KBIS [152159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 152159
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
459 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0457 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 S MYLO 48.59N 99.62W
03/15/2013 M8.0 INCH ROLETTE ND PUBLIC


&&

$$

AJ

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KDLH [152155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 152155
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
455 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 PM SNOW 1 S SOLON SPRINGS 46.33N 91.82W
03/15/2013 M0.5 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL FROM THIS MORNING. NOT SNOWING CURRENTLY.

0452 PM SNOW 5 WSW SOLON SPRINGS 46.32N 91.92W
03/15/2013 M0.5 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL FROM THIS MORNING. NOT SNOWING CURRENTLY.


&&

$$

MILLER

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KFGF [152149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 152149
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
448 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0448 PM SNOW 6 NE HATTON 47.70N 97.37W
03/15/2013 M2.5 INCH GRAND FORKS ND PUBLIC


&&

$$

DKELLENB

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KUNR [152145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 152145
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
344 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0256 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
03/15/2013 M46 MPH HARDING SD ASOS


&&

$$

JC

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KFGF [152143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 152143
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
443 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 PM SNOW GRAND FORKS 47.92N 97.07W
03/15/2013 M2.4 INCH GRAND FORKS ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

TOTAL SNOW SO FAR AS OF 430PM

0442 PM SNOW 5 E STARKWEATHER 48.45N 98.77W
03/15/2013 M4.0 INCH RAMSEY ND CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

DKELLENB

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KBIS [152120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 152120
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
420 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 PM SNOW HARVEY 47.77N 99.94W
03/15/2013 M4.0 INCH WELLS ND BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

AJ

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KTFX [152120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 152120
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
320 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E MARYSVILLE 46.73N 112.16W
03/15/2013 M55 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

55 MPH GUST MEASURED AT 950 AM.


&&

$$

NJL

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KBIS [152059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 152059
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0343 PM SNOW MOHALL 48.76N 101.51W
03/15/2013 E3.0 INCH RENVILLE ND BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

AJ

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KBIS [152059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 152059
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0343 PM SNOW MINOT 48.23N 101.30W
03/15/2013 M4.5 INCH WARD ND BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

AJ

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KBIS [152058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 152058
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
358 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0341 PM SNOW GRANVILLE 48.27N 100.84W
03/15/2013 E5.0 INCH MCHENRY ND PUBLIC


&&

$$

AJ

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KBIS [152057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 152057
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
357 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM SNOW BOTTINEAU 48.83N 100.44W
03/15/2013 M5.5 INCH BOTTINEAU ND BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

AJ

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KBIS [152056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 152056
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
356 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0301 PM SNOW DES LACS 48.26N 101.56W
03/15/2013 M4.0 INCH WARD ND PUBLIC


&&

$$

AJ

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KBIS [152055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 152055
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
355 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0258 PM SNOW MINOT 48.23N 101.30W
03/15/2013 M3.3 INCH WARD ND BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

AJ

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KCYS [152042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 152042
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
242 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0136 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 SE ARLINGTON 41.50N 106.05W
03/15/2013 M59 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

THIS IS STROUSS HILL AT WY25. THE WIND GUST 59 ALSO AT
141 PM.

1155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW BUFORD 41.12N 105.34W
03/15/2013 M71 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

THIS IS BUFORD AT UP203. SUSTAINED WIND 59 MPH.

0115 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW BUFORD 41.12N 105.34W
03/15/2013 M61 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

THIS IS BUFORD AT UP203. SUSTAINED WIND 42 MPH.


&&

$$

DDEAL

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KTFX [152015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 152015
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1037 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 24 WSW CHOTEAU 47.68N 112.66W
03/15/2013 M64 MPH TETON MT MESONET

64 MPH WIND GUST.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KCYS [151941]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151941
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
141 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NE PUMPKIN VINE 41.08N 105.42W
03/15/2013 M53 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UR351

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151941]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151941
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
141 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1256 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE BUFORD 41.12N 105.28W
03/15/2013 M61 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION WY37

&&

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IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151941]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151941
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
141 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1256 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW CHEYENNE 41.16N 104.80W
03/15/2013 M51 MPH LARAMIE WY AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION FEW

&&

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IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151941]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151941
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
141 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1256 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW BUFORD 41.13N 105.34W
03/15/2013 M55 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION WY36

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151941]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151941
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
140 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W BUFORD 41.11N 105.34W
03/15/2013 M63 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UP203

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151941]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151941
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
140 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0110 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE ARLINGTON 41.55N 106.09W
03/15/2013 M50 MPH CARBON WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION WY24

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151931
SWODY1
SPC AC 151929

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON INITIATION OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 04Z ACROSS INDIANA THEN CONTINUING RAPIDLY
ESEWD INTO WV BY SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
MARGINAL...COOL PROFILES ALOFT COMBINED WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND FORCING MAY RESULT IN HAIL AROUND 1 INCH DIAMETER.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FROM FARTHER
W ACROSS MO AND IL...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKER WITH
LOWER HAIL POTENTIAL.

..JEWELL.. 03/15/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013/

...OH VALLEY...
UPPER RIDGE HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MT THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A WEAKLY
CYCLONIC WNWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA IS FORECAST TO MOVE/REDEVELOP
EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING CONTINUING EWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY TONIGHT.

THE NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT COUPLED WITH PREVIOUS COLD FRONTAL
INTRUSION DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL STRONGLY LIMIT THE
MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN NEWD INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW. 12Z RAOB AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE PW
GENERALLY AOB 0.75 INCH WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MID/UPPER 40S SURFACE DEW POINTS
CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS AR TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...A
PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD
TOWARD THE MID MS AND UPPER OH VALLEY WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 500-800 J PER KG/ ABOVE
850 MB TONIGHT. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING 09Z SREF WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW MEMBERS APPEAR TO BE OVERPREDICTING A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...AND THIS IN TURN MAY RESULT IN SOME MODEL FORECASTS
INDICATING EXCESSIVELY LARGE CAPE VALUES.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS AND SPC SSEO
DEVELOP ELEVATED STORMS BY THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL IL
WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD/ESEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP...WITH STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN 5% NOCTURNAL
HAIL PROBABILITY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT.

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KCYS [151912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151912
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
112 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1252 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SSW ALBANY 41.07N 106.15W
03/15/2013 M50 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT GOES STATION SAWW4

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151848
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1151 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW BUFORD 41.13N 105.34W
03/15/2013 M63 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION WY36

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151848
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NE PUMPKIN VINE 41.08N 105.42W
03/15/2013 M54 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UR351

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151848
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W BUFORD 41.11N 105.34W
03/15/2013 M71 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UP203

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151848
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1202 PM NON-TSTM WND GST VEDAUWOO 41.16N 105.40W
03/15/2013 M53 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION KVDW

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151848
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1151 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE BUFORD 41.12N 105.28W
03/15/2013 M61 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION WY37

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151847
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW WHITAKER 41.42N 104.87W
03/15/2013 M50 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION KWTR

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151847
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 N WHITAKER 41.65N 104.85W
03/15/2013 M51 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION WY40

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KARX [151834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 151834
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
134 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0129 PM SNOW NEILLSVILLE 44.56N 90.59W
03/15/2013 M2.0 INCH CLARK WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS

0134 PM SNOW LUBLIN 45.08N 90.72W
03/15/2013 M1.0 INCH TAYLOR WI PUBLIC

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS

0131 PM SNOW MERRILLAN 44.45N 90.84W
03/15/2013 M0.6 INCH JACKSON WI PUBLIC

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS

0129 PM SNOW 1 W BLACK RIVER FALLS 44.30N 90.86W
03/15/2013 M0.5 INCH JACKSON WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS

0132 PM SNOW MEDFORD 45.14N 90.35W
03/15/2013 M0.5 INCH TAYLOR WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS

0129 PM SNOW MAUSTON 43.80N 90.08W
03/15/2013 M0.4 INCH JUNEAU WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS


&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMPX [151823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 151823
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
123 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0122 PM SNOW NORTH ST PAUL 45.01N 93.00W
03/15/2013 M0.6 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

FREEZING RAIN CHANGED TO SNOW AT 810 AM.


&&

$$

JPC

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KCYS [151802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151802
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1201 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1136 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW BUFORD 41.13N 105.34W
03/15/2013 M64 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION WY36

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151802
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1201 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NE PUMPKIN VINE 41.08N 105.42W
03/15/2013 M58 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UR351

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151803]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151803
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1202 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1117 AM NON-TSTM WND GST VEDAUWOO 41.16N 105.40W
03/15/2013 M53 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION KVDW

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151803]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151803
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1202 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW WHITAKER 41.42N 104.87W
03/15/2013 M50 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION KWTR

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151803]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151803
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1202 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ROCK RIVER 41.73N 105.98W
03/15/2013 M53 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UR345

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151802
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1201 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 WSW WARREN AF BASE 41.08N 105.04W
03/15/2013 M54 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UP226

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151802
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1201 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1106 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE BUFORD 41.12N 105.28W
03/15/2013 M55 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION WY37

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151802
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1201 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W BUFORD 41.11N 105.34W
03/15/2013 M67 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UP203

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KBIS [151757]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 151757
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1256 PM SNOW HARVEY 47.77N 99.94W
03/15/2013 M2.5 INCH WELLS ND BROADCAST MEDIA

SNOWFALL AS OF 11AM CDT.


&&

$$

MMATHEWS

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KMPX [151757]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 151757
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1257 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM SNOW MENOMONIE 44.89N 91.91W
03/15/2013 M1.0 INCH DUNN WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

SPD

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KBIS [151756]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 151756
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM SNOW MINOT 48.23N 101.30W
03/15/2013 M2.5 INCH WARD ND BROADCAST MEDIA

SNOWFALL AS OF 11AM CDT.


&&

$$

MMATHEWS

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KCYS [151736]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151736
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1136 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1047 AM NON-TSTM WND GST VEDAUWOO 41.16N 105.40W
03/15/2013 M53 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION KVDW

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151736]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151736
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NE PUMPKIN VINE 41.08N 105.42W
03/15/2013 M57 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UR351

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151735
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W BUFORD 41.11N 105.34W
03/15/2013 M70 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UP203

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151735
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1041 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE BUFORD 41.12N 105.28W
03/15/2013 M60 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION WY37

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMPX [151735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 151735
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM SNOW NORTH ST PAUL 45.01N 93.00W
03/15/2013 M0.6 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JLT

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KMPX [151711]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 151711
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1211 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1206 PM SNOW RUSH CITY 45.68N 92.97W
03/15/2013 M2.3 INCH CHISAGO MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM THIS MORNING.


&&

$$

JPC

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151709
SWODY2
SPC AC 151707

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
WITH NWLY FLOW OVER THE W. A WEAK SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
OH EWD TO THE DELMARVA BY 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH A WLY SURGE OF THETA-E
JUST OFF THE SURFACE. HEATING AND STRONG FLOW ALOFT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM ERN KY/TN INTO VA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP INDUCE
WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NW TX
INTO NRN AR AT 06Z. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION WILL RESULT ACROSS NRN
OK.

...SRN VA...NRN NC...ERN KY AND TN...
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DELMARVA AND VA...PERHAPS INTO NERN NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN
BY WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS CNTRL VA. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY...HEATING WILL OCCUR AND WILL HELP TO CREATE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCAPE OF 300-500 J/KG...GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY 100 J/KG OR LESS. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS STORMS MAY BE TOO MARGINAL
AND ISOLATED FOR A SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER...40 KT FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE AND ANY MIXING FROM PRECIPITATION COULD RESULT IN STRONG
WIND GUSTS OVER A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA EVEN AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
CONVECTION.

..JEWELL.. 03/15/2013

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KCYS [151652]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151652
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1052 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1032 AM NON-TSTM WND GST VEDAUWOO 41.16N 105.40W
03/15/2013 M50 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION KVDW

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151653]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151653
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1052 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W BUFORD 41.11N 105.34W
03/15/2013 M62 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UP203

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151652]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151652
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1052 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NE PUMPKIN VINE 41.08N 105.42W
03/15/2013 M52 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UR351

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151628]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151628
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1027 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0931 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE BUFORD 41.12N 105.28W
03/15/2013 M53 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION WY37

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151628]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151628
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1027 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1001 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW BUFORD 41.13N 105.34W
03/15/2013 M51 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

REPORTED AT WYDOT STATION WY36

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCYS [151625]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151625
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1025 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1006 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW BUFORD 41.13N 105.34W
03/15/2013 M52 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS RANGE FROM LOWER 40 TO UPPER 30 MPH


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151622
SWODY1
SPC AC 151620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH VALLEY...
UPPER RIDGE HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MT THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A WEAKLY
CYCLONIC WNWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA IS FORECAST TO MOVE/REDEVELOP
EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING CONTINUING EWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY TONIGHT.

THE NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT COUPLED WITH PREVIOUS COLD FRONTAL
INTRUSION DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL STRONGLY LIMIT THE
MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN NEWD INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW. 12Z RAOB AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE PW
GENERALLY AOB 0.75 INCH WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MID/UPPER 40S SURFACE DEW POINTS
CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS AR TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...A
PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD
TOWARD THE MID MS AND UPPER OH VALLEY WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 500-800 J PER KG/ ABOVE
850 MB TONIGHT. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING 09Z SREF WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW MEMBERS APPEAR TO BE OVERPREDICTING A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...AND THIS IN TURN MAY RESULT IN SOME MODEL FORECASTS
INDICATING EXCESSIVELY LARGE CAPE VALUES.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS AND SPC SSEO
DEVELOP ELEVATED STORMS BY THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL IL
WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD/ESEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP...WITH STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN 5% NOCTURNAL
HAIL PROBABILITY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT.

..WEISS/GRAMS.. 03/15/2013

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KCYS [151616]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KCYS 151616
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1016 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0946 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BUFORD 41.11N 105.30W
03/15/2013 M50.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

41 MPH SUSTAINED


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [151605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151605
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1005 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0946 AM SNOW BUFORD 41.11N 105.30W
03/15/2013 M50.0 INCH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

41 MPH SUSTAINED


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KBIS [151542]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 151542
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1042 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 AM SNOW MINOT AIR FORCE BASE 48.42N 101.36W
03/15/2013 M1.5 INCH WARD ND OTHER FEDERAL

ONE INCH THROUGH 7 AM AND A HALF INCH SINCE. STILL
SNOWING


&&

$$

HAMILTON

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KMPX [151512]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 151512
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1012 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 AM SNOW BLAINE 45.17N 93.21W
03/15/2013 M1.0 INCH ANOKA MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JLT

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KTFX [151435]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 151435
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
834 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1207 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW EAST GLACIER PARK 48.43N 113.25W
03/14/2013 M69 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

SHEEPHERDERS HEAVEN

1157 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
03/14/2013 M58 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TWO MEDICINE DOT SITE

1240 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
03/15/2013 M73 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

73 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

1251 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW EAST GLACIER PARK 48.43N 113.25W
03/15/2013 M75 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

SHEEPHERDERS HEAVEN

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
03/15/2013 M61 MPH TETON MT MESONET

DELLWO MSCN SITE

0159 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 W PENDROY 48.06N 112.67W
03/15/2013 M68 MPH TETON MT MESONET

THEODORE ROOSEVELT RANCH

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
03/15/2013 M80 MPH TETON MT MESONET

DELLWO MCSCN SITE

0305 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
03/15/2013 M60 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

RAWS SITE

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW BROWNING 48.60N 113.11W
03/15/2013 M52 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

52 MPH WIND GUST AT THE BROWNING AIRSTRIP. TIME OF
EVENT IS ESTIMATED.

0630 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
03/15/2013 M66 MPH TETON MT MESONET

66 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DELLWO MCSCN SITE.

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
03/15/2013 M68 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

68 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

0729 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW WOLF CREEK 46.92N 112.19W
03/15/2013 M53 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR SIEBEN
FLATS...ON INTERSTATE 15.

0815 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E MARYSVILLE 46.73N 112.16W
03/15/2013 M52 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

52 MPH WIND GUST NEAR SILVER CITY.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [151432]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 151432
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
832 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW BROWNING 48.60N 113.11W
03/15/2013 M52 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

52 MPH WIND GUST AT THE BROWNING AIRSTRIP. TIME OF
EVENT IS ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [151431]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 151431
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
830 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1240 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
03/15/2013 M73 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

73 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [151429]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 151429
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
828 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
03/15/2013 M66 MPH TETON MT MESONET

66 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DELLWO MCSCN SITE.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [151428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 151428
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
827 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
03/15/2013 M68 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

68 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KDLH [151425]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 151425
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
925 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 AM SNOW 3 N BRAINERD 46.40N 94.19W
03/15/2013 M1.5 INCH CROW WING MN PUBLIC


&&

$$

DCANNON

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KTFX [151422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 151422
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
822 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E MARYSVILLE 46.73N 112.16W
03/15/2013 M52 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

52 MPH WIND GUST NEAR SILVER CITY.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [151419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 151419
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
819 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0729 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW WOLF CREEK 46.92N 112.19W
03/15/2013 M53 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR SIEBEN
FLATS...ON INTERSTATE 15.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KARX [151408]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 151408
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
908 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0904 AM FREEZING RAIN LAKE CITY 44.45N 92.28W
03/15/2013 U0.00 INCH WABASHA MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS CARS IN DITCHES BETWEEN LAKE CITY AND WABASHA
DUE TO LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE

0904 AM FREEZING RAIN WINONA 44.05N 91.66W
03/15/2013 U0.00 INCH WINONA MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORT OF HEAD-ON COLLOSION DUE TO ICE ON COUNTY ROAD 44
SOUTHWEST OF WINONA


&&

$$

ZT

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KMPX [151355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 151355
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
855 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM SNOW 7 S HILLMAN 45.91N 93.89W
03/15/2013 M1.9 INCH MORRISON MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JLT

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KFGF [151352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151352
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
852 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW WADENA 46.44N 95.13W
03/15/2013 M1.3 INCH WADENA MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL


&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KDLH [151318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 151318
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
818 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0818 AM SNOW 3 NE NISSWA 46.53N 94.25W
03/15/2013 M0.5 INCH CROW WING MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151241
SWODY1
SPC AC 151239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY QUASI-ZONAL AS A
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST AND A RIDGE DAMPENS
OVER THE WRN CONUS. A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
SAT MORNING. AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ENEWD
THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...OH VALLEY...
MODEST ADVECTION OF MOISTURE NEWD WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...AS THIS AREA IS DOWNSTREAM FROM A RESERVOIR OF MID-40S F
DEWPOINTS OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID-SOUTH. A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING THIS AFTERNOON /E.G. 06Z NAM/ DEPICTING WIDESPREAD
MID-50S DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
MUCAPE VALUES OF 200-600 J/KG WILL BECOME COMMON AFTER
16/01Z...SUPPORTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD
THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 03/15/2013

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KDLH [151153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 151153
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0653 AM SNOW ASKOV 46.19N 92.78W
03/15/2013 M0.3 INCH PINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BTENTING

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KCYS [151103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151103
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
503 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.17W
03/15/2013 M53 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KTFX [151019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 151019
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
419 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0159 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 W PENDROY 48.06N 112.67W
03/15/2013 M68 MPH TETON MT MESONET

THEODORE ROOSEVELT RANCH


&&

$$

EMANUEL

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KTFX [150936]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 150936
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
336 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
03/15/2013 M60 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

RAWS SITE


&&

$$

EMANUEL

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KTFX [150917]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 150917
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
317 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1251 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW EAST GLACIER PARK 48.43N 113.25W
03/15/2013 M75 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

SHEEPHERDERS HEAVEN


&&

$$

EMANUEL

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KTFX [150911]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 150911
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
310 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
03/15/2013 M80 MPH TETON MT MESONET

DELLWO MCSCN SITE


&&

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EMANUEL

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150859
SWOD48
SPC AC 150858

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY/DAY 4. THE MODELS SHOW A
CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO COUPLE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM KY INTO TN AND NRN AL WHERE
MODEL FORECASTS SHOW 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ON
TUESDAY/DAY 5...THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...THE MODELS DEVELOP ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS WITH THE MOIST SECTOR LOCATED FROM EAST TX EWD ACROSS LA.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM NE TX EWD INTO THE
CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. AT THIS POINT...ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE SCNTRL U.S. ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOW-AMPLITUDE. FOR
THIS REASON...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE SCENARIO WITH THE GFS SHOWING
A CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF.

CONCERNING THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL ADD A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SRN OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND LIFT WILL
SUPPORT AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 03/15/2013

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KTFX [150815]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 150815
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
03/15/2013 M61 MPH TETON MT MESONET

DELLWO MSCN SITE


&&

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EMANUEL

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150722
SWODY3
SPC AC 150720

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A LOW IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A WELL-DEFINED LEE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN WY...ERN CO INTO NE NM. SFC TEMPS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SE WY TO THE UPPER 60S IN SERN CO
ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
OF ERN CO. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SFC TROUGH WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY MOVING EWD INTO THE WRN
NEB...WRN KS AND INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO THE WEAK
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

FURTHER TO THE EAST FROM THE OZARKS NEWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ON THE
WRN EDGE OF A 40 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
THE MOIST SECTOR WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S
F. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED
TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 03/15/2013

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KTFX [150702]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 150702
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
102 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1157 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
03/14/2013 M58 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TWO MEDICINE DOT SITE


&&

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EMANUEL

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KTFX [150605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 150605
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1205 AM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1207 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW EAST GLACIER PARK 48.43N 113.25W
03/14/2013 M69 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

SHEEPHERDERS HEAVEN


&&

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EMANUEL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150557
SWODY2
SPC AC 150555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN VA AND NRN
NC...

...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS/NRN NC/SRN VA...
A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS ON SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. A
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS VA. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR A SFC LOW
MOVING EWD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MORNING
CONVECTION COULD HAVE A HAIL THREAT DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEFORE NOON SHOW A SFC INVERSION
SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED HELPING TO LIMIT THE WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC
HEATING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW A CLUSTER OF SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM ERN KY/ERN TN EWD ACROSS SRN VA AND
NRN NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z AT JACKSON KY AND RICHMOND VA SHOW
ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH 60 TO 65 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT. IF STORMS CAN EXHIBIT ROTATION...THEN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN
IS INSTABILITY. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE AROUND 50 F
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN SPITE OF THIS FACTOR...A STRONG WIND
FIELD WILL BE PRESENT AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL ADD A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS SRN VA AND NRN NC.

..BROYLES.. 03/15/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150436
SWODY1
SPC AC 150434

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO DEAMPLIFICATION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL WITH TIME. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW WILL TURN SEWD AFTER CRESTING
UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHILE A WARM FRONT SHIFTS EWD
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.

...OH VALLEY...

FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF HAS RETURNED TO SLY. AS THE LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF SHIFTS EWD...AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH
THE LOW-MID MS VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH THE OH VALLEY BY
FRIDAY NIGHT SUPPORTED BY A STRENGTHENING WSWLY LLJ. A PLUME OF
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT EWD ABOVE THE
AXIS OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER A PORTION OF THE MID MS THROUGH
OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UP TO 40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER MIGHT SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MODEST INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR.

..DIAL/MOSIER.. 03/15/2013

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