Tuesday, September 18, 2007

KKEY [190012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 190012
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
812 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0751 PM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW GRASSY KEY 24.76N 80.99W
09/18/2007 M47 MPH MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL MESONET

A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 41 KNOTS WAS MEASURED AT THE
BURNT POINT CITIZEN WEATHER OBSERVATION SITE AT 751 PM
EDT.


&&

$$

BS

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KGID [190011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 190011
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
710 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HEAVY RAIN YORK 40.87N 97.60W
09/18/2007 M1.95 INCH YORK NE CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

NWS

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KDMX [190010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 190010
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
710 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG SSW LA PORTE CITY 42.31N 92.19W
09/18/2007 BLACK HAWK IA BROADCAST MEDIA

8 TO 10 INCH TREE BRANCES DOWN BLOCKING ROAD AT IOWA AND
SYCAMORE. FROM KWWL TV.


&&

$$

SMALL

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KGID [190008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 190008
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
708 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0428 PM HAIL JUNIATA 40.59N 98.51W
09/18/2007 E1.00 INCH ADAMS NE PUBLIC

HAIL SIZE WAS AT LEAST AS BIG AS QUARTERS.


&&

$$

NWS

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KARX [190008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 190008
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
708 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0702 PM TSTM WND GST EDGEWOOD 42.65N 91.40W
09/18/2007 M62 MPH CLAYTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ADAMS

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KDVN [190008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 190008
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
707 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0703 PM TSTM WND GST N EDGEWOOD 42.64N 91.40W
09/18/2007 M62 MPH DELAWARE IA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ELLIOTT

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KKEY [190004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 190004
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
803 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0729 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE CUDJOE KEY 24.65N 81.48W
09/18/2007 M39 MPH LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL TRAINED SPOTTER

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSED ACROSS CUDJOE KEY PRODUCING A
MEASURED WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS AT 729 PM EDT.


&&

$$

BS

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KFWD [190003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 190003
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM TSTM WND GST 16 NW JACKSBORO 33.35N 98.30W
09/18/2007 E60 MPH JACK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN ANTELOPE AND SQUAW MOUNTAIN

$$

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KDDC [190002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 190002
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
702 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM HAIL 9 SSW LAKE CITY 37.24N 98.88W
09/18/2007 E0.75 INCH BARBER KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

LACY

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KDVN [190000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 190000
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
659 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0644 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N VINTON 42.15N 92.03W
09/18/2007 M0.44 INCH BENTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN FELL IN 8 MINUTE PERIOD.


&&

$$

ELLIOTT

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KDVN [182357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 182357
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
657 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0641 PM TSTM WND DMG KEYSTONE 42.00N 92.20W
09/18/2007 BENTON IA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

55000 BUSHEL GRAIN BIN BLOWN OVER. FERTILIZER STORAGE BIN
BLOWN 30 FEET, BUILDING IS APPROX. 20X20X30.


&&

$$

ELLIOTT

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KDVN [182354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 182354
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
653 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0638 PM TSTM WND DMG VICTOR 41.73N 92.29W
09/18/2007 IOWA IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

1 TO 2 INCH TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN IN TOWN. WINDS
ESTIMATED IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.


&&

$$

ELLIOTT

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KDVN [182352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 182352
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
652 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ESE TROY MILLS 42.26N 91.64W
09/18/2007 E65 MPH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ELLIOTT

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KDVN [182351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 182351
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0643 PM TSTM WND DMG SE VINTON 42.16N 92.03W
09/18/2007 BENTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

AT 63 RD AND 28 TH, LARGE HEALTHY OAK TREE BLOWN DOWN.


&&

$$

ELLIOTT

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KGID [182346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 182346
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
646 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0646 PM HEAVY RAIN FAIRMONT 40.64N 97.58W
09/18/2007 E1.25 INCH FILLMORE NE PUBLIC

1.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN FAIRMONT. MINOR FLOODING WAS
REPORTED.


&&

$$

NWS

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KDVN [182345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 182345
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
645 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0642 PM TSTM WND GST INDEPENDENCE 42.47N 91.89W
09/18/2007 E60 MPH BUCHANAN IA CO-OP OBSERVER

AT JUNCTION OF HIGHWAY 20 AND HIGHWAY 150 AT WALMART
STORE.


&&

$$

ELLIOTT

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KOAX [182343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 182343
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
643 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0636 PM TSTM WND GST MAGNOLIA 41.69N 95.87W
09/18/2007 E60.00 MPH HARRISON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

SIX TO EIGHT INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWNED.

0637 PM TSTM WND GST LOGAN 41.64N 95.79W
09/18/2007 E65.00 MPH HARRISON IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWNED IN TOWN.


&&

$$

CHERMOK

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KGID [182338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 182338
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0637 PM HAIL GENEVA 40.53N 97.60W
09/18/2007 E1.00 INCH FILLMORE NE EMERGENCY MNGR

DIMES MOSTLY...BUT A FEW QUARTER SIZE HAIL STONES ON THE
WEST SIDE OF TOWN.


&&

$$

NWS

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KDVN [182332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 182332
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
632 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 PM HEAVY RAIN BELLE PLAINE 41.90N 92.27W
09/18/2007 M0.70 INCH BENTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL SINCE 6 PM.


&&

$$

ELLIOTT

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KDVN [182330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 182330
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
630 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0624 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N VINTON 42.15N 92.03W
09/18/2007 M79 MPH BENTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

STEADY WINDS AT 46 MPH.


&&

$$

ELLIOTT

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KOAX [182329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 182329
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
629 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0622 PM TSTM WND GST MODALE 41.62N 96.01W
09/18/2007 E60 MPH HARRISON IA PUBLIC

LARGE TREE BRANCHES AND A FEW OLD TREES DOWNED.


&&

$$

CHERMOK

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KDVN [182326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 182326
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
626 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0624 PM TSTM WND GST 7 SW VINTON 42.09N 92.12W
09/18/2007 E65 MPH BENTON IA EMERGENCY MNGR

RELAYED BY EM. REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.


&&

$$

ELLIOTT

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KDDC [182325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 182325
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
625 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0618 PM HAIL 8 ESE WILMORE 37.28N 99.09W
09/18/2007 E0.75 INCH COMANCHE KS PUBLIC

ESTIMATED AT JUST UNDER NICKEL SIZE.


&&

$$

LACY

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KDVN [182324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 182324
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
624 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0621 PM TSTM WND GST VAN HORNE 42.01N 92.09W
09/18/2007 E60 MPH BENTON IA EMERGENCY MNGR

BY FIRE DEPARTMENT AT VAN HORNE.


&&

$$

ELLIOTT

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KDVN [182323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 182323
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
623 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM TSTM WND GST GARRISON 42.14N 92.14W
09/18/2007 M46 MPH BENTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

STEADY WINDS AT 40 MPH. GUST TO 46 MPH.


&&

$$

ELLIOTT

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KDVN [182315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 182315
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
615 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0613 PM TSTM WND GST BELLE PLAINE 41.90N 92.27W
09/18/2007 M60 MPH BENTON IA EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTED BY EMA OFFICE.


&&

$$

ELLIOTT

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KDMX [182304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 182304
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
604 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG CORYDON 40.76N 93.32W
09/18/2007 WAYNE IA EMERGENCY MNGR

4 FOOT DIAMETER TREE UPROOTED...ALONG WITH SEVERAL 10 TO
20 INCH TREE LIMBS...WHICH INCLUDED MANY HARD WOOD TREES
DOWN IN THE TOWN OF CORYDON. ONE HOUSE HAD SEVERAL
SHINGLES AND A HALF SHEET OF PLYWOOD BLOWN OFF AT THE
CHIMNEY. ONE LARGE TREE DOWN ON ROOF OF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CORYDON.


&&

$$

PODRAZIK

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KDMX [182300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 182300
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
559 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NW MONTEZUMA 41.60N 92.55W
09/18/2007 M69 MPH POWESHIEK IA TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED WIND GUST CAUSING TREE LIMB DAMAGE


&&

$$

RDONAVON

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KOAX [182250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 182250
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
550 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 PM HAIL 6 SW MILFORD 40.71N 97.13W
09/18/2007 E0.75 INCH SEWARD NE PUBLIC


&&

$$

SK

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KGID [182248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 182248
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM HEAVY RAIN CENTRAL CITY 41.11N 98.00W
09/18/2007 M1.22 INCH MERRICK NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL...BUT MOST FELL IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.

0520 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 E GENEVA 40.53N 97.53W
09/18/2007 FILLMORE NE EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE REPORT FROM THE PUBLIC. ONE REPORT FROM THE EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT TEAM.

0520 PM HEAVY RAIN YORK 40.87N 97.60W
09/18/2007 E1.50 INCH YORK NE PUBLIC

ESTIMATED ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IN THE YORK
AREA.


&&

$$

NWS

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KDMX [182228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 182228
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
528 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0447 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E HUMESTON 40.86N 93.40W
09/18/2007 WAYNE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE 20 INCH DIAMETER ASH TREE SPLIT IN HALF...ALONG
WITH SEVERAL OTHER LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN IN THE TOWN OF
CAMBRIA...INCLUDING ONE 18 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB.


&&

$$

PODRAZIK

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KGID [182227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 182227
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
527 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HEAVY RAIN YORK 40.87N 97.60W
09/18/2007 E1.50 INCH YORK NE PUBLIC

ESTIMATED ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IN THE YORK
AREA.


&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [182226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 182226
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
526 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 E GENEVA 40.53N 97.53W
09/18/2007 FILLMORE NE EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE REPORT FROM THE PUBLIC. ONE REPORT FROM THE EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT TEAM.


&&

$$

NWS

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KDMX [182219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 182219
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
519 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TSTM WND DMG CORYDON 40.76N 93.32W
09/18/2007 WAYNE IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREES OVER ROAD IN SOUTH CORYDON. BEING CLEARED BY
BACKHOE.


&&

$$

COGIL

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KMPX [182212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 182212
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
512 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM TSTM WND DMG UPSALA 45.81N 94.57W
09/17/2007 MORRISON MN PUBLIC

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS FROM UPSALA HIGH SCHOOL. ONE
TREE ESTIMATED DIAMETER OF 20-24 INCHES.

0930 PM TSTM WND DMG UPSALA 45.81N 94.57W
09/17/2007 MORRISON MN PUBLIC

DAMAGE OCCURRED AT UPSALA HIGH SCHOOL...ROOF VENT BLOWN
OFF...POWER OUTAGE...12X4 FOOT PLEXIGLASS SHEET RIPPED

OFF GREENHOUSE...METAL GATE PULLED LOOSE. TIME ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

MCS

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KGID [182203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 182203
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
503 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM HEAVY RAIN CENTRAL CITY 41.11N 98.00W
09/18/2007 M1.22 INCH MERRICK NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL...BUT MOST FELL IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.


&&

$$

NWS

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KDMX [182147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 182147
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
447 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM TSTM WND GST CORYDON 40.76N 93.32W
09/18/2007 M69 MPH WAYNE IA MESONET

FROM KCCI TV SCHOOLNET.


&&

$$

COGIL

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KOUN [182057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 182057
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
357 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HAIL 7 NNW DUNDEE 33.82N 98.95W
09/18/2007 E0.88 INCH ARCHER TX CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

TY/AJL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1980

ACUS11 KWNS 182044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182043
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-182245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NWRN MO...SRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182043Z - 182245Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS ERN KS/NWRN MO WITHIN DEEP MOIST
PLUME AND LIKELY AIDED BY SUBTLE LEAD WAVE ALOFT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HAVE BEEN MEASURED WITH GPS SENSORS INDICATING IN
EXCESS OF 1.80 INCHES. ALTHOUGH SHEAR VECTORS ARE NEARLY PARALLEL TO
CURRENT STORM ORIENTATION...ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
EWD INTO A RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS. GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS DOWNSTREAM...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
HAIL THREAT MAY DECREASE WITH TIME AS MOST UNSTABLE AIR GETS
OVERTURNED AND STORMS BECOME UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW.

.JEWELL.. 09/18/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP...

38949325 38259407 38219473 38319522 38669528 39829449
40899404 41899329 42229255 42229177 41969109 41509097
40199175

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KTOP [182025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 182025
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E OLPE 38.26N 96.09W
09/18/2007 E60.00 MPH LYON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCH DIAMETER LIVE TREE LIMBS DOWN. POWER OUT.


&&

$$

EK

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KCHS [182024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 182024
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM RIP CURRENTS FRIPP ISLAND 32.32N 80.47W
09/17/2007 BEAUFORT SC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FRIPP ISLAND FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED 1 RIP CURRENT ABOUT
25 YARDS WIDE BETWEEN 330 PM AND 4 PM ALONG THE BEACH AT
FRIPP.


&&

$$

DPB

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KMFL [182021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 182021
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
421 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM WATER SPOUT 12 SW NAPLES 26.02N 81.94W
09/18/2007 GMZ656 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTERS AT THE NAPLES PIER SPOTTED A WATERSPOUT
SOUTHWEST OF THE CITY


&&

$$

TINGLER

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KEAX [182020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 182020
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL CLARKSDALE 39.81N 94.55W
09/18/2007 E1.00 INCH DEKALB MO LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

GAMIS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 182002
SWODY1
SPC AC 182000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY MEAN WRN TROUGH AND
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGING FROM VICINITY TX COAST NEWD ACROSS NRN NEW
ENGLAND. CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GEN
THUNDER POTENTIAL OVER THAT REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FARTHER NW...SEVERAL SMALL VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE PHASED AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER BLACK HILLS
AND CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH SHOULD LIFT NEWD AND
DEAMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TONIGHT... REACHING PORTIONS MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY BY 19/12Z. SERIES OF INITIALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS AND SPEED MAXIMA OVER WRN BC AND ADJACENT PACIFIC ARE
FCST TO CONTINUE PHASING AND DIGGING SSEWD THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...LEADING TO CLOSED LOW OVER SWRN WA/NWRN ORE BY 19/12Z.

AT SFC...WAVY COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NRN MN SWWD ACROSS SERN
SD...S-CENTRAL/SWRN NEB...NWRN KS...E-CENTRAL CO. WEAK LOW HAS BEEN
ANALYZED JUST S FRONT FOR A COUPLE HOURS...NEAR HLC...AND SHOULD BE
OVERTAKEN/APPENDED WITH FRONTAL ZONE SHORTLY. CO PORTION OF FRONT
SHOULD STALL THIS EVENING. FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS MN AND
INTO WRN IA...WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO MORE OF NRN KS. DRYLINE
-- INITIALLY INTERSECTING FRONT OVER NWRN KS -- IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER OK/TX PANHANDLE AND WRN KS...WITH MINOR OSCILLATIONS
POSSIBLE BEFORE SLGT NOCTURNAL RETREAT.

..CENTRAL PLAINS...
INITIAL CLOUD/PRECIP BAND FROM SW OK TO WRN LS IS OCCURRING IN BELT
OF LOW LEVEL WAA...SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT...AND FAVORABLE
MOISTURE WITH GPS INDICATED PW 1.5-2 INCH IN NARROW PLUME. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL LOW
PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY AND WI...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN
CLUSTERS AND SMALL BANDS. SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKNESS
OF LAPSE RATES AND BY LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING.

BEHIND INITIAL BAND...PRIND LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN IN
BOTH LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS...RELATED TO REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
INSOLATION AND MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION FROM DPVA.
MEANWHILE...FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL PERSIST WITH SFC DEW POINTS
MID-UPPER 60S OVER KS/NEB...WITH NARROW BAND OF 70S FROM CENTRAL KS
TO OK. THESE FACTORS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING BUOYANCY --
E.G. MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG -- AND WEAKENING SBCINH FROM
CENTRAL/NERN NEB SSWWD ACROSS WRN KS. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
TSTMS INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE AND ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE...WITH
SUPERCELL EVOLUTION POSSIBLE IN ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED
ACTIVITY. DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL EACH ARE POSSIBLE.
GREATEST JUXTAPOSITION OF BUOYANCY AND SHEAR DURING REST OF
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN OVER S-CENTRAL NEB INTO NRN KS...WHERE 45-55
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE EVIDENT IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY REMAIN RATHER SMALL GIVE SWLY SFC
WINDS AND RELATED LACK OF MORE ROBUST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER 03Z AND MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
IA/NWRN MO...SVR PROBABILITIES DIMINISHING WITH TIME DUE TO
WEAKENING INSTABILITY.

.EDWARDS.. 09/18/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1979

ACUS11 KWNS 181917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181916
KSZ000-NEZ000-182045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1979
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181916Z - 182045Z

SEVERE THREAT SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MCD AREA MAY REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AHEAD OF DRYLINE/TROUGH WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. HEATING OF THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER -- BEHIND
AREA OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHIFTING INTO ERN KS/ERN NEB -- HAS
RESULTED IN AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS NEB WHILE THE DRYLINE/TROUGH
SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD...AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE CROSSING NERN CO.
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL UVV INVOF THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME HINTS AT DEEPER CU DEVELOPMENT
INVOF THIS BOUNDARY ARE BECOMING EVIDENT...WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS PER AREA PROFILERS SUGGEST A
THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS INTENSIFY/ACQUIRE
ROTATION.

.GOSS.. 09/18/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

40589957 40869907 40979824 40079739 39009770 37639857
37559988 39429957

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KOAX [181738]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KOAX 181738
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1107 PM TSTM WND GST NORFOLK 42.03N 97.42W
09/17/2007 M76.00 MPH MADISON NE ASOS

VERIFIED BY THE KARL STEFAN MEMORIAL AIRPORT AUTHORITY.


&&

$$

JEKLISH

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KOAX [181737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 181737
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1107 PM TSTM WND GST NORFOLK 42.03N 97.42W
09/17/2007 E76 MPH MADISON NE ASOS

VERIFIED BY THE KARL STEFAN MEMORIAL AIRPORT AUTHORITY.


&&

$$

JEKLISH

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181731
SWODY2
SPC AC 181729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
TROUGHING OVER W COAST STATES...AND POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM
NWRN GULF TO NEW ENGLAND. UPPER LOW -- NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FL
-- IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY OVER FL PENINSULA THROUGH MOST
OF PERIOD BEFORE MOVING GENERALLY WWD IN PHASE WITH LOW LEVEL
TROPICAL WAVE. INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED MANIFESTATION OF MID-UPPER
LOW AT SFC IS PROGGED BY MANY OPERATIONAL/SREF GUIDANCE PACKAGES.
REF NHC TROPICAL OUTLOOK -- WMO HEADER ABNT20 KNHC -- FOR ADDITIONAL
DISCUSSION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM POTENTIAL OVER FL.
FARTHER NW...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PLAINS -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
NRN ONT EARLY IN PERIOD.

SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS AND SPEED MAXIMA -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES BETWEEN
SEA AND SWRN YUKON -- ARE FCST TO PHASE AND DIG SSEWD THROUGH DAY-2.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CLOSED LOW BY 19/12Z CENTERED INVOF
PDX/AST...MOVING SWD OVER COAST RANGES AND ACROSS NWRN CA BY END OF
PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER NRN ROCKIES
AND NRN GREAT BASIN REGIONS. BENEATH SWLY FLOW ALOFT...LEESIDE
PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD OCCUR FROM ERN CO NWD ACROSS WY/NEB BORDER
REGION. COLD FRONT -- NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...SERN SD AND NWRN MN -- SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER
LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE LIFTING NWD ACROSS NRN KS AND WRN NEB
AS WARM FRONT. ERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EWD OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...REACHING SERN ONT...SRN INDIANA AND SRN IL BY
20/12Z.

..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONTAL
ZONE -- PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BETWEEN OH AND
NWRN KS/SERN NEB REGION. PRIND VERTICAL SHEAR...LAPSE RATES AND
PEAK AFTERNOON SBCAPE EACH WILL INCREASE WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR...SUCH THAT AT LEAST CONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES ARE
WARRANTED OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

ALONG AND N OF NWRN KS/WRN NEB FRONTAL SEGMENT...BACKED/ELY BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND COMPONENT WILL ADVECT FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
REGION...AS WELL AS ENHANCE BOTH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR VECTORS. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES...AND 0-1
KM SRH 150-200 J/KG...ARE POSSIBLE. MAIN CAVEAT APPEARS TO BE
DEGREE OF THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT ABOVE SFC...WITH STRONG ELEVATED
MIXED-LAYER AIR MASS CAUSING ROBUST CAPPING. ADDITIONALLY...STABLE
LAYER INVOF 400-500 MB -- OBSERVED IN 18/12Z RAOBS FROM CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SWWD ACROSS NM/AZ -- IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED OVER THIS
REGION PER WRF/NAM-KF FCST SOUNDINGS...REDUCING MID-UPPER LEVEL
BUOYANCY. ANY TSTM DEVELOPING INVOF THIS SEGMENT OF FRONT MAY
ROTATE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS...HOWEVER COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATLY LIMITED BY CINH.

..NRN PLAINS...AFTER 20/00Z...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER DARK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. STRONG/ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT MOST OF PERIOD IN REGIME OF LEE-SIDE PRESSURE/HEIGHT
FALLS...WHILE NARROW PLUME OF AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE
RETURN WILL OCCUR AFTER ABOUT 20/03Z OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
REDUCTION OF ELEVATED MUCINH...MAY LEAD TO PROGRESSIVELY MORE
PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY BOOSTED TO LFC WITH TIME. MODIFIED NAM-KF
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS WRN DAKOTAS AND/OR ERN MT FROM APPROXIMATELY 20/06Z
ONWARD...AMIDST 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS IN
QUESTION...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING VERY LITTLE EXCEPT OVER WRN
SD AND PERHAPS NERN MT.

.EDWARDS.. 09/18/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181638
SWODY1
SPC AC 181635

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
CENTRAL KS TO SE NEB...

..IA/MN/WI TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CO WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD IA/MN BY
TONIGHT AS A LARGER UPSTREAM WAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PAC NW
COAST...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES EWD TO THE
IMMEDIATE N OF THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. TRAILING THIS CYCLONE...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEB/IA/MN/WI BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE ERN CO SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN A BELT FROM SW OK TO SE MN AND NW WI.
THESE LEAD SYSTEMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS
AND RAINFALL ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...WHICH WILL TEND TO
LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING FROM WRN/NRN IA
ACROSS MN/WRN WI TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE 40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 800-500 MB
LAYER...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...BUT THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT FROM IA TO WI. STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SERN FRINGE OF THE CLOUD BAND...FROM
NW MO ACROSS SRN/ERN IA INTO SW WI. THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE JUST E OF
THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...THOUGH STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THE BELT OF STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PROMOTE A FEW
STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..CENTRAL KS/S CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON...
THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL WAVE OVER ERN CO WILL TRAVERSE WRN/CENTRAL KS
AND NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DRIFTS SEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS WRN KS. W OF THE INITIAL CLOUD/RAIN BAND...EXPECT STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO
AREAS FARTHER NE. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1500-2000 J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE CLOUD BAND AND
THE DRYLINE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
FROM THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION SWD ALONG THE
DRYLINE...ROUGHLY ALONG AND E OF A DDC TO EAR LINE AROUND 20-21Z.
THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL WEAKEN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE
PRIMARY LLJ SHIFTS WELL NE OF KS...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WHILE SPREADING NEWD FROM KS INTO IA...THOUGH WEAKENING INSTABILITY
AND VERTICAL SHEAR BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
BY 03Z.

.THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 09/18/2007

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KCHS [181526]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 181526
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1126 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM HIGH SURF HUNTING ISLAND 32.38N 80.44W
09/18/2007 BEAUFORT SC PARK/FOREST SRVC

STATE PARK PERSONNEL REPORTS A CONTINUATION OF MINOR
EROSION AT VARIOUS PLACES ALONG THE BEACH.

1120 AM HIGH SURF TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
09/18/2007 CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

LOCAL SURF SHOP REPORTS 4 TO 5 FOOT BREAKERS.


&&

$$

33

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KTOP [181502]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 181502
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1002 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 S ADA 39.06N 97.89W
09/18/2007 M2.10 INCH OTTAWA KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

RAINFALL MEASURED AT TESCOTT BUT SHERIFF REPORTED WATER
FROM FIELD RUNOFF OVER SOME ROADS AROUND ADA.


&&

$$

BN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181238
SWODY1
SPC AC 181235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...

..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
COMPLEX SCENARIO TODAY AS NEUTRAL TO POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...WITH
ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOIST CONVECTION/CLOUDS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM N-CENTRAL MN
INTO CENTRAL NEB/ERN CO AT 12Z WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH 09Z RUC ANALYZING FRONT FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION
INTO S-CENTRAL NEB BY 21Z.

FAIRLY STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
AND MAINTAIN INFLUX OF LOWER TO MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS. DESPITE
THIS...HEATING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO PERSISTENT AREA OF
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MODELS DEVELOP STEADILY NEWD AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. THIS WILL HINDER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEST MUCAPE MAY STILL SUPPORT
A FEW STRONGER CORES WITH THIS PREFRONTAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
GIVEN 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR UNDER STRONG SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE MID MO/UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEYS IN PROXIMITY TO 40-50 KT LLJ AND 60+ KT SWLY H5
WINDS...SUGGESTING A RELATIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
POCKETS OF HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP.

MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NEARER THE COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF
CLOUD SHIELD WHERE HEATING WILL BE STRONGER. RUC AND NAMKF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WILL OCCUR ACROSS SRN
AND WRN PARTS OF SLGT RISK AREA BY 21Z...LIKELY SUPPORTING THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ENEWD INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH SHEAR VECTORS PARALLELING INITIATING
BOUNDARIES SHOULD FAVOR EVOLUTION INTO SMALL LINES.

.EVANS/BRIGHT.. 09/18/2007

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KICT [181235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 181235
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
735 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0733 AM FLOOD 3 ESE ELLSWORTH 38.72N 98.18W
09/18/2007 ELLSWORTH KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

AVENUE L, A RURAL ROAD BETWEEN ELLSWORTH AND KANOPOLIS,
HAD SOME WATER OVER IT.


&&

$$

KED

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KICT [181105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 181105
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
605 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0602 AM FLOOD 5 N ELLSWORTH 38.81N 98.23W
09/18/2007 ELLSWORTH KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER REPORTED OVER HIGHWAY 14 IN A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN
ELLSWORTH AND I-70.


&&

$$

KED

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180736
SWOD48
SPC AC 180735

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

..DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER S-CNTRL CANADA AND THE N-CNTRL TIER OF
STATES ON FRI/DAY 4 WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EWD INTO ONTARIO BY
SAT/DAY 5. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG
SYSTEM COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON DAY
4. THIS THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO DELINEATE AS A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST...THESE MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT WRN
U.S. CUT OFF LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT NEWD IN MULTIPLE PIECES THROUGH
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES REGION SUN/DAY6 - TUE/DAY 8.
THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS INSTABILITY PRECEEDING SYSTEM COLD FRONT
REMAINS IN QUESTION...THEREFORE NO AREAS WILL BE INCLUDED.

.MEAD.. 09/18/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180612
SWODY3
SPC AC 180611

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
UPPER MS VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES SEWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
AND THE ADJACENT N-CNTRL TIER OF STATES. SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER
SERN MT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER THURSDAY
BEFORE LIFTING MORE NEWD INTO NRN MN AND EVENTUALLY WRN ONTARIO
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT PRECEEDING THIS LOW
WILL CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF MN/WI AND
THE UP OF MI WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS.

..DAKOTAS INTO MN...

CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS /SOME CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/ ARE
FORECAST TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL
ND...DRIVEN LARGELY BY WAA ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT SLY LLJ. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY BECOMING
SURFACE-BASED BY AFTERNOON OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 40-50 KT SLY/SWLY LLJ
AND 45-55 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES.

CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PORTIONS OF MN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SWD/SWWD STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NERN SD.

.MEAD.. 09/18/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 671

WWUS20 KWNS 180603
SEL1
SPC WW 180603
IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-180600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 671
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
103 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 671 ISSUED AT 740 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

IOWA
MINNESOTA
SOUTH DAKOTA

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KDLH [180558]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 180558
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1258 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM HAIL WALKER 47.09N 94.58W
09/17/2007 E0.88 INCH CASS MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

SGOHDE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180556
SWODY1
SPC AC 180554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRACKS NEWD
FROM CO/SRN ROCKIES AT THE START OF DAY 1 TO THE MID MO VALLEY BY
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/NRN
ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
MAINTAIN BAND OF 50-60 KT SWLY FLOW AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO WRN GREAT LAKES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO NRN
NEB WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...WITH SRN EXTENT SHIFTING SWD ACROSS NEB TO NRN KS.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN MN SWWD THROUGH NWRN IA TO SWRN
NEB TOWARD 19/00Z. A SURFACE WAVE...ATTENDANT TO PROGRESSIVE CO/SRN
ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT REACHING EAST CENTRAL MN/NWRN WI BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON...A DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM FRONTAL
INTERSECTION IN SRN NEB/NRN KS SSWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

..CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN EXPANSIVE...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
AT 12Z TODAY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB TO
PARTS OF WRN KS...AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN OK AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ONGOING CONVECTION...THE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR
TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE NWD INTO SRN NEB. HERE...
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY.
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER
ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE S OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD INTO ERN IA TO SWRN/CENTRAL WI...AND ALSO NEWD
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WRN INTO NRN MN.

NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN BANDS OR CLUSTERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE AS UPWARD
FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS NEWD AHEAD OF CO/SRN ROCKIES IMPULSE.
TSTMS MAY RE-INTENSIFY ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF CLOUD SHIELD FROM NERN
KS TO PARTS OF WI AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES NEWD FROM ERN NEB TO UPPER MS VALLEY SHOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY BOWING STRUCTURES...BUT STRENGTH OF SHEAR MAY ALSO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. MEANWHILE...SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION FARTHER S
INTO SRN NEB/KS SUGGESTS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS AND
SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED ACROSS SERN MN INTO WEST
CENTRAL WI ALONG TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AS SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS...A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THIS AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NRN MN...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD...BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.PETERS/BOTHWELL.. 09/18/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180520
SWODY2
SPC AC 180519

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN MT INTO WRN AND CNTRL
ND...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW INITIALLY SITUATED ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS FORECAST
TO DIG SWD INTO CA DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMANATING FROM THIS LOW WILL CONCURRENTLY EJECT NEWD
THROUGH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OCCUR OVER N-CNTRL WY/S-CNTRL MT
WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING EWD INTO SERN MT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS.

..CNTRL/ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS...

CONSIDERABLE AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NAMELY
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS DEVELOPING 40-50 KT SSELY
LLJ ENHANCES THE TRANSPORT OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED...DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF WRN
SD WHERE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /AND RESULTANT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY/ WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO
REMAIN CAPPED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN WHETHER SURFACE-BASED
STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.

A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL EXIST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM PORTIONS OF NERN MT
EWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND. ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
/NAMELY IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER/ ALONG STRONG...SSELY LLJ. THIS
MOISTENING COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY N OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1750 J/KG. MOREOVER...CLOUD BEARING
SHEAR WILL BE QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50 KT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

.MEAD.. 09/18/2007

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