SWOD48
SPC AC 160859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE REMAIN IN AMPLE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PROGRESSIVE WESTERLIES EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS/CANADA PRIOR
TO THE PATTERN POTENTIALLY AMPLIFYING AROUND MID-WEEK. WHILE SEVERE
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD...NO 30 PERCENT
EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED.
FOR DAYS 4-5 MONDAY/TUESDAY...A SECONDARY/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SEEMS LIKELY TO AT LEAST GRAZE A GRADUAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ACCORDINGLY...ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE DAY 4/MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY DAY 5/TUESDAY IN AREAS
SUCH AS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST.
INTO DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS /SUCH AS THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK IS NOT EXPECTED AND SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY
IS LIMITED AT THIS JUNCTURE.
..GUYER.. 09/16/2011
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