SWODY3
SPC AC 060724
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON DETAILS OF THE UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION
AS IT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THE
GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ALL EJECT NRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
MAIN UPPER TROUGH NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS DURING THE DAY. MOST OF THE DIFFERENCES ARE A RESULT OF HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE IMPULSE FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN PHASING BETWEEN THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM IMPULSES...WHILE THE NAM CUTS SRN STREAM VORT MAX OFF OVER
THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.
..MID MS VALLEY THROUGH UPPER GREAT LAKES...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY WILL MOVE EWD AND SEWD DURING THE DAY.
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND A 30-40 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ARE FORECAST BY
THE MODELS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEWD
EJECTING VORT MAX. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES IN THIS REGION DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF EJECTING UPPER
TROUGH. OWING TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL. STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE EWD ADVANCING FRONT
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHERE WIND
PROFILES MAY BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. GIVEN AN EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND
PROFILES...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.
.DIAL.. 10/06/2007
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