DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111957
SWODY1
SPC AC 111954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES...SRN HIGH PLAINS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS......

...SRN ROCKIES/SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE
SRN ROCKIES NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A
WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT EXISTS FROM SE AZ NEWD INTO NW NM. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT AND THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SLOWLY EXPAND EWD COVERAGE REACHING ERN NM...WEST TX AND SW
KS LATER THIS EVENING.

CONCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT...A POWERFUL 100 TO 115 KT
MID-LEVEL JET OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE NEWD THIS
AFTERNOON HELPING TO CREATE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. IN FACT...THE ALBUQUERQUE AND
ALAMOGORDO NM WSR-88D VWPS SHOW IMPRESSIVE WIND PROFILES WITH ABOUT
50 KT OF FLOW AT 2 TO 3 KM AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD
EASILY SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS IN SPITE OF THE WEAKER INSTABILITY IN
PLACE ATTM. THE RUC SUGGESTS SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 500
TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND INSTABILITY MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -7
TO -10 C RANGE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM...HAIL
WILL BE LIKELY WITH ROTATING STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WHERE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE ACCESS TO LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN A CORRIDOR FROM NE NM
INTO SW KS EARLY THIS EVENING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST
FAVORABLE. A SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND TX AREAS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY EXIST BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 10/11/2008

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