Thursday, May 31, 2007

KOAX [312027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 312027
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
326 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0257 PM HAIL WILBER 40.48N 96.96W
05/31/2007 E0.75 INCH SALINE NE LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

SMITH

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KLWX [312026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 312026
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
426 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM TSTM WND DMG DAYTON 38.41N 78.94W
05/31/2007 ROCKINGHAM VA EMERGENCY MNGR

1 TREE DOWN.


&&

$$

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KGLD [312025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 312025
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL 11 W WINONA 39.06N 101.45W
05/31/2007 E0.88 INCH LOGAN KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

KJAMES

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KGID [312024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 312024
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
324 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 W PHILLIPSBURG 39.75N 99.34W
05/31/2007 PHILLIPS KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGID [312022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 312022
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HAIL 1 W WOODRUFF 39.99N 99.44W
05/31/2007 E1.75 INCH PHILLIPS KS TRAINED SPOTTER

40 TO 50 MPH WINDS ALSO REPORTED


&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGLD [312021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 312021
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL 10 SE ATWOOD 39.71N 100.91W
05/31/2007 E0.75 INCH RAWLINS KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KJAMES

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KALY [312017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 312017
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HAIL POESTENKILL 42.69N 73.56W
05/31/2007 E1.75 INCH RENSSELAER NY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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KALY [312009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 312009
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL EAST GREENBUSH 42.59N 73.70W
05/31/2007 E0.88 INCH RENSSELAER NY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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KGID [312008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 312008
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
308 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0307 PM HAIL 1 W PRAIRIE VIEW 39.83N 99.59W
05/31/2007 E1.75 INCH PHILLIPS KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGLD [312008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 312008
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0206 PM TSTM WND GST NORTON 39.84N 99.89W
05/31/2007 M60 MPH NORTON KS AWOS


&&

$$

CFOLTZ

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KALY [312002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 312002
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
402 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0353 PM HAIL ALBANY 42.66N 73.78W
05/31/2007 M0.75 INCH ALBANY NY NWS EMPLOYEE

AT NWS OFFICE


&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311954
SWODY1
SPC AC 311952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE
NRN PLAINS SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS...

..CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
COMPLEX SCENARIO EXISTS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SEVERAL BANDS OF
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE EXIST ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR LOW OVER
SD. MOST ACTIVE BANDS OF POTENTIAL AND/OR ONGOING TSTMS SEEM TO BE
SITUATED FROM: 1/ SERN-SCNTRL NEB SWWD INTO NWRN KS AND EXTREME NERN
CO ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/LEE TROUGH -AND- 2/ SCNTRL SD SWWD INTO
NERN CO ALONG THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.

PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST ACTIVE INTO THIS
EVENING. SATL/PROFILERS SHOW EVIDENCE OF A 50+ KT H5 JET NOSING EWD
FROM CO TOWARD KS LATE THIS AFTN WITH LEFT-EXIT REGION LIKELY TO
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE MDT RISK AREA BY EARLY EVE. CONTINUED
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO TSTMS BACKBUILDING/DEVELOPING SWWD FROM ONGOING NEB
MCS INTO WRN KS...SERN CO AND POSSIBLY THE OK/TX PNHDLS BY 21-23Z.
PROFILER HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO STEEP H7-H5
LAPSE RATES. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH
INITIAL STORMS ALONG SRN PARTS OF THE MDT RISK WHERE SUBSTANTIAL 60S
SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD ADVECT NWD BY EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM SD INTO CNTRL NEB AND NERN CO SHOULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST ISOLD HAIL...THOUGH INFLUENCE OF THE TSTM COMPLEXES TO THE
SOUTH SHOULD LIMIT INFLOW SOMEWHAT.

SEVERAL MCS/S SHOULD EVOLVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS KS...NWRN/WRN OK AND
PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS KS AND NWRN OK CLOSER TO
THE MID-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM.

..W TX/SERN NM...
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TX AND NM LATE
AFTN/EVE...AIDED BY A SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE SRN
PLATEAU. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...THOUGH 40-50 KT
H3-H25 FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR VENTING AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVE
AND MAY YIELD LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

..ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...
TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS LIKELY BEING
SUPPORTED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED ALONG PERIPHERY OF THE UPR
RIDGE. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABOUT
30 KT OF NWLY H5 FLOW. TSTMS WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE LWR HUDSON
VLY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS DEEPLY MIXED.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. SRN
BOUNDS/ERN EDGES OF THE SVR THREAT WILL BE MODULATED BY MARINE
ENVIRONMENT AND BACKDOOR FRONT.

..CNTRL APLCNS...
SCT TSTMS CONTINUE BENEATH WARM UPR RIDGE...FAVORING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE APLCNS. ISOLD STORMS MAY PRODUCE DOWNBURST WINDS AND
OR/HAIL APPROACHING SVR LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH SUNSET.

..MID/LWR MS VLY...
A FEW TSTMS WILL FAVOR WRN EDGE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT SITUATED FROM
THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE LWR MS VLY. STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FROM ECNTRL LA/WCNTRL MS SWD TO THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER
SRN LA. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT UNTIL
JUST AFTER SUNSET.

.RACY.. 05/31/2007

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KGLD [311951]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 311951
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM HAIL 2 N CALVERT 39.86N 99.76W
05/31/2007 E1.00 INCH NORTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND


&&

$$

CFOLTZ

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KGLD [311939]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 311939
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
139 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 PM HAIL 3 W OBERLIN 39.82N 100.59W
05/31/2007 E0.75 INCH DECATUR KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND


&&

$$

KJAMES

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KLCH [311938]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 311938
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
238 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0238 PM HAIL CREOLE 29.80N 93.11W
05/31/2007 M0.88 INCH CAMERON LA PUBLIC

REPORTED BY EMPLOYEE AT GENERAL MARINE.


&&

$$

MOGGED

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KTFX [311937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 311937
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
137 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 7 SSE BOZEMAN 45.58N 110.99W
05/23/2007 GALLATIN MT PUBLIC

FUNNEL CLOUD FROM CONVECTIVE SHOWER SIGHTED BY SEVERAL
WITNESSES.


&&

$$

DREILLY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0936

ACUS11 KWNS 311933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311933
NMZ000-312100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311933Z - 312100Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

LATEST RUC GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WHERE CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT INITIATION OF SCATTERED
STORMS WILL OCCUR BY 21-22Z ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FROM THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
BROAD SUBTROPICAL STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40-50+ KT 300-250 MB FLOW
IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. AND...IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.KERR.. 05/31/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

32440491 33070554 33720551 34350551 35290558 36020553
36470525 36650426 36860311 35440391 34450409 33630372
33100358 32480373

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KGLD [311932]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 311932
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
132 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HAIL 5 NW NORTON 39.89N 99.96W
05/31/2007 E1.00 INCH NORTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CFOLTZ

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KGLD [311932]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 311932
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM HAIL 6 W OBERLIN 39.82N 100.64W
05/31/2007 M1.00 INCH DECATUR KS BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

CFOLTZ

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KTFX [311929]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 311929
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
129 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM DOWNBURST 4 SSW BOULDER 46.18N 112.15W
05/10/2007 JEFFERSON MT NWS STORM SURVEY

NUMEROUS TREES...60 TO 80 EVERGREENS...UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED OFF IN A CANYON ALONG THE LITTLE BOULDER RIVER.
DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS 80 TO
100 MPH CHANNELING THROUGH THE CANYON WITH TREES KNOCKED
DOWN IN SAME DIRECTION. FEW TREES AT END OF PATH DAMAGE
PUSHED DOWN IN OPPOSITE DIRECTION POSSIBLY A RESULT OF A
WEAK VORTEX OR EDDY. DAMAGE PATH LENGTH 0.5 MILES...PATH
WIDTH 300 YARDS.


&&

$$

DREILLY

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KRNK [311928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 311928
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
328 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HAIL SIMMONSVILLE 37.38N 80.37W
05/31/2007 E0.75 INCH CRAIG VA PUBLIC

ALSO 1.00 INCH RAIN

0315 PM HAIL BLACKSBURG 37.23N 80.42W
05/31/2007 M1.00 INCH MONTGOMERY VA NWS EMPLOYEE

0316 PM HAIL BLACKSBURG 37.23N 80.42W
05/31/2007 E0.75 INCH MONTGOMERY VA PUBLIC

PRESTON FOREST


&&

$$

AMS

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KALY [311925]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KALY 311925
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM HAIL RUSSIA 43.26N 75.08W
05/31/2007 E0.75 INCH HERKIMER NY PUBLIC

0312 PM HAIL RUSSIA 43.26N 75.08W
05/31/2007 M1.00 INCH HERKIMER NY PUBLIC


&&

$$

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KBGM [311925]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 311925
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
324 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM HAIL HARVEYS LAKE 41.36N 76.03W
05/31/2007 E0.75 INCH LUZERNE PA PUBLIC


&&

$$

MSE

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KALY [311922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 311922
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
322 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM HAIL RUSSIA 43.26N 75.08W
05/31/2007 M1.00 INCH HERKIMER NY PUBLIC


&&

$$

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KLCH [311918]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 311918
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
218 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL ABBEVILLE 29.97N 92.12W
05/31/2007 M0.75 INCH VERMILION LA CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

DML

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KLIX [311918]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 311918
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
217 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM TSTM WND DMG BAYOU SORREL 30.16N 91.34W
05/31/2007 IBERVILLE LA EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN THE BAYOU SORREL AND
PIGEON AREAS.


&&

$$

RSW

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KRNK [311909]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 311909
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0302 PM HAIL BLACKSBURG 37.23N 80.42W
05/31/2007 E0.75 INCH MONTGOMERY VA PUBLIC

ACROSS FROM HOSPITAL


&&

$$

AMS

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KALY [311911]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 311911
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
310 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0304 PM TSTM WND DMG CHARLTON 42.93N 73.97W
05/31/2007 SARATOGA NY NWS EMPLOYEE

TWO TREES DOWN.


&&

$$

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KCHS [311858]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 311858
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
258 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM WILDFIRE NORTH CHARLESTON 32.85N 79.97W
05/31/2007 CHARLESTON SC NWS EMPLOYEE

20-30 FT BURNED ALONG I-26 WESTBOUND NEAR RIVERS AVE
EXIT...FIRE HAD ADVANCED INTO TREELINE.

0240 PM WILDFIRE 1 E PEMBROKE 32.14N 81.61W
05/31/2007 BRYAN GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLARE UP OF ONGOING WILDFIRE...SMOKE HAD REDUCED
VISIBILITY ON US ROUTE 280 AND GA ROUTE 119...1 HOME
EVACUATED.


&&

$$

SPR

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KLWX [311855]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 311855
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM TSTM WND DMG BLUE GRASS 38.50N 79.55W
05/31/2007 HIGHLAND VA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN ALONG RT. 642.


&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0935

ACUS11 KWNS 311854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311854
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-312030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 311854Z - 312030Z

CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MAY BE SUPPORTED
BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDING THE CREST OF UPPER
RIDGE. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...ON
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A BELT OF 30 KT NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS BECOMING DEEPLY MIXED WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING 90F AND DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO HELP ORGANIZE A
SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD POOL NEXT
FEW HOURS. AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY INTO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH 21-22Z...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE
VIGOR OF NEW UPDRAFTS IN DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT MAY FAVOR GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS...AND ALONG
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL...PERHAPS APPROACHING THE NEW YORK
CITY AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER MARINE AIR MASS.

.KERR.. 05/31/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...BGM...

43227482 43157399 42697356 42327337 42017319 41677331
41457360 41347400 41647447 42297447

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KRNK [311823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 311823
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
223 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL HILLSVILLE 36.77N 80.73W
05/31/2007 E0.75 INCH CARROLL VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

PENNY HAIL REPORTED IN HILLSVILLE.


&&

$$

JH

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KGLD [311823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 311823
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1223 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1222 PM HAIL 13 SSE MCCOOK 40.03N 100.53W
05/31/2007 E0.75 INCH RED WILLOW NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KJAMES

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KGLD [311820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 311820
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1220 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1218 PM HAIL 3 N TRAER 39.97N 100.65W
05/31/2007 E1.00 INCH DECATUR KS TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 45 MPH WINDS


&&

$$

KJAMES

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 312

WWUS20 KWNS 311805
SEL2
SPC WW 311805
COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-010100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL
700 PM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 135 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BURLINGTON COLORADO. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE IN ALLEY OF FAVORABLE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE SEWD FROM SERN WY. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS MUCAPE
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 100-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER IS ALSO ON THE
INCREASE AT 50-60 KT FROM CENTRAL CO INTO W CENTRAL KS JUST AHEAD OF
MID LEVEL JET EXIT REGION. EXPECT MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL
JET EXIT REGION AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND LOW LEVEL
JET BECOMES MORE DEFINED BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.


..MCCARTHY

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KGLD [311806]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 311806
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1206 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 AM HAIL 4 SW TRENTON 40.13N 101.07W
05/31/2007 E1.00 INCH HITCHCOCK NE TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERING HWY 25


&&

$$

KJAMES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0934

ACUS11 KWNS 311801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311801
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-311930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO N CNTRL
VA...CNTRL MD...SERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 311801Z - 311930Z

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY WEAK...BUT STRONG HEATING OF A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPINE OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THIS IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
REGIME WITHIN WARM CORE RIDGE...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 20-21Z. BUT...ONCE THIS
OCCURS...A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND CONSOLIDATING COLD
POOLS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. SOME HAIL COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY
STRONGER CELLS ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.

.KERR.. 05/31/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

39857854 39927826 39927776 39947723 39937663 39657663
39107737 38507791 38037815 37607903 37028001 37028074
37578080 39567918

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KGLD [311746]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 311746
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1146 AM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1143 AM HAIL 7 S TRENTON 40.07N 101.01W
05/31/2007 E0.75 INCH HITCHCOCK NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KJAMES

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KGLD [311745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 311745
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 AM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1142 AM HAIL 9 SSE TRENTON 40.05N 100.95W
05/31/2007 E1.00 INCH HITCHCOCK NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KJAMES

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KGLD [311738]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 311738
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1138 AM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 AM HAIL 6 SSE TRENTON 40.09N 100.97W
05/31/2007 E0.75 INCH HITCHCOCK NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KJAMES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0933

ACUS11 KWNS 311733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311733
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-311900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...SW NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311733Z - 311900Z

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY NEAR THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WEST OF MCCOOK. THIS APPEARS GENERALLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH BELT OF
40+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW NOW NOSING EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. AND
..AS ONGOING STORMS SPREAD TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED THROUGH 20-21Z. LIKELY INITIALLY
ELEVATED IN NATURE...FURTHER MOISTENING AND HEATING OF BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH PEAK HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
MAY BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH SLOWLY EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.KERR.. 05/31/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

40050208 40450053 41189939 40699770 39659774 37760007
37220258 37910359 39240263 39630252

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311731
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPR MS
VLY/CORN BELT SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW VCNTY SD WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TDY/FRI. SEVERAL LOBES OF
VORTICITY WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW WITH SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONGER H5 FLOW ROUGHLY ALONG 40 DEG N. AT THE SFC...A SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY...ENHANCED BY CONVECTION WILL EXIST FROM A LOW OVER ERN SD
SWD INTO ERN NEB...ERN KS AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING FRI
AFTN. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST WHILE A
LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE PERSISTS FROM ECNTRL NM INTO SWRN TX.

ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WRN GULF BASIN IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT ENEWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA LATER IN
THE WEEK...BUT MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH TIMING/LOCATION. TROPICAL
AIR MASS SHOULD ADVECT NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO AT LEAST
CNTRL/SRN FL BY FRI NIGHT.

..ERN PARTS OF CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE CORN BELT...
ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z FRI ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ERN NEB SWD INTO CNTRL/ERN KS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE EWD INTO PARTS
OF IA AND MO DURING THE MORNING WITH ATTENDANT ISOLD SVR THREATS.
LLJ WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR LOW THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS COULD BACKBUILD AND/OR DEVELOP
SEPARATELY DURING THE AFTN/EVE FROM PARTS OF WRN IA SWWD INTO ERN
KS. STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ALONG OUTSKIRTS OF MORNING
STORMS ESPECIALLY WHERE 60S SFC DEW POINTS CAN RECOVER. BOTH
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
SUPERCELLS...THOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW THE STORMS WILL
EVOLVE. ALL FACETS OF SVR WEATHER APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS
THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND ENSUES NEAR THE MS RVR
VLY OVERNIGHT.

..SCNTRL PLAINS...
SRN-END OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS/S MAY BE ONGOING THROUGH FRI MORNING
ACROSS CNTRL/WRN OK...THOUGH STRONGEST SUPPORT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS WHERE STRONGER FLOW/FORCING REGIMES WILL BE
ESTABLISHED. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SCNTRL PLAINS AND AT
LEAST MODEST SLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW COULD SUSTAIN ANY ESTABLISHED TSTM
CLUSTER INTO THE AFTN ACROSS OK AND N TX. OTHERWISE...IN WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM...DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF RECOVERY... OTHER STORMS
MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD SPREAD SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLD HIGH
WINDS/HAIL.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM AND WRN TX...
OUTFLOW FROM CNTRL PLAINS TSTMS SHOULD BACKDOOR WWD ACROSS NERN NM
AND THE TX/OK HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRI. ELY COMPONENT OF MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTN
INSOLATION SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH ELEVATION TSTM INITIATION
BY MID-AFTN FRI. TSTMS WILL TEND TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE ALONG AN AXIS
OF INSTABILITY INTO THE TX PNHDL AND NWRN TX DURING THE EVE. OTHER
ISOLD STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO SWRN TX.

UPR FLOW REGIME WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN AT POINTS FARTHER
N. DESPITE THE WEAKER FLOW...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BECOME AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. PRIMARY THREATS WILL
BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

..NRN PLAINS...
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BENEATH COLD CORE ALOFT ACCOMPANYING H5
LOW OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN DAKS FRI AFTN. ISOLD STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES/HAIL.

..CNTRL/SRN FL...
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST UPPER LOW OVER NRN GULF PROGRESSES...
HODOGRAPHS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES/TORNADOES. HOWEVER... THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY IN
THIS REGION. THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EJECTION/EVOLUTION OF
THE TROUGH WILL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM.

.RACY.. 05/31/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 311717
SWODY1
SPC AC 311716

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OK
PANHANDLE...MUCH OF WRN KS INTO S CENTRAL NEB....

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX INTO ERN NM AND ERN CO...INTO SERN SD SWD
INTO THE NWRN HALF OF OK....

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM S CENTRAL
PA INTO NWRN VA....

CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE

..SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUAL AND COMPLEX PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH LARGE
VORTEX CENTERED OVER WRN ND/SD AND COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL HALF OF THE U.S. MODELS SEEM TO VARY IN SOLUTIONS AS
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATE
CYCLONICALLY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CO...THEN EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER AND UPPER MS RIVER AREAS.
MEANWHILE...RIDGING REMAINS FIRM OFF THE SRN CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
AND OVER PARTS OF THE NWRN U.S. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

IT IS NOT TOTALLY CLEAR CUT HOW EVERYTHING UNFOLDS...BUT MANY OF THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE CO/KS/NEB BORDER AREAS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE NAM...OLD
GFS AND NGM DEVELOP 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM WRN TX NWD/NEWD INTO
CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO SWRN KS EARLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES DEPICT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM BETWEEN
MAF - LBB EWD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX INTO EXTREME SERN
OK. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY... MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S AND
MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1500-3000 J/KG.

MODELS ALSO INDICATE MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX WITH MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-55 KT. THIS
SIGNALS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL THEN FOR MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME
FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY OVER ERN PARTS OF CO INTO NERN NM...BUT MORE LIKELY EARLY
TONIGHT ALONG THE CO/NEB BORDER INTO EXTREME WRN KS AND ALONG THE
NRN NM/TX BORDER WHERE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD BE
LOCATED. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD THEN DEVELOP RAPIDLY EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ENHANCES UVVS
ACROSS KS INTO NEB... AND ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. WHILE
THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES INITIALLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD AGGREGATE INTO MORE LINEAR MODE
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MAIN THREAT SHOULD THEN BECOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH MCS/MCC TONIGHT.

..PARTS OF S CENTRAL PA SWD INTO NWRN VA...

RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATES BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 10-12C DEW
POINTS FROM SC NWD THRU CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL AND ERN NY STATE.
ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING.
THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG
DOWNBURSTS.

.MCCARTHY.. 05/31/2007

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KILN [311659]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 311659
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG WILMINGTON 39.44N 83.83W
05/30/2007 CLINTON OH NWS STORM SURVEY

TWO THIRDS OF THE ROOF WAS PEELED OFF OF THE WILMINGTON
HIGH SCHOOL AUDITORIUM.


&&

$$

MJP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311657
SWODY1
SPC AC 311655

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OK
PANHANDLE...MUCH OF WRN KS INTO S CENTRAL NEB....

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX INTO ERN NM AND ERN CO...INTO SERN SD SWD
INTO THE NWRN HALF OF OK....

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM S CENTRAL
NEB INTO NWRN VA....

..SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUAL AND COMPLEX PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH LARGE
VORTEX CENTERED OVER WRN ND/SD AND COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL HALF OF THE U.S. MODELS SEEM TO VARY IN SOLUTIONS AS
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATE
CYCLONICALLY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CO...THEN EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER AND UPPER MS RIVER AREAS.
MEANWHILE...RIDGING REMAINS FIRM OFF THE SRN CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
AND OVER PARTS OF THE NWRN U.S. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

IT IS NOT TOTALLY CLEAR CUT HOW EVERYTHING UNFOLDS...BUT MANY OF THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE CO/KS/NEB BORDER AREAS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE NAM...OLD
GFS AND NGM DEVELOP 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM WRN TX NWD/NEWD INTO
CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO SWRN KS EARLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES DEPICT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM BETWEEN
MAF - LBB EWD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX INTO EXTREME SERN
OK. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY... MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S AND
MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1500-3000 J/KG.

MODELS ALSO INDICATE MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX WITH MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-55 KT. THIS
SIGNALS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL THEN FOR MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME
FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY OVER ERN PARTS OF CO INTO NERN NM...BUT MORE LIKELY EARLY
TONIGHT ALONG THE CO/NEB BORDER INTO EXTREME WRN KS AND ALONG THE
NRN NM/TX BORDER WHERE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD BE
LOCATED. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD THEN DEVELOP RAPIDLY EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ENHANCES UVVS
ACROSS KS INTO NEB... AND ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. WHILE
THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES INITIALLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD AGGREGATE INTO MORE LINEAR MODE
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MAIN THREAT SHOULD THEN BECOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH MCS/MCC TONIGHT.

..PARTS OF S CENTRAL PA SWD INTO NWRN VA...

RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATES BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 10-12C DEW
POINTS FROM SC NWD THRU CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL AND ERN NY STATE.
ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING.
THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG
DOWNBURSTS.

.MCCARTHY/SCHNEIDER.. 05/31/2007

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KGLD [311654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 311654
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1054 AM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1053 AM HAIL BENKELMAN 40.05N 101.54W
05/31/2007 M0.50 INCH DUNDY NE CO-OP OBSERVER

THERE IS 2 INCHES OF HAIL ON THE GROUND.


&&

$$

KJAMES

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

764
WOUS40 KWNS 311643
PWOSPC
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-010045-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM

A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO SURFACE TROUGH TO
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. A BAND OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN MOST NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION OF ACTIVITY INTO ONE
OR TWO LARGE STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..KERR.. 05/31/2007

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KGLD [311633]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 311633
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1032 AM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM HAIL BENKELMAN 40.05N 101.54W
05/31/2007 E1.00 INCH DUNDY NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KJAMES

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KSJT [311513]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KSJT 311513
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1013 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 AM HAIL 1 ENE GRAPE CREEK 31.59N 100.53W
05/29/2007 E1.75 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0139 AM HAIL 5 N SAN ANGELO 31.52N 100.46W
05/29/2007 E1.75 INCH TOM GREEN TX AMATEUR RADIO

NEAR BLUEGRASS ST AND MEADOW ST ON NORTH SIDE OF TOWN.


&&

$$

JBRAZZEL

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KJAX [311506]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 311506
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1105 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0824 PM WILDFIRE 2 SSE STARKE 29.92N 82.10W
05/30/2007 BRADFORD FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EXISTING BRUSH FIRE FLARED UP PROMPTING A BRIEF CLOSURE
OF STATE ROAD 100. FIRE WAS BROUGHT UNDER CONTROL.


&&

$$

CARROLL

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