SWODY1
SPC AC 161244
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED/CHAOTIC UPR FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST TDY. AS A STRONG UPR
TROUGH DEPARTS QC...AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL TRAVEL FROM THE CORN
BELT INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. TO THE W...A SUBTROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MINOR-OUT THIS AFTN WITH A STRONGER
NRN-STREAM SYSTEM ROTATING FROM NRN CA INTO THE GRT BASIN.
AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT TIED TO THE QC SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A SWD
TREK ACROSS CSTL SERN GA AND NRN/CNTRL FL. TAIL-END OF THE SAME
FRONT...TUCKED ALONG THE ROCKIES...WILL EDGE ENE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTN/EVE. FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS TDY AND
TONIGHT.
...SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW/MID-LVL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEAMPLIFYING SRN ROCKIES
DISTURBANCE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM W
TX NEWD INTO SRN OK/EXTREME WRN AR THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE SWLY LLJ WEAKENS.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE W THIS AFTN/EVE ALONG THE SRN
ROCKIES/FOOTHILLS W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION.
BUT...INCREASINGLY MOIST ESELY UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW AMIDST H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES OF 6.5 TO 7 DEG C PER KM AND HIGH TERRAIN HEATING WILL LIKELY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR WDLY SCTD TSTMS BY MID-AFTN ACROSS ERN NM/FAR W
TX. COOL BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER E WILL LIKELY ERODE ACROSS PARTS OF
SW KS...OK-TX PNHDLS AND THE PLAINS OF W TX TO SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF STORMS INTO THE EVE HOURS AS THE SLY LLJ
INTENSIFIES.
SBCAPES ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WLY H5 FLOW OF 30-35 KTS ATOP WEAK SELY SFC
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS AND BRIEF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS. COVERAGE OF STORMS
IS LIKELY TO BE SPARSE DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN SVR PROBABILITIES
WILL BE HIGHEST. THUS...THE SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
BELOW CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK.
..RACY/COHEN.. 09/16/2011
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