N 106.62W
10/11/2008 BERNALILLO NM BROADCAST MEDIA

4 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN AT THE HOBBY LOBBY AT EAGLE RANCH
AND IRVING.

0235 PM HAIL 4 SW CORRALES 35.20N 106.67W
10/11/2008 M0.75 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

IRVING AND GOLF COURSE. MULTIPLE 1 TO 2 INCH LIMBS DOWN.
LOTS OF LEAVES STRIPPED FROM TREES.

&&

$$

CJONES

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KCYS [112026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 112026
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
226 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0146 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
10/11/2008 M58 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

&&

$$

SRUBIN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2327

ACUS11 KWNS 112025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112024
NMZ000-AZZ000-112200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/EAST CENTRAL AZ...WRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 915...

VALID 112024Z - 112200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 915
CONTINUES.

LONG-LIVED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WHICH HAS EXHIBITED PERIODIC
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS HAS MOVED FROM SERN AZ INTO NRN GRANT CNTY
NM. THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE SWRN PART OF
WW 916 BY 21Z. OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS SERN AZ INTO SWRN/WEST
CENTRAL NM...ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING DATA HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN FLASH
DENSITY DURING THE LAST 1-2 HRS ESPECIALLY OVER SERN AZ.

WARM MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS REMAINING OVER PARTS OF SERN AND
EAST CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL DRY LINE
MOVING ACROSS ERN AZ. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD AIR ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN APPEAR TO BE NO LONGER
DIGGING SEWD. IN ADDITION...WARM AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING HURCN
NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD INTO SERN AZ AND SWRN
NM LIMITING FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DESPITE STRONG WINDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE REGION THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT
OF SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING OVER THIS AREA. UNLESS NEAR-TERM
OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY PRIOR TO
21Z...A NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED. UNDER THESE
CIRCUMSTANCES WFO/S TWC AND EPZ CAN LOCALLY EXTEND IN TIME PARTS OF
WW 915 IF NEEDED.

..WEISS.. 10/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...

31571166 33340998 35800896 35960736 35270742 33350763
31800809 31330851 31281101

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KFGZ [112021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KFGZ 112021
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
121 PM MST SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WINSLOW 35.03N 110.71W
10/11/2008 M64.00 MPH NAVAJO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HIGH WINDS BLEW ROOFS OFF TWO SINGLE-STORY, SINGLE-ROW
APARTMENT BUILDINGS. ONE OF THE ROOFS LANDED ON A CAR
CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE.

&&

$$

HOWARD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111957
SWODY1
SPC AC 111954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES...SRN HIGH PLAINS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS......

...SRN ROCKIES/SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE
SRN ROCKIES NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A
WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT EXISTS FROM SE AZ NEWD INTO NW NM. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT AND THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SLOWLY EXPAND EWD COVERAGE REACHING ERN NM...WEST TX AND SW
KS LATER THIS EVENING.

CONCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT...A POWERFUL 100 TO 115 KT
MID-LEVEL JET OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE NEWD THIS
AFTERNOON HELPING TO CREATE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. IN FACT...THE ALBUQUERQUE AND
ALAMOGORDO NM WSR-88D VWPS SHOW IMPRESSIVE WIND PROFILES WITH ABOUT
50 KT OF FLOW AT 2 TO 3 KM AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD
EASILY SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS IN SPITE OF THE WEAKER INSTABILITY IN
PLACE ATTM. THE RUC SUGGESTS SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 500
TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND INSTABILITY MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -7
TO -10 C RANGE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM...HAIL
WILL BE LIKELY WITH ROTATING STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WHERE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE ACCESS TO LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN A CORRIDOR FROM NE NM
INTO SW KS EARLY THIS EVENING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST
FAVORABLE. A SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND TX AREAS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY EXIST BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 10/11/2008

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KABQ [111934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 111934
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
134 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG FARMINGTON 36.75N 108.19W
10/11/2008 SAN JUAN NM NEWSPAPER

LARGE TREE DOWN ON AWNING AND CAR

1208 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S ALBUQUERQUE 35.04N 106.62W
10/11/2008 M58.00 MPH BERNALILLO NM ASOS

1241 PM HAIL 9 WSW CUBA 35.95N 107.09W
10/11/2008 M1.00 INCH SANDOVAL NM CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

GUYER

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KFGZ [111930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 111930
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1229 PM MST SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 ESE WINSLOW 34.99N 110.61W
10/11/2008 NAVAJO AZ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HIGH WINDS BLEW OVER AN 18-WHEELED TRACTOR-TRAILER RIG
AND A TRAVEL TRAILER ON INTERSTATE 40.

&&

$$

HOWARD

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 916

WWUS20 KWNS 111904
SEL6
SPC WW 111904
COZ000-NMZ000-120200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 916
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
LARGE PART OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TRINIDAD COLORADO TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO NEW MEXICO.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 915...

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD ACROSS NM
AHEAD OF THE VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND WIND MAX. WITH 50-60KT OF
SHEAR ALONG WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY EWD THRU THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
WINDS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG GRADIENT AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE MAIN
THREATS...HOWEVER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HALES

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KRIW [111848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 111848
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1244 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW THERMOPOLIS 0.2 SSW 43.64N 108.21W
10/11/2008 M6.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY COCORAHS

1002 AM HEAVY SNOW RED CANYON 42.69N 108.68W
10/11/2008 M9.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1003 AM HEAVY SNOW RIVERTON 43.03N 108.38W
10/11/2008 M6.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1013 AM HEAVY SNOW RIVERTON 2W 43.02N 108.42W
10/11/2008 M6.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1016 AM HEAVY SNOW LANDER 42.83N 108.72W
10/11/2008 M9.00 INCHES FREMONT WY E-SPOTTER

1022 AM HEAVY SNOW LANDER 5SW 42.77N 108.78W
10/11/2008 M11.50 INCHES FREMONT WY SPOTTER

1022 AM HEAVY SNOW LANDER (TOWN) 42.84N 108.74W
10/11/2008 M8.00 INCHES FREMONT WY COOP

1053 AM HEAVY SNOW RIVERTON 43.03N 108.37W
10/11/2008 M6.70 INCHES FREMONT WY COOP

1134 AM HEAVY SNOW SHELL CREEK SNOTEL 44.50N 107.43W
10/11/2008 E14.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY SNOTEL

1134 AM HEAVY SNOW SOUTH PASS SNOTEL 42.57N 108.84W
10/11/2008 E15.00 INCHES FREMONT WY SNOTEL

1135 AM HEAVY SNOW ST. LAWRENCE ALT SNOTEL 43.03N 109.17W
10/11/2008 E19.00 INCHES FREMONT WY SNOTEL

1136 AM HEAVY SNOW TOWNSEND CREEK SNOTEL 42.70N 108.90W
10/11/2008 E20.00 INCHES FREMONT WY SNOTEL

1137 AM HEAVY SNOW TIMBER CREEK SNOTEL 44.03N 109.18W
10/11/2008 E15.00 INCHES PARK WY SNOTEL

1139 AM HEAVY SNOW BALD MOUNTAIN SNOTEL 44.80N 107.84W
10/11/2008 E18.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY SNOTEL

1141 AM HEAVY SNOW BONE SPRINGS DIVIDE SNOTEL44.68N 107.58W
10/11/2008 E17.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY SNOTEL

1141 AM HEAVY SNOW BURROUGHS CREEK SNOTEL 43.70N 109.67W
10/11/2008 E12.00 INCHES FREMONT WY SNOTEL

1145 AM HEAVY SNOW CLOUD PEAK RESERVOIR SNOTEL44.40N 107.06W
10/11/2008 E13.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY SNOTEL

1148 AM HEAVY SNOW LANDER AIRPORT 42.80N 108.72W
10/11/2008 M14.70 INCHES FREMONT WY SPOTTER

1150 AM HEAVY SNOW HOBBS PARK SNOTEL 42.87N 109.09W
10/11/2008 E18.00 INCHES FREMONT WY SNOTEL

1152 AM HEAVY SNOW MARQUETTE SNOTEL 44.30N 109.24W
10/11/2008 E19.00 INCHES PARK WY SNOTEL

1152 AM HEAVY SNOW MIDDLE POWDER SNOTEL 43.63N 107.18W
10/11/2008 E12.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY SNOTEL

1232 PM HEAVY SNOW NWS RIVERTON 43.06N 108.47W
10/11/2008 M6.30 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS OFFICE

1244 PM HEAVY SNOW HUDSON 42.89N 108.58W
10/11/2008 M6.00 INCHES FREMONT WY UCOOP

&&

$$

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KPIH [111846]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 111846
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1245 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1244 PM SNOW POCATELLO 42.88N 112.47W
10/11/2008 U0.0 INCH BANNOCK ID UNKNOWN

ACCIDENT ON BENTON STREET OVER PASS

&&

$$

DPHELPS

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KTFX [111841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111841
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1240 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1236 PM HEAVY SNOW PONY 45.66N 111.89W
10/11/2008 M36.0 INCH MADISON MT CO-OP OBSERVER

24 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE 10TH DURING THE DAY, AN
ADDITIONAL 12 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. LOCATION IS ON
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE TOBACCO ROOT MOUNTAINS AT AN
ELEVATION OF 5500 FT

&&

$$

RPREWITT

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KPIH [111837]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 111837
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1237 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 AM SNOW NE RUPERT 42.62N 113.67W
10/11/2008 M4.0 INCH MINIDOKA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOW

0930 AM SNOW 5 ESE HEYBURN 42.53N 113.67W
10/11/2008 M3.0 INCH MINIDOKA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOW

0930 AM SNOW 7 W BURLEY 42.54N 113.93W
10/11/2008 M5.0 INCH JEROME ID TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOW

0945 AM SNOW RUPERT 42.62N 113.67W
10/11/2008 M6.0 INCH MINIDOKA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOW

1015 AM SNOW RUPERT 42.62N 113.67W
10/11/2008 M2.0 INCH MINIDOKA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

1030 AM SNOW 8 E BURLEY 42.54N 113.63W
10/11/2008 M2.0 INCH CASSIA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOW

1030 AM SNOW BURLEY 42.54N 113.79W
10/11/2008 M6.0 INCH CASSIA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOW

1030 AM SNOW 4 W CONANT 42.27N 113.53W
10/11/2008 E3.0 INCH CASSIA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOW

1030 AM SNOW RUPERT 42.62N 113.67W
10/11/2008 E4.0 INCH MINIDOKA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOW

1100 AM SNOW ABERDEEN 42.94N 112.84W
10/11/2008 M2.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOW

1100 AM SNOW BURLEY 42.54N 113.79W
10/11/2008 U0.0 INCH CASSIA ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOW EVERY WHERE AND ACCIDENTS ALL OVER THE PLACE

1120 AM SNOW MONTPELIER 42.32N 111.30W
10/11/2008 E4.0 INCH BEAR LAKE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOW

1120 AM SNOW BENNINGTON 42.38N 111.32W
10/11/2008 M4.0 INCH BEAR LAKE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOW

1120 AM SNOW HEYBURN 42.56N 113.76W
10/11/2008 U0.0 INCH MINIDOKA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

HWY 77 AND 81 ARE REPORTED TO BE VERY SLICK

1200 AM SNOW COLD WATER 42.62N 113.12W
10/11/2008 U0.0 INCH POWER ID DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ACCIDENT INVOLVING SEMI TRAILER BLOCKING HWY

0600 AM SNOW 18 SE BURLEY 42.35N 113.54W
10/11/2008 E10.0 INCH CASSIA ID MESONET

NEW SNOW

0600 AM SNOW 14 E PRESTON 42.10N 111.60W
10/11/2008 E3.0 INCH FRANKLIN ID MESONET

NEW SNOW

0600 AM SNOW 28 NE STANLEY 44.50N 114.54W
10/11/2008 E4.0 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

NEW SNOW

0600 AM SNOW 24 N CHALLIS 44.85N 114.22W
10/11/2008 E2.0 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

NEW SNOW

0600 AM SNOW 30 NNW ARCO 44.03N 113.53W
10/11/2008 E3.0 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

NEW SNOW

0600 AM SNOW 17 SW MACKAY 43.74N 113.85W
10/11/2008 E3.0 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

0600 AM SNOW 30 NW CHALLIS 44.81N 114.66W
10/11/2008 E8.0 INCH LEMHI ID MESONET

NEW SNOW

0853 AM SNOW HAMER 43.93N 112.20W
10/11/2008 U0.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FROM EXIT 150 TO MONTANA STATE LINE THE ROAD IS CLOSED
DUE TO SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY

&&

$$

DPHELPS

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KREV [111812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KREV 111812
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1112 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 AM SNOW 1 SSW Yerington Municip 38.99N 119.17W
10/10/2008 E0.0 INCH LYON NV TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW BEGAN AT 8 AM. SNOW FALLING HEAVIER NOW AND IT JUST
BEGAN STICKING ON GRASS. CURRENTLY 32 DEGREES.

0948 AM SNOW YERINGTON 38.99N 119.16W
10/10/2008 E1.0 INCH LYON NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALLING WITH 1 INCH ON THE GROUND.

0954 AM SNOW 3 WSW Yerington Municip 38.99N 119.26W
10/10/2008 M2.0 INCH LYON NV TRAINED SPOTTER

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED WITH 2
INCHES ON THE GROUND.

0955 AM SNOW 5 SSW Yerington Municip 38.94N 119.19W
10/10/2008 M1.0 INCH LYON NV TRAINED SPOTTER

1.25 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED SINCE 8AM AT 4,420
FEET.

1006 AM SNOW DAGGET PASS 38.98N 119.89W
10/10/2008 M0.5 INCH DOUGLAS NV CO-OP OBSERVER

0.50 INCHES CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND WITH MODERATE SNOW
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED.

1013 AM SNOW 6 WSW GARDNERVILLE 38.91N 119.84W
10/10/2008 M0.5 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SINCE 7AM WITH 0.50 INCHES CURRENTLY ON
THE GROUND.

1023 AM SNOW NW SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 38.94N 119.99W
10/10/2008 M0.2 INCH EL DORADO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0.25 INCHES CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW BEING REPORTED.

1158 AM SNOW SPANISH SPRINGS 39.62N 119.72W
10/10/2008 E1.5 INCH WASHOE NV NWS EMPLOYEE

AT PYRAMID HWY AND LA POSADA ROAD. ACCUMULATION ON GRASS
BUT ROADS STILL WET. MODERATE SNOW FALLING.

1200 PM SNOW 2 NE SPANISH SPRINGS 39.64N 119.69W
10/10/2008 M3.0 INCH WASHOE NV NWS EMPLOYEE

3 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE SIDE OF THE PYRAMID LAKE HIGHWAY
WITH 1 INCH ON THE ROAD.

1201 PM SNOW 3 WSW Yerington Municip 38.99N 119.21W
10/10/2008 M3.0 INCH LYON NV TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SINCE 8 AM. SNOW ENDED JUST BEFORE NOON.

1223 PM SNOW 7 NE SPANISH SPRINGS 39.75N 119.63W
10/10/2008 M2.5 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

2.5 INCHES TOTAL SNOW IN PALOMINO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SNOW IS TAPERING OFF.

1257 PM SNOW SPANISH SPRINGS 39.62N 119.72W
10/10/2008 E3.0 INCH WASHOE NV NWS EMPLOYEE

TOTAL ON UNPAVED SURFACES. ROADS STILL WET. SNOW
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY.

0119 PM SNOW N RENO 39.54N 119.82W
10/10/2008 M2.2 INCH WASHOE NV NWS EMPLOYEE

AT WFO RENO SINCE 11 AM. CURRENTLY LIGHT SNOW. ROADS
MAINLY WET.

0124 PM SNOW 4 SSW RENO 39.49N 119.86W
10/10/2008 M1.0 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

AT CAUGHLIN RANCH. CURRENT VISIBILITY BELOW ONE HALF MILE
IN HEAVY SNOW.

0419 PM SNOW ESE JUNE LAKE 37.78N 119.08W
10/10/2008 M1.5 INCH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

STEADY SNOW STILL FALLING.

0425 PM SNOW LEE VINING 37.96N 119.12W
10/10/2008 M2.0 INCH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL TOTAL ON UNPAVED SURFACES SINCE 130 PM. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION ON ROADS. CURRENTLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW FALLING.

0525 PM SNOW ENE JUNE LAKE 37.78N 119.08W
10/10/2008 E6.0 INCH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED AT 7600 FEET

0530 PM SNOW JUNE LAKE 37.78N 119.08W
10/10/2008 E3.0 INCH MONO CA PUBLIC

REPORTED AT GULL LAKE MARINA

0724 PM SNOW 7 NE SPANISH SPRINGS 39.69N 119.63W
10/10/2008 E2.5 INCH WASHOE NV NWS EMPLOYEE

2.5 INCHES ON GROUND WITH 0.42 INCHES LIQUID IN PALOMINO
VALLEY.

0838 PM SNOW SPANISH SPRINGS 39.62N 119.72W
10/10/2008 M3.0 INCH WASHOE NV NWS EMPLOYEE

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. 0.25 LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT.

0828 AM HEAVY SNOW MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.96W
10/11/2008 M5.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

5 INCHES NEW SNOW MEASURED THIS MORNING. 0.39 INCHES
WATER EQUIVALENT. ELEVATION 7800 FEET.

0847 AM SNOW 9 SSE RENO 39.54N 119.82W
10/11/2008 M2.0 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES NEW SNOW OVERNIGHT. OFF TOLL RD NEAR HIGHWAY
341.

0948 AM SNOW 5 SSE HOMEWOOD 39.01N 120.12W
10/11/2008 E1.5 INCH EL DORADO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED ONE OR TWO INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL. LOCATION
NEAR RUBICON BAY ON SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LAKE TAHOE.

0948 AM SNOW BRIDGEPORT 38.26N 119.22W
10/11/2008 M2.5 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

2.5 INCHES NEW SNOW. ELEVATION 8300 FEET.

1018 AM HEAVY SNOW BODIE 38.21N 119.01W
10/11/2008 M4.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

4.0 INCHES NEW SNOW AT BODIE STATE PARK. ELEVATION 8300
FEET.

1018 AM SNOW 3 SE HAWTHORNE 38.52N 118.59W
10/11/2008 M0.5 INCH MINERAL NV TRAINED SPOTTER

0.5 INCHES NEW SNOW JUST OUTSIDE OF HAWTHORNE. ELEVATION
4350 FEET.

1018 AM SNOW SPANISH SPRINGS 39.62N 119.72W
10/11/2008 M3.0 INCH WASHOE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

3 INCHES SNOW TOTAL OVER LAST 24 HOURS. NEAR PYRAMID
HIGHWAY AND LA POSADA.

1018 AM SNOW VIRGINIA CITY 39.31N 119.64W
10/11/2008 M2.0 INCH STOREY NV CO-OP OBSERVER

2 INCHES NEW SNOW IN VIRGINIA CITY. ELEVATION 6340 FEET.

&&

$$

HOON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2326

ACUS11 KWNS 111757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111756
NMZ000-AZZ000-111930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2326
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AZ/WRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 915...

VALID 111756Z - 111930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 915
CONTINUES.

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WW 915.

STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS SERN/EAST CENTRAL AZ INTO WRN NM
WITHIN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EMANATING FROM HURCN NORBERT. A
PERSISTENT RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL HAS BEEN TRACKING ENEWD ACROSS NRN
COCHISE CNTY AZ DURING THE LAST HOUR...AND OTHER STORMS ARE
INCREASING IN A NE-SW LINE FROM EXTREME SRN NAVAJO CNTY AZ INTO SRN
PINAL CNTY AZ.

THE INTERACTION OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE COLD WRN TROUGH WITH THE WRN
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME IS PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORMS. LATEST VAD PROFILES EXHIBIT VERY STRONG SWLY
WINDS/VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH 50 KT FLOW WITHIN 1-2 KM AGL AND A
100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NRN AZ. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WHERE LOCALIZED HEATING WILL
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DRYING AND PRESSURE RISES. THIS INDICATES
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..WEISS.. 10/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

31711168 33471125 35231078 35991055 36100937 36090782
35870728 34380752 31770808 31350849 31351017 31371118
31531160

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111714
SWODY2
SPC AC 111711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS FORECAST IS
TO LIFT QUICKLY NEWD TONIGHT AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FROM
THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A
LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED IN ERN CO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOSTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BE ONGOING
ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE. DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH
THE LOWER 60S F AND THE MOIST LAYER IS FORECAST TO EXTEND TO ABOUT
700 MB.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE
CNTRL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE ERN PART OF THIS JET
SHOULD INFLUENCE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA CREATING MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES REACHING 45 TO 55
KT. THIS ALONG WITH ALONG WITH A GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
BELOW 700 MB EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT
FOR ROTATING STORMS. DUE TO THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY
FORECAST...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A
TORNADO WITH ANY DOMINANT SUPERCELL THAT CAN PERSIST DURING MAX
HEATING. ANY ROTATING STORM WOULD LIKELY HAVE A THREAT FOR WIND
DAMAGE AND/OR A LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
WOULD LIKELY BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA WHERE STORMS ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE SFC-BASED.

..BROYLES.. 10/11/2008

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KFGZ [111643]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 111643
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
943 AM MST SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WINSLOW 35.03N 110.71W
10/11/2008 M64.00 MPH NAVAJO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HIGH WINDS BLEW OFF A PORTION OF AN APARTMENT COMPLEX
ROOF.

&&

$$

HOWARD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2325

ACUS11 KWNS 111638
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111638
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-112045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WY/S CNTRL MT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 111638Z - 112045Z

MDT TO HVY SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WY/MT NEAR
THE BIGHORN BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. BY THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME
SNOWFALL RATES/ACCUMULATIONS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE...WITH 3 IN/HR
RATES POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW AND POLAR JET MAX WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NEWD. AS THIS OCCURS...PORTIONS OF WY/MT WILL
REMAIN UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INTENSIFYING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. FURTHERMORE...MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE NORBERT IS QUICKLY BEING ADVECTED NWD...EVIDENCED IN GOES
PWAT IMAGERY. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO INTENSIFYING SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES GREATER THAN OR EQUAL 3
INCHES...AND LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER AND EAST
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BIG HORN...ABSAROKA...AND WIND RIVER
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL MOTION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES...EVEN LOWER VALLEYS WILL
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

FARTHER S OF THESE AREAS IN SWRN/S CNTRL WY AND NERN UT...HEAVY
SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 2-3 INCHES AN HOUR MAY BE POSSIBLE BY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE SNOW/THUNDERSNOW.

..HURLBUT.. 10/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...

42230835 41860991 42891087 43991121 45271099 45640982
45640806 44790696 43210700 42520755

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111611
SWODY1
SPC AC 111608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN AZ INTO THE SRN HI
PLAINS...

...SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION...

UNSEASONABLY INTENSE UPPER LOW AND AN ACCOMPANYING VERY STRONG POLAR
JET MAX INITIALLY OVER SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SHIFTS NEWD THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY BECOMING INVOLVED
WITH THE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. ONE SOURCE FROM
HURRICANE NORBERT HAS SPREAD NEWD ACROSS ERN AZ/WRN NM THIS AM.
ADDITIONALLY GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE MOVING NWD THRU SRN HIGH
PLAINS.

SHALLOW COLD AIR HAS SETTLED SWD E OF CENTRAL ROCKIES TO A POSITION
FROM WRN KS/WRN OK PANHANDLE AND THEN WWD TO HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
CO/NM BORDER. STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW CENTRAL UT
SWD E OF PHX THEN TO AZ/MEX BORDER.

VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ARE SPREADING EWD ACROSS ERN AZ/NM AS
100 PLUS KT 500 MB JET ROTATES ACROSS NRN AZ INTO NWRN NM/WRN CO.

...ERN AZ/WRN NM...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS AM AS THE NORBERT
MOISTURE WAS DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO ERN AZ.
STRONG/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG PER
12Z TUS SOUNDING SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS...HOWEVER MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS.

STORMS NOW IN ERN AZ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THEY DEVELOP INTO WRN NM THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE HAIL/WIND PRIMARY THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
OBSERVED STRONG CINH THIS AM ACROSS SRN HI PLAINS EXPECTED TO ERODE
SUFFICIENTLY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED INITIATION. WITH LOW
60F DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE 70S ERN NM...MLCAPES SHOULD
INCREASE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE PROGGED 50-60
KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NERN NM. STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SERN CORNER
CO...NWRN TX/WRN OK PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE
OR TWO TORNADO SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
VICINITY SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE WHICH COULD MIX NWD BACK INTO SWRN KS
BY THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER S THRU
ERN NM/WRN TX BY THIS EVENING.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 10/11/2008

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KRIW [111608]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 111608
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1003 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

830 PM HEAVY SNOW THERMOPOLIS 0.2 SSW 43.64N 108.21W
10/11/2008 M6.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY COCORAHS

1002 AM HEAVY SNOW RED CANYON 42.69N 108.68W
10/11/2008 E9.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1003 AM HEAVY SNOW RIVERTON 43.03N 108.37W
10/11/2008 E6.20 INCHES FREMONT WY COOP

1003 AM HEAVY SNOW RIVERTON 43.03N 108.38W
10/11/2008 E6.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

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KBYZ [111602]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 111602
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1002 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0946 AM STORM TOTAL SNOW 8 WNW MELVILLE 46.15N 110.10W
10/11/2008 E11.0 INCH SWEET GRASS MT

0932 AM STORM TOTAL SNOW 2 S RED LODGE 45.16N 109.25W
10/11/2008 E22.0 INCH CARBON MT

0924 AM STORM TOTAL SNOW FORT SMITH 45.31N 107.92W
10/11/2008 E7.0 INCH BIG HORN MT

0923 AM STORM TOTAL SNOW 8 SE BIG TIMBER 45.77N 109.80W
10/11/2008 E10.0 INCH SWEET GRASS MT

0915 AM STORM TOTAL SNOW 15 NW COLUMBUS 45.82N 109.42W
10/11/2008 E12.0 INCH STILLWATER MT

2 TO 3 FOOT DRIFTS

0901 AM STORM TOTAL SNOW RED LODGE 45.19N 109.25W
10/11/2008 E18.0 INCH CARBON MT

0900 AM STORM TOTAL SNOW 4 SE ROSCOE 45.31N 109.42W
10/11/2008 E25.0 INCH CARBON MT

STILL SNOWING

0900 AM STORM TOTAL SNOW 6 S ROSCOE 45.24N 109.47W
10/11/2008 E24.0 INCH CARBON MT

STILL SNOWING

0900 AM STORM TOTAL SNOW NYE 45.43N 109.80W
10/11/2008 E19.0 INCH STILLWATER MT

0832 AM STORM TOTAL SNOW 10 SW RYEGATE 46.18N 109.37W
10/11/2008 E8.0 INCH GOLDEN VALLEY MT

DRIFTING UP TO KNEES

0800 AM STORM TOTAL SNOW 13 ENE WILSALL 46.09N 110.43W
10/11/2008 E7.5 INCH PARK MT SNOTEL

0724 AM SNOW FORT SMITH 45.31N 107.92W
10/11/2008 E6.0 INCH BIG HORN MT

0700 AM DEPTH 2.8 WNW BILLINGS 45.80N 108.59W
10/11/2008 E7.00 YELLOWSTONE MT COCORAHS

0700 AM STORM TOTAL SNOW 11.9 WNW DAYTON 44.96N 107.47W
10/11/2008 E8.0 INCH SHERIDAN WY COCORAHS

0700 AM DEPTH 11.9 WNW DAYTON 44.96N 107.47W
10/11/2008 E9.00 SHERIDAN WY COCORAHS

0700 AM DEPTH JOLIET 45.49N 108.97W
10/11/2008 E6.00 CARBON MT NWS COOP

0700 AM SNOW 4 SE REED POINT 45.68N 109.47W
10/11/2008 E6.0 INCH STILLWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL. 0.54" LIQUID.

0700 AM DEPTH 5.4 ENE BILLINGS 45.83N 108.44W
10/11/2008 E6.50 YELLOWSTONE MT COCORAHS

0700 AM DEPTH 5.9 NNW ROBERTS 45.44N 109.19W
10/11/2008 E12.00 CARBON MT COCORAHS

&&

$$

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KTFX [111601]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111601
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1000 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM HEAVY SNOW 23 SW LIMA 44.40N 112.92W
10/11/2008 M10.2 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL AT BEAGLE SPRINGS SNOTEL...ELEVATION 8850
FT.

0930 AM HEAVY SNOW 15 SW JACKSON 45.21N 113.63W
10/11/2008 M11.8 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL AT DARKHORSE LAKE SNOTEL...ELEVATION 8600
FT.

0930 AM HEAVY SNOW 13 WSW GLEN 45.40N 112.94W
10/11/2008 M7.4 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL AT MULE CREEK SNOTEL...ELEVATION 8300 FT.

0930 AM HEAVY SNOW 17 NE BOZEMAN 45.85N 110.79W
10/11/2008 E12.4 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL AT BRACKETT CREEK SNOTEL...ELEVATION 7320
FT.

0930 AM HEAVY SNOW 22 NW WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.89N 111.42W
10/11/2008 M10.3 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL AT CARROT BASIN SNOTEL...ELEVATION 9000
FT.

0930 AM HEAVY SNOW 14 NE BOZEMAN 45.82N 110.84W
10/11/2008 M10.8 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL AT SACAJAWEA SNOTEL...ELEVATION 6550 FT.

0930 AM HEAVY SNOW 15 NW ENNIS 45.50N 111.95W
10/11/2008 M25.1 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL AT LOWER TWIN SNOTEL...ELEVATION 7900 FT.

&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KPSR [111403]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 111403
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
703 AM MST SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM TSTM WND GST GLOBE 33.38N 110.75W
10/11/2008 M55.00 MPH GILA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

INIGUEZ

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KVEF [111356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 111356
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
656 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0952 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DAGGETT 34.86N 116.88W
10/10/2008 M43.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA ASOS

1254 PM NON-TSTM WND GST KINGMAN 35.21N 114.03W
10/10/2008 M44.00 MPH MOHAVE AZ ASOS

0213 PM NON-TSTM WND GST TWEEDS POINT RAWS 36.58N 113.73W
10/10/2008 M44.00 MPH MOHAVE AZ MESONET

0245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WELL 5B (NTS A05) 36.80N 115.98W
10/10/2008 M74.00 MPH NYE NV OTHER FEDERAL

0250 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BISHOP 37.37N 118.40W
10/10/2008 M52.00 MPH INYO CA ASOS

THE PEAK WIND GUST AT THE BISHOP AIRPORT ASOS WAS 52 MPH
FROM THE NORTH. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER FROM THE
NORTH WERE REPORTED FROM 156 PM TO 457 PM.

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE DYER 37.61N 117.99W
10/10/2008 M41.00 MPH ESMERALDA NV MESONET

0306 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HURRICANE RAWS 36.70N 113.21W
10/10/2008 M46.00 MPH MOHAVE AZ MESONET

0314 PM NON-TSTM WND GST OPAL MOUNTAIN RAWS 35.15N 117.18W
10/10/2008 M46.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

THE PEAK WIND GUST AT THE OPAL MOUNTAIN RAWS WAS 46 MPH.
WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WERE RECORDED FROM 214 PM
THROUGH 614 PM.

0320 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ESE INDEPENDENCE 36.78N 118.13W
10/10/2008 M66.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 11 REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
66 MPH FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT AN ELEVATION OF 3761
FEET. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WERE REPORTED FROM
320 PM THROUGH 930 PM.

0320 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SW INDEPENDENCE 36.75N 118.25W
10/10/2008 M58.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 7 RECORDED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
58 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AT AN ELEVATION OF 5167 FEET.
WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WERE RECORDED AT THIS
SITE FROM 320 PM THROUGH 710 PM.

0350 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WHITE HILLS 35.71N 114.37W
10/10/2008 M41.00 MPH MOHAVE AZ MESONET

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE INDEPENDENCE 36.77N 118.19W
10/10/2008 M62.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 62 MPH FROM THE NORTH WAS RECORDED AT
SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 9 AT AN ELEVATION OF 4061 FEET.
WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WERE RECORDED AT THIS
SITE FROM 240 PM THROUGH 740 PM.

0442 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW INDEPENDENCE 36.84N 118.27W
10/10/2008 M50.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

A 50 MPH PEAK WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT THE OAK CREEK
RAWS SITE. GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WERE OBSERVED AT
THIS SITE FROM 342 PM TO 742 PM.

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SE INDEPENDENCE 36.77N 118.16W
10/10/2008 M65.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 65 MPH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WAS
RECORDED AT SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 10 AT AN ELEVATION
OF 3868 FEET. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WERE
RECORDED AT THIS SITE FROM 220 PM THROUGH 840 PM.

0508 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MOUNT LOGAN RAWS 36.35N 113.20W
10/10/2008 M52.00 MPH MOHAVE AZ MESONET

0545 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE DESERT ROCK (NTS 36.66N 116.00W
10/10/2008 M47.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 47 MPH WAS RECORDED AT THE NTS A30
MESONET SITE ON THE NEVADA TEST RANGE. WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH OR GREATER WERE RECORDED AT THIS SITE FROM 400 PM
THROUGH 630 PM.

0552 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DESERT ROCK AIRPORT 36.62N 116.03W
10/10/2008 M40.00 MPH NYE NV ASOS

0620 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW INDEPENDENCE 36.77N 118.28W
10/10/2008 M55.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 1 RECORDED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
55 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 5697 FEET. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH
OR GREATER WERE RECORDED FROM 530 PM THROUGH 730 PM.

0651 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SQUAW SPRINGS RAWS 35.37N 117.57W
10/10/2008 M46.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

0740 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BARSTOW-DAGGETT AP 34.85N 116.79W
10/10/2008 M45.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA ASOS

0914 PM NON-TSTM WND GST TONOPAH RANGE (KBJN) 37.62N 116.26W
10/10/2008 M51.00 MPH NYE NV ASOS

A PEAK WIND GUST OF 51 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE KBKN ASOS
ON THE TONOPAH RANGE AREA OF THE NEVADA TEST SITE. WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH GREATER WERE OBSERVED AT THIS LOCATION
FROM 556 PM TO 1056 PM.

1034 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RED ROCK CANYON 36.14N 115.45W
10/10/2008 M45.00 MPH CLARK NV MESONET

RED ROCK CANYON RAWS SITE MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 45
MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WERE RECORDED FROM
834 PM THROUGH 1034 PM.

0358 AM NON-TSTM WND GST TWENTYNINE PALMS MCAS 34.23N 116.06W
10/11/2008 M43.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA ASOS

WIND GUSTS OF 41 MPH OR GREATER WERE REPORTED AT KNXP
STARTING AT 1256 AM.

&&
THIS IS A SUMMERY OF SELECTED WIND GUSTS FROM ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
$$

SC/BKF/CTS

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KUNR [111351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 111351
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
751 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM HEAVY SNOW 17 N RECLUSE 44.99N 105.70W
10/11/2008 M5.0 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MERICKSO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Amend 1

ACUS01 KWNS 111335
SWODY1
SPC AC 111332

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0832 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

VALID 111325Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO SERN AZ...

AMENDED FOR SVR POTENTIAL SERN AZ/SWRN NM.

SVR POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS SERN AZ/SWRN NM. REF
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2324 AND WW 915 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....

POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
THIS MORNING...WHILE PLUME OF TROPICAL MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE NORBERT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO POSE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW WEAK IMPULSES AND
INCREASING FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION EMBEDDED IN THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM HURRICANE NORBERT. THESE FEATURES WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO PARTS OF
NM/TX/SOUTHWEST KS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
110+ KNOT MID LEVEL JET ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF WESTERN TROUGH AND
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL COMMENCE BY
EVENING OVER CO/NM...FURTHER ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RATHER LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND AT LEAST SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT
UPDRAFT INTENSITY WITH STORMS OVER CENTRAL NM AND SOUTHERN CO.
NEVERTHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN ANY STORMS.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL
REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST TX THROUGH THE DAY.
POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING WILL HELP TO YIELD LATE AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ALONG THIS ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS
WESTERN NEB...SUGGESTING A RISK OF STRONG CELLS AND HAIL DURING THE
EVENING IF MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

..EDWARDS.. 10/11/2008

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 915

WWUS20 KWNS 111323
SEL5
SPC WW 111323
AZZ000-NMZ000-112100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 915
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 AM MST SAT OCT 11 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF EASTERN ARIZONA
PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 625 AM UNTIL
200 PM MST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SIERRA VISTA ARIZONA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF GALLUP NEW
MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...INTENSE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OVER SRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SPREADING NEWD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY WITH STRONG SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES IN PLACE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23040.

...HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2324

ACUS11 KWNS 111254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111253
NMZ000-AZZ000-111500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN AZ...SWRN NM.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111253Z - 111500Z

OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN TO SVR
LEVELS. SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING GUSTS
AND ISOLATED SVR HAIL.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION DIGGING EWD/ESEWD ACROSS NRN BAJA AND NWRN SONORA...S
OF LARGE UPPER CYCLONE PIVOTING EWD ACROSS SRN NV. TWO ASSOCIATED
EFFECTS APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS
REGION...
1. TIGHTENING OF HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT AND RESULTANT ENHANCEMENT TO
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...
2. INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RELATED
ENHANCEMENT TO LAPSE RATES ALOFT...VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH
SUFFICIENT SFC THETAE FOR FAVORABLE BUOYANCY.

EACH WAS WELL SAMPLED BY 12Z TUS RAOB...WHICH EXHIBITED MLCAPE
AROUND 1100 J/KG AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WITH 0-1 KM
SRH APCHG 300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE APPROXIMATELY 60
KT. EVEN NEAR PREDAWN SFC THERMAL MIN...12Z TUS RAOB AND MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ARE SFC-BASED. THIS
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR ANY STG-SVR GUSTS GENERATED ALOFT TO
ENCOUNTER MINIMAL DOWNWARD INHIBITION TO THEIR INTENSITY WHEN
REACHING SFC. EXPECT BUOYANCY TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND N OF THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OFF PACIFIC HURRICANE NORBERT.

..EDWARDS.. 10/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

31790735 31770818 31330818 31331106 31731229 33581117
33811029 33300937 33360766 32900735

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111222
SWODY1
SPC AC 111219

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
THIS MORNING...WHILE PLUME OF TROPICAL MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE NORBERT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO POSE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW WEAK IMPULSES AND
INCREASING FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION EMBEDDED IN THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM HURRICANE NORBERT. THESE FEATURES WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO PARTS OF
NM/TX/SOUTHWEST KS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
110+ KNOT MID LEVEL JET ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF WESTERN TROUGH AND
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL COMMENCE BY
EVENING OVER CO/NM...FURTHER ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RATHER LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND AT LEAST SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT
UPDRAFT INTENSITY WITH STORMS OVER CENTRAL NM AND SOUTHERN CO.
NEVERTHELESS...STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN ANY STORMS.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL
REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST TX THROUGH THE DAY.
POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING WILL HELP TO YIELD LATE AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ALONG THIS ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS
WESTERN NEB...SUGGESTING A RISK OF STRONG CELLS AND HAIL DURING THE
EVENING IF MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

..HART/GRAMS.. 10/11/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110817
SWOD48
SPC AC 110816

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF -- ALREADY APPARENT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASE STEADILY WITH TIME...WITH VERY
DRASTIC DIFFERENCES EVIDENT BY LATE IN THE DAY 6 PERIOD.

PRIOR TO THIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS DAYS 4 AND 5 /TUE. AND WED. OCT. 14 AND 15/ SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT MINIMAL INSTABILITY AT BEST
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 10/11/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110700
SWODY3
SPC AC 110657

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE SSWWD
INTO THE DESERT SW IS FORECAST TO SEPARATE INTO TWO DISTINCT
FEATURES THIS PERIOD -- THE NRN FEATURE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE/NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THE
SRN FEATURE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AS AN INCREASINGLY-CUTOFF
LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY...AND SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

...PARTS OF E CENTRAL AND SERN NM AND ADJACENT PARTS OF W TX...
COMBINATION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR INVOF THE
TRAILING END OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT -- PARTICULARLY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED ATTM GIVEN
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL/LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..GOSS.. 10/11/2008

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