DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151709
SWODY2
SPC AC 151707

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
WITH NWLY FLOW OVER THE W. A WEAK SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
OH EWD TO THE DELMARVA BY 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH A WLY SURGE OF THETA-E
JUST OFF THE SURFACE. HEATING AND STRONG FLOW ALOFT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM ERN KY/TN INTO VA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP INDUCE
WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NW TX
INTO NRN AR AT 06Z. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION WILL RESULT ACROSS NRN
OK.

...SRN VA...NRN NC...ERN KY AND TN...
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DELMARVA AND VA...PERHAPS INTO NERN NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN
BY WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS CNTRL VA. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY...HEATING WILL OCCUR AND WILL HELP TO CREATE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCAPE OF 300-500 J/KG...GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY 100 J/KG OR LESS. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS STORMS MAY BE TOO MARGINAL
AND ISOLATED FOR A SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER...40 KT FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE AND ANY MIXING FROM PRECIPITATION COULD RESULT IN STRONG
WIND GUSTS OVER A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA EVEN AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
CONVECTION.

..JEWELL.. 03/15/2013

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