KBIS [070331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 070331
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1031 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1023 PM HAIL LINTON 46.27N 100.23W
10/06/2007 E1.00 INCH EMMONS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL LASTING FOR 5 MINUTES.

&&

$$

PAYD

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KABR [070230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 070230
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
929 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 PM HAIL MOUND CITY 45.73N 100.07W
10/06/2007 E0.88 INCH CAMPBELL SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

ATG

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KBIS [070244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 070244
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
944 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0933 PM HAIL ASHLEY 46.03N 99.37W
10/06/2007 E0.50 INCH MCINTOSH ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED. FALLING FOR 10 MINUTES PRIOR.

&&

$$

PAYD

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KABR [070219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 070219
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
919 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM HAIL SELBY 45.50N 100.03W
10/06/2007 E1.75 INCH WALWORTH SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

ATG

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KABR [070216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 070216
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
916 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM HAIL 21 N GETTYSBURG 45.31N 99.95W
10/06/2007 E1.00 INCH WALWORTH SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

ATG

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGLD [062300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 062300
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 PM MDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0431 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S BURLINGTON 39.26N 102.27W
10/06/2007 M58 MPH KIT CARSON CO ASOS

&&

$$

BLM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGLD [062206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 062206
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
405 PM MDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0254 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S BURLINGTON 39.26N 102.27W
10/06/2007 M60 MPH KIT CARSON CO ASOS

&&

$$

BLM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2062

ACUS11 KWNS 062203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062202
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-062330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN ND...W-CENTRAL/NWRN MN...NERN THROUGH
S-CENTRAL SD...N-CENTRAL THROUGH SWRN NEB.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 062202Z - 062330Z

TSTMS MAY FORM IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS INVOF FRONTAL ZONE AND DRYLINE
BETWEEN SERN ND AND SWRN NEB...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS.

2130Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SERN ND INVOF JMS...COLD FRONT
SWWD ALONG LINE ABR...VTN...25 N SNY...INTO ANOTHER LOW JUST S CYS.
COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD 20-25 KT ACROSS NEB AND EWD
15-20 KT OVER DAKOTAS. DRYLINE INTERSECTS FRONT OVER CHERRY COUNTY
NEB AND EXTENDS SSWWD THROUGH IML...WITH SLGT NWWD RETREAT POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT IS OVERTAKEN BY FRONT. COLD FRONTAL ZONE JUST NE OF ND
LOW ALSO IS MOVING SEWD 10-15 KT UNTIL PASSING THROUGH INFLECTION
POINT NEAR CKN...WITH WARM FRONT SEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL MN. ALTHOUGH
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 50-75 J/KG SBCINH ALONG MUCH OF FRONTAL
ZONE...VIS IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING CU/TCU...ESPECIALLY OVER NEB
WHERE STRONGER HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING HAS TAKEN PACE ON
RELATIVELY HIGH TERRAIN. LARGEST MLCAPES THROUGH 00Z SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG OVER ERN DAKOTAS AMIDST MID 60S F SFC DEW
POINTS...THEN DECREASE WITH SFC COOLING. 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONVECTION FORMING INVOF
FRONT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WHERE CONVECTION CAN REMAIN DISCRETE.
TSTMS FARTHER N MAY HAVE BEST POTENTIAL TO REMAIN SFC-BASED AND
DISCRETE FOR LONGER DURATION...WITH MEAN WIND AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS ALIGNED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FRONT. FARTHER S...FLOW ALOFT IS
PARALLEL TO FRONT...WHICH MAY UNDERCUT CONVECTION QUICKLY.

.EDWARDS.. 10/06/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD...

40580179 41460122 42500091 43219970 44439851 46709826
47319715 47229618 46459573 45019638 43399734 41869852
40140081

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPIH [062144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KPIH 062144
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
344 PM MDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW THORNTON 43.75N 111.85W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. STILL SNOWING.

1000 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING.

1020 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES AND
POWERLINES DOWN.

1040 AM SNOW 2 E POCATELLO 42.88N 112.43W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

5 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON EAST BENCH OF
POCATELLO...STILL SNOWING.

1040 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES
BROKEN AND FALLING.

1055 AM SNOW 2 NE POCATELLO 42.90N 112.44W
10/06/2007 M5.5 INCH BANNOCK ID CO-OP OBSERVER

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. ELEVATION 4800
FEET.

1117 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOWING LIGHTLY.

1125 AM SNOW CHUBBUCK 42.92N 112.46W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOW FALLING CURRENTLY.

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E6.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE IDAHO FALLS AREA.

1200 PM SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E4.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL.

1200 PM SNOW REXBURG 43.83N 111.79W
10/06/2007 E3.5 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

1200 PM SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

1225 PM SNOW 1 N UCON 43.59N 111.96W
10/06/2007 M5.5 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. SNOWFALL RATE PEAKED AT 1.5
INCHES PER HOUR.

0100 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 E POCATELLO 42.88N 112.27W
10/06/2007 M10.0 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

10 INCHES OF SNOW AND 1.11 INCHES OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AND TODAY. BROKEN TREE BRANCHES.

0107 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 NE POCATELLO 42.91N 112.42W
10/06/2007 M6.0 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

JUST UNDER 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

0120 PM HEAVY SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 M5.8 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5.75 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...LIGHT RAIN FALLING.

&&

$$

MCANTI

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KBGM [062112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 062112
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
512 PM EDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM TSTM WND DMG MARATHON 42.44N 76.04W
10/06/2007 CORTLAND NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWERLINES BLOWN DOWN IN TOWN

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG WILLET 42.47N 75.90W
10/06/2007 CORTLAND NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES BLOWN DOWN IN TOWN

&&

$$

PB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGLD [062111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 062111
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
311 PM MDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S BURLINGTON 39.26N 102.27W
10/06/2007 M58 MPH KIT CARSON CO ASOS

&&

$$

BLM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2061

ACUS11 KWNS 062036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062035
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-062300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 062035Z - 062300Z

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES WITH SOME MINOR COOLING ALOFT/HEIGHT FALLS INDICATED
FARTHER E OVER THE MD AREA. MEANWHILE...CU IS INCREASING WITHIN
SURFACE TROUGH FROM SERN CO INTO NERN NM. TCU PROFILER SHOWS
MODERATE WIND FIELDS IN PLACE WHICH ARE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION...YET ALSO NOT TOO STRONG GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THUS...WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. BACKING SURFACE WINDS E OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINTAIN CAPPING AND THUS KEEP THE THREAT
AREA IN A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE.

.JEWELL.. 10/06/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

38430227 35910257 34620266 33740300 33560353 33500418
33760459 34200484 34970454 36420410 37000393 38410319
38610270

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLBF [062005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 062005
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
305 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM HAIL 1 SE LYNCH 42.82N 98.45W
10/05/2007 E0.88 INCH BOYD NE PUBLIC

HAIL FROM 1000 TO 1030 PM CDT WITH SHEETS OF RAIN.

&&

$$

HENDERSON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 062000
SWODY1
SPC AC 061958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

..UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW NEAR HON ALONG COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM CNTRL ND SWWD INTO THE NEB PNHDL. A WARM
FRONT OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM
INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT OVER NERN SD ENEWD INTO NRN PARTS OF
MN/WI. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SAMPLED A RELATIVELY STRONG CAP OVER
THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SURFACE-BASED
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SW...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S OVER WRN NEB INTO S-CNTRL SD WHERE RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GROWING CUMULUS CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT
FROM AIA TO VTN TO 9V9. AMBIENT BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER THAN POINTS TO THE NE WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE 50S.
HOWEVER...THIS STRONG HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG. 40-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG OR PERHAPS IN
IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM CNTRL/NERN SD INTO ERN ND AND
WRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT
WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J PER KG/ AND
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO LINEAR STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THE
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE STORMS DEVELOPING IN ANAFRONTAL
FLOW REGIME W OF SURFACE FRONT WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARD.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING TODAY IN ADVANCE OF LEE
TROUGH/PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM ERN NM INTO WRN TX WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 80S TO AROUND 90 F AS OF 19Z...CONTRIBUTING
TO SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENT TUCUMCARI NM PROFILER IS
OBSERVING DEEP SWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..UPSTATE NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE S
OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. WHILE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 25-30 KT/...LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY/NWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY PROMOTE DOWNSHEAR COLD
POOL ORGANIZATION/ELONGATION WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THIS
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY/MID
EVENING...PRIOR TO COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2060.

.MEAD.. 10/06/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPIH [061928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KPIH 061928
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
127 PM MDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW THORNTON 43.75N 111.85W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. STILL SNOWING.

1000 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING.

1020 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES AND
POWERLINES DOWN.

1040 AM SNOW 2 E POCATELLO 42.88N 112.43W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

5 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON EAST BENCH OF
POCATELLO...STILL SNOWING.

1040 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES
BROKEN AND FALLING.

1055 AM SNOW 2 NE POCATELLO 42.90N 112.44W
10/06/2007 M5.5 INCH BANNOCK ID CO-OP OBSERVER

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. ELEVATION 4800
FEET.

1117 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOWING LIGHTLY.

1125 AM SNOW CHUBBUCK 42.92N 112.46W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOW FALLING CURRENTLY.

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E6.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE IDAHO FALLS AREA.

1200 PM SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E4.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL.

1200 PM SNOW REXBURG 43.83N 111.79W
10/06/2007 E3.5 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

1200 PM SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

1225 PM SNOW 1 N UCON 43.59N 111.96W
10/06/2007 M5.5 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. SNOWFALL RATE PEAKED AT 1.5
INCHES PER HOUR.

0107 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 NE POCATELLO 42.91N 112.42W
10/06/2007 M6.0 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

JUST UNDER 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

0120 PM HEAVY SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 M5.8 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5.75 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...LIGHT RAIN FALLING.

&&

$$

MCANTIN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPIH [061910]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KPIH 061910
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
110 PM MDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW THORNTON 43.75N 111.85W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. STILL SNOWING.

1000 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING.

1020 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES AND
POWERLINES DOWN.

1040 AM SNOW 2 E POCATELLO 42.88N 112.43W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

5 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON EAST BENCH OF
POCATELLO...STILL SNOWING.

1040 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES
BROKEN AND FALLING.

1055 AM SNOW 2 NE POCATELLO 42.90N 112.44W
10/06/2007 M5.5 INCH BANNOCK ID CO-OP OBSERVER

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. ELEVATION 4800
FEET.

1117 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOWING LIGHTLY.

1125 AM SNOW CHUBBUCK 42.92N 112.46W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOW FALLING CURRENTLY.

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E6.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE IDAHO FALLS AREA.

1200 PM SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E4.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL.

1200 PM SNOW REXBURG 43.83N 111.79W
10/06/2007 E3.5 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

1200 PM SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

1225 PM SNOW 1 N UCON 43.59N 111.96W
10/06/2007 M5.5 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. SNOWFALL RATE PEAKED AT 1.5
INCHES PER HOUR.

0107 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 NE POCATELLO 42.91N 112.42W
10/06/2007 M6.0 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

JUST UNDER 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

MCANTIN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2060

ACUS11 KWNS 061905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061905
MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-062100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NY...VT...MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061905Z - 062100Z

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND ADIRONDACK REGIONS OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY ACHIEVE SEVERE LEVELS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE...OVERALL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A WATCH
OR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING EAST WITHIN BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST APPEAR TO BE ENHANCING WARM SECTOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FROM SRN ONTARIO
ACROSS WRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING OF SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
AIR MASS WAS SUPPORTING MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION WILL LIKELY LIMIT MORE ROBUST STORM UPDRAFTS. NONETHELESS...
MODEST MEAN-LAYER WLY FLOW OF ABOUT 25-30KT AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF STORMS COULD
ENHANCE STORM DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
LOCALLY FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS AS THESE STORMS TRANSLATE EAST
ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF VT/WRN MA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

.CARBIN.. 10/06/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

43247648 44097409 43717282 42577301 42057380 41907462
42397668

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPIH [061830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KPIH 061830
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1230 PM MDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW THORNTON 43.75N 111.85W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. STILL SNOWING.

1000 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING.

1020 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES AND
POWERLINES DOWN.

1040 AM SNOW 2 E POCATELLO 42.88N 112.43W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

5 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON EAST BENCH OF
POCATELLO...STILL SNOWING.

1040 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES
BROKEN AND FALLING.

1055 AM SNOW 2 NE POCATELLO 42.90N 112.44W
10/06/2007 M5.5 INCH BANNOCK ID CO-OP OBSERVER

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. ELEVATION 4800
FEET.

1117 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOWING LIGHTLY.

1125 AM SNOW CHUBBUCK 42.92N 112.46W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOW FALLING CURRENTLY.

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E6.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE IDAHO FALLS AREA.

1200 PM SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E4.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL.

1200 PM SNOW REXBURG 43.83N 111.79W
10/06/2007 E3.5 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

1200 PM SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

1225 PM SNOW 1 N UCON 43.59N 111.96W
10/06/2007 M5.5 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. SNOWFALL RATE PEAKED AT 1.5
INCHES PER HOUR.

&&

$$

MCANTIN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPIH [061809]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KPIH 061809
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1209 PM MDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW THORNTON 43.75N 111.85W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. STILL SNOWING.

1000 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING.

1020 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES AND
POWERLINES DOWN.

1040 AM SNOW 2 E POCATELLO 42.88N 112.43W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

5 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON EAST BENCH OF
POCATELLO...STILL SNOWING.

1040 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES
BROKEN AND FALLING.

1055 AM SNOW 2 NE POCATELLO 42.90N 112.44W
10/06/2007 M5.5 INCH BANNOCK ID CO-OP OBSERVER

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. ELEVATION 4800
FEET.

1111 AM SNOW UCON 43.59N 111.96W
10/06/2007 E4.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...HEAVY SNOW FALLING CURRENTLY. 34
DEGREES.

1117 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOWING LIGHTLY.

1125 AM SNOW CHUBBUCK 42.92N 112.46W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOW FALLING CURRENTLY.

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E6.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE IDAHO FALLS AREA.

1200 PM SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E4.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL.

1200 PM SNOW REXBURG 43.83N 111.79W
10/06/2007 E3.5 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

1200 PM SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

&&

$$

MCANTIN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPIH [061727]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KPIH 061727
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1126 AM MDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW THORNTON 43.75N 111.85W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. STILL SNOWING.

1000 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING.

1020 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES AND
POWERLINES DOWN.

1040 AM SNOW 2 E POCATELLO 42.88N 112.43W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

5 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON EAST BENCH OF
POCATELLO...STILL SNOWING.

1040 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES
BROKEN AND FALLING.

1055 AM SNOW 2 NE POCATELLO 42.90N 112.44W
10/06/2007 M5.5 INCH BANNOCK ID CO-OP OBSERVER

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. ELEVATION 4800
FEET.

1111 AM SNOW UCON 43.59N 111.96W
10/06/2007 E4.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...HEAVY SNOW FALLING CURRENTLY. 34
DEGREES.

1117 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOWING LIGHTLY.

1125 AM SNOW CHUBBUCK 42.92N 112.46W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOW FALLING CURRENTLY.

&&

$$

MCANTIN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPIH [061719]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KPIH 061719
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1119 AM MDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW THORNTON 43.75N 111.85W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. STILL SNOWING.

1000 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING.

1020 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES AND
POWERLINES DOWN.

1040 AM SNOW 2 E POCATELLO 42.88N 112.43W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

5 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON EAST BENCH OF
POCATELLO...STILL SNOWING.

1040 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES
BROKEN AND FALLING.

1055 AM SNOW 2 NE POCATELLO 42.90N 112.44W
10/06/2007 M5.5 INCH BANNOCK ID CO-OP OBSERVER

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. ELEVATION 4800
FEET.

1111 AM SNOW UCON 43.59N 111.96W
10/06/2007 E4.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...HEAVY SNOW FALLING CURRENTLY. 34
DEGREES.

1117 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOWING LIGHTLY.

&&

$$

MCANTIN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPIH [061714]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KPIH 061714
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1113 AM MDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW THORNTON 43.75N 111.85W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. STILL SNOWING.

1000 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING.

1020 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES AND
POWERLINES DOWN.

1040 AM SNOW 2 E POCATELLO 42.88N 112.43W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

5 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON EAST BENCH OF
POCATELLO...STILL SNOWING.

1040 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES
BROKEN AND FALLING.

1055 AM SNOW 2 NE POCATELLO 42.90N 112.44W
10/06/2007 M5.5 INCH BANNOCK ID CO-OP OBSERVER

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. ELEVATION 4800
FEET.

1111 AM SNOW UCON 43.59N 111.96W
10/06/2007 E4.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...HEAVY SNOW FALLING CURRENTLY. 34
DEGREES.

&&

$$

MCANTIN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPIH [061700]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 061700
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1100 AM MDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW THORNTON 43.75N 111.85W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. STILL SNOWING.

1000 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING.

1020 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES AND
POWERLINES DOWN.

1040 AM SNOW 2 E POCATELLO 42.88N 112.43W
10/06/2007 E5.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

5 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON EAST BENCH OF
POCATELLO...STILL SNOWING.

1040 AM SNOW BLACKFOOT 43.19N 112.35W
10/06/2007 E3.0 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. TREE BRANCHES
BROKEN AND FALLING.

1055 AM SNOW 2 NE POCATELLO 42.90N 112.44W
10/06/2007 M5.5 INCH BANNOCK ID CO-OP OBSERVER

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...STILL SNOWING. ELEVATION 4800
FEET.

&&

$$

MCANTI

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061644
SWODY2
SPC AC 061643

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DIFFERENCES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. THE NAM/WRF MAINTAINS A POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL TILT TO THIS
SYSTEM WITH PRIMARY FEATURE BEING DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER ND/SRN
MANITOBA. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS SUGGESTS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED...ALSO SHOWING UPPER LOW OVER
ND...BUT ALSO INDICATING THAT A STRONGER VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY...MID
MO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.

..UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC IN THE MID-LEVELS/
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED IN WARM SECTOR. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY LIMIT MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG.

TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ALONG PORTIONS OF COLD FRONT
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. DESPITE THE MODEL VARIANCE
DISCUSSED IN SYNOPSIS...ALL DATA SETS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LAG SYSTEM WARM SECTOR TO THE W...WITH
MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODES.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED...SEVERE HAIL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...THOUGH THESE THREATS APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL TOO WARRANT INCLUSION OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

.MEAD.. 10/06/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061630
SWODY1
SPC AC 061628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN NEB INTO EASTERN
ND/NORTHWEST MN...

..NEB/SD/ND/MN...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE ROCKIES...WHILE BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS STATES.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW OVER CENTRAL SD WITH COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL CO. MORNING RAOBS AND
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH LITTLE WEAKENING EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR
UNTIL AT LEAST AFTER DARK. EVEN THEN...PRESENCE OF CAPPING
INVERSION AND ANAFRONT ORIENTATION OF FLOW FIELD SUGGEST GREATEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE IN 100MI ZONE BEHIND FRONT. THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS OVERNIGHT.

..MI...
MORNING RADAR LOOPS SHOW A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER UPPER MI
MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD ONTARIO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON
IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SURFACE HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA INDICATE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /25-35
KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR/ AND INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000
J/KG/ FOR A RISK OF ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THREAT
DOES NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

.HART/JEWELL.. 10/06/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFSD [061607]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 061607
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM HAIL 3 ENE FARMER 43.74N 97.63W
10/06/2007 E0.88 INCH HANSON SD PUBLIC

HAIL FELL FOR 10 MINUTES. ACCOMPANIED BY ABOUT A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN WITH LITTLE WIND.

0235 AM HAIL 2 N SPENCER 43.76N 97.59W
10/06/2007 E1.00 INCH MCCOOK SD PUBLIC

HAIL OF VARYING SIZES UP TO QUARTER SIZE FELL. HAIL
LASTED FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

&&

$$

WILLIAMS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLKN [061520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KLKN 061520
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
820 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW 4 SE ELKO 40.80N 115.71W
10/05/2007 M1.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5800 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT ELKO SUMMIT ON LAMOILLE
HIGHWAY BETWEEN ELKO AND SPRING CREEK

0900 AM SNOW 1 SE ELKO 40.83N 115.75W
10/05/2007 M0.3 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5070 FEET MSL...MEASURED ON SOUTHEAST SIDE OF ELKO

0100 PM SNOW N LAMOILLE 40.74N 115.49W
10/05/2007 M5.5 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

5750 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT LOIN2 COOP

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 S LAMOILLE 40.69N 115.48W
10/05/2007 M9.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

6300 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT POWER HOUSE PICNIC AREA AT
THE ENTRANCE TO LAMOILLE CANYON

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 S LAMOILLE 40.72N 115.49W
10/05/2007 M8.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5920 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT INTERSECTION OF SR-227 AND
LAMOILLE CANYON ROAD

0200 PM SNOW 8 SSE LAMOILLE 40.65N 115.41W
10/05/2007 M5.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

7560 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT THOMAS CANYON CAMPGROUND IN
LAMOILLE CANYON

0200 PM SNOW 11 ENE LEE 40.60N 115.37W
10/05/2007 M3.5 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

8760 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT ROADS END IN LAMOILLE CANYON

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 SSE LAMOILLE 40.73N 115.48W
10/05/2007 M7.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5880 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT PARK ON SR-227 NEAR CENTER OF
LAMOILLE

0305 PM SNOW N RYNDON 40.96N 115.61W
10/05/2007 M0.3 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

5205 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT RNDN2 COOP

0305 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N RYNDON 40.98N 115.61W
10/05/2007 M0.46 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

0.46 INCHES OF RAIN AND 1/4 INCH OF SNOW FELL AT ELBURZ.

0330 PM SNOW 5 W LAMOILLE 40.76N 115.58W
10/05/2007 M2.5 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5480 FEET MSL...MEASURED NEAR LOWER LAMOILLE ROAD IN
SPRING CREEK

0500 PM SNOW 2 NNE ELKO 40.86N 115.74W
10/05/2007 M0.9 INCH ELKO NV OFFICIAL NWS OBS

5235 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT WFO ELKO...SNOW MELTED ALMOST
CONTINUOUSLY AS IT FELL

1159 PM SNOW 14 SW WILDHORSE 41.55N 116.01W
10/05/2007 E1.4 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7250 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY JACK CREEK UPPER SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 8 NW GIBBS RANCH 41.66N 115.32W
10/05/2007 E1.9 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7200 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY DRAW CREEK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 6 NNE CHARLESTON 41.74N 115.47W
10/05/2007 E2.2 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7100 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY SEVENTYSIX CREEK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 7 W MOUNTAIN CITY 41.82N 116.10W
10/05/2007 E1.5 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7000 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY FAWN CREEK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 5 SW MOUNTAIN CITY 41.78N 116.03W
10/05/2007 E1.6 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

6700 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY LAUREL DRAW SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 12 N PARADISE VALLEY 41.67N 117.57W
10/05/2007 E4.1 INCH HUMBOLDT NV OTHER FEDERAL

7800 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY GRANITE PEAK SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 9 E JARBIDGE 41.87N 115.25W
10/05/2007 E7.9 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8330 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY POLE CREEK R.S. SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 15 SW WILDHORSE 41.53N 116.01W
10/05/2007 E8.3 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8420 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY JACKS PEAK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 6 WNW GILLMAN SPRINGS 39.29N 117.11W
10/05/2007 E5.6 INCH LANDER NV OTHER FEDERAL

8700 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY BIG CREEK SUMMIT SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 16 WSW CRESCENT VALLEY 40.36N 116.86W
10/05/2007 E1.6 INCH LANDER NV OTHER FEDERAL

7400 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY LEWIS PEAK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 9 SE LAMOILLE 40.65N 115.38W
10/05/2007 E5.0 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7700 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY LAMOILLE NUMBER 3 SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 7 NNW CLOVER VALLEY 40.94N 115.10W
10/05/2007 E2.1 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7900 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY HOLE-IN-MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 ESE MCGILL 39.32N 114.62W
10/05/2007 E6.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

9100 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY BERRY CREEK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 9 SSW ELY 39.13N 114.96W
10/05/2007 E1.4 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

9200 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY WARD MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 6 NNW RUBY LAKE 40.28N 115.53W
10/05/2007 E6.1 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8500 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY CORRAL CANYON SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 8 N RUBY VALLEY 40.89N 115.20W
10/05/2007 E5.0 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8100 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY DORSEY BASIN SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 8 ESE JIGGS 40.38N 115.53W
10/05/2007 E5.7 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8000 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY GREEN MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 17 N PARADISE VALLEY 41.75N 117.53W
10/05/2007 E4.5 INCH HUMBOLDT NV OTHER FEDERAL

6700 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY BUCKSKIN LOWER SNOTEL

0745 AM SNOW N RUTH 39.28N 114.99W
10/06/2007 M3.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

6858 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT RTHN2 COOP

0745 AM SNOW 18 WNW RUTH 39.33N 115.32W
10/06/2007 M2.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

6539 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT MOMN2 COOP

0745 AM HEAVY SNOW NE MCGILL 39.40N 114.78W
10/06/2007 M7.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

6270 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT MCGN2 COOP

0745 AM SNOW 1 N LUND 38.87N 115.02W
10/06/2007 M1.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

5546 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT LUNN2 COOP

0745 AM SNOW 1 N ELY 39.26N 114.86W
10/06/2007 E6.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

6420 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY SPOTTER NEAR HOSPITAL

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 SSE SPRING CREEK 40.70N 115.58W
10/06/2007 M9.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5630 FEET MSL...MEASURED NEAR THE HORSE PALACE

&&

$$

RCM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLKN [060920]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KLKN 060920
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
219 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW 1 SE ELKO 40.83N 115.75W
10/05/2007 M0.3 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5070 FEET MSL...MEASURED ON SOUTHEAST SIDE OF ELKO

0900 AM SNOW 4 SE ELKO 40.80N 115.71W
10/05/2007 M1.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5800 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT ELKO SUMMIT ON LAMOILLE
HIGHWAY BETWEEN ELKO AND SPRING CREEK

0100 PM SNOW N LAMOILLE 40.74N 115.49W
10/05/2007 M5.5 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

5750 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT LOIN2 COOP

0200 PM SNOW 11 ENE LEE 40.60N 115.37W
10/05/2007 M3.5 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

8760 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT ROADS END IN LAMOILLE CANYON

0200 PM SNOW 8 SSE LAMOILLE 40.65N 115.41W
10/05/2007 M5.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

7560 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT THOMAS CANYON CAMPGROUND IN
LAMOILLE CANYON

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 S LAMOILLE 40.72N 115.49W
10/05/2007 M8.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5920 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT INTERSECTION OF SR-227 AND
LAMOILLE CANYON ROAD

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 S LAMOILLE 40.69N 115.48W
10/05/2007 M9.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

6300 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT POWER HOUSE PICNIC AREA AT
THE ENTRANCE TO LAMOILLE CANYON

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 SSE LAMOILLE 40.73N 115.48W
10/05/2007 M7.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5880 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT PARK ON SR-227 NEAR CENTER OF
LAMOILLE

0305 PM SNOW N RYNDON 40.96N 115.61W
10/05/2007 M0.3 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

5205 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT RNDN2 COOP

0330 PM SNOW 5 W LAMOILLE 40.76N 115.58W
10/05/2007 M2.5 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5480 FEET MSL...MEASURED NEAR LOWER LAMOILLE ROAD IN
SPRING CREEK

0500 PM SNOW 2 NNE ELKO 40.86N 115.74W
10/05/2007 M0.9 INCH ELKO NV OFFICIAL NWS OBS

5235 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT WFO ELKO...SNOW MELTED ALMOST
CONTINUOUSLY AS IT FELL

0700 PM SNOW ELY 39.25N 114.88W
10/05/2007 E3.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

6500 FEET MSL ESTIMATED...MEASURED BY SPOTTER

1159 PM SNOW 17 N PARADISE VALLEY 41.75N 117.53W
10/05/2007 E4.5 INCH HUMBOLDT NV OTHER FEDERAL

6700 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY BUCKSKIN LOWER SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 12 N PARADISE VALLEY 41.67N 117.57W
10/05/2007 E4.1 INCH HUMBOLDT NV OTHER FEDERAL

7800 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY GRANITE PEAK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 5 SW MOUNTAIN CITY 41.78N 116.03W
10/05/2007 E1.6 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

6700 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY LAUREL DRAW SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 7 W MOUNTAIN CITY 41.82N 116.10W
10/05/2007 E1.5 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7000 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY FAWN CREEK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 6 NNE CHARLESTON 41.74N 115.47W
10/05/2007 E2.2 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7100 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY SEVENTYSIX CREEK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 8 NW GIBBS RANCH 41.66N 115.32W
10/05/2007 E1.9 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7200 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY DRAW CREEK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 14 SW WILDHORSE 41.55N 116.01W
10/05/2007 E1.4 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7250 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY JACK CREEK UPPER SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 9 E JARBIDGE 41.87N 115.25W
10/05/2007 E7.9 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8330 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY POLE CREEK R.S. SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 15 SW WILDHORSE 41.53N 116.01W
10/05/2007 E8.3 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8420 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY JACKS PEAK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 6 WNW GILLMAN SPRINGS 39.29N 117.11W
10/05/2007 E5.6 INCH LANDER NV OTHER FEDERAL

8700 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY BIG CREEK SUMMIT SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 16 WSW CRESCENT VALLEY 40.36N 116.86W
10/05/2007 E1.6 INCH LANDER NV OTHER FEDERAL

7400 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY LEWIS PEAK SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 ESE MCGILL 39.32N 114.62W
10/05/2007 E6.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

9100 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY BERRY CREEK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 9 SSW ELY 39.13N 114.96W
10/05/2007 E1.4 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

9200 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY WARD MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 6 NNW RUBY LAKE 40.28N 115.53W
10/05/2007 E6.1 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8500 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY CORRAL CANYON SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 8 N RUBY VALLEY 40.89N 115.20W
10/05/2007 E5.0 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8100 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY DORSEY BASIN SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 8 ESE JIGGS 40.38N 115.53W
10/05/2007 E5.7 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8000 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY GREEN MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 9 SE LAMOILLE 40.65N 115.38W
10/05/2007 E5.0 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7700 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY LAMOILLE NUMBER 3 SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 7 NNW CLOVER VALLEY 40.94N 115.10W
10/05/2007 E2.1 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7900 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY HOLE-IN-MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

&&

$$

RCM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060808
SWOD48
SPC AC 060807

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

..DISCUSSION...

DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF HOW UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES IN THE DAY 4-8
PERIOD STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS...MREF AND ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S. BEGINNING
TUESDAY DAY 4 AND CONTINUING INTO DAY 5 WITH ATTENDANT RETROGRESSION
OF UPPER RIDGE INTO THE SRN PLAINS ALONG WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE
GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS MOST OF
THIS PERIOD.

.DIAL.. 10/06/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060726
SWODY3
SPC AC 060724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON DETAILS OF THE UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION
AS IT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THE
GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ALL EJECT NRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
MAIN UPPER TROUGH NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS DURING THE DAY. MOST OF THE DIFFERENCES ARE A RESULT OF HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE IMPULSE FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN PHASING BETWEEN THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM IMPULSES...WHILE THE NAM CUTS SRN STREAM VORT MAX OFF OVER
THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.

..MID MS VALLEY THROUGH UPPER GREAT LAKES...

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY WILL MOVE EWD AND SEWD DURING THE DAY.
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND A 30-40 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ARE FORECAST BY
THE MODELS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEWD
EJECTING VORT MAX. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES IN THIS REGION DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF EJECTING UPPER
TROUGH. OWING TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL. STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE EWD ADVANCING FRONT
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHERE WIND
PROFILES MAY BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. GIVEN AN EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND
PROFILES...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DIAL.. 10/06/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFSD [060642]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 060642
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
142 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0126 AM HAIL 1 ESE MAGNOLIA 43.64N 96.06W
10/06/2007 E0.75 INCH ROCK MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

JCHAPMAN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFSD [060638]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 060638
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
138 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0126 AM HAIL 1 ESE MAGNOLIA 43.64N 96.05W
10/06/2007 E0.75 INCH NOBLES MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

JCHAPMAN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFSD [060612]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 060612
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
112 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 AM HAIL 4 E PARKER 43.40N 97.06W
10/06/2007 M1.00 INCH TURNER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JCHAPMAN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFSD [060559]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 060559
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1259 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM HAIL 2 SW BEAVER CREEK 43.59N 96.39W
10/06/2007 E0.75 INCH ROCK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JCHAPMAN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060528
SWODY2
SPC AC 060527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING DETAILS OF THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE ECMWF BY ADVANCING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
PLAINS AS A POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL TILT SYSTEM. THESE MODELS ARE NOW
PLACING MORE EMPHASIS ON VORT MAX FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NRN PORTION
OF UPPER TROUGH...AND VORT MAX FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH NOW APPEARS SLOWER AND WEAKER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS. THUS THE
LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO THE MASS FIELDS IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS WITH LIMITED CYCLOGENESIS AND A MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL
JET FORECAST. THESE FACTORS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.

..PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGIONS...

COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD DURING THE DAY AS CP
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL STATES. PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL
TILT...MOST OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE POST FRONTAL ZONE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CYCLOGENESIS AND
LIMITED RESPONSE OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. THUS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
AND DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR IN WARM SECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE UNDERGOES MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME EXPECTED KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTS DO NOT
APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

.DIAL.. 10/06/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060510
SWODY1
SPC AC 060507

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO
WRN MN/ERN ND...

..SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE MID/UPPER LEVELS
THROUGH PERIOD...ANCHORED BY BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER OH
VALLEY...AND STRONG WRN CONUS TROUGH. PRIMARY MID/UPPER CYCLONE --
INITIALLY EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NV -- SHOULD
EJECT NEWD OVER N-CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR
TRACK DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT AMONGST OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE
PACKAGES...CONSENSUS FCST APPEARS REASONABLE FOR LOW MOVING NEWD
ACROSS WY TO NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 7/12Z...WITH POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH TRAILING SWWD ACROSS AZ AND NRN BAJA AT THAT TIME. BROAD AND
STRONG FETCH OF SSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRECEDE TROUGH...E.G. 90-125
KT JET AT 250 MB AND 60-90 KT AT 500 MB...FROM NERN AZ ACROSS
CENTRAL CO TO NWRN SD AT 7/00Z. WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION -- NOW
INDICATED OVER MN -- SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER LS
AROUND DAYBREAK THEN ESEWD ACROSS SERN ONT AND NEW ENGLAND.

AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW OVER WY SHOULD MOVE NEWD OVER SERN ND AND
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL MAINTAIN FRONTAL-WAVE CHARACTERISTICS
FROM SERN ND ACROSS NRN MN DURING 7/00Z-7/12Z TIME FRAME. TRAILING
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD OUT OF CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
DAKOTAS/ERN WY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY END OF PERIOD...THIS
FRONT SHOULD LIE FROM BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF NRN MN SSWWD ACROSS
SIOUX-LAND AREA...S-CENTRAL NEB AND EXTREME WRN KS. SECONDARY/WAVE
LOW MAY FORM ALONG FRONT BY 7/00Z INVOF CO/NEB BORDER...BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE AMIDST EWD FRONTAL SURGE. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT
NOW OVER SRN SD AND CENTRAL MN SHOULD DRIFT NWD INTO N-CENTRAL MN
AND SERN ND.

..CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...
COLD FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES INVOF COLD FRONT ZONE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
BENEATH ERN EDGE OF AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB FLOW BELT. MOST ENLARGED
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN
-- INVOF FRONTAL-WAVE LOW AND EWD ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE ASSOCIATED
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL ENHANCE/BACK LOW LEVEL WINDS. FOR HOWEVER
LONG THAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE OVER
LATTER REGION...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK..LATTER BEING MAXIMIZED IN ZONE OF
200-400 J/KG OF 0-3 KM SRH. SECONDARY AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR -- E OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW -- ALSO MAY
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF CAPPING IN THIS AREA
CAN MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE/TAIL-END STORMS AS INDICATED BY
SOME MODELS AND BY FCST SOUNDINGS.

MAIN CONCERNS/UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDING LARGER SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM
ARE THREEFOLD AND INTERRELATED --

1. GEOMETRY/MODE OF CONVECTION -- WITH FORCING BOUNDARY LYING
LARGELY PARALLEL TO MIDLEVEL AND MEAN FLOW VECTORS. THIS INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK TRANSITION AWAY FROM DISCRETE STORMS TO
LINEAR...MESSY AND INTERFERENCE-PRONE CONVECTIVE PATTERN.
2. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND SFC COLD
FRONT.
3. LARGE PROPORTION OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE BEHIND SFC
COLD FRONT. DIURNAL/SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT
GIVEN FAVORABLY STG WARM SECTOR INSOLATION AND MOISTURE...AS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MEAN WIND VECTORS PARALLEL TO FCST FRONTAL
ORIENTATION INDICATE ANY MOTION OF BOUNDARY WILL YIELD ANAFRONTAL
REGIME...AND THAT INITIALLY SFC-BASED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT
MAY GO BEHIND IT. SEVERAL PROGS ALSO INDICATE AREAS OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP DISTINCTLY W OF BOUNDARY FROM SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE NEWD.

..UPPER GREAT LAKES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP E OF STRONGEST CAPPING...IN ZONE
OF FAVORABLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND WAA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND STG/DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 60S F SFC DEW POINTS
SUPPORTING 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES. THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ENOUGH VEERING WITH HEIGHT -- FROM WSW OR SW FLOW AT SFC TO WNWLY
ALOFT -- TO YIELD ENLARGED 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK TO MRGL -- E.G. 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER MUCH OF
REGION. WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACCOMPANYING DNVA MAY OCCUR BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND INVOF SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL STABILIZATION IS NOT EVIDENT IN MODEL
FCST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING THAT EFFECT WILL BE MORE THAN
COUNTERBALANCED BY ENHANCEMENT TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA.

ERN-MOST EXTENSION OF THIS REGIME AND/OR SEPARATE AREA OF SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY REACH ACROSS INTERVENING PORTIONS ONT
TOWARD NRN NY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...SVR POTENTIAL
THAT FAR E APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/MRGL ATTM TO WARRANT AOA
5-PERCENT PROBABILITY LINE.

.EDWARDS/BRIGHT.. 10/06/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KSLC [060456]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 060456
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1056 PM MDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MILFORD 38.39N 113.01W
10/05/2007 M0 MPH BEAVER UT AIRPLANE PILOT

58-63 MPH WINDS FROM 945 AM THROUGH 1230 PM

0945 AM HIGH SUST WINDS MILFORD 40.61N 111.90W
10/05/2007 E45 MPH SALT LAKE UT ASOS

WINDS 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 60-65 FROM 0945 THROUGH 1230 MDT.

&&

$$

BSMITH

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KSLC [060451]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 060451
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1050 PM MDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N MILFORD 38.42N 113.01W
10/05/2007 M58 MPH BEAVER UT MESONET

GUSTS UP TO 63 MPH.

&&

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KTFX [060438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 060438
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1038 PM MDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM SNOW 14 SW BABB 48.72N 113.65W
10/05/2007 E5.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET

ESTIMATED 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
LOCATION IS MANY GLACIER SNOTEL...AT 4900 FEET.

0800 PM SNOW 27 NW HELENA 46.87N 112.42W
10/05/2007 E4.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT MESONET

ESTIMATED 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. LOCATION IS NEVADA RIDGE SNOTEL...AT 7020 FEET.

0800 PM SNOW 15 SW CAMERON 45.05N 111.90W
10/05/2007 E8.0 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

ESTIMATED 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
LOCATION IS CLOVER MEDOW SNOTEL...AT 5600 FEET.

0800 PM SNOW 16 ENE ENNIS 45.43N 111.43W
10/05/2007 E8.0 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

ESTIMATED 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. LOCATION IS LONE MOUNTAIN SNOTEL...AT 8880 FEET.

0800 PM SNOW 15 NW ENNIS 45.50N 111.95W
10/05/2007 E8.0 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

ESTIMATED 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. LOCATION IS LOWER TWIN MOUNTAIN SNOTEL...AT 7900
FEET.

0800 PM SNOW 6 N BASIN 46.36N 112.26W
10/05/2007 E7.0 INCH JEFFERSON MT MESONET

ESTIMATED 7 INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
LOCATION IS ROCKER PEAK SNOTEL...AT 8000 FEET.

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW 22 NW WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.89N 111.42W
10/05/2007 E13.0 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

ESTIMATED 13 INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
LOCATION IS CARROT BASIN SNOTEL...AT 9000 FEET.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.