Friday, September 16, 2011

KJAX [170347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 170347
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1147 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1122 PM HEAVY RAIN FORT CAROLINE 30.39N 81.50W
09/16/2011 M1.62 INCH DUVAL FL ASOS

CRAIG FIELD MEASURED 1.62 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 30
MINUTES.


&&

$$

SHULER

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KDDC [170340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 170340
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1039 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1036 PM HAIL 19 WNW MEADE 37.39N 100.66W
09/16/2011 E1.00 INCH SEWARD KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

MB

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KDDC [170317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 170317
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1017 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 PM HAIL 5 W SUBLETTE 37.48N 100.94W
09/16/2011 E1.00 INCH HASKELL KS PUBLIC

HAIL REPORTED FROM PEA TO QUARTER SIZED.


&&

$$

MB

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KEPZ [170055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 170055
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
655 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 PM HAIL 2 N TULAROSA 33.10N 106.02W
09/16/2011 E1.00 INCH OTERO NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL TO SIZE OF QUARTERS OBSERVED ON HIGHWAY 54 JUST
NORTH OF TULAROSA


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100364

$$

TRIPOLI

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KEPZ [170051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 170051
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
651 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 PM HAIL 1 NW TULAROSA 33.09N 106.03W
09/16/2011 M0.88 INCH OTERO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100363

$$

TRIPOLI

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KSLC [170034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 170034
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
633 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0406 PM HAIL 3 N GOBLIN VALLEY 38.58N 110.70W
09/16/2011 E1.00 INCH EMERY UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

RELAYED BY HIKERS WHO WERE CAUGHT IN CRACK CANYON


&&

$$

RGRAHAM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170027
SWODY1
SPC AC 170026

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A
FOCUS FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO KS/NEB DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MULTIFACETED UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD BUT MID-HIGH LEVEL
FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
MODEST...H5 FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KT...ACROSS NM/WEST TX WHERE
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION. LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED-SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON WITHIN THE BROADER WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED SRN/CNTRL PLAINS BUT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS ACTUALLY QUITE LIMITED AND TRENDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE FOR WEAKER UPDRAFTS AS INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST ASCENT IS QUITE MEAGER.

..DARROW.. 09/17/2011

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KVEF [162341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 162341
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
441 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0441 PM HAIL PIOCHE 37.93N 114.45W
09/16/2011 E0.50 INCH LINCOLN NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE AMOUNT OF PEA TO AROUND PENNY SIZE HAIL FELL IN
PIOCHE FROM 420 TO 430.


&&

$$

JGG

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KDDC [162249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 162249
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
549 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0542 PM HAIL ROLLA 37.12N 101.63W
09/16/2011 E0.88 INCH MORTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

THE CALLER ALSO REPORTED 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20
MINUTES, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 45 MPH.
STREETS IN ROLLA WERE FLOODING AND A FEW BARRACADES HAD
BEEN PUT UP IN ROLLA.


&&

$$

BURKE

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KDDC [162249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 162249
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
549 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 PM HAIL 3 NNW ROLLA 37.16N 101.65W
09/16/2011 E0.75 INCH MORTON KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

JFINCH

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KSLC [162248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 162248
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
448 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N SPRINGDALE 37.21N 113.00W
09/16/2011 WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MULTIPLE DRAINAGES IN
ZION NP. PINE CREEK FLASHED TO 6-7 FT. SPRY CANYON
FLASHED IN ADDITION TO ROCKFALL ACROSS MANY ROADS...AND
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALL NORTHERN ASPECTS OF ZION NP.


&&

$$

BMCINERN

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KSLC [162246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 162246
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
446 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NW SPRINGDALE 37.20N 113.02W
09/16/2011 WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
ZION NATIONAL PARK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.60 INCHES FELL
IN A TWO HOUR PERIOD. FLOODING...ROCKFALL...AND LARGER
WASHES IN FLOOD.


&&

$$

BMCINERN

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KDDC [162244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 162244
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
544 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0501 PM HAIL 5 S RICHFIELD 37.19N 101.77W
09/16/2011 E0.88 INCH MORTON KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

JFINCH

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KLOX [162242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KLOX 162242
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
342 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM FLASH FLOOD 17 NNW OJAI 34.68N 119.36W
09/13/2011 VENTURA CA COUNTY OFFICIAL

COUNTY FIRE OFFICIAL REPORTED HIGHWAY 33 AND LOCKWOOD
VALLEY ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. IT WAS
ESTIMATED THAT WELL OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ABOUT
AN HOURS TIME.


&&

$$

DANIELSON

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KABQ [162242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 162242
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
441 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM HAIL 29 S YESO 34.02N 104.57W
09/16/2011 M0.88 INCH DE BACA NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1101231

$$

SHY

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KLOX [162232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 162232
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
332 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD 17 NNW OJAI 34.68N 119.36W
09/13/2011 VENTURA CA COUNTY OFFICIAL

COUNTY FIRE OFFICIAL REPORTED HIGHWAY 33 AND LOCKWOOD
VALLEY ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. IT WAS
ESTIMATED THAT WELL OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ABOUT
AN HOURS TIME.


&&

$$

DANIELSON

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KTWC [162142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 162142
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
242 PM MST FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 PM HAIL 2 ENE TUCSON INTERNATIO 32.13N 110.91W
09/15/2011 M1.50 INCH PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

DELAYED REPORT


&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1100123

$$

KD

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KVEF [162134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 162134
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0229 PM FLASH FLOOD BOULDER CITY 35.98N 114.83W
09/16/2011 CLARK NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

BOULDER CITY POLICE REPORTS NUMEROUS CITY STREETS WITH
MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS THEM. THE
WORST RUNOFF IS OCCURING AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY
93 AT THE BUCHANAN INTERSECTION.


&&

$$

JGG

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KVEF [162117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 162117
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
217 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0212 PM HEAVY RAIN BOULDER CITY 35.98N 114.83W
09/16/2011 E0.67 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

CCRFCD GAUGE REPORTS 0.67 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES
ENDING AT 205 PM AT VETERANS DETENTION BASIN. SPOTTER IN
BOULDER CITY REPORTS WATER PILING UP ON THE EDGE OF
HIGHWAY 93...WITH WATER PONDED UP TO THE CURBS. RIGHT
LANE IMPASSABLE.


&&

$$

JGG

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KVEF [162115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 162115
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0208 PM HAIL BOULDER CITY 35.98N 114.83W
09/16/2011 E0.75 INCH CLARK NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORT LARGE AMOUNT OF HAIL
FROM PEA TO AROUND DIME SIZE FALLING IN BOULDER CITY.


&&

$$

JGG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161952
SWODY1
SPC AC 161950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN AZ...NM THROUGH WRN TX...

DIABATIC HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM AZ THROUGH NM WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 25-35 KT DEEP SHEAR. THIS
PARAMETER SPACE WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT MULTICELL CONVECTION...BUT A
FEW STORMS MAY ATTAIN MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 09/16/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT...WITH A WEAK SPLIT IN
THE FLOW MOVING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/CNTRL
RCKYS...DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW/WRN CANADA.
SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM JET WILL
ENHANCE TSTM PROBABILITIES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/POSSIBLY
SVR ACTIVITY...OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI PLNS.

AT THE SFC...SHALLOW COOL DOME NOW IN PLACE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE SRN/CNTRL RCKYS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPR TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEAST...WILL BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE W AND S LATER TODAY AS THE
SRN STREAM IMPULSES CONTINUE E/ENEWD.

...SRN RCKYS/SRN HI PLNS...
LEAD SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER S CNTRL CO SHOULD FURTHER
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY ENEWD. DIMINISHING LOW/MID LVL WAA
RELATED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD MAINTAIN SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS OVER
PARTS OF SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX. UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS ALSO SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES E INTO SRN CO LATER
TODAY. TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE SRN RCKYS AND THE NM
MTNS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DAYTIME HEATING. OTHER
STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM OVER THE SRN HI PLNS IN RESPONSE TO SFC
HEATING AND SELY LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING SFC
RIDGE.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT COMBINATION
OF INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID
LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT WDLY SCTD STRONGER STORMS BY MID AFTN
OVER THE HI PLNS OF ERN NM/FAR W TX. WITH SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG
AND 30+ KT WSWLY MID LVL WINDS..SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW
MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD SPREAD E/NE INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
PERHAPS SW KS THIS EVE AS SHALLOW COOL/STABLE LAYER CONTINUES TO
ERODE NEWD...AND AS SLY LLJ DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONGER SRN
STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER CA/NV.

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KAKQ [161946]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 161946
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0534 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 E OCEAN VIEW 36.97N 76.11W
09/15/2011 M44 MPH ANZ634 VA BUOY

TRACTOR TRAILER BLOWN OVER ON SOUTHBOUND LANE OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL. AT THE SAME TIME...MEASURED
GUST TO 39 KT AT CBBV2.

0448 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 5 SW NEW POINT COMFORT 37.25N 76.33W
09/15/2011 E45 MPH ANZ632 VA C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

05

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2182

ACUS11 KWNS 161831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161830
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-161930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...WRN OK
PANHANDLE...NWRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161830Z - 161930Z

AN ISOLATED SVR STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
NERN NM...SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...THE WRN OK PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER SERN CO...AND IS JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW...SUBTLE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN
NM AND SRN CO...AND IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. AS ASCENT AND
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUE TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SERN CO AND NERN NM TOWARD 19-20Z...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 500 J/KG. OVER SWRN KS AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE
MORNING. FURTHER HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH A
SURFACE MOIST AXIS /DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPR 50S/ WILL
LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
1500 J PER KG BASED ON RUC OUTPUT/ THAT MAY AID IN MAINTENANCE OF
NM/CO ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM INTO KS/OK/TX BY MID-AFTERNOON. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK /AOB 20 KT/...S-SWLY WINDS IN THE 0-1
KM AGL LAYER VEER TO W-SWLY IN THE MIDLEVELS...RESULTING IN
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KT/ FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS WILL POSE
A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..GARNER.. 09/16/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 38180389 38470240 38090080 36470084 35290181 34960304
35170410 36980467 38180389

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KMHX [161748]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 161748
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
148 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 PM MARINE TSTM WIND HATTERAS 35.22N 75.69W
09/15/2011 M39 MPH DARE NC ASOS

CAPE HATTERAS ASOS KHSE REPORTED A 34 KNOT MARINE WIND
GUST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1100407

$$

DAG

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KMHX [161741]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KMHX 161741
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
141 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 N AVON 35.35N 75.50W
09/15/2011 M47 MPH DARE NC MESONET

WEATHERFLOW SITE ON AVON PIER REPORTED A 41 KNOT MARINE
WIND GUST.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER MHX1100405

$$

DAG

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KMHX [161740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 161740
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 NW FRISCO 35.25N 75.63W
09/15/2011 M45 MPH AMZ135 NC MESONET

WEATHERFLOW SITE AT FRISCO WOODS OBSERVED A 39 KNOT
MARINE WIND GUST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1100406

$$

DAG

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KMHX [161738]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 161738
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
138 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 N AVON 35.35N 75.50W
09/15/2011 M47 MPH DARE NC MESONET

WEATHERFLOW SITE ON AVON PIER REPORTED A 41 KNOT MARINE
WIND GUST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1100405

$$

DAG

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KMHX [161736]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 161736
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
136 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 NNE LITTLE KINNAKEET 35.46N 75.47W
09/15/2011 M43 MPH AMZ152 NC MESONET

WEATHERFLOW SITE REAL SLICK NEAR WAVES OBSERVED A 37
KNOT MARINE WIND GUST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1100404

$$

DAG

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161731
SWODY2
SPC AC 161730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN
U.S. WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXPANSIVE CP
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ERN U.S. WHILE A LEE
TROUGH BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE LEE TROUGH A WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH OK AND KS WITH A DRYLINE OR PACIFIC
FRONT BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/KS INTO
THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SHIFT NWD THROUGH OK
INTO SRN KS AS SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS AND THE LEE CYCLONE AND SLY
FLOW STRENGTHEN WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WLY FLOW
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.
NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH NWD EXPANDING WARM
SECTOR BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH DIABATIC
WARMING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE OR PACIFIC FRONT...POSSIBLY
AIDED BY VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH. FLOW
ALOFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH 20-30 KT AT 500
MB...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL UNDERGO A MODEST INCREASE AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES SUPPORTING 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH
AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. HODOGRAPHS WILL UNDERGO SOME ENHANCEMENT TOWARD EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHS...BUT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTING THE WINDOW FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
SHOULD REMAIN SMALL.

..DIAL.. 09/16/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161621
SWODY1
SPC AC 161619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT...WITH A WEAK SPLIT IN
THE FLOW MOVING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/CNTRL
RCKYS...DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW/WRN CANADA.
SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM JET WILL
ENHANCE TSTM PROBABILITIES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/POSSIBLY
SVR ACTIVITY...OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI PLNS.

AT THE SFC...SHALLOW COOL DOME NOW IN PLACE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE SRN/CNTRL RCKYS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPR TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEAST...WILL BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE W AND S LATER TODAY AS THE
SRN STREAM IMPULSES CONTINUE E/ENEWD.

...SRN RCKYS/SRN HI PLNS...
LEAD SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER S CNTRL CO SHOULD FURTHER
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY ENEWD. DIMINISHING LOW/MID LVL WAA
RELATED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD MAINTAIN SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS OVER
PARTS OF SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX. UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS ALSO SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES E INTO SRN CO LATER
TODAY. TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE SRN RCKYS AND THE NM
MTNS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DAYTIME HEATING. OTHER
STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM OVER THE SRN HI PLNS IN RESPONSE TO SFC
HEATING AND SELY LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING SFC
RIDGE.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT COMBINATION
OF INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID
LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT WDLY SCTD STRONGER STORMS BY MID AFTN
OVER THE HI PLNS OF ERN NM/FAR W TX. WITH SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG
AND 30+ KT WSWLY MID LVL WINDS..SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW
MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD SPREAD E/NE INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
PERHAPS SW KS THIS EVE AS SHALLOW COOL/STABLE LAYER CONTINUES TO
ERODE NEWD...AND AS SLY LLJ DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONGER SRN
STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER CA/NV.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 09/16/2011

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KMHX [161549]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 161549
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1149 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0906 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 E SANDY RIDGE 36.18N 75.74W
09/15/2011 M49 MPH AMZ150 NC OTHER FEDERAL

NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT DUCK OBSERVED A 43
KNOT MARINE WIND GUST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1100403

$$

DAG

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KMHX [161545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 161545
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1144 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0942 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 SE WANCHESE 35.78N 75.57W
09/15/2011 M40 MPH DARE NC OTHER FEDERAL

NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT OREGON INLET
OBSERVED A 35 KNOT MARINE WIND GUST.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1100402

$$

DAG

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KILM [161534]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 161534
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1134 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0202 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 ESE OAK ISLAND 33.91N 78.15W
09/16/2011 M46 MPH AMZ252 NC BUOY

A WIND GUST TO 40 KNOTS WAS MEASURED BY NDBC STATION
OCPN7 - OCEAN CREST PIER.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1100545

$$

RJD

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KTFX [161527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 161527
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
926 AM MDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
09/16/2011 M79 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

79 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT LOGAN PASS THIS MORNING.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KOKX [161457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 161457
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1057 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1208 AM TSTM WND DMG WARWICK 41.26N 74.36W
09/15/2011 ORANGE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE LIMB DOWN ON WIRES ON OAKLAND AVE


&&

$$

JM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161246
SWODY1
SPC AC 161244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED/CHAOTIC UPR FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST TDY. AS A STRONG UPR
TROUGH DEPARTS QC...AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL TRAVEL FROM THE CORN
BELT INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. TO THE W...A SUBTROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MINOR-OUT THIS AFTN WITH A STRONGER
NRN-STREAM SYSTEM ROTATING FROM NRN CA INTO THE GRT BASIN.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT TIED TO THE QC SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A SWD
TREK ACROSS CSTL SERN GA AND NRN/CNTRL FL. TAIL-END OF THE SAME
FRONT...TUCKED ALONG THE ROCKIES...WILL EDGE ENE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTN/EVE. FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS TDY AND
TONIGHT.

...SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW/MID-LVL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEAMPLIFYING SRN ROCKIES
DISTURBANCE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM W
TX NEWD INTO SRN OK/EXTREME WRN AR THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE SWLY LLJ WEAKENS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE W THIS AFTN/EVE ALONG THE SRN
ROCKIES/FOOTHILLS W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION.
BUT...INCREASINGLY MOIST ESELY UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW AMIDST H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES OF 6.5 TO 7 DEG C PER KM AND HIGH TERRAIN HEATING WILL LIKELY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR WDLY SCTD TSTMS BY MID-AFTN ACROSS ERN NM/FAR W
TX. COOL BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER E WILL LIKELY ERODE ACROSS PARTS OF
SW KS...OK-TX PNHDLS AND THE PLAINS OF W TX TO SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF STORMS INTO THE EVE HOURS AS THE SLY LLJ
INTENSIFIES.

SBCAPES ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WLY H5 FLOW OF 30-35 KTS ATOP WEAK SELY SFC
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS AND BRIEF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS. COVERAGE OF STORMS
IS LIKELY TO BE SPARSE DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN SVR PROBABILITIES
WILL BE HIGHEST. THUS...THE SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
BELOW CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK.

..RACY/COHEN.. 09/16/2011

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160859
SWOD48
SPC AC 160859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE REMAIN IN AMPLE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PROGRESSIVE WESTERLIES EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS/CANADA PRIOR
TO THE PATTERN POTENTIALLY AMPLIFYING AROUND MID-WEEK. WHILE SEVERE
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD...NO 30 PERCENT
EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED.

FOR DAYS 4-5 MONDAY/TUESDAY...A SECONDARY/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SEEMS LIKELY TO AT LEAST GRAZE A GRADUAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ACCORDINGLY...ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE DAY 4/MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY DAY 5/TUESDAY IN AREAS
SUCH AS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST.

INTO DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS /SUCH AS THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK IS NOT EXPECTED AND SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY
IS LIMITED AT THIS JUNCTURE.

..GUYER.. 09/16/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160728
SWODY3
SPC AC 160727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CONTINUANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE/RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW
REGIME CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL
BE RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO VICINITIES.

...MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE...WHILE
MOISTURE OTHERWISE SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT. GIVEN
AMPLE HEATING...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON AMID
60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX INTO
SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS...WHILE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION IS MORE
UNCERTAIN /BUT LIKELY MUCH WEAKER/ ACROSS THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AS CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION MAY BE PERSISTENT.

WHILE AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/ADVANCING FRONT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND/OR WIND...A
PARTICULARLY FOCUSED/ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THAT THE PRIMARY WESTERLIES/PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION WILL BE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS...FACTORS SUCH AS
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE/WEAKENING NATURE OF THE COLD
FRONT...AS WELL AS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /30 KT OR LESS/...IMPLY
NOTHING MORE THAN A SPORADIC HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS A BROAD PART
OF THE REGION.

..GUYER.. 09/16/2011

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KPUB [160611]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 160611
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1211 AM MDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE SECURITY 38.78N 104.73W
09/15/2011 M0.59 INCH EL PASO CO NWS EMPLOYEE

SINCE 630 AM


&&

$$

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160601
SWODY2
SPC AC 160600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/LOW-AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CONUS ON SATURDAY...WITH THE RELATIVELY STRONGEST WESTERLIES
CONFINED TO THE CONUS NORTHERN TIER. HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THIS
REGIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE CONUS NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTWARD-ADVANCING
NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TROUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH A GRADUAL
NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN AND INCREASINGLY PREVALENT SURFACE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...WARM ADVECTION-DRIVEN EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO
VALLEY/OZARKS...BUT LITTLE OR NO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION...A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR
OF WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED NEAR/EAST OF THE
SHARPENING HIGH PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
TX/WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS FOR AS
MUCH AS 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE IN THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON AMID
LOWER/PERHAPS MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. STRONGER HEATING
NEAR/WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE AND THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER
FLOW...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST /30-35 KT/...THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF
BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SUSTAINED/SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS POTENTIALLY INCLUDING SOME
SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK/SOUTHERN KS. SEVERE
HAIL/WIND WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...OTHER MORE MARGINAL AND/OR
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN AREAS SUCH AS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...AS WELL AS WEST/SOUTHWEST TX. SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...BUT MAINLY ON A LOCALIZED BASIS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE/SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY VICINITY AMID A STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE BY LATE EVENING...SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAIL.

..GUYER.. 09/16/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160515
SWODY1
SPC AC 160513

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP SLOWLY RETREATING SFC
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS WELL ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE ROCKIES. AS LLJ
INCREASES ACROSS NERN MEXICO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE IT WOULD SEEM
PLAUSIBLE THAT AN EROSION OF THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE NM/TX
BORDER WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR
SFC-BASED PARCELS TO BECOME BUOYANT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WRN
EDGE OF RETREATING HIGH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-35KT BY PEAK HEATING. ULTIMATELY
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE AIRMASS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN AZ/SRN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE
OPTED TO MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITIES FOR WIND/HAIL WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH MAY EXHIBIT WEAK ROTATION OR PSEUDO
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT SIGNIFICANT.

..DARROW/ROGERS.. 09/16/2011

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KABR [160428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KABR 160428
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1128 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 AM FREEZE MCINTOSH 45.92N 101.35W
09/15/2011 M29.00 F CORSON SD MESONET

DROPPED TO 31 DEGREES AT 230 AM CDT

0315 AM FREEZE OACOMA 43.80N 99.38W
09/15/2011 M32.00 F LYMAN SD MESONET

0345 AM FREEZE PIERRE 44.37N 100.32W
09/15/2011 M32.00 F HUGHES SD ASOS

0355 AM FREEZE MILLER 44.52N 98.99W
09/15/2011 M31.00 F HAND SD AWOS

0515 AM FREEZE WHEATON 45.81N 96.50W
09/15/2011 M28.00 F TRAVERSE MN AWOS

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 32 DEGREES AT 135 AM CDT

0520 AM FREEZE FAULKTON 45.03N 99.13W
09/15/2011 M30.00 F FAULK SD MESONET

DOWN TO 31 DEGREES AT 505 AM CDT

0520 AM FREEZE FREDERICK 45.83N 98.51W
09/15/2011 M26.00 F BROWN SD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0530 AM FREEZE GETTYSBURG 45.01N 99.95W
09/15/2011 M32.00 F POTTER SD MESONET

GETTYSBURG SDSU SITE.

0551 AM FREEZE 6 ESE ORTONVILLE 45.26N 96.34W
09/15/2011 M29.00 F BIG STONE MN MESONET

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 30 DEGREES AT 251 AM CDT

0555 AM FREEZE MILBANK 45.22N 96.63W
09/15/2011 M29.00 F GRANT SD AWOS

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 31 DEGREES AT 335 AM CDT

0600 AM FREEZE HERREID 45.84N 100.07W
09/15/2011 M25.00 F CAMPBELL SD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0600 AM FREEZE BOWDLE 45.45N 99.66W
09/15/2011 M29.00 F EDMUNDS SD MESONET

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 32 AT 110 AM CDT

0619 AM FREEZE SISSETON 45.66N 97.05W
09/15/2011 M30.00 F ROBERTS SD ASOS

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 31 DEGREES AT 356 AM CDT

0625 AM FREEZE ABERDEEN 45.47N 98.48W
09/15/2011 M30.00 F BROWN SD ASOS

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 32 AT 253 AM CDT

0650 AM FREEZE ANDOVER 45.41N 97.90W
09/15/2011 M31.00 F DAY SD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 32 DEGREES AT 1110 PM CDT 9/14/11

0715 AM FREEZE 10 W LONG LAKE 45.86N 99.41W
09/15/2011 M31.00 F MCPHERSON SD MESONET

MEASURED AT THE SAND LAKE RAWS.

0715 AM FREEZE WATERTOWN 44.91N 97.17W
09/15/2011 M31.00 F CODINGTON SD ASOS

0718 AM FREEZE TURTON 45.05N 98.10W
09/15/2011 M31.00 F SPINK SD CO-OP OBSERVER

0718 AM FREEZE CLEAR LAKE 44.77N 96.68W
09/15/2011 M30.00 F DEUEL SD CO-OP OBSERVER

0718 AM FREEZE BROWNS VALLEY 45.59N 96.83W
09/15/2011 M28.00 F TRAVERSE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0745 AM FREEZE WILMOT 45.41N 96.86W
09/15/2011 M30.00 F ROBERTS SD CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

TEAM ABR

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KABR [160427]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 160427
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1127 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 AM FREEZE OACOMA 43.80N 99.38W
09/15/2011 M32.00 F LYMAN SD MESONET

0600 AM FREEZE HERREID 45.84N 100.07W
09/15/2011 M25.00 F CAMPBELL SD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0600 AM FREEZE BOWDLE 45.45N 99.66W
09/15/2011 M29.00 F EDMUNDS SD MESONET

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 32 AT 110 AM CDT

0650 AM FREEZE ANDOVER 45.41N 97.90W
09/15/2011 M31.00 F DAY SD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 32 DEGREES AT 1110 PM CDT 9/14/11


&&

$$

TEAM ABR

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KABR [160426]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KABR 160426
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1126 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0551 AM FREEZE 6 ESE ORTONVILLE 45.26N 96.34W
09/15/2011 M29.00 F BIG STONE MN MESONET

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 30 DEGREES AT 251 AM CDT


&&

$$

TEAM ABR

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KABR [160423]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KABR 160423
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1123 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 AM FREEZE WHEATON 45.81N 96.50W
09/15/2011 M28.00 F TRAVERSE MN AWOS

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 32 DEGREES AT 135 AM CDT


&&

$$

TEAM ABR

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KABR [160419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KABR 160419
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1118 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0619 AM FREEZE SISSETON 45.66N 97.05W
09/15/2011 M30.00 F ROBERTS SD ASOS

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 31 DEGREES AT 356 AM CDT


&&

$$

TEAM ABR

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KABR [160415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KABR 160415
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1115 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 AM FREEZE MILBANK 45.22N 96.63W
09/15/2011 M29.00 F GRANT SD AWOS

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 31 DEGREES AT 335 AM CDT


&&

$$

TEAM ABR

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